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Oxford Analytica's Recent Analysis May 2021 An Oxford Analytica Briefing Book Oxford Analytica's recent analysis May 2021 The Oxford Analytica Daily Brief ® © Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved No duplication or transmission is permitted without the written consent of Oxford Analytica Contact us: T +44 1865 261600 (North America 1 800 965 7666) or oxan.to/contact Oxford Analytica Daily Brief ® Oxford Analytica's recent analysis Table of Contents • p.3.....Demographic shifts still impacting political balance - May 11, 2021 • p.4.....‘Finishing line’ of pandemic will vary by country - May 6, 2021 • p.5.....India will be selective in accepting aid - May 5, 2021 • p.9.....Climate talks highlight shortcomings in global efforts - April 26, 2021 © Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved No duplication or transmission is permitted without the written consent of Oxford Analytica 2 Contact us: T +44 1865 261600 (North America 1 800 965 7666) or oxan.to/contact Oxford Analytica Daily Brief ® Oxford Analytica's recent analysis May 11, 2021 Demographic shifts still impacting political balance New data from the 2020 census will be used to reapportion seats in the US House of Representatives between states Source: US Census Population shis between US regions have slowed recently but remain politically important US congressional apportionment after 2022 mid-term elections States' net gains / losses in congressional seats, 1960-2020 Seat change 2020 vote Seat change -1 0 +1 +2 Trump Biden -16 0 +22 AK ME AK ME VT NH VT NH WA MT ND MN WI MI NY MA RI WA MT ND MN WI MI NY MA RI ID WY SD IA IL IN OH PA NJ CT ID WY SD IA IL IN OH PA NJ CT OR NV CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE CA UT NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT NM KS AR TN NC SC DC AZ OK LA MS AL GA AZ OK LA MS AL GA HI TX FL HI TX FL Number of seats reallocated after each census Regional seat allocation since 1930 30 400 South 25 350 20 300 250 15 West 200 10 150 Midwest 100 5 50 Northeast 0 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Although each state has two Senators, seats in the _ Changes to House districts after each census take House of Representatives are apportioned based on a place in two stages and the first, reapportioning seats state’s population, as measured by a national census between states, is now complete. once a decade. The number of House seats was last increased in 1910, when it was set at 435. Since then, _ State legislatures will now redraw the boundaries the average size of each House district has grown to of their House districts to bring each as close as include more than three quarters of a million people. possible to the national average. _ The party controlling each state legislature As the population of the country shifted over the last century, states in the Northeast and Midwest lost House (Republicans have 30, Democrats 18) will redraw the seats to those in the South and West. This process lines to favour their own candidates. is still going on, albeit at a slower pace. Results from _ The process must be completed before the end of the 2020 census will see seven seats move between this year, in time for the 2022 elections, and will states, with New York again losing one and Texas produce some bitter political fights. gaining two. See also: New US census data will drive redistricting -- April 27, 2021 © OxfordOxford Analytica Analytica 2021. 20 2All1 .rights All rights reserved reserved No duplicationduplication or ortransmission transmission is permitted is permitted without without the written the consent written ofconsent Oxford Analyticaof Oxford Analytica 3 Contact us: us: T +44T +44 1865 1865 261600 261600 (North (North America America 1 800 965 1 8007666) 965 or oxan.to/contact 7666) or oxan.to/contact Oxford Analytica Daily Brief ® Oxford Analytica's recent analysis May 6, 2021 Red: High COVID-19 mortality risk without NPIs ‘Finishing line’ of pandemic willOrange: vary Significant byCOVID-19 country mortality risk without NPIs Green: Low COVID-19 mortality risk without NPIs With Israel showing what life is like after widespreadNon-Pharmaceutical Interventions vaccination (NPIs). against COVID-19, the question is who will be next UN World Population Prospects 2019, PopulationPyramid Prospects 2019, Population UN World in Data, Health Organization, Our World Bank, World Sources: World Potential speed of exit from the pandemic phase of COVID-19 by country Median age of Mortality risk without social distancing measures population vs share High Signicant Low of population 15 15 Niger Niger: 4% of vaccinated with its population is over 60 first dose Zambia Cameroon Zimbabwe World Bank 20 20 income bands Namibia High-income Upper-middle-income Jordan Lower-middle-income 25 25 Low-income Bolivia Mongolia Ecuador South Africa Hospital beds India Mexico Morocco per 10,000 people 30 30 Argentina Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia 130 Bahrain Indonesia Israel Median Turkey Qatar Sri Lanka UAE age Brazil 75 Costa Rica 35 35 Armenia Kuwait 50 Chile Ireland Uruguay 10 Australia and New New Zealand: Zealand China Countries that Australia Norway Russia United States have COVID-19 40 Slovakia Sweden 40 Serbia under control will Belarus Canada be in no hurry to Romania Hungary United Kingdom South Korea roll out vaccines Ukraine Finland France 45 Latvia 45 Bulgaria Croatia Germany Japan Greece Japan: 34% of its population Italy is over 60 50 50 Excludes countries with 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% fewer than 1 million inhabitants Share of population vaccinated with rst dose The most influential factor in COVID-19 mortality is _ Even if countries vaccinate all their vulnerable and age. Once the majority of the vulnerable populations, older cohorts, they will probably still see localised including those over the ages of 50-60, are immunised, COVID-19 outbreaks. hospitalisations and deaths plummet. This allows the relaxation of strict social distancing measures. The _ Countries with low health sector capacity would speed with which countries reach this point will vary, need to vaccinate a higher proportion of individuals. depending on the number of older and vulnerable _ If COVID-19 variants lower the effectiveness of people each country has, its healthcare capacity, ability vaccines, they could derail current trajectories. to access vaccines, how fast it rolls them out and whom it prioritises for them. _ COVID-19 looks set to become endemic in many countries, raising the chances that consequential new Developed countries can complete vaccine campaigns variants will arise. faster than developing ones, even if they have larger older populations. Even slow starters like Japan could _ Endemicity in certain countries would mean travel advance rapidly once roll-outs gather pace. restrictions stay in place for some time. See also: Vaccine passports will come before global standards -- April 16, 2021 Variants may delay, not derail COVID-19 control -- February 15, 2021 Prospects for COVID-19 in 2021 -- November 19, 2020 © OxfordOxford Analytica Analytica 2021. 20 2All1 .rights All rights reserved reserved No duplicationduplication or ortransmission transmission is permitted is permitted without without the written the consent written ofconsent Oxford Analyticaof Oxford Analytica 4 Contact us: us: T +44T +44 1865 1865 261600 261600 (North (North America America 1 800 965 1 8007666) 965 or oxan.to/contact 7666) or oxan.to/contact Oxford Analytica Daily Brief ® Oxford Analytica's recent analysis India will be selective in accepting aid Wednesday, May 5, 2021 The country is receiving overseas aid as it struggles to contain the second wave of its COVID-19 outbreak India on April 30 received the first items of a USD100mn aid package from the United States, designed to help ease its deepening COVID-19 crisis. In recent years, it has refused foreign aid for disaster relief. In view of its worsening coronavirus outbreak, dozens of countries are now offering supplies Medical aid for India being loaded onto a cargo plane at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (Lewis such as medical oxygen and therapeutics. Joly/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) What next India will be selective about the countries from which it accepts aid. It will reject offers from China, for example, although it will be ready to step up procurement from its strategic rival. More broadly, it will be quick to dismiss suggestions of any formal policy shift on foreign aid, insisting that it is acting simply to plug short-term supply gaps. Subsidiary Impacts ◦ Pharmaceutical imports from China will surge in the immediate term. ◦ As India continues to rein in vaccine exports, its South Asian neighbours will become more reliant on Chinese-made jabs. ◦ Delhi will refuse aid offers from long-standing enemy Islamabad. Analysis India's second wave of COVID-19 infections began in late February. Up to that point, it had registered just over 11 million cases. On April 30, it recorded more than 400,000 new infections -- a pandemic record. Its case tally is now approaching 21 million, with over 226,000 related deaths. 20.7mn India's COVID-19 case tally The official data may understate the actual toll. Several factors have likely contributed to the current crisis, including: • widespread laxity towards social distancing protocols; • 'superspreader' events, such as election rallies and religious festivals; and • highly infectious COVID-19 variants. The last shipment abroad of locally made coronavirus jabs was on April 22 (see INDIA: Vaccine diplomacy brings money and influence - March 18, 2021).
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