Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) Risk assessment template developed under the "Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of risk assessments to tackle priority species and enhance prevention" Contract No 07.0202/2017/763379/ETU/ENV.D.21 Name of organism: Lagocephalus sceleratus (Gmelin, 1789) Photo credit: G. Kondylatos (HCMR) Author(s) of the assessment: Marika Galanidi: Dr, Dokuz Eylul University, Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology, Izmir, Turkey 1 This template is based on the Great Britain non-native species risk assessment scheme (GBNNRA). 1 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) Argyro Zenetos: Dr, Research Director, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece Daniel S. Chapman: Dr, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK Risk Assessment Area: European Union (excluding the outermost regions) and the United Kingdom Peer review 1: Jack Sewell, The Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, United Kingdom Peer review 2: Elena Tricarico, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Firenze, Italy Peer review 3: Wolfgang Rabitsch Environment Agency Austria, Department of Biodiversity and Nature Conservation, Vienna, Austria This risk assessment has been peer-reviewed by two independent experts and discussed during a joint expert workshop. Details on the review and how comments were addressed are available in the final report of the study. Date of completion: 25.10.2018 Positive opinion by the Scientific Forum: 17.11.2020 2 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) Contents RISK SUMMARIES ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 SECTION A – Organism Information and Screening ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 SECTION B – Detailed assessment ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 PROBABILITY OF INTRODUCTION and ENTRY ................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 PROBABILITY OF ESTABLISHMENT ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 PROBABILITY OF SPREAD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 49 ANNEX I Scoring of Likelihoods of Events ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 74 ANNEX II Scoring of Magnitude of Impacts .................................................................................................................................................................................... 76 ANNEX III Scoring of Confidence Levels ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 77 ANNEX IV Ecosystem services classification (CICES V5.1, simplified) and examples ..................................................................................................................... 78 ANNEX V EU Biogeographic Regions and MSFD Subregions .......................................................................................................................................................... 82 ANNEX VI Socio-economic impacts of L. sceleratus in the invaded range (adapted from Galanidi et al., 2018)……………………………………………………………………… 83 ANNEX VII Clinical symptoms and prognosis of Lagocephalus sceleratus intoxication (from Bentur et al., 2008)…………………………………………………………………...98 ANNEX VIII Projection of climatic suitability for Lagocephalus sceleratus establishment (SDM)……………………………………………………………………………………………100 ANNEX IX Question to European Union Aquarium Curators (EUAC) members………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………116 ANNEX X Lagocepahlus sceleratus within Natura2000 sites………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….119 ANNEX XI Data for small scale coastal fisheries of Cyprus for the years 2001 to 2013. Source: Cyprus Department of Fisheries and Marine Research (DFMR) Annual Reports 2001-2013…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..120 3 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) RISK SUMMARIES RESPONSE CONFIDENCE2 COMMENT Summarise Entry3 very likely high Lagocephalus sceleratus entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal, a pathway that is still active and will most likely provide opportunities for additional introductions. The species is already established in the RA area through natural dispersal from the recipient neighbouring countries and is continuously expanding its range throughout the Mediterranean. Further unaided introductions are expected in currently uninvaded regions. The likelihood of new introduction events through escape from public aquaria is considered to be low as the species is currently only displayed in public aquaria located in areas where establishment has already occurred. Summarise Establishment4 Based on eco-physiological requirements and the very likely high distribution modelling, L. sceleratus is considered likely to establish further populations in the Western Mediterranean, with higher probabilities of establishment along the western Italian coast, Sardinia, Corsica and the eastern part of Mediterranean France, and a lower probability of establishment in the Gulf of Lyon and the Spanish Mediterranean coast, where temperatures close to the thermal limits of the species (21-22 °C in June and approximately 16 °C mean annual SST, based on distribution records) offer less favourable conditions both for the survival of the young 2 In a scale of low / medium / high, see Annex III 3 In a scale of very unlikely / unlikely / moderately likely / likely / very likely, see Annex I 4 In a scale of very unlikely / unlikely / moderately likely / likely / very likely, see Annex I 4 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) fish and for prolific spawning. In the Atlantic L. sceleratus is moderately likely to establish only as far north as southern Spain and southern Portugal. By the 2050s, under the both the moderate RCP4.5 and the extreme RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, suitability in the Mediterranean increases and that includes its western parts with previously low suitability, but the model predicts little potential expansion of the suitable region into the Atlantic. Summarise Spread5 rapidly high Lagocephalus sceleratus is a large fish that can reach up to 110cm length and 7kg, has high fecundity, extended early-life (larvae and juveniles) pelagic duration, few predators and competitors and is showing signs of adaptability to temperature conditions cooler than those in its native range. All these characteristics, along with favourable conditions have contributed to the rapid spread of the species throughout most of the Mediterranean Sea. Further spread is expected into currently uninvaded areas as described in the Risk of Establishment summary and population explosions may be triggered by one particularly warm summer. Summarise Impact6 major medium In the East Mediterranean, both inside and outside the (environment) RA area, L. sceleratus has already attained significant densities and constitutes a worrying proportion of the massive ichthyofaunal biomass in shallow waters, based on (socio- low small-scale fisheries catches. It is a voracious predator, economy) with an ontogenetic shift in its diet from crustaceans and small fish to predominantly cephalopod molluscs as the age increases. It is notorious for attacking fish caught in fishers’ nets and destroying the catch. Declines in wild stocks and catches of cephalopods, 5 In a scale of very slowly / slowly / moderately / rapidly / very rapidly 6 In a scale of minimal / minor / moderate / major / massive, see Annex II 5 Study on Invasive Alien Species – Development of Risk Assessments: Final Report (year 2) crustaceans and commercial fish species (e.g. red mullets) at the local scale have been attributed to predation by L. sceleratus and may be anticipated to extend to a larger area, however, due to the poor level of documentation of the existing impacts and the difficulty in disentangling them from other causes such as overfishing, high uncertainty is associated with this assessment. The preference of spawning aggregations for Posidonia oceanica meadows may compromise the functional role of these habitats as nursery and feeding grounds