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US Flow of Funds US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. September 23, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-663-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents Total Debt 1 Nonfinancial Debt 2-3 Financial Debt 4-6 Total Borrowing 7 Nonfinancial Borrowing 8 Borrowing 9 Nonfinancial Borrowing 10 Corporate Finance 11-12 New Issues of Corporate Securities 13 Corporate Finance 14-20 Mortgage Finance 21-22 Consumer Finance 23-24 US Households: Assets 25 US Household Ratios 26 US Households: Real Estate & Debt 27-29 Public Finance 30-34 Rest of World 35 International Finance 36 September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Total Debt Figure 1. 100.1 100.1 80.1 DEBT 80.1 60.1 (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Q2 60.1 40.1 40.1 20.1 20.1 Total Debt (nsa) (85.0) Nonfinancial Debt (sa) (63.3) Financial Debt (sa) (17.3) yardeni.com .1 .1 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Figure 2. 400 400 US DEBT Q2 (as a percent of nominal GDP) Debt/GDP Total (389.2) Nonfinancial (289.5) 300 Financial (79.2) 300 200 200 100 100 yardeni.com 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. Page 1 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Debt Figure 3. 65 65 US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS Q2 60 (trillion dollars, nsa) 60 55 Nonfinancial Debt 55 50 Total* (62.8) 50 Total Less Treasury (38.5) 45 Treasury (24.3) 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 yardeni.com 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 * Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and US Treasury debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. Figure 4. 300 300 US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS Q2 (as a percent of nominal GDP) 250 Nonfinancial Debt / GDP 250 Total* (287.4) Total Less Treasury (176.0) Treasury (111.3) 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 yardeni.com 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 * Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and government debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States. Page 2 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Debt Figure 5. 40.2 40.2 32.2 DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS 32.2 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 24.2 24.2 16.2 Q2 16.2 8.2 8.2 Business Debt (18.0) US Treasury Debt (24.7) Household Debt (17.3) yardeni.com .2 .2 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Figure 6. 120 120 DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS (as a percent of nominal GDP) 100 Household Debt / GDP (79.3) 100 Business Debt / GDP (82.2) US Treasury Debt / GDP (113.2) 80 Q2 80 60 60 40 40 yardeni.com 20 20 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 3 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financial Debt Figure 7. 35 35 DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS (as a percent of total debt) 30 30 25 Total (20.4) 25 20 Q2 20 15 15 10 10 yardeni.com 5 5 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure 8. 20.4 20.4 18.4 DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS 18.4 16.4 Q2 16.4 14.4 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 14.4 12.4 12.4 10.4 10.4 8.4 Total Financial Debt (17.3) 8.4 Total Securitized Debt* (10.9) 6.4 Total Less Securitized* 6.4 Debt (6.2) 4.4 4.4 2.4 2.4 yardeni.com .4 .4 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 * Sum of government sponsored entreprises, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers. Source: Flow of Funds. Page 4 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financial Debt Figure 9. 76 76 DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS 74 (percent) 74 72 Total Securitized Debt* / 72 Financial Debt (63.8) 70 70 68 68 66 66 64 Q1 64 62 62 60 60 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 52 yardeni.com 50 50 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 * Sum of GSE, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers. Source: Flow of Funds. Figure 10. 8.1 8.1 7.3 CREDIT MARKET DEBT OWED BY FINANCIAL SECTORS* 7.3 6.5 6.5 5.7 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 5.7 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.5 Q1 2.5 1.7 1.7 .9 .9 Agency & GSE-backed Mortgage Pool Securities (2.4) GSE Issues (7.8) Corporate Bonds Issued by Financial Sector (4.5) yardeni.com .1 .1 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 * As a result of two accounting rules, FAS 166 and 167, the assets and liabilities of some special purpose entities (SPEs) have been moved onto the balance sheets of the US chartered commercial bank, government-sponsored enterprise finance company sectors. The consolidated assets and liabilities were removed from the agency and GSE-backed mortgage pool sector and the issuers of asset-backed securities (ABS) sector. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 5 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financial Debt Figure 11. 4 4 CORPORATE BONDS OUTSTANDING (trillion dollars, nsa) Financial Sector 3 3 ABS Issuers (1.1) Commercial Banking (0.2) 2 2 yardeni.com Q1 1 1 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 6 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Total Borrowing Figure 12. 8 8 BORROWING* (trillion dollars) 7 7 6 6 5 Debt (y/y change) 5 Total (4.6) Q2 4 Nonfinancial (3.4) 4 Financial (0.7) 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 yardeni.com -3 -3 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 * Yearly change in debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Figure 13. 40 40 BORROWING* 35 (as a percent of nominal GDP) Debt (y/y change) 35 Total 30 30 Nonfinancial Financial 25 25 20 Q2 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 yardeni.com -20 -20 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 * Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 7 / September 23, 2021 / US Flow of Funds Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Borrowing Figure 14. 8 8 BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS* (trillion dollars) 7 7 Debt (y/y change) 6 Total (3.4) 6 Nonfederal** (1.4) US Treasury (1.9) 5 5 4 4 Q2 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 yardeni.com -1 -1 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 * Yearly change in debt. ** Nonfederal equals Total minus US Treasury. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts. Figure 15. 24 24 BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS* 22 (as a percent of nominal GDP) 22 20 20 Debt (y/y change) 18 US Treasury (9.1) 18 16 Nonfederal** (6.8) 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 Q2 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 yardeni.com -6 -6 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 * Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP.
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