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Geely Auto (175 HK) Equity Research | Consumer Discretionary Feb 9, 2018 Geely Auto (175 HK) Buy (maintained) Sales momentum continues in Jan Target price: HK$33.29 Sales momentum continued in Jan Geely Auto sold 155,089 passenger vehicles in Jan, up 51.1% YoY and 1% MoM, a continuation of its sales momentum following the 4Q17 Chongjing Deng peak season. The company exported 1,054 units during the month, up 6% YoY, similar SFC CE No. BEY953 to the monthly average during 2017 (937 units). Domestic sales came in at 154,035 units. [email protected] +86 20 8757 6482 Continued ramp-up for the Lynk 01 6,173 Lynk 01 units were sold in Jan, as the model continued its ramp-up since launch at the end of Nov last year, with units sales up 2.7% compared with its first sales figure in Dec. We are encouraged by the results, particularly GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited as Jan typically sees low sales. We think Lynk & Co’s 01 model offers fashionable design, 29-30/F, Li Po Chun Chambers 189 Des Voeux Road Central while its MSRP of Rmb155,880 as well as technology from Volvo make it good value for Hong Kong buyers. Production capacity for the brand at its plants in Luqiao and Zhangjiakou is improving, which the company believes will drive sales. We estimate the launch of the Lynk 02 and 03 models will mean the brand can sell ~160,000 units in 2018. Sedan sales up steadily Geely sold 92,114 sedans in Jan, up 48.7% YoY and 7.6% MoM, which is a good start to 2018. The company sold 26,063 New Emgrand models during the month, down 1% YoY but up 4.9% MoM, an encouraging level of growth following the expiry of the sales tax policy for cars with engines of 1.6 liters or less. 15,163 Emgrand GL units were sold, up 48.5% YoY and 7.6% MoM, hitting a new sales high. The model has posted steady monthly growth, averaging 10.7%, and we expect it to be an increasingly important contributor to the company’s sedan segment. Strong SUV segment growth SUV sales, including the contribution from the Lynk 01, rose 69.9% YoY to 85,941 units in Jan. 30,381 Boyue units were sold, up 50.8% YoY, thanks to increased capacity compared with the same period last year, which should continue to drive sales growth this year, in our view. Sales of the Vision-series SUV came in at 33,267 units in Jan, with the Vision SUV/X3/S1 models selling 10,004/10,457/10,303 units respectively. The S1 has seen a particularly strong ramp up, selling over 10,000 units in only its third month after launch – the crossover model has an MSRP of Stock performance Rmb69,900-102,900 and is targeted at younger buyers. Monthly sales of the Emgrand GS topped 20,000 for the first time, with sales of 20,087 in Jan, up 94.4% YoY and 6.6% 250% MoM, indicating the company’s crossover models are received a good market response. 200% 150% Maintain Buy and TP of HK$33.29 2018 will be a key product year for Geely Auto, with 100% a total of seven new models (including two NEV models) from the Geely brand and three 50% from Lynk & Co. We expect these new models, as well as upgraded versions of current 0% major models, to drive strong sales growth of 37% in 2018 to 1.66m units. The stock is currently trading at 9.7x our 2018 EPS estimate, undervalued in our view. We maintain -50% Feb-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 our Buy rating and target price of HK$33.29, based on 15x 2018E P/E, 1SD above its three-year historical average of 12x. Geely Auto Hang Seng Index Risks Monthly sales miss expectations; market downside risk affects the company’s Source: Bloomberg stock. Stock valuation Key data Turnover Net profit EPS EPS YoY P/E Yield BPS P/B ROE Feb 6 (HK$) 22.30 (Rmb m) (Rmb m) (Rmb) (%) (Rmb) (%) Shares in issue (m) 8,972 2015 30,138 2,260 0.257 58 70.3 0.2 2.2 8.1 12.2 Major shareholder Li Shufu (46.2%) 2016 50,027 5,112 0.580 126 35.0 0.4 2.8 6.4 20.4 Market cap (HK$ bn) 200.080 2017E 96,392 10,851 1.209 109 14.9 2.0 3.6 5.0 38.0 3M avg. vol. (m) 50.63 2018E 136,409 16,750 1.867 54 9.7 3.1 4.9 3.7 43.7 52W high/low (HK$) 23.75/3.34 2019E 188,496 25,448 2.836 52 6.4 4.6 3.7 2.7 47.9 Source: Bloomberg Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Company report Feb 9, 2018 Figure 1: Geely Auto key model sales figures Sales unit Jan 2018 Sales YoY % 2017 sales YoY% New Emgrand 26,063 (1.0) 259,872 12.3 Emgrand GL 15,163 48.5 118,711 295.2 Geely Borui 3,293 (18.5) 39,153 (16.8) Geely Boyue 30,381 50.8 279,385 166.3 Emgrand GS 20,087 94.4 150,583 148.8 Sources: Company data, GF Securities Development & Research Center, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Figure 2: Geely Auto sedan monthly sales and growth Figure 3: Geely Auto SUV monthly sales and sales proportion sedan sales (unit, LHS) YTD growth (RHS) SUV sales (unit, LHS) SUV sales proportion (RHS) 100000 45.0% 90000 0.6 90000 40.0% 80000 0.5 80000 35.0% 70000 70000 30.0% 60000 0.4 60000 25.0% 50000 50000 0.3 20.0% 40000 40000 30000 0.2 30000 15.0% 10.0% 20000 20000 0.1 10000 5.0% 10000 0 0.0% 0 0 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jun-16 Jun-17 Oct-16 Oct-17 Apr-16 Apr-17 Jul-16 Jul-17 Feb-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Sep-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Aug-16 Aug-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Mar-17 Mar-16 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jun-16 Jun-17 May-16 May-17 Oct-16 Oct-17 Apr-16 Apr-17 Feb-17 Sep-17 Feb-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Dec-17 Aug-16 Aug-17 Nov-16 Nov-17 Mar-16 Mar-17 May-17 May-16 Sources: Company data, GF Securities Development & Research Center, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Figure 4: Geely Auto annual sales and growth Figure 5: Geely Auto profitability 25 2500 70 23.5 60 22.0 20 20.1 20.5 2000 50 18.2 18.3 40 18.2 15 1500 30 13.9 14.4 20 13.6 13.5 11.7 12.3 1000 10 YoY % 10.9 11.3 10 9.3 9.5 ('000 ('000 units) 0 8.9 9.1 7.5 500 (10) 6.6 (20) 5 0 (30) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Sales volume Sales volume growth 2-Y CAGR sales volume GPM% OPM% NPM% Sources: Company data, GF Securities Development & Research Center, GF Securities (Hong Kong) 2 Company report Feb 9, 2018 Figure 6: Financial statements Income Statement Balance Sheet Year-end Dec 31 (Rmb m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Year-end Dec 31 (Rmb m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue 30,138 53,722 96,392 136,409 188,496 Non-current assets COGS (24,668) (43,880) (76,150) (107,081) (147,027) AFS financial assets 22 22 24 26 29 Gross profit 5,471 9,842 20,242 29,328 41,469 Interest in associates/JV 1,994 1,002 1,102 1,212 1,334 Other income 1,066 1,131 1,358 1,629 1,955 Property, plant and equipment 8,034 10,650 11,689 10,986 10,108 Selling and distribution costs (1,568) (2,503) (4,338) (6,002) (8,105) Intangible assets 5,260 6,462 8,400 10,920 14,197 Administrative expenses (2,176) (2,560) (4,145) (5,866) (8,105) Goodwill 3 7 7 7 7 Other operating expenses (62) (42) (48) (68) (94) Prepaid land lease payments 1,538 2,003 2,203 2,424 2,666 Total operating expenses (2,739) (3,973) (7,173) (10,307) (14,350) Deferred tax assets 94 188 207 228 250 Profit from operations 2,731 5,868 13,069 19,021 27,119 Total non-current assets 16,945 20,334 23,633 25,804 28,590 Finance income 97 85 104 125 150 Current assets Finance costs (103) (116) (127) (146) (168) Inventories 1,226 3,066 5,518 7,174 9,326 Share of (loss)/profit of associates/JV 150 (9) 28 1,183 3,562 Accounts receviables 1,593 1,237 1,856 2,784 4,176 Profit before tax 2,875 6,204 13,075 20,183 30,663 Prepayments and other receivables 3,040 2,939 5,585 8,935 14,296 Taxation (586) (1,034) (2,092) (3,229) (4,906) Notes receivable 10,204 24,864 26,107 27,413 28,783 Profit for the year 2,289 5,170 10,983 16,954 25,757 Financial assets at fair value 17 0 0 0 0 Profit attributable to: Tax recoverable 24 15 12 10 8 Equity holders 2,260 5,112 10,851 16,750 25,448 Cash and cash equivalents 9,167 15,045 26,216 41,833 64,113 Non-controlling interests 28 58 132 203 309 Total current assets 25,348 47,249 65,381 88,239 120,798 Current liabilities Cash Flow Statement Accounts payable 11,133 23,041 29,954 38,940 50,622 Year-end Dec 31 (Rmb m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Notes payable 72 100 189 284 426 Income before taxation 2,875 6,204 13,075 20,183 30,663 Advances from customers 2,299 7,910 8,069 8,230 8,395 Depreciation & amortisation 1,143 1,654 2,151 2,688 3,226 Dividends and other payables 6,610 8,728 9,601 10,561 11,617 Associate adjustment (150) 9 (28) (1,183) (3,562) Non-current borrowings due within one year 0 174 0 0 0 Tax paid (423) (754) (2,092) (3,229) (4,906) Tax payable 335 677 745 819 901 Change in working capital 3,470 1,538 923 1,384 2,076 Total current liabilities 20,449 40,630 48,556 58,833 71,959 Net cash from operating activities 7,409 8,189 9,794 11,434 11,435 Non-current liabilities Capex (1,338) 562 703 878 1,098 Borrowings/Senior notes 1,929 2,068 1,861 1,675 1,508 Investment (2,106) (2,655) (2,655) (2,655) (2,655) Deferred tax liabilities 175 198 257 335 435 Net cash from investment activities (4,534) (2,557) (2,417) (2,241) (2,022) Total non-current liabilities 2,104 2,266 2,119 2,010 1,944 Dividend paid (174) (281) (590) (2,136) (3,350) Net assets 19,740 24,686 38,338 53,200 75,485 Other non-operating (757) 310 700 700 701 Equity Net cash from financing activities (931) 29 110 (1,435) (2,647) Equity attributable to equity holders Change in net cash 1,944 5,810 11,221 15,667 22,330 Issued capital 161 163 163 163 163 Reserves 19,362 24,275 32,989 46,389 66,748 Opening cash and cash equivalents 7,203 9,167 15,045 26,216 41,833 Shareholders' funds 19,524 24,437 33,152 46,552 66,911 Effect of FX, net 20 69 (50) (50) (50) Non-controlling interests 216 249 5,186 6,648 8,574 Closing cash and cash equivalents 9,167 15,045 26,216 41,833 64,113 Total equity
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