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WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION to the IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: the PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Final Draft

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WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION to the IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: the PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Final Draft WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail. Note: The final draft Report, dated 7 June 2013, of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" was accepted but not approved in detail by the 12th Session of Working Group I and the 36th Session of the IPCC on 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. It consists of the full scientific and technical assessment undertaken by Working Group I. The Report has to be read in conjunction with the document entitled “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report - Changes to the underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment” to ensure consistency with the approved Summary for Policymakers (IPCC-XXVI/Doc.4) and presented to the Panel at its 36th Session. This document lists the changes necessary to ensure consistency between the full Report and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved line-by-line by Working Group I and accepted by the Panel at the above- mentioned Sessions. Before publication the Report will undergo final copyediting as well as any error correction as necessary, consistent with the IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors. Publication of the Report is foreseen in January 2014. Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material on maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 30 September 2013 WORKING GROUP I – TWELFTH SESSION Stockholm, 23-26 September 2013 WG-I: 12 th /Doc. 2b, CH07 (12.VIII.2013) Agenda Item: 5 ENGLISH ONLY WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR5), CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols - Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment (Submitted by the Co-Chairs of Working Group I) Confidential – This document is being made available in preparation of WGI-12 only and should not be cited, quoted, or distributed NOTE: The Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment is submitted to the Twelfth Session of Working Group I for acceptance. The IPCC at its Thirty-sixth Session (Stockholm, 26 September 2013) will be informed of the actions of the Twelfth Session of Working Group I in this regard. IPCC Secretariat c/o WMO • 7bis, Avenue de la Paix • C.P. 2300 • 1211 Geneva 2 • Switzerland telephone : +41 (0) 22 730 8208 / 54 / 84 • fax : +41 (0) 22 730 8025 / 13 • email : [email protected] • www.ipcc.ch Final Draft (7 June 2013) Chapter 7 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols Coordinating Lead Authors: Olivier Boucher (France), David Randall (USA) Lead Authors: Paulo Artaxo (Brazil), Christopher Bretherton (USA), Graham Feingold (USA), Piers Forster (UK), Veli-Matti Kerminen (Finland), Yutaka Kondo (Japan), Hong Liao (China), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Philip Rasch (USA), S. K. Satheesh (India), Steven Sherwood (Australia), Bjorn Stevens (Germany), Xiao-Ye Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: Govindswamy Bala (India), Nicolas Bellouin (UK), Angela Benedetti (UK), Sandrine Bony (France), Ken Caldeira (USA), Anthony Del Genio (USA), Maria Cristina Facchini (Italy), Mark Flanner (USA), Steven Ghan (USA), Claire Granier (France), Corinna Hoose (Germany), Andy Jones (UK), Makoto Koike (Japan), Ben Kravitz (USA), Benjamin Laken (Spain), Matthew Lebsock (USA), Natalie Mahowald (USA), Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Colin O'Dowd (Ireland), Alan Robock (USA), Bjørn Samset (Norway), Hauke Schmidt (Germany), Michael Schulz (Norway), Graeme Stephens (USA), Philip Stier (UK), Trude Storelvmo (USA), Dave Winker (USA), Matthew Wyant (USA) Review Editors: Sandro Fuzzi (Italy), Joyce Penner (USA), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), Claudia Stubenrauch (France) Date of Draft: 7 June 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 3 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 6 7.1.1 Clouds and Aerosols in the Atmosphere ....................................................................................... 6 7.1.2 Rationale for Assessing Clouds, Aerosols and Their Interactions ................................................ 6 7.1.3 Forcing, Rapid Adjustments, and Feedbacks ................................................................................ 7 7.1.4 Chapter Roadmap ......................................................................................................................... 8 7.2 Clouds ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 7.2.1 Clouds in the Present-Day Climate System ................................................................................... 8 7.2.2 Cloud Process Modelling ............................................................................................................ 11 7.2.3 Parameterization of Clouds in Climate Models .......................................................................... 13 7.2.4 Water-Vapour and Lapse Rate Feedbacks .................................................................................. 16 7.2.5 Cloud Feedbacks and Rapid Adjustments to CO2 ....................................................................... 18 7.2.6 Feedback Synthesis ..................................................................................................................... 23 7.2.7 Anthropogenic Sources of Moisture and Cloudiness .................................................................. 24 7.3 Aerosols .................................................................................................................................................. 25 7.3.1 Aerosols in the Present-Day Climate System .............................................................................. 25 7.3.2 Aerosol Sources and Processes ................................................................................................... 28 7.3.3 Progress and Gaps in Understanding Climate Relevant Aerosol Properties ............................. 30 7.3.4 Aerosol-Radiation Interactions (ARI) ......................................................................................... 33 7.3.5 Aerosol Responses to Climate Change and Feedback ................................................................ 35 7.4 Aerosol-Cloud Interactions .................................................................................................................. 37 7.4.1 Introduction and Overview of Progress since AR4 ..................................................................... 37 7.4.2 Microphysical Underpinnings of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions .................................................... 39 7.4.3 Forcing Associated with Adjustments in Liquid Clouds (ERFaci) .............................................. 40 7.4.4 Adjustments in Cold Clouds ........................................................................................................ 43 7.4.5 Synthesis on Aerosol-Cloud Interactions .................................................................................... 45 7.4.6 Impact of Cosmic Rays on Aerosols and Clouds ......................................................................... 45 7.5 Radiative Forcing and Effective Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols ............................ 47 7.5.1 Introduction and Summary of AR4 .............................................................................................. 47 7.5.2 Estimates of RF and ERF from Aerosol-Radiation Interactions (RFari and ERFari) ................ 47 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-1 Total pages: 147 Final Draft (7 June 2013) Chapter 7 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report 7.5.3 Estimate of ERF from Combined Aerosol-Radiation and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ERFari+aci) .............................................................................................................................. 52 7.5.4 Estimate of ERF from Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Alone (ERFaci) ........................................... 54 7.6 Processes Underlying Precipitation Changes ...................................................................................... 55 7.6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 55 7.6.2 The Effects of Global Warming on Large-Scale Precipitation Trends ....................................... 56 7.6.3 Radiative Forcing of the Hydrological Cycle ............................................................................. 56 7.6.4 Effects of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on Precipitation .............................................................. 57 7.6.5 The Physical Basis for Changes in Precipitation Extremes ........................................................ 58 7.7 Solar Radiation Management and Related Methods ........................................................................
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