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Quinn in Deep Trouble, Dems Favor Madigan

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Quinn in Deep Trouble, Dems Favor Madigan thFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 29, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan Raleigh, N.C. – Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn enters his re-election cycle as the most unpopular governor that PPP has measured, with only a quarter of his state’s voters approving of his job performance and nearly two-thirds disapproving. He starts out as a slight underdog in hypothetical match-ups against three unknown potential Republican challengers, getting no more than 40% of the vote. Should those candidates become better-known, however, Quinn would probably be in perilous position. Quinn trails State Sen. Kirk Dillard by seven points (37-44), and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford by four (39-43), and leads rising star Congressman Aaron Schock by only a point (40-39). But 61-65% of voters have no opinion of the three would-be governors, so they have more to gain than does the incumbent. Democrats would be best served, at least at this point, by nominating popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, of whom 48% have a positive opinion and only 32% a negative one, making her by far the best-liked and the second best-known of six candidates on either side of the aisle, after Quinn. She tops Dillard and Rutherford each by the same nine-point margin (46-37), and Schock by eight (46-38). Doing not much better than Quinn is Bill Daley. He is surprisingly no better-known than the Republicans, but less popular, with a 12-24 favorability spread. He trails Dillard by two points and Rutherford by one, and tops Schock by five, but 25-30% are undecided. Quinn is unpopular with Democratic primary voters (40-43 approval margin), and if he chose to plow ahead with his bid, he would trail Daley head-to-head by three points (37- 34) and Madigan by a whopping 44 (64-20). “Lisa Madigan is the big x factor in this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If she decides to run she’ll be a big favorite but otherwise Republicans should have a decent chance in this contest.” PPP surveyed 500 Illinois voters, including an oversample of 319 usual Democratic primary voters and 303 Republican primary voters, from November 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.4%, +/-5.5% for the Democratic portion, and +/-5.6% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Illinois Survey Results Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were Quinn's job performance? Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Kirk Dillard, who would you vote for? Approve .......................................................... 25% Pat Quinn........................................................ 37% Disapprove...................................................... 64% Kirk Dillard ...................................................... 44% Not sure .......................................................... 11% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 19% of Bill Daley? Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were 12% Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Dan Favorable........................................................ Rutherford, who would you vote for? Unfavorable .................................................... 24% Pat Quinn........................................................ 39% Not sure .......................................................... 64% Dan Rutherford ............................................... 43% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kirk Dillard? Not sure .......................................................... 18% 18% Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were Favorable........................................................ Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Aaron Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Schock, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 65% Pat Quinn........................................................ 40% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Aaron Schock ................................................. 39% of Lisa Madigan? Not sure .......................................................... 21% 48% Favorable........................................................ Q11 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Democrat Bill Daley and Republican Kirk Dillard, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 20% 34% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Bill Daley......................................................... of Dan Rutherford? Kirk Dillard ...................................................... 36% Favorable........................................................ 21% Not sure .......................................................... 30% Unfavorable .................................................... 18% Q12 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were 61% Democrat Bill Daley and Republican Dan Not sure .......................................................... Rutherford, who would you vote for? Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Aaron Schock? Bill Daley......................................................... 37% 38% Favorable........................................................ 18% Dan Rutherford ............................................... 25% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 64% November 26-28, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 500 Illinois voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q13 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Democrat Bill Daley and Republican Aaron somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Schock, who would you vote for? conservative, or very conservative? Bill Daley......................................................... 40% Very liberal...................................................... 10% Aaron Schock ................................................. 35% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 24% Not sure .......................................................... 25% Moderate......................................................... 30% Q14 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were Somewhat conservative.................................. 22% Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Kirk Dillard, who would you vote for? Very conservative ........................................... 14% Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Lisa Madigan .................................................. 46% Woman ........................................................... 57% Kirk Dillard ...................................................... 37% Man................................................................. 43% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, Q15 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were press 2. If you are an independent or identify Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Dan with another party, press 3. Rutherford, who would you vote for? Democrat ........................................................ 45% Lisa Madigan .................................................. 46% Republican...................................................... 30% Dan Rutherford ............................................... 37% Independent/Other.......................................... 25% Not sure .......................................................... 18% Q21 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. Q16 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4. Democrat Lisa Madigan and Republican Aaron Schock, who would you vote for? Hispanic.......................................................... 12% Lisa Madigan .................................................. 46% White .............................................................. 68% Aaron Schock ................................................. 38% African-American ............................................ 13% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Other............................................................... 6% Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3. Barack Obama................................................ 56% 18 to 45........................................................... 39% Mitt Romney.................................................... 39% 46 to 65........................................................... 41% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 4% Older than 65 .................................................. 20% November 26-28, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 500
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