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The Politics of Southern Asian Ballistic Missiles: Towards a Framework for a Mutual Restraint Regime

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The Politics of Southern Asian Ballistic Missiles: Towards a Framework for a Mutual Restraint Regime Durham E-Theses THE POLITICS OF SOUTHERN ASIAN BALLISTIC MISSILES: TOWARDS A FRAMEWORK FOR A MUTUAL RESTRAINT REGIME KHAN, MUHAMMAD,TAYYEB How to cite: KHAN, MUHAMMAD,TAYYEB (2010) THE POLITICS OF SOUTHERN ASIAN BALLISTIC MISSILES: TOWARDS A FRAMEWORK FOR A MUTUAL RESTRAINT REGIME, Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/519/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 THE POLITICS OF SOUTHERN ASIAN BALLISTIC MISSILES: TOWARDS A FRAMEWORK FOR A MUTUAL RESTRAINT REGIME Muhammad Tayyeb Khan A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Durham University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations PhD in International Relations School of Government & International Affairs Durham University 2010 ABSTRACT Southern Asia is witnessing the rapid proliferation of ballistic missiles in and around the region. This proliferation phenomenon, together with ongoing and enduring conflicts amongst the ―competing parties‖ (China, India and Pakistan) creates a potential surfacing of ―nuclear flashpoint‖ in the region. This research is an endeavour to explore the causes of this nuclear and missile race amongst the Southern Asian powers (China, India, and Pakistan) with the help of the theory of strategic culture. This study proceeds in the following way: it assesses the geo-political forces at work in the region; examines the strategic culture of China, India and Pakistan; traces the motivation of these countries for the strategic weapon programmes and delivery systems; describes their nuclear doctrines and command and control structures; and the current status of their ballistic missile programmes. It then addresses the prospects for Pakistan, India and China to move towards a system of mutual restraint regime, in which international regime theory is discussed as a conceptual framework; cold war models of strategic arms limitation and reduction models are studied and the important role of Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBMs) is identified. The same procedure is then applied in the context of Southern Asian region; problem areas identified with the help of CSBMs tools; and conclusions reached as to the potential to move beyond CSBMs into full restraint regime. The study finds the very nature of the overlapping threat perceptions and the continuance of the unresolved issues and disputes as the main hurdles in the successful restraint models. Recommendations are therefore made for more comprehensive CSBMs leading to a Southern Asian regional version of cold war prototypes of strategic arms limitation and reduction for a more comprehensive and fruitful restraint model, which might then be applied and adhered to at the global level. The study therefore opens new avenues of research and progress in the discipline. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and the foremost, Praise be to Allah, The Lord of the worlds, the infinitely Good, the all merciful and may peace and blessings of Allah SWT be upon the last of His Prophets and messengers Muhammad . It is Allah SWT to whom my perpetual, continual and undying gratitude for His everlasting Guidance, Support and Blessings on me all through my life. The completion of this work is another manifestation of His Graciousness, and Kindness that I could never forget and deny. Second, my parents, my late father Hazrat Maulana Abdul Rashid (May Allah SWT have mercy on him) and my very honourable mother (May Allah SWT bless her with a healthy, long and prosperous life), their prayers were a great moral and spiritual support to me. Third, I would like to express my deepest appreciation and approbation to my Supervisor, adviser and friend Dr. David S. Kerr for the true encouragement, guidance and support he big- heartedly and open-handedly provided me. Fourth, I wish to extend my intimate recognition, credit and respect to all my brothers and sisters (in blood and in law); my colleagues and friends, whose generous material and moral support helped and enabled me to conduct and complete this research work. Lastly, my dear wife, my Daughters Rafi and Dani and my son ‗Zilmaarij‘ for an unflinching support to me during my studies. iii DEDICATION I dedicate my work to the loving memories of my great Father who together with my mother taught me generosity, loyalty, self sacrifice, and content in all whatever we come across in our life. I also dedicate my work to my children Rafi, Dani and Zilmaarij with a wish that they will hold the torch of knowledge high and take it further as ‗Knowledge is the Prophetic inheritance‘. iv CONTENTS Chapter 1 .................................................................................................................................. 12 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 12 1.0. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM ............................................................................. 13 1.1. ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM ................................................................................. 15 1.2. SCOPE OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................. 16 1.3. RESEARCH PARADIGM ............................................................................................ 17 1.4. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY .............................................................. 19 1.5. RESEARCH QUESTIONS OF THE STUDY .............................................................. 20 1.6. TELEOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 21 1.6.1. Asymmetry between the Perceived Importance and Acquired Understanding of the Strategic Culture of China, India and Pakistan................................................................. 21 1.6.2. Complication, Induced by the Strategic Culture of China, India and Pakistan, and the Western Understanding of the Motivations to Acquire Strategic Weapons System and the Nuclear Doctrines of these Countries ......................................................................... 22 1.6.3. Potentials of Using the Super Powers Model for Restraint and Stability Regime in Southern Asia ................................................................................................................... 22 1.7. RESEARCH STRATEGIES ......................................................................................... 23 1.7.1. EPISTEMOLOGY ................................................................................................. 24 1.7.2. ONTOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 26 1.8. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY ............................ 28 1.9. COMPOSITION OF THE STUDY ............................................................................... 29 Part II .................................................................................................................................... 32 1.10. TERMINOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 32 1.10.1. Propulsion Systems .............................................................................................. 33 1.10.2. Guidance Systems ................................................................................................ 34 1.10.3. Re-Entry Vehicle or Warheads ............................................................................. 34 1.10.4. Circular Error Probable (CEP) ............................................................................. 35 v Chapter 2 .................................................................................................................................. 36 THE POLITICS OF BALLISTIC MISSILE PROLIFERATION IN SOUTHERN ASIA – CONTEXTUALISING THE ISSUE ....................................................................................... 36 2.1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 36 Part I ..................................................................................................................................... 37 2.2. INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF SOUTHERN ASIA ...................................................... 37 2.2.1. India vs. Pakistan .................................................................................................... 38 2.2.2. India and China in Southern Asia ........................................................................... 43 2.3. IMPACTS OF THESE DISPUTES ON THE GOVERNMENTS AND PEOPLE ...... 46 2.3.1. Arms Race -Weapons of Mass Destructions and their Delivery Systems .............. 46 2.3.2. Rise of nationalism and extreme ideologies and the war on terror .......................
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