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Salvin’s Thalassarche salvini

AlbatrosdeSalvin AlbatrosdeSalvin/Albatrosdefrenteblanca CRITICALLY ENDANGERED ENDANGERED VULNERABLE NEAR THREATENED LEAST CONCERN NOT LISTED Sometimes referred to as GreybackedAlbatross Salvin’s

TAXONOMY Photo©TuiDeRoy,nottobeusedwithoutphotographer’spermission Order Family Diomedeidae CONSERVATION LISTINGS AND PLANS Genus Thalassarche International T.salvini  AgreementontheConservationofand–Annex1 [3] Thalassarche salvini was previously  2009IUCNRedListofThreatenedSpecies–Vulnerable(since2000) [7] considered to be a member of the [8] polytypic species Diomedea cauta  ConventiononMigratorySpeciesAppendixII(as Diomedea cauta ) (Gould1841).Followingthetransfer of D. cauta to the genus  Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Thalassarche [1] , T. salvini was ACT ) [9] elevatedtospecificstatusalongwith − ListedThreatenedSpecies–Endangered(as Thalassarche other taxa in the Shy group, T. cauta salvini ) eremita (Chatham Albatross) and T. − ListedMigratorySpecies cauta (Shy Albatross), which was − ListedMarineSpecies further split into T. cauta and T.  RecoveryPlanforAlbatrossesandPetrels(2001)[10] steadi (Whitecapped Albatross) by  ThreatAbatementPlan2006fortheincidentalcatch(or)of RobertsonandNunn(1998) [2] . This seabirdsduringoceaniclonglinefishingoperations [11] classification has been adopted by  South Australia: National Parks and Wildlife Act 1972 –Vulnerable(as ACAP [3] , BirdLife International [4] , Diomedea cauta salvini ) [12] and several recent handbooks and  Western Australia: Wildlife conservation Act 1950 - Wildlife field guides of Southern Ocean Conservation (Specially Protected Fauna) Notice 2008 (2) – Faunathat seabirds [5,6] . israreorislikelytobecomeextinct [13]

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Chile  NationalPlanofActionforreducingbycatchofseabirdsinlongline(PANAM/)2007 [14]

New Zealand  Wildlife Act 1953 [15]  NewZealandThreatClassificationSystemList2008NationallyVulnerable [16]

South Africa  Sea and Seals Protection Act, 1973 (Act No. 46 of 1973) (SBSPA) [17]  Marine Living Resources Act (Act No. 18 of 1996) :PublicationofPolicyontheManagementofSeals,Seabirds andShorebirds:2007 [18]  NationalPlanofAction(NPOA)forReducingtheIncidentalCatchofSeabirdsinLonglineFisheries2008[19] BREEDING BIOLOGY Thalassarche salvini isacolonial,annualbreedingspecies.EggsarelaidfromlateAugusttoSeptember,hatchingbegins thirdweekofOctober(onSnaresWesternChain)andchicksprobablyfledgeatfourmonthsinMarchApril[5,20,21,22] (Table 1).Theageofreturntocoloniesorageatfistbreedingisunknown,butprobablycomparabletoother Thalassarche species [5] .

Table1. Breeding cycle of T.salvini.

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May At colonies Egg laying Incubating Chick provisioning

BREEDING STATES

Table 2. Distribution of the global T. salvini population among Parties to the Agreement

France New Zealand Breeding pairs * 100% *FormerlybreedingonIlesCrozet

BREEDING SITES Thalassarche salvini isendemictoNewZealand(Table2),breedingonlyonthe BountyIslandsandtheWesternChainofSnaresIslands(Figure1;Table3), although two occupied nests have been reported from The Pyramid in the ChathamIslandsin1995 [23] ,withachickobservedin2006,andonechickon Photo © Tui De Roy, not to be used theFortyFoursin2007(C.J.R.Robertsonin [4] ).Fourbreedingpairshavealso withoutphotographer’spermission beenrecordedonIledesPingouinsintheCrozetarchipelagoin1986[24] .These extremely small, outlying breeding groups are not considered further in this assessment.Thetotalbreedingpopulationwasestimatedtobeapproximately 32,000pairsin1998,with96%ofthepopulationconcentratedontheBounty Islands(Table3).

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Table3 . Estimates of the population size (breeding pairs) for each T.salvini breeding site.

Monitoring Monitoring Annual breeding pairs Breeding site location Jurisdiction Years monitored method accuracy (last census) Bounty Islands 47°42’S,179°30’E NewZealand 1978,1998 B,D Medium 30,752(1998)[25] Snares Islands 40°03’S,166°31’E ToruandRimaIslets, 1976,1984,1996, WesternChain NewZealand 2009 C High 1,195(2009) [22]

Figure1. The location of the two main breeding sites and approximate range of T. salvini with the boundaries of selected Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMO) also shown. Records of T.salvinioff Argentina [26] and one sub-adult on Midway Atoll in the North Pacific also exist [27] but are not shown here . CCAMLR–CommissionfortheConservationofAntarcticMarineLivingResources CCSBTConventionfortheConservationofSouthernBluefinTuna IATTCInterAmericanTropicalTunaCommission ICCATInternationalCommissionfortheConservationofAtlanticTunas IOTCIndianOceanTunaCommission WCPFCWesternandCentralPacificFisheriesCommission

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CONSERVATION LISTINGS AND PLANS FOR THE BREEDING SITES International SnaresIslandsandBountyIslands  UNESCOWorldHeritageList(inscribed1998) [28]

New Zealand SnaresIslandsandBountyIslands  NationalNatureReserve–New Zealand Reserves Act 1977 [29]  Conservationmanagementstrategy:subantarcticislands19982008 [30] POPULATION TRENDS Thecurrentpopulationtrendsatbothislandgroupsareunknownduetolackofadequatecensusdata.AlthoughRobertson andvanTets(1982) [20] estimated76,352breedingpairsontheBountiesin1978comparedto30,752pairsreportedin1997 [25] ,themethodologiesfortheseestimateswerenotdirectlycomparable,andthereforetheextentofanydeclineisuncertain. However,aNovember2004censusofoccupiednestsatProclamationIsland,intheBountygroup,revealed413fewernests (adeclineof13.6%)thanacomparablecensusinNovember1997 [31] . OntheSnares,Miskelly(1984)reported585chicksinFebruary1984 [32] .InNovember1995,507chickswerereportedon ToruIslet,and189nestswitheitherchickoreggonRimaIslet[21] .InOctober2008,828nestswitheggsand70obvious failednestswerecountedonToruIslet,and279nestswitheggsand18obviouslyfailednestsonRimaIslet[22] ,suggesting thatthispopulationmayhavebeenstablebetween1984and2009[22] . Estimates of the pelagic population of T. salvini in the Humboldt Current System between 1980 and 1995, based on generalizedadditivemodels,indicated133,079individuals(95%ConfidenceInterval82,845–183,582)presentinautumn, ofwhich114,448wereestimatedtobeadults [33] . Table4. Summary of population trend data for T.salvini . Current % average Breeding site Trend Years Trend % of population monitoring change per year Bounty Islands No 1978,1997,2004 Declining? [25,31] 100%? Snares Islands No 1984,1996,2009 Stable? [21,22] 100%

Breedingsuccess,recruitmentandsurvivalrateshavenotbeenstudiedinthisspecies(Table5). Table5. Demographic data for T.salviniat each breeding site .

Breeding site Mean breeding success Mean juvenile survival Mean adult survival Bounty Islands Nodata Nodata Nodata Snares Islands Nodata Nodata Nodata

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BREEDING SITES: THREATS Allbreedingsitesof T. salvini areprotectedandarefreeofintroducedpredatorsorotherlandbasedthreats. Table6. Summary of known threats causing population level changes at the single breeding site of T.salvini . Table based on unpublished New Zealand Department of Conservation (DOC) data submitted to the ACAP Breeding Sites Working Group in 2008. Breeding site Human Human Natural Parasite or Habitat loss Predation Contamination disturbance take disaster Pathogen or alteration (alien species) Bounty Islands No No No No No No No Snares Islands No No No No No No No

FORAGING ECOLOGY AND DIET Theforagingecologyanddietof T. salvini havenotbeenexamined.However,asforother Thalassarche species,thedietis likelytoincludemainlyandfishtaxaasindicatedbyfishremainsandbeaksobservedaroundnestsonthe SnaresIslands[32] .Thefeedinghabitsarelikelytobesimilarto T. cauta whichcapturesmostpreyduringtheday bymeans ofsurfaceseizing and occasionallymakingsurfaceplungesorshallowdives [33,34] . Thalassarche salvini occasionallyforage inlargemultispeciesflocks,feedingonsmallschoolingfishforcedtothesurfacebylargersubsurfacepredators [33] . MARINE DISTRIBUTION Current information on the distribution of T. salvini is based mostly on atsea observations and recoveries from fishing vessels.ThecorerangeofthisspeciesextendswesttoAustraliaandeastacrossthePacificOceantothewestcoastof SouthAmerica,whereitwasobservedthroughouttheHumboldtCurrentSystembetween742°S,mostfrequentlyoverthe continentalslope[33] .Therewasalatitudinalshiftnorthinautumn,andsouthwardinspring [33] .Recordsalsoexistfromthe CapeHornregion [35] andthePatagonianShelf [26] . Thalassarche salvini overlapwithfourexistingRegionalFisheriesManagementOrganisations,theWCPFC,CCSBT,IOTC andIATTC(Figure1;Table7).ConsultationsarealsocurrentlyunderwaytoestablishtheSouthPacificRegionalFisheries ManagementOrganisation(SPRFMO)thatwouldcoverbothpelagicanddemersalfisheries(predominantlydiscretehigh seasstocksandthosestockswhichstraddlethehighseasandtheEEZsofcoastalstates)intherangeofthespecies.New Zealand,Chile,andAustraliaaretheprincipalRangeStatesfor T. salvini . Table 7. Summary of the known ACAP Range States, non-ACAP Exclusive Economic Zones and Regional Fisheries Management Organisations that overlap with the marine distribution of T.salvini .

Breeding and feeding Few records - outside Foraging range only range core foraging range Argentina Australia Disputed 1 NewZealand Chile Known ACAP Range States Ecuador Peru SouthAfrica Non-ACAP Exclusive Economic - Zones WCPFC Regional Fisheries Management IATTC CCSBT Organisations 2 IOTC SPRFMO 3 1 A dispute exists between the Governments of Argentina and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning sovereigntyovertheFalklandIslands(IslasMalvinas),SouthGeorgiaandtheSouthSandwichIslands(IslasGeorgiasdelSuryIslas SandwichdelSur)andthesurroundingmaritimeareas. 2SeeFigure1andtextforlistofacronyms 3Notyetinforce

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MARINE THREATS Thalassarche salvini wasthesecondmostcommonalbatrossspecies(after T. steadi )observedkilledinNewZealandfisheriesbetween1998and2004[36] and accountedforapproximately15%ofallalbatrossesreturnedforautopsybetween 1996and2005[37] .Demersallonglinesandtrawlingoperationswereresponsible [36, 37] forthemajorityofthemortalities,mostofwhich were adults . Observer coverageaccountedforlessthan5%ofthetotalfishingeffortinNewZealand waters,nevertheless231individualswereobservedkilledduring19982004 [36] . Limited data indicates that T. salvini are also killed by the pelagic longline Swordfish Xiphias gladius operatingoffthecoastofChile [38] ,withmost birds seen off South America being adults [33] . The species is infrequent in Australianwaters [39] andthereforeisunlikelytooverlapinlargenumberswiththe AustralianEasternTunaandBillfishFishery[40] .

KEY GAPS IN SPECIES ASSESSMENT

Thalassarche salvini is one of the least studied albatross species. Accurate informationonpopulationsizeandtrend,breedingdynamics,survivalratesand dietisvirtuallynonexistent.ThesedatagapsforthisNewZealandendemicwith alimitedbreedingrangeneedtoberedressedasamatterofurgency. Therearealsomajordeficienciesinknowledgeregardingtheatseadistribution ofdifferentageclassesandatdifferentstagesoftheannualcycle.However,a threeyear study of the population size and atsea distribution of the Snares populationbeganinOctober2008whenacountofbreedingpairswascompleted andgeolocatorloggersweredeployedon35breedingbirds[22] .

Agreaterunderstandingofthefishingoperationsandincidentalcaptureofbirds offChileandPeru,wherelargenumbersofbothadultsandjuvenilescongregate, isalsourgentlyrequired.

Photo©TuiDeRoy,nottobeusedwithoutphotographer’spermission

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REFERENCES 1. Nunn,G.B.,Cooper,J.,Jouventin,P.,Robertson, C.J.R., and Robertson, G.G. 1996. Evolutionary relationships among extant albatrosses (Procellariiformes: Diomedeidae) established from complete cytochromeb genesequences .Auk 113 :784801. 2. Robertson, C.J. and Nunn, G.B., 1998. Towards a new for albatrosses , in Albatross biology and conservation , G. Robertson and R. Gales(Eds).SurreyBeatty&Sons:ChippingNorton.1319. 3. ACAP. Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels. http://www.acap.aq . 4. BirdLife International. 2009. Species factsheet: Thalassarche salvini . www.birdlife.org . 5. Brooke,M.,2004. Albatrosses and petrels across the world .Oxford:Oxford UniversityPress.499pp. 6. Onley,D.andScofield,P.,2007. Albatrosses, Petrels and of the World .London:ChristopherHelm.240pp. 7. IUCN. 2009. 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species . www.iucnredlist.org . 8. BonnConvention. Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild . http://www.cms.int/ . 9. Australian Government Environment Protection and Biodiversity ConservationAct.1999. http://www.deh.gov.au/epbc/ . 10. Department of Environment and Heritage. 2001. Recovery Plan for Albatrosses and Giant-Petrels 2001-2005 . http://www.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/publications/recovery/albatros s/index.html . 11. DepartmentofEnvironmentandHeritage.2006. Threat Abatement Plan for the incidental catch (or bycatch) of seabirds during oceanic longline fishing operations http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/tap approved.html . 12. GovernmentofSouthAustralia.2008. National Parks and Wildlife Act 1972. http://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/LZ/C/A/NATIONAL%20PARKS%20AND%2 0WILDLIFE%20ACT%201972.aspx 13. DepartmentofEnvironmentandConservation.2008.WildlifeConservation Act 1950 Wildlife Conservation (Specially Protected Fauna) Notice 2008(2) .Western Australian Government Gazette 134 :34773485. 14. SubsecretaríadePesca,2006. Plan de Acción Nacional para reducir las capturas incidentales de aves en las pesquerías de palangre (PAN- AM/CHILE). 26pp. www.subpesca.cl/mostrararchivo.asp?id=5768 15. New Zealand Government. New Zealand Wildlife Act 1953, No 31 . http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1953/0031/latest/DLM276814.html?s earch=ts_act_wildlife_resel&sr=1 . 16. Miskelly,C.M.,Dowding,J.E.,Elliott,G.P.,Hitchmough,R.A., Powlesland, R.G.,Robertson,H.A.,Sagar,P.M.,Scofield,R.P.,andTaylor,G.A.2008. ConservationstatusofNewZealandbirds,2008 .Notornis 55 :117135. 17. SouthAfricanGovernment.1973. Sea Birds and Seals Protection Act, 1973 (Act No. 46 of 1973). http://www.mcm- deat.gov.za/regulatory/seals_seabirds.html 18. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. South African Government.2007.TheSeaBirdsandSealsProtectionAct,1973(ActNo. 46of1973);PublicationofPolicyontheManagementofSealsSeabirdsand Shorebirds .Government Gazette 510 :3. 19. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 2008. South Africa National Plan of Action for Reducing the Incidental Catch of Seabirds in Longline Fisheries. DepartmentofEnvironmentalAffairsandTourism:Cape Town.32pp. 20. Robertson,C.J.R.andvanTets,G.F.1982.ThestatusofbirdsattheBounty Islands .Notornis 29 :311336. 21. Miskelly, C.M., Sagar, P.M., Tennyson, A.J.D., and Scofield, R.P. 2001. BirdsoftheSnaresIslands,NewZealand .Notornis 48 :140. 22. Carroll,J.,Charteris,M.,andSagar,P.M.2009. Trip report - Snares Western Chain 29 September - 17 October 2008. Unpublished report toSouthland Conservancy,DepartmentofConservation,Invercagill,NewZealand.

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23. Croxall,J.P.andGales,R.,1998. An assessment of the COMPILED BY of albatrosses. ,in Albatross Biology and Conservation ,G.RobertsonandR. Gales(Eds).SurreyBeatty&Sons:Chipping,Norton.4665. WiesławaMisiak ACAPSecretariat 24. Jouventin, P. 1990. Shy albatrosses Diomedea cauta salvini breeding on Island,CrozetArchipelago,IndianOcean . 132 :126. 25. Taylor,G.A.,2000. Action plan for seabird conservation in New Zealand. Part A: threatened seabirds. Threatened Species Occasional Publication No.16.DepartmentofConservation:Wellington. CONTRIBUTORS 26. Seco Pon, J.P., Weinecke, B., and Robertson, G. 2007. First record of PaulSagar Salvin'salbatross( Thalassarche salvini )onthePatagonianShelf .Notornis NationalInstituteofWater&Atmospheric 54 :4951. Research(NIWA),NewZealand. 27. Robertson,C.J.R.2005.Salvin'salbatross( Thalassarche salvini )onMidway Atoll .Notornis 52 :236237. MarkTasker 28. United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organzation. World ViceChair,ACAPAdvisoryCommittee Heritage List . http://whc.unesco.org/en/list . 29. New Zealand Government. 1977. New Zealand Reserves Act 1977 . ACAPBreedingSitesWorkingGroup http://www.legislation.govt.nz/ . Contact:RichardPhillips [email protected] 30. Department of Conservation, 1988. Conservation Management Strategy: Subantarctic Islands 1998-2008. Southland Conservancy Conservation ACAPSeabirdBycatchWorkingGroup Management Planning Series No. 10. Department of Conservation. Contact:BarryBaker Invercagill.114pp. [email protected] 31. De Roy, T. and Amey, J. 2005. Mahalia Bounties/Antipodes expedition, November 2004. UnpublishedreporttoSouthlandConservancy,Department ACAPStatusandTrendsWorkingGroup ofConservation,Invercagill,NewZealand. Contact:RosemaryGales 32. Miskelly,C.M.1984.BirdsoftheWesternChain, SnaresIslands198384 . [email protected] Notornis 31 :209223. 33. Spear,L.B.,Ainley,D.G.,andWebb,S.W.2003. Distribution, abundance ACAPTaxonomyWorkingGroup Contact:MichaelDouble andbehaviourofBuller's,ChathamIslandandSalvin'sAlbatrossesoffChile [email protected] andPeru .Ibis 145 :253269. 34. Hedd,A.andGales,R.2001.Thedietofshyalbatrosses ( Thalassarche BirdLifeInternational, cauta )atAlbatrossIsland,Tasmania .Journal of Zoology 253 :6990. GlobalSeabirdProgramme 35. Arata,J.2003.NewrecordofSalvin'salbatross (Thalassarche salvini) atthe Contact:CleoSmall DiegoRamirezIslands,Chile .Notornis 50 :169171. [email protected] 36. Waugh,S.M.,MacKenzie,D.I.,andFletcher,D. 2008. Seabird bycatch in Maps:FrancesTaylor New Zealand trawl and longline fisheries 19982004. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania 142 :4566.

37. ConservationServicesProgramme,2008. Summary of autopsy reports for seabirds killed and returned from observed New Zealand fisheries: 1 October PHOTOGRAPHS 1996 - 30 September 2005, with specific reference to 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05. DOC Research and Development Series 291. Department of TuiDeRoy Conservation:Wellington.110pp. TheRovingTortoiseWorldwideNature Photography 38. BirdLife Global Seabird Programme, 2008. Albatross Task Force Annual [email protected] Report 2007. RoyalSocietyfortheProtectionofBirds,TheLodge,Sandy, Bedfordshire,UK.:

39. Baker,G.B.,Gales,R.,Hamilton,S.,andWilkinson, V.2002. Albatrosses and petrels in Australia: a review of their conservation and management . 102 :7197. 40. Lawrence,E.,Giannini,F.,Bensley,N.,andCrombie,J.,2009. Estimation of seabird bycatch rates in the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery. Australian GovernmentBureauofRuralSciences:Canberra,Australia.11pp. RECOMMENDED CITATION AgreementontheConservationof AlbatrossesandPetrels.2009.ACAP Speciesassessments:Salvin’sAlbatross Thalassarche salvini .Downloadedfrom http://www.acap.aq on31August2009 .

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GLOSSARY AND NOTES (i) Years . The“splityear” systemisused.Anycount(whetherbreedingpairsorfledglings)madeintheaustral summer (e.g. of 1993/94)isreportedasthesecondhalfofthissplityear(i.e.1994). The only species which present potential problems in this respect are Diomedea albatrosses, which lay in December January,butwhosefledglingsdonotdepartuntilthefollowingOctoberDecember.Inordertokeeprecordsofeachbreeding seasontogether,breedingcountsfrome.g.December1993January1994andproductivitycounts(ofchicks/fledglings)of OctoberDecember1994arereportedas1994. Ifarangeofyearsispresented,itshouldbeassumedthatthemonitoringwascontinuousduringthattime.Iftheyearsof monitoringarediscontinuous,theactualyearsinwhichmonitoringoccurredareindicated.

(ii) Methods Rating Matrix (based on NZ rating system)

METHOD A Countsofnestingadults(Errorsherearedetectionerrors(theprobabilityofnotdetectingadespiteitsbeing presentduringasurvey),the“nestfailureerror”(theprobabilityofnotcountinganestingbirdbecausethenesthadfailed priortothesurvey,orhadnotlaidatthetimeofthesurvey)andsamplingerror). B Countsofchicks(Errorsherearedetectionerror,samplingandnestfailureerror.Thelatterisprobablyharderto estimatelaterinthebreedingseasonthanduringtheincubationperiod,duetothetendencyforeggandchickfailuresto showhighinterannualvariabilitycomparedwithbreedingfrequencywithinaspecies). C Countsofnestsites(Errorsherearedetectionerror,samplingerrorand“occupancyerror”(probabilityofcounting asiteorburrowasactivedespiteit’snotbeingusedfornestingbybirdsduringtheseason). D Aerialphoto (Errors here are detection errors, nestfailure error, occupancy error and sampling error (error associatedwithcountingsitesfromphotographs). E Shiporgroundbasedphoto(Errorsherearedetectionerror,nestfailureerror,occupancyerror,samplingerror and “visual obstruction bias” (the obstruction of nest sites from view from lowangle photos, always underestimating numbers) F Unknown G Countofeggsinsubsamplepopulation H Countofchicksinsubsamplepopulationandextrapolation(chicksxbreedingsuccessnocountofeggs)

RELIABILITY 1 Censuswitherrorsestimated 2 Distancesamplingofrepresentativeportionsofcolonies/siteswitherrorsestimated 3 Surveyofquadratsortransectsofrepresentativeportionsofcolonies/siteswitherrorsestimated 4 Surveyofquadratsortransectswithoutrepresentativesamplingbutwitherrorsestimated 5 Surveyofquadratsortransectswithoutrepresentativesamplingnorerrorsestimated 6 Unknown (iii) Population Survey Accuracy High Within10%ofstatedfigure; Medium Within50%ofstatedfigure; Low Within100%ofstatedfigure(egcoarselyassessedviaareaofoccupancyandassumeddensity) Unknown

(iv) Population Trend TrendanalyseswereruninTRIMsoftwareusingthelineartrendmodelwithstepwiseselectionofchangepoints(missingvalues removed)withserialcorrelationtakenintoaccountbutnotoverdispersion.

(v) Productivity (Breeding Success) Definedasproportionofeggsthatsurvivetochicksat/neartimeoffledgingunlessindicatedotherwise

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(vi) Juvenile Survival definedas: 1 Survivaltofirstreturn/resight; 2 Survivaltoxage(xspecified),or 3 Survivaltorecruitmentintobreedingpopulation 4 Other 5 Unknown (vii) Threats Acombinationofscope(proportionofpopulation)andseverity(intensity)providealevelormagnitudeofthreat.Bothscope andseverityassessnotonlycurrentthreatimpactsbutalsotheanticipatedthreatimpactsoverthenext decade or so, assumingthecontinuationofcurrentconditionsandtrends.

Scope (%populationaffected)

VeryHigh High Medium Low (71100%) (3170%) (1130%) (110%) VeryHigh Very High High Medium Low (71100%) Severity High High High Medium Low (likely%reductionof (3170%) Medium affectedpopulation Medium Medium Medium Low withintenyears) (1130%) Low Low Low Low Low (110%)

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