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Qatar Can Weather the Blockade with Huge Reserves: QCB Governor

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Qatar Can Weather the Blockade with Huge Reserves: QCB Governor OIL PLAN | Page 2 NSE OUTAGE | Page 3 Aramco Sensex hits to spend record; rupee $300bn advances Tuesday, July 11, 2017 Shawwal 17, 1438 AH BMI REPORT: Page 16 Qatar’s consumer GULF TIMES spending expected to BUSINESS expand 3.2% this year Saudi, UAE banks stand to lose if they Qatar can weather the cut financial ties with Qatar: BAML blockade with huge By Santhosh V Perumal Business Reporter Banks in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be “materially impacted” should the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decides to sever financial ties with Qatar, according to Bank of reserves: QCB governor America-Merrill Lynch (BAML). Estimating $35bn (20% of gross domestic product) in Qatar’s Reuters banking sector capital outflows within one year if the GCC Dubai decides to sever financial ties, BAML said “these large holdings would nevertheless directly or indirectly cause material mark- to-market losses to Saudi Arabia and he UAE banks as they atar has $340bn in reserves that could represent 2.5%-5% of banking sector assets.” could help the country to weath- Since the diplomatic stir that started early June, various Qer the isolation by the siege reports suggest that the siege countries may pull out countries, Qatar Central Bank Governor their deposits in Qatari banking system as part of “further HE Sheikh Abdullah bin Saoud al-Thani sanctions”, if Doha did not comply with the 13-point demand said. made by them. “This is the credibility of our system, After the Cairo meeting, which reviewed Qatar’s response to we have enough cash to preserve any... their 13-point demand, the siege countries decided against kind of shock,” he told the CNBC news “further sanctions” and they are expected to meet in Bahrain channel in an interview published early to discuss further strategies. yesterday on its website. Highlighting that Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund’s foreign HE Sheikh Abdullah said the central assets allow it to withstand outflows and defend the peg; bank has $40bn in reserves plus gold, it said conservatively and arbitrarily assuming that 50% of while the Qatar Investment Authority the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) portfolio is liquid, the sovereign wealth fund has $300bn in re- potential GCC claims on the Qatari banking sector ($35bn) serves that it could liquidate. represent 20%-27% share of the QIA liquid foreign assets. “Qatar has already had a good and “A peaceful resolution to the GCC-Qatar crisis is most likely, unique system. We have laws established but de-escalation is likely only gradually,” BAML said, adding against all these kinds of terrorists,” the foreign exchange mismatch in the Qatari banking sector Sheikh Abdullah told CNBC. “We work keeps it vulnerable to an abrupt withdrawal of GCC funding. with the IMF (International Monetary However Qatar Central Bank (QCB) governor HE Sheikh Fund) and other institutions to establish Abdulla bin Saoud al-Thani had said the central bank has our laws and audits and reviews.” sufficient foreign currency reserves to meet all requirements “We have no challenges, we welcome and reaffirmed that liquidity in the banking sector remains those to review all our books, they are strong. open,” he added. Finance Minister HE Ali Sherif al-Emadi had said the country’s Sheikh Abdullah said while the cen- “reserves and investment funds are more than 250% of GDP tral bank has noticed fund outfl ows (gross domestic product), so I don’t think there is any reason from some non-residents, the amounts that people need to be concerned about...” weren’t particularly signifi cant. “Qatar has already had a good and unique system. We have laws established against all these kinds of terrorists,” says HE Sheikh According to Washington-based Institute for International An amount of less than $6bn left Qatar Abdullah. “We work with the IMF and other institutions to establish our laws and audits and reviews.” Finance, Qatar’s fiscal balances may not be majorly over the last month, he said. impacted since 80% of the government revenues came from “There is more coming in,” he said, of the banking sector, that provide them a number of measures such as a planned fl ows out, the country’s banking system hydrocarbons and the country has “ample” financial resources confi rming that infl ows are exceeding with the liquidity,” he said. boost in gas output and new transport has enough buff ers to “meet all the require- and fiscal buffers. outfl ows. He also said the stability of the Qatari routes to weather the crisis. ments,” according to Sheikh Abdullah. It also said Qatar is committed to maintaining its fixed Sheikh Abdullah said there had been riyal, which is pegged to the US dollar, Qatar’s banking sector has some de- “We fi nd our banking sector well- exchange parity with the US dollar and the “pressure” on the an increase of up to $15bn in the fi rst week will “continue for the future.” pendence on foreign funding. Thirty-six capitalised, meeting Basel III as they riyals 12-month forwards rate is expected to be “transitory”. in the usage of central bank’s repo facility Sheikh Abdullah said long-term con- percent of commercial banks’ total liabil- have high liquid assets, plus they have Kamco Research is of the view that the economic blockade by the commercial banks. tracts in the gas and oil sectors were not ities in May were to foreigners, including very good inter-banking activity inside by some of the Gulf neighbours may have only a short-lived “We have enough CDs (certifi cate of seeing any disruptions. others in the six-nation Gulf Coopera- and outside, and they are very stable at impact on Qatar, which is still expected to be the fastest deposits) and Treasury Bills and Treas- Economists say Qatar, the world’s top tion Council (GCC). this moment. So we don’t believe there is growing economy within the GCC in 2017. ury Bonds in the hand — in the asset side liquefi ed natural gas exporter, has taken Should the rift escalate and more money anything to worry about at this moment.” Emirates is said to sack dozens of employees amid streamlining Qatar LNG exports stable Reductions aff ect mid-level, senior of expansion, with challenges ranging from staff in cabin crew, IT the US ban on travellers from predominantly Muslim countries to reduced spending despite illegal siege: Al-Sada Bloomberg power in the region due to low oil prices. Dubai Emirates, which last year posted its first annual profit drop since 2012, has Agencies terday said Qatar’s LNG exports re- streamlined operations, and the company Doha/Istanbul main stable amid ongoing tension Emirates is letting go dozens of employees has hired an outside consultant to assist in between the world’s biggest LNG ex- as the Gulf carrier continues a push to the review, one of the people said. porter and its neighbours. streamline after years of rapid growth, Abu-Dhabi based competitor Etihad Airways E the Minister of Energy and “LNG fl ows remain stable, cargoes according to people with knowledge of the has also cut jobs amid an organisational Industry Dr Mohamed bin are going into the market,” said Steve matter. restructuring, in an eff ort to reduce costs HSaleh al-Sada said the un- Hill, executive vice-president for gas The world’s biggest long-haul airline is fair siege imposed by some neigh- and energy marketing and trading at scaling back senior cabin crew as well as the bouring countries has highlighted Shell, one of the world’s biggest LNG support department workforce including the strength and diversity of Qatar’s traders. administration and IT, according to the economy. “Qatar is a very credible and com- people, who asked not to be identified as the At the opening session of the 22nd petent LNG producer,” Hill said in information isn’t public. World Petroleum Congress (WPC) Istanbul. The cuts at Emirates, which froze hiring last in Istanbul, al-Sada said Qatar’s ex- Al-Sada said Qatar is a trusted summer and hasn’t taken on new crew in ports to Japan, India, South Korea and reliable supplier that guaran- months, began in the last few weeks and Emirates last year posted its fi rst and China forms nearly three quar- tees supplying LNG to its partners aff ect middle and upper-level managers, annual profi t drop since 2012 ters the country’s total exports and for more than 20 years. Qatar’s they said. are not aff ected by the siege, while strategy, he said, led by its wise Dubai-based Emirates said there is no and improve productivity. exports to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and leadership, aims to encourage in- companywide programme to reduce To lift revenue, Emirates has begun charging Bahrain form less than 8% of total vestment in the energy sector, re- headcount. “Recruitment has slowed down for seat selection, added fees for its airport exports, hence the siege’s impact is ferring to Qatar’s announcement as we streamline our operations, introduce lounges and may introduce premium- limited. last week about the increase in the new technologies, and find ways to better economy seats to boost sales amid waning Qatar’s exports of liquefi ed natural LNG production capacity from deploy existing resources internally,” a growth in business class. gas (LNG) to Japan, India, South Ko- 77mn tonnes to 100mn tonnes spokeswoman said in an e-mailed response In a sign that measures taken so far have rea and China have not been aff ected within five to seven years. to questions.
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