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PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 Foreword Dear Colleagues, It’s our pleasure to welcome you to PSAM10. We hope the conference provides you with ample opportunities for learning and technical discourse. Your attendance directly supports achieving the mission of IAPSAM to provide educational op- portunities, and support the development and advancement of risk assessment methods helping to make the world a safer and more productive place to live. Your contributions are appreciated and valued. This year our program includes 400 papers in 18 technical tracks covering all of the major areas of risk assessment includ- ing methods, uncertainty, space and aviation, nuclear power, human reliability and risk management just to name a few. The diversity of organizations participating in this meeting and topics that will be discussed underscore the interest and importance in the technical issues that shape our activities. We encourage you to take some time and attend a session or two outside of your area of specialty and learn about the diversity of applications of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and risk management. Build new bridges; help to broaden our fields thinking while making some new colleagues. Challenge one another, and enter into substantive dialogue! As is our custom with this meeting, you will have a number of opportunities to renew old acquaintances and to develop new ones. We also encourage you to visit the dedicated sponsor area at the meeting to learn about new commercial products and services. Beyond the borders of the meetings lies one of the most vibrant and unique American cities. Our local hosts and we en- courage you to enjoy the Seattle area including its many restaurants and nightspots. You’re never far from a bookstore or a coffee shop in this city that is known for its relaxed and eclectic atmosphere. Experience Seattle and enjoy what this fine city has to offer. Thank you for your attendance and participation in this meeting and welcome to Seattle! Bruce and Harold and 1 PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 Acknowledgement The PSAM 10 Conference Organizing Committee wish to express our gratitude to the many people and organizations that have contributed to ensuring the success of this conference. It is the conference participants that provide the true value and generate the most significant and lasting effects of the interactive exchanges that occur during the week of meetings. Thank you for your interest, technical contributions, and willingness to actively participate. There were numerous organiza- tions and individuals that helped to disseminate notice of this meeting and encourage submission of technical papers. This form of support facilitated a very strong performance by the Technical Program Committee with nearly 360 papers from 32 countries in over 100 sessions will be presented and are included in the Conference Proceedings. In addition, the conference experience has been enhanced through the financial and logistical support provided by the sev- eral contributing sponsors. The PSAM 10 Conference organizers would like to thank our sponsors, IAPSAM, Idaho National Laboratory, The Center for Advanced Energy Studies, Scandpower, and Scientech for their support. Mrs. Hanna Shapira of Techno-Info Comprehensive Solutions (TICSs) provided the conference Web Site design and Online Software and we would also like to express our appreciation for the professionalism, technical skill and patience she has provided. We would like to acknowledge the many efforts on behalf of IAPSAM by the Technical Program Committee for PSAM 10. In particular the conference organizers wish to acknowledge the following for their assistance, dedication and technical expertise in helping to bring about the technical program and this conference. Tunc Aldemir Bruce Hallbert Sitakanta Mohanty Ben Ale Joan Harvey Bill Nelson George Apostolakis Philippe Hessel Luiz Oliveira Piero Baraldi Stefan Hirschberg Todd Paulos James Battles Vincent Ho Osvaldo Pensado Harold Blackman Elod Hollo Helene Pesme Emanuele Bogonovo Feng Hsu Kurt Petersen Nattasha Freeman Moosung Jae Jerry Phillips Sandro Bologna David Johnson Luca Podofillini Ron Boring Peter Kafka Pekka Pyy Roger Boyer Tsu-Mu Kao Alan Roe Radim Bris Dana Kelly Budhi Sagar Mario Brito Soli Khericha Oliver Salvi Andreas Bye Inn Seock Kim Yoshinobu Sato James Chang James Lambert Martin Sattison Simone Colombo Jeanne-Marie Lanore Zdenko Simic Wan Ki Chow Tim Leahy Nathan Siu Valerio Cozzani James C. Lin Cornelia Spitzer Vinh Dang Antoly Lisniasky Andreas Strohm Homayoon Dezfuli Erasmia Lois Peter Swift Enrique Lopez-Droguett Gaspare Maggio Magdy (Samy) Tawfik Andrew Dykes Davide Manca Paolo Trucco Chester Everline Sebastian Martorell Jan Erik Vinnem Terri Flores Giuseppe Mashchio Reino Virolainen Adrian Gheorghe Xie Min Joon-Eon Yang Ching Guey Krishna Misra Jonathan Young Andrew Hale Zahra Mohaghegh Bob Youngblood 2 PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 Previous PSAM Conferences PSAM 1 Beverly Hills, CA, USA, February 1991 General and Technical Program Chair: G. E. Apostolakis PSAM 2 San Diego, CA, USA, March 1994 General Chair: M. G. Stamatelatos Technical Program Chair: G. E. Apostolakis PSAM 3 (Held in conjunction with ESREL’96) Crete, Greece, June 1996 General Chair: I. A. Papazoglou Technical Chair: P. C. Cacciabue PSAM 4 New York, New York, USA, September 1998 General Chair: R. A. Bari Technical Program Chair: A. Mosleh PSAM 5 Osaka, Japan, November 2000 Honorary Chair: H. Uchida General Chair: S. Kondo Technical Program Chairs: S. Kondo and K. Furuta PSAM 6 San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA, June 2002 General Chair: E. J. Bonano Technical Program Chair: A. L. Camp Technical Program C-Chair: A. Ghassemi PSAM 7 (held in conjunction with ESREL’04) Berlin, Germany, June 2004 General Chair: C. Spitzer Technical Program Chair: U. Schmocker Associate General Chair: E. Zio Technical Program C-Chairs: S. Chakraborty, M. Faber, and S. Hirschberg PSAM 8 New Orleans, USA, May 2006 General Co-Chairs: D. Johnson and L. J. Steinberg Technical Program Co-Chairs: H. Blackman and M. Stamatelatos PSAM 9 Hong Kong, China, May 2008 General Chair: V. Ho Technical Program Chair: Tsu-Mu Kao Associate Technical Program Chair: E. Zio 3 PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 Welcome 4 PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 Welcome 5 PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 Committees Technical Program Committee Piero Baraldi Anatoly Lisniansky James Battles Erasmia Lois Sandro Bologna Gaspare Maggio Ron Boring Xie Min Roger Boyer Zahra Mohaghegh Mario P. Brito Sitakanta Mohanty Wan Ki Chow Bill Nelson Valerio Cozzani Todd Paulos Vinh Dang Helene Pesme Adrian Gheorghe Alan Roe Ching Guey Budhi Sagar Feng Hsu Marty Sattison Moosung Jae Zdenko Simic David Johnson Joon-Eon Yang Tsu-Mu Kao Jonathan Young Soli Khericha Bob Youngblood Tim Leahy Technical Program Committee Members At Large Tunc Aldemir Jeanne-Marie Lanore Ben Ale James C. Lin George Apostolakis Davide Manca Harold Blackman Sebastian Martorell Emanuele Bogonovo Giuseppe Mashchio Radim Bris Krishna Misra Andreas Bye Luiz Oliveira James Chang Todd Paulos Simone Colombo Osvaldo Pensado Homayoon Dezfuli Kurt Petersen Enrique Lopez Droguett Jerry Phillips Andrew Dykes Luca Podofillini Chester Everline Pekka Pyy Nattasha Freeman Oliver Salvi Andrew Hale Yoshinobu Sato Bruce Hallbert Nathan Siu Joan Harvey Cornelia Spitzer Philippe Hessel Andreas Strohm Stefan Hirschberg Peter Swift Vincent Ho Magdy (Samy) Tawfik Elod Hollo Paolo Trucco David Johnson Jan Erik Vinnem Peter Kafka Reino Virolainen Dana Kelly Inn Seock Kim James Lambert 6 PSAM 10 - 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference June 7-11, 2010 General Information Registration Registration is required for all attendees and presenters. The meeting registration desk is at Courtyard Foyer Badges are required for admission to all events. Sunday 8:00 AM – 3:00 PM Monday 7:30 AM – 4:00 PM The Full Conference Registration Fee includes: Welcome Tuesday 7:30 AM – 4:00 PM Reception, Tillicum Village Dinner Excursion, Conference Wednesday 7:30 AM – 4:00 PM Luncheon, proceedings, and admittance to technical ses- Thursday 7:30 AM – 4:00 PM sions. Conference Proceedings The Student Registration Fee includes: Welcome Reception, Conference Proceedings, in CD-ROM format, are included Tillicum Village Dinner Excursion, Conference Luncheon, with the program book. Please check the vinyl pocket inside proceedings, and admittance to technical sessions. the back cover of the program book. Spouse/Guest: Registrants can purchase extra tickets for guests to Welcome Reception ($-50.00/ ticket) on June 7, 2010 or to the Tillicum Village Dinner Excursion ($-50.00/ ticket) on June 9, 2010 Speaker Information Session Chair Information Please sign the “Speaker Sign-in Form” at the registration Please complete and return a “Session Chair Sign-in Form” desk. Please be sure to bring your presentation in MicroSoft to the Registration Desk the morning you are scheduled PowerPoint format. Note that the total time available for to Chair a Session(s). Please be present at your session presentations (other than the plenary) varies from 18 to