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Anticipating Restructuring in the European Defense Industry

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Anticipating Restructuring in the European Defense Industry ANTICIPATING RESTRUCTURING IN THE EUROPEAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY A study coordinated by BIPE with contributions from: Wilke, Maack & Partners - Wmp Consult (Germany), The Centre for Defence Economics, York University (UK), Institute for Management of Innovation and Technology (Sweden) ZT Konsulting (Poland) Authors: Professor Ola Bergstrom, Mr. Frédéric Bruggeman, Mr. Jerzy Ganczewski, Professor Keith Hartley, Mr. Dominique Sellier, Dr. Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Dr Peter Wilke, Professor Dr. Herbert Wulf The consultant takes full responsibility for the views and the opinion expressed in this report. The report does not necessarily reflects the views of the European Commission for whom it was prepared and by whom it was financed. European Defence Industry Anticipating Restructuring Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................5 I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................9 II. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST DECADE AND PRESENT INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ........................................11 1. Defining the defence industry............................................................................................................................... 11 2. Structure of the EU Defence Industry: the demand side.................................................................................... 12 2.1. Budgets................................................................................................................................................................. 12 2.2. RTD Expenditure trends and international comparison ........................................................................................ 14 2.3. Arms Transfers...................................................................................................................................................... 14 2.4. Market Access....................................................................................................................................................... 16 2.5. Employment .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.6. Skills and age pyramid structure ........................................................................................................................... 21 3. Supply side............................................................................................................................................................. 22 3.1. Major Defence Producers ..................................................................................................................................... 22 3.2. Geographical distribution of EU defence production............................................................................................. 26 3.3. Mergers and Acquisitions...................................................................................................................................... 29 3.4. Public ownership................................................................................................................................................... 36 III. CHALLENGES , RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES ...............................................................................................38 1. The context of defence production and procurement........................................................................................ 38 2. Challenges.............................................................................................................................................................. 39 2.1. National Solutions, Collaboration and Protectionism ............................................................................................ 40 2.2. Summary and Perspectives .................................................................................................................................. 46 IV. THE DEFENCE ECONOMICS PROBLEM ......................................................................................................48 1. A problem of choices............................................................................................................................................. 48 2. Inefficiency in existing EU defence markets ....................................................................................................... 49 3. How to achieve an efficient EU defence industrial policy?................................................................................ 49 4. The possible gains from a more efficient EU defence industrial policy........................................................... 49 The costs of a Single EU Market.................................................................................................................................. 50 5. The future defence firm?....................................................................................................................................... 51 6. Conclusion: the economics dimension ............................................................................................................... 51 V. OUTLOOK FOR ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT ..............................................................................................52 1. Nine steps to scenario building............................................................................................................................ 52 2. Underlying trends .................................................................................................................................................. 54 3. The key stakeholders............................................................................................................................................. 57 4. The structuring variables that will influence the future ..................................................................................... 58 ²©BIPE –March 2008 3 European Defence Industry Anticipating Restructuring 5. Taking into account the objectives of, and relationships between, stakeholders .......................................... 59 6. Four possible scenarios for the future of European defence industries.......................................................... 61 6.1. European procurement convergence and set-up of a voluntary industrial policy, but no anticipation of change.. 62 6.2. Early move to European procurement convergence and set-up of a voluntary industrial policy, with anticipation of change ......................................................................................................................................................................... 64 6.3. National Procurement strategies continue, no anticipation of change .................................................................. 66 6.4. National Procurement strategies continue, change is anticipated ........................................................................ 67 VI. IS THE MONITORING OF RESTRUCTURING POSSIBLE , AND IF SO HOW ?........................................................69 1. A focus on two innovations in the defence industry......................................................................................... 71 I – Anticipation of change in the defence industry: the Thales Case ........................................................................... 71 II – Anticipation of change in the defence industry: The competence shift program at SAAB Microwave Systems in Sweden ........................................................................................................................................................................ 74 2. Anticipation of change in the defence industry: Learning from experience.................................................... 76 I – Anticipatory actions................................................................................................................................................. 76 II - Preventive actions................................................................................................................................................... 81 III - Curative actions ..................................................................................................................................................... 83 IV - Evaluative actions.................................................................................................................................................. 84 3. Recommendations for anticipating change in the defence industry................................................................ 85 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................................................87 1. EU Defence Producers by main segment............................................................................................. 87 2. EU Defence Producers by country, ranked by 2005 turnover ............................................................ 96 3. Portraits of the 10 largest Defence Producers in the EU .................................................................. 105 4. Agenda of the December 13 & 14 Seminar......................................................................................... 113 5. Questions for the Group discussions................................................................................................
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