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Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols

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Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols Second Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report 1 2 Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Olivier Boucher (France), David Randall (USA) 5 6 Lead Authors: Paulo Artaxo (Brazil), Christopher Bretherton (USA), Graham Feingold (USA), Piers 7 Forster (UK), Veli-Matti Kerminen (Finland), Yutaka Kondo (Japan), Hong Liao (China), Ulrike Lohmann 8 (Switzerland), Philip Rasch (USA), S. K. Satheesh (India), Steven Sherwood (Australia), Bjorn Stevens 9 (Germany), Xiao-Ye Zhang (China) 10 11 Contributing Authors: Govindswamy Bala (India), Nicolas Bellouin (UK), Angela Benedetti (UK), 12 Sandrine Bony (France), Ken Caldeira (USA), Antony Del Genio (USA), Maria Cristina Facchini (Italy), 13 Mark Flanner (USA), Steven Ghan (USA), Claire Granier (France), Corinna Hoose (Germany), Andy Jones 14 (UK), Makoto Koike (Japan), Ben Kravitz (USA), Ben Laken (Spain), Matthew Lebsock (USA), Natalie 15 Mahowald (USA), Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Colin O'Dowd (Ireland), Alan Robock (USA), Bjørn Samset 16 (Norway), Hauke Schmidt (Germany), Michael Schulz (Norway), Graeme Stephens (USA), Trude 17 Storelvmo (USA), Dave Winker (USA), Matthew Wyant (USA) 18 19 Review Editors: Sandro Fuzzi (Italy), Joyce Penner (USA), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), Claudia 20 Stubenrauch (France) 21 22 Date of Draft: 5 October 2012 23 24 Notes: TSU Compiled Version 25 26 27 Table of Contents 28 29 Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................3 30 7.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................7 31 7.2 Clouds ........................................................................................................................................................8 32 7.2.1 Clouds in the Present-Day Climate System....................................................................................8 33 7.2.2 Cloud Processes ...........................................................................................................................10 34 7.2.3 Parameterization of Clouds in Climate Models...........................................................................13 35 7.2.4 Cloud, Water-Vapour and Lapse Rate Feedbacks.......................................................................15 36 7.2.5 Anthropogenic Sources of Moisture and Cloudiness ...................................................................23 37 7.3 Aerosols ...................................................................................................................................................24 38 7.3.1 Aerosols in the Present-Day Climate System...............................................................................24 39 7.3.2 Aerosol Sources and Processes....................................................................................................26 40 7.3.3 Progresses and Gaps in Understanding Climate Relevant Aerosol Properties...........................28 41 7.3.4 Aerosol-Radiation Interactions (ARI) ..........................................................................................31 42 7.3.5 Aerosol Responses to Climate Change and Feedback.................................................................33 43 7.4 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions....................................................................................................................34 44 7.4.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................34 45 7.4.2 Radiative Forcing due to Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (RFaci) ...................................................37 46 7.4.3 Forcing Associated with Adjustments in Liquid Clouds (AFaci).................................................38 47 7.4.4 Adjustments in Cold Clouds .........................................................................................................40 48 7.4.5 Impact of Cosmic Rays on Aerosols and Clouds..........................................................................42 49 7.5 Radiative Forcing and Adjusted Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols..............................................44 50 7.5.1 Estimates of RF and AF from Aerosol-Radiation Interactions (RFari and AFari) .....................44 51 7.5.2 Estimates of RF and AF from Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (RFaci and AFaci)...........................47 52 7.5.3 Estimates of AF from Combined Aerosol-Radiation and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions 53 (AFari+aci) ..................................................................................................................................48 54 7.6 Links to Precipitation.............................................................................................................................50 55 7.6.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................50 56 7.6.2 The Effects of Global Warming on Large Scale Precipitation Trends ........................................50 57 7.6.3 Radiative Forcing of the Hydrological Cycle ..............................................................................51 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-1 Total pages: 139 Second Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report 1 7.6.4 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions..........................................................................................................52 2 7.6.5 The Physical Basis for Changes in Precipitation Extremes.........................................................53 3 7.7 Solar Radiation Management and Related Techniques......................................................................53 4 7.7.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................53 5 7.7.2 Assessment of Proposed SRM Methods........................................................................................53 6 7.7.3 Climate Response to SRM Methods .............................................................................................56 7 7.7.4 Synthesis.......................................................................................................................................57 8 FAQ 7.1: How do Clouds Affect Climate and Climate Change? ...............................................................58 9 FAQ 7.2: How do Aerosols Affect Climate and Climate Change?.............................................................59 10 FAQ 7.3: Could Geoengineering Counteract Climate Change and What Side Effects Might Occur? ..60 11 References........................................................................................................................................................64 12 Tables.............................................................................................................................................................107 13 Figures ...........................................................................................................................................................111 14 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-2 Total pages: 139 Second Order Draft Chapter 7 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report 1 Executive Summary 2 3 A new framework is used, which separates forcing (instantaneous change in the radiative budget) and 4 rapid adjustments (which modify the radiative budget indirectly through fast atmospheric and surface 5 changes) from feedbacks (which operate through changes in climate variables that are mediated by a 6 change in surface temperature). This framework offers a clear distinction between the traditional concept 7 of radiative forcing (RF) and the relatively new concept of adjusted forcing (AF). For aerosols one can 8 further distinguish forcing processes arising from aerosol-radiation interactions (ari) and aerosol-cloud 9 interactions (aci). [7.1, Figures 7.1 and 7.2] 10 –2 11 Clouds exert an average cooling influence on Earth, of about −17 W m . This is the net result of a –2 12 greenhouse (infrared) warming due mainly to high clouds (about +30 W m ) and a cooling effect from –2 13 reflecting solar radiation contributed by all cloud types (about −47 W m ). This result is not new since AR4, 14 but the important role of clouds in redistributing radiative fluxes vertically within the atmosphere is now 15 better quantified. [7.2.1, 7.2.2, Figure 7.6] 16 17 The net “clear-sky” feedback from water vapour and lapse rate changes together is very likely positive, 1 18 that is, amplifies global climate changes. We estimate a very likely (90%) range for this feedback −2 −1 19 parameter, as traditionally defined, of 1.09 (0.91 to 1.27) W m K . The mean value and spread in climate 20 models are essentially unchanged from AR4, but are now supported by stronger observational evidence and 21 better process understanding of what determines relative humidity distributions. However the traditional 22 view of a weak inherent climate sensitivity boosted by strong positive feedback from water vapour depends 23 on the analysis framework; a valid alternative yields stronger intrinsic sensitivity, with a weak net clear-sky 24 feedback. [7.2.4, Figure 7.8] 25 26 The net radiative feedback due to all cloud types is likely (>66% chance) positive, although a negative 27 feedback (damping global climate changes) is still possible. We assign a very likely range of
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