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Singapore Strategy – the Road Ahead

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Singapore Strategy – the Road Ahead Equity Research 10 August 2021 Strategy report Carmen Lee Singapore Strategy – Singapore Strategist The road ahead Singapore | Equities Investment summary As Singapore celebrates its 56th birthday, there is growing optimism that the economy is poised to re-open with the easing of restrictions and the resumption of more activities. The focus is clearly on the road ahead. Government measures and initiatives have supported most industries during this challenging period and there were also incentives to encourage companies to digitalize and be part of the country’s smart nation initiatives. Current market valuation of 12.9x is not excessive versus historical average of 13.3x, especially in view of the strong pick up in earnings expected for this year and next. Earnings growth is estimated at an average 14.2% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022. In terms of price-to-book ratio, the STI is currently trading at 1.1x, which is also below the 10-year historical average of 1.21x. As we expect short-term volatility to remain, we prefer a strategy of holding a portfolio of growth and cyclical stocks. Some of our favorites includes Ascendas REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, ComfortDelgro, DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Keppel Corp, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Industrial Trust, NetLink NBN Trust, SATS, Sembcorp Industries, Singapore Telecommunications, Thai Beverage, United Overseas Bank, UOL Group, Venture Corp and Wilmar International. • Keeping focus on the road ahead • Earnings recovery and inexpensive valuations • Recommend holding a portfolio of growth and cyclical stocks Focusing on the future As Singapore celebrates its 56th birthday, there is growing optimism that the economy is poised to re-open with the easing of restrictions and the resumption of more activities. The focus is clearly on the road ahead. Despite recent market rout, the Singapore market has been resilient and was relatively unscathed by recent sell-down in the region – placing the STI as among the better performers in July and YTD. Vaccination rate at 69% As of 8 Aug 2021, about 79% of the population have received at least one dose of vaccination and 69% have completed the full regimen. New vaccination-differentiated measures were also announced recently, leading the way for more controlled easing of restriction measures. While near term volatility remains, the recovery theme is still intact. 1 Equity Research 10 August 2021 Corporate earnings on recovery path Current market valuation of 12.9x is not excessive versus historical average of 13.3x, especially in view of the strong pick up in earnings expected for this year and next. Earnings growth is estimated at an average 14.2% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022. In terms of price-to-book ratio, the STI is currently trading at 1.1x, which is also below the 10-year historical average of 1.21x. Risks remain that the delta variant could pose a major threat to this region. Several countries are on lock down again and this could derail growth. This could in turn result in supply chain disruptions, as seen during the outbreaks of the coronavirus in Asia last year, which affected several key manufacturing hubs. Some of our favourites As we expect short-term volatility to remain, we prefer a strategy of holding a portfolio of growth and cyclical stocks. Some of our favorites includes Ascendas REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, ComfortDelgro, DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Keppel Corp, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Industrial Trust, NetLink NBN Trust, SATS, Sembcorp Industries, Singapore Telecommunications, Thai Beverage, United Overseas Bank, UOL Group, Venture Corp and Wilmar International. Exhibit 1: Singapore stock picks Last done Last YTD Fair Upside Indicated PER Historical Rating (as at 6 Aug 2021) Done (%) Value (%) Div Yield FY1 P/B ($) ($) (%) (x) (x) Ascendas REIT 3.14 5.4 3.83 22.0 5.0 21.4 1.4 BUY CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 2.15 -0.5 2.53 17.7 5.0 20.7 1.0 BUY ComfortDelgro Corp 1.59 -4.8 1.90 19.5 3.5 17.9 1.3 BUY DBS Group Holdings Ltd 31.00 23.8 34.00 9.7 3.8 11.9 NA BUY Keppel Corp Ltd 5.44 1.1 6.33 16.4 3.7 14.6 0.9 BUY Keppel DC REIT 2.60 -7.5 3.19 22.7 3.8 26.0 2.1 BUY Mapletree Industrial Trust 2.96 2.7 3.41 15.2 4.6 21.6 1.6 BUY NetLink NBN Trust 0.98 1.0 1.10 12.8 5.2 37.5 1.4 BUY SATS Ltd 3.99 0.3 4.80 20.3 NA 86.7 2.9 BUY Sembcorp Industries 2.00 17.0 2.50 25.0 2.6 10.8 1.0 BUY Singapore Telecommunications 2.28 -1.3 2.89 26.8 4.4 16.4 1.4 BUY Thai Beverage 0.66 -10.2 0.91 37.9 3.2 15.5 2.8 BUY United Overseas Bank 26.63 17.9 30.50 14.5 4.4 11.4 1.1 BUY UOL Group 7.29 -5.4 8.91 22.2 2.3 18.3 0.6 BUY Venture Corp 19.40 -0.1 22.25 14.7 4.0 16.8 2.2 BUY Wilmar International 4.45 -4.3 6.21 39.6 3.5 13.0 1.1 BUY Source: Bloomberg, Internal estimates 2 Equity Research 10 August 2021 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Keeping our focus on the road ahead… For this year’s National Day 2021 celebration, the theme is “Together, Our Singapore Spirit” and the new song is aptly titled “The Road Ahead”. The song is composed and sang by a group of young talented Singaporeans. The singers are Linying, Sezairi Sezai, Shye-Anne Brown and Shabir Tabare Alam. While the names may not be as popular as Blackpink or Drake, they have also carved their own niches in the music industry. For example, Sezairi’s song “It’s You” has more than 28m streams on Spotify – higher than some of the top regional singers! Based on Spotify’s rate of 0.003 to 0.005 per stream, that is still a decent income of USD84K to USD140k! What is the relevance to the Singapore stock market? For a small economy, both in terms of the equity and the music markets, the pandemic has exerted a huge toll due to movement restrictions and semi-lockdowns. However, the focus on the road ahead is relevant for Singapore in planning for the new norm. With government’s measures and initiatives to support most industries during this challenging period and incentives to encourage selective industries to digitalize and be part of the country’s smart nation initiatives, the outlook is healthy. Singapore was relatively unscathed by recent market rout In July 2021, heightened regulatory uncertainties in China led to massive losses for most Chinese stocks. The MSCI China Index suffered a loss of 14.1% in a month – the second worst month in the last ten years. This in turn hurt the sentiment for emerging markets as shown by the 7% decline in Jul 2021 for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) versus the 1.7% gain for the MSCI World Index (MXWO). With intensifying anti-trust scrutiny and regulatory measures on several big Chinese companies, and together with Beijing’s commitment to ensure income equality and a level playing field, market sentiment in this region has turned cautious as risks of further regulatory measures cannot be discounted. This could potentially impact near to medium term corporate earnings and stock prices. Despite this, Singapore’s STI posted gains of 1.17% in July 2021 - bucking regional market’s downtrends. For the year, the STI is also among some of the markets with double-digit gains (+11.6% as of 6 Aug 2021). Exhibit 2: Regional indices YTD performance Indices Last YTD Target Upside as at 6 Aug 2021 Done Change FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 1,490 -8.4% 1,781 19.6% Hang Seng Index 26,179 -3.9% 35,092 34.0% Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite 6,203 3.8% 7,785 25.5% Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 3,270 13.8% 4,110 25.7% MSCI China 94 -13.0% 138 45.9% Philippines Stock Exchange PSE 6,540 -8.4% 7,780 19.0% S&P BSE SENSEX Index 54,278 13.7% 60,081 10.7% S&P/ASX 200 7,538 14.4% 7,654 1.5% Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 4,922 -5.6% 6,331 28.6% Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 1,522 5.0% 1,812 19.1% Straits Times Index STI 3,177 11.7% 3,602 13.4% Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted 17,526 19.0% 20,777 18.5% Source: Bloomberg 3 Equity Research 10 August 2021 High vaccination rate; controlled lifting of restrictions As of 8 Aug 2021, about 79% of the population have received at least one dose of vaccination and 69% have completed the full regimen. This is just a shade off the government’s target of 70% and allows for the re- opening of Singapore’s economy and the resumption of more indoor and outdoor activities. New vaccination-differentiated measures were also announced recently. With effect from 10 Aug 2021, dine-in will resume and groups of five will be permitted at all F&B outlets if all parties are fully vaccinated. There is also an increase in event size and capacity limits. All these point to further controlled easing of restriction measures in the coming months, especially if vaccination rate hits the next target level of 80%.
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