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CRE Research April 2020 CRE Research A Look at Delinquencies Across the Southeast Region of the U.S. Along the stretches of coastal beaches and renowned higher than the national overall rate of 2.07%. attractions for tourists, the Southeast region of the United States also houses many states and cities with broad High CMBS Delinquencies Across West Virginia commercial real estate markets. The Southeast region of and Mississippi the US encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, By state, West Virginia and Mississippi posted the highest Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, delinquency rates in the Southeast region of 21.4% and Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia according to the nonprofit 13.42%, respectively. On a broader scale, these two states American Association of Geographers. The Southeast region were also ranked as two of the three poorest states in America has seen a broad historical shift from traditional industries, based on median household income, unemployment rate, and like textiles, to technology-based industries and associated poverty rate. Mississippi was the only state to post an increase professional services over the past few years. More specifically, in its delinquency rate in the past two years, going from 8.44% the healthcare, education, and tourism industries have seen in March 2018 to 12.83% in March 2020. In comparison, West immense growth in the region over the past few years. Virginia recorded a decrease in its delinquency rate from Although the region only accounted for roughly 20% of the 26.14% in March 2018 to 19.86% in March 2020 and the total nation’s total outstanding loan balance in March 2020, it region saw a decline in the same period, from 6.06% to disproportionately represented 28% of the total delinquent 3.11%. Overall, delinquency rates in the Southeast region have balance. As an entirety, the Southeast region, a composite of generally trended downwards during this time frame, which the South Atlantic and Southeast Central regions, registered aligns with the overall decline in the national US CMBS a delinquency rate of 2.24% in March which was moderately delinquency rate. MAP 1: US CMBS - DELINQUENCY RATES BY REGION (MAR 2020) DLQ Rate 4.08% 0.47% Powered by Bing (Southeast Region states outlined in black) © GeoNames, HERE, MSFT www.trepp.com 1 CRE Research April 2020 CHART 1: SOUTHEAST CMBS - DELINQUENCY RATES (MAR 2018 – MAR 2020) 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 201803 201804 201805 201806 201807 201808 201809 201810 201811 201812 201901 201902 201903 201904 201905 201906 201907 201908 201909 201910 201911 201912 202001 202002 202003 AL FL GA KY MD MS NC SC TN VA WV Total Average Source: Trepp Although West Virginia and Mississippi made up only a Region Delinquency Rates Driven by Smaller MSAs combined 2% of the region’s total CMBS loan balance, they contributed to a disproportionate 11% of the region’s total Of these states, the largest MSAs by CMBS balance in the delinquent balance. In comparison, while Florida held 36% Southeast are Miami, Washington DC, Atlanta, Orlando, of the region’s total CMBS debt, it only accounted for 17% of and Charlotte. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach its total delinquent balance. MSA has a high concentration of lodging loans, and the local economy is driven by tourism, leisure, and shopping. CHART 2: SOUTHEAST CMBS – SHARE OF TOTAL OUTSTANDING BALANCE (MAR 2020) Share of Balance by State Share of Delinquent Balance by State 1% 3% 6% 5% 15% 17% 6% 27% 36% 3% 13% 10% 4% 1% 8% 6% 14% 3% 10% 5% 4% 3% AL FL GA KY MD MS NC SC TN VA WV AL FL GA KY MD MS NC SC TN VA WV Source: Trepp www.trepp.com 2 CRE Research April 2020 The MSA’s strong performance played a large part in keeping billion, respectively. Notable retail companies that hold the region’s broader delinquency rate (2%) low, recording a their headquarters in Florida include retail chain Bealls, fast delinquency rate of 0.38% in February 2020. food chain Burger King, and theme restaurant chain Hard Rock Café. Office loans were the third highest in the region On the other hand, loans in Washington, D.C., which making up a 19% share. By state, Virginia held the largest traditionally register lower delinquency rates, underperformed share of loans collateralized by office properties at $6.3 as the MSA clocked in with a delinquency rate of 3%, in line billion. Notable companies headquartered in Virginia include with the broader average. The Washington, D.C. metro has a bank Capital One, government-sponsored enterprise Freddie high concentration of office loans, and the local economy is Mac, and strategy & consulting firm Accenture. driven by federal government, education, and tourism. Retail loans in the region made up for a disproportionately Fortunately, loans backed by properties in Atlanta, Orlando, larger share of the delinquent loan balance (52%) in line with and Charlotte performed with delinquency rates of 2% and the string of mall closures and the struggling retail market 1%, respectively. Even though the region’s largest MSAs country wide. Conversely, lodging made up just 7% of the performed well, smaller MSAs such as Tuscaloosa, Alabama total delinquent loan balance despite making up a sizable (31%), Tallahassee, Florida (25%), Charleston, and West portion of the total outstanding balance. That discrepancy is Virginia (22%) drove up the region’s overall delinquency rate. driven by the stability of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina’s lodging sectors which recorded delinquency rates below 1%. TABLE 1: SOUTHEAST CMBS – LARGEST MSAS BY CMBS BALANCE (MAR 2020) 2020 First Quarter Issuance Surging LOAN BALANCE DELINQUENCY MSA NAME COUNT (MILLIONS) RATE Southeast securitizations totaled $2.8 billion throughout the Miami-Fort Lauderdale- first three months of 2020, surpassing Q1 2019’s issuance 492 18,984,786,231.99 0.38% West Palm Beach, FL volume of $1.7 billion. This is following a record quarter for Washington-Arlington-Al- issuance in the Q4 of 2019, when issuance volume totaled 393 15,035,354,790.94 3.23% exandria, DC-VA-MD-WV $6.6 billion largely due to the securitization of the $975 million Atlanta-Sandy Springs- Fontainebleau Miami Beach loan. The single-assetloan fully 604 11,359,589,484.44 1.79% Roswell, GA comprises FMBT 2019-FBLU and is backed by a 1,2-million- Orlando-Kissimmee- square-foot lodging resort in Miami, Florida. 210 6,428,896,750.12 0.72% Sanford, FL Overall, total issuance volume for the region was relatively Charlotte-Concord- 212 4,353,415,818.24 1.04% Gastonia, NC-SC flat from 2018 to 2019 with annual issuance at $15.5 billion and $15.2 billion for those two years, respectively. Mall and Offices Driving Delinquency Rates Maturing Loan Performance Loans backed by retail, lodging, and office properties Southeast region loans slated to mature over the next six accounted for over 75% of the region’s total loan balance. months total$207.9 billion, with Florida and Virginia making Of these three sectors, retail was the largest in terms up over 50% ($117 billion) of the total balance. In comparison, of outstanding loan balance (34%), followed by lodging the two states with the highest delinquency rates in the (23%). Florida has the highest retail and lodging CMBS region (Mississippi and West Virginia) made up less than 3 balance out of all Southeast states at $14.2 billion and $12.2 percent of the balance ($6 billion). www.trepp.com 3 CRE Research April 2020 CHART 3: SOUTHEAST CMBS Share of Total Region Outstanding Delinquency Balance by Property Type (Mar 2020) 4% 2% 7% 9% 33% 22% 1% 52% 11% 8% 28% 4% 18% Source: Trepp IN LO MF MU OF OT RT IN LO MF MU OF OT RT CHART 4: SOUTHEAST CMBS – ISSUANCE BY DEAL TYPE $7,000 $6,000 Millions $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Source: Trepp Conduit Large Loan SnglAs set/B orr CHART 5: SOUTHEAST CMBS – LOANS MATURING NEXT 6 MONTHS $70,000 Millions $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Trepp AL FL GA KY MD MS NC SC TN VA WV www.trepp.com 4 CRE Research April 2020 For all loans maturing in the next 6 months, West Virginia loans Outlook topped the board in terms of current credit performance with a weighted-average DSCR (NCF) of 1.96x. This is well above With the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent hotel the regional average of 1.69x, which is surprising given the closings, the region’s lodging sector may bring down its state’s high delinquency rate. Kentucky and Alabama loans overall performance. 22% of the Southeast region’s total followed with respective DSCR’s of 1.83x and 1.89x. The outstanding debt is currently backed by hotel properties. Southeast regional average came in at 1.69x, notably lower In the past, the lodging sector’s low delinquency rates and than the national average of 2.26x. In the coming months, consistent performance have helped cover for the retail there may be increased monitoring of Florida loans given sector’s high delinquency rate (3.4%). the state’s high exposure to the hospitality and tourism segments and the recent pullback on travel.
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