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Housing Assessment – 4Th Quarter 2017 Downtown Davenport, Iowa

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Housing Assessment – 4Th Quarter 2017 Downtown Davenport, Iowa Housing Assessment – 4th Quarter 2017 Downtown Davenport, Iowa Prepared For: Downtown Davenport Partnership 331 W. 3rd Street Davenport, IA 52801 DiSalvo Development Advisors, LLC | www.DDAdvise.com | 614.260.2501 Quad Cities Regional Apartment Market Background The Quad Cities regional apartment market is strong with high overall occupancy levels among market-rate, affordable and rental-assisted properties. - Survey of 114 apartment properties totaling 11,547 units - Survey represents 70% of all apartment buildings of four or more units Market Characteristics by Occupancy Level 98.0% and Higher: Tight market; inflated rental rates and land prices; many owners less likely to invest in maintenance and upgrades; and lack of available housing alternatives dissuades higher share of renters from moving to area. 95.0% to 97.9%: Most balanced occupancy for developers and renters; moderate level of competitiveness; healthy occupancy level allows sufficient mobility to retain and attract residents; less deferred maintenance and more attention to tenant preferences; and rent concessions are limited. 93.0% to 94.9%: Occupancy still meets most underwriting thresholds for financial institutions and investors; highly competitive environment; some of the least competitive properties reduce rental rates to be in line with market expectations; and presence of some rent concessions. Below 93.0%: Lower occupancy reflecting soft market conditions; less interest in new investment by financial institutions and/or developers; rent concessions more common; property values at a low; and Tax Credit rents at 60% AMI may need adjusting to remain a value in the market. Page | 1 Downtown Davenport – Occupancy Levels Downtown apartment occupancy: 96.7%, slightly down, but remains strong -1.2 percentage points from 1st Quarter 2016 (97.9%) -1.1 percentage points from 2012 survey (97.8%) Market-Rate Survey Participants - 501 Brady - Dorothea Apartments - Perry Hill Apartments - Andresen Flats - Forrest Block - Peterson Paper Lofts - Berg Apartments - Halligan Coffee Company Lofts - Putnam - Christie Park - Hotel Blackhawk - Renwick - City View Apartments - Lafayette Square - Schricker Flats - Crescent Lofts - Market Lofts - Union Arcade - Davenport Hotel - Mississippi Lofts - Wells Fargo - Democrat Lofts - Parker 60% of the Downtown properties are 100.0% occupied - 23 properties surveyed in Downtown totaling 752 market-rate units - 14 properties 100.0% occupied - Two sub-90 percentile properties, older Class C properties, one of which is outside SSMID Downtown Tax Credit properties are 96.8% occupied, but buoyed by Section 8 tenants - Increase of 3.4 percentage points since 2016 - Occupancy increase is a result of the addition of HUD Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher recipients Page | 2 Downtown Davenport – Projected Housing Demand The region’s renter household growth rate is projected to slow over the next five years; however, the City of Davenport is expected to continue to get the lion’s share. - Over the next five years, ESRI, Incorporated projects City of Davenport annual household growth of 140 renters Renter Household Growth: - Future projections take into consideration that pent up demand has been largely accommodated 2010 – 2017: 202/year 2017 – 2022: 140/year Projected demand through 2022 shows a remaining housing deficit of 290 units. Projected Market-Rate Demand through 2022 DDA’s Projected Demand Cumulative Years Annual Average Total Market-Rate Development* Unmet Demand 2013 – 2015 120 360 284 units built, open and occupied 76 units 5th Street Lofts Democrat Lofts Executive Square Halligan Coffee Lofts Market Lofts Peterson Paper Lofts Renwick Building Union Arcade Wells Fargo 2016 – 2017 110 220 59 units built; 195 units under construction 42 units 501 Brady Apartments City Square Lafayette Square Hibernia Hall Gordon-Van Tine/Harborview Lofts Pershing Hills Lofts 2018 – 2022 70 350 102 units planned 290 units Kahl Building Bucktown Lofts Total Units 830 640 units built, under construction/planned 290 units *Does not include Tax Credit units at or below 60% AMI Optimal Development and Build-Out Considerations - The ability to build out to full demand potential will require a variety of rental housing stock, which may include townhome-style units. - The continued development of the same product could result in higher vacancies despite the presence of unmet demand. Page | 3 Downtown Davenport – Projected Housing Demand Demand is limited for additional Low-Income Tax Credit units within the downtown without additional rental assistance. - Slow lease up rates with managers claiming it is more and more difficult to find income-qualified persons, specifically those with incomes up to 60% AMI. - Declining income-qualified base; especially those whose incomes are near 60% of Area Median Income (see highlighted core income band of $25,000 to $34,999). Households By Income (2017-2022) Household Income 2017 2022 Change Less than $15,000 4,523 4,847 324 $15,000 - $24,999 2,683 2,730 47 $25,000 - $34,999 2,499 2,435 -64 $35,000 - $49,999 2,658 2,578 -80 $50,000 - $74,999 2,428 2,593 165 $75,000 - $99,999 942 1,089 147 $100,000 - $149,999 461 574 113 $150,000 or more 163 210 47 Total 16,357 17,056 699 Source: Esri, Incorporated - The high occupancy level among Tax Credit properties is attributed to the city providing many of their tenants with rental assistance, via the Housing Choice Voucher program. None of these voucher recipients have incomes above 50% of area median income. In fact, it is common nationwide for many of these households to have incomes below $15,000. The area could support up to 39 Tax Credit units with project-based housing choice vouchers. - Based on DDA’s assessment of Iowa Finance Authority’s newest scoring system; and - City of Davenport capacity for providing additional Housing Choice Vouchers (49 as of November 2017) - More than 1,500 of the apartment units surveyed were deemed affordable with rent levels below Tax Credit rents. This is a substantial base of affordable market-rate units. However, the quality of most of this low-priced housing is poor. The priority for Tax Credit development within the downtown should be for acquisition and rehabilitation of existing poor quality market-rate housing. The majority of this type of housing in the downtown area is west of Ripley Street. Page | 4 DOWNTOWN HOUSING POTENTIAL Relative to the commercial environment and target market The commercial environment is an important factor in providing a unique lifestyle and attracting persons to live downtown. As the matrix below shows, the number and type of households that would consider living downtown increases when there is a more developed commercial environment. How does your downtown rate? Commercial Target Description of Achievable Rental Lifestyle Rating* Characteristics Market Target Market Housing Rate Often large units and Few retail and food & Smallest target group; appreciates above average unit rent, beverage establishments; Urban Pioneer/ historic urban environ and Poor but rent per square foot is high vacancies; limited Artist attractive architecture; likes raw/ well below market average community services original space (some ownership) - $ Most transient group; affordability Limited retail and food & of housing is the primary concern; beverage; high vacancies; Low-Income often reside in subsidized/public Limited Below market - $ community services and Singles housing; proximity to support public transit available services and public transit is important Affordability important; roommate Moderate level of restaurants Students/ situation common; willing to and bars; modest vacancies Fair Service-Oriented overlook quality and size of Average - $$ in commercial ground floors; Employees apartment to be a downtown limited retail resident Singles and married couples; owners and employees of local Variety of restaurants and businesses; other creative Young bars; coffee shops; galleries; class workers (architects, web Healthy Professionals/ Above Average - $$$ dry cleaners; fitness center; designers, etc.); In county seats, a Entrepreneurs low vacancy rate high share of young professionals are attorneys and government workers Variety of restaurants/ bars; coffee shops; bakery; Represent small share of market; Empty Nester/ Vibrant convenience retail; fitness; need high-end finishings/services Top End of Market - $$$$ Homeowners performing arts; boutique and vibrant lifestyle shops; few vacancies *Ratings based on vacancy status and variety of retail/restaurant, entertainment, and other goods and services. DiSalvo Development Advisors, LLC | www.DDAdvise.com | 614.260.2501 Downtown Davenport – For-Sale Housing Downtown Davenport has established characteristics that support for-sale housing. - High achieved market rents for multiple years - Strong demand by higher-income households who want to live downtown - Continued commercial additions, such as restaurants, music venues and an arcade bar all complement a vibrant urban lifestyle DDA projects demand for 110 to 140 for-sale housing units in Downtown Davenport over the next five years (through 2022). - Owner-occupied housing in buildings of more than five units in the nearby downtown areas of Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Peoria represent 10% to 15% of their renter-occupied housing stock. Applying these ratios to the approximately 1,200 occupied rentals in Downtown or 52801 zip code area yields 120 to 180 total owner-occupied units (note: there are currently 10 owner-occupied
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