EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 4.4.2016 SWD(2016) 102 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission Nuclear Illustrative Programme presented under Article 40 of the Euratom Treaty for the opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee {COM(2016) 177 final} EN EN Table of figures ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Overview of the European nuclear industry ............................................................................ 4 2 The front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle ........................................................................................ 6 2.1 Demand for natural uranium .................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Conversion ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Enrichment .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Fuel fabrication ........................................................................................................................ 8 3 Nuclear new build ........................................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Investment costs .................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Projection of installed capacity .............................................................................................. 13 3.3 Estimated investments in new capacity for the period 2015-2050 ........................................ 14 3.4 Licensing process .................................................................................................................. 15 3.5 Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) .......................................................................................... 17 3.6 Non-power applications ......................................................................................................... 20 4 Long term operations .................................................................................................................. 21 4.1 Safety considerations ............................................................................................................. 21 4.2 Economic considerations ....................................................................................................... 22 4.3 Estimated investments in LTO for the period 2015-2050 ..................................................... 23 5 The back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle ...................................................................................... 24 5.1 Waste management ................................................................................................................ 24 5.2 Decommissioning of nuclear power plants............................................................................ 30 5.3 Financing the back-end activities .......................................................................................... 32 6 Cost summary .............................................................................................................................. 40 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................... 42 2 Table of figures Figure 1 Share of nuclear in national (gross) Figure 2 Share of nuclear in national energy ......................... 5 Figure 3 Purchases of natural uranium by EU utilities by origin, 2006–14 (tU) (%) ....................................... 6 Figure 4 Natural uranium included in fuel loaded by source - 2014 ................................................................... 7 Figure 5 Providers of enrichment services delivered to EU utilities in 2014 ...................................................... 8 Figure 6 LWR fuel fabrication capacity in Western Europe, in tons of heavy metal (tHM) .............................. 9 Figure 7 Generic Overnight Construction Costs ............................................................................................... 11 Figure 8 Estimated costs of new build projects under development or consideration ...................................... 11 Figure 9 Illustration of financing costs as a % of overnight construction costs ................................................ 12 Figure 10 Duration of NPPs construction in Europe ......................................................................................... 12 Figure 11 Projection of nuclear installed capacity EU28 2015-2050 ................................................................ 14 Figure 12 Projected investments in new nuclear capacity ................................................................................. 14 Figure 13 Equilibrium carbon price (EUR/tCO2) .............................................................................................. 15 Figure 14 Summary of the land-based SMR designs at most advanced stage of development......................... 18 Figure 15 Age profile of the European nuclear power reactors ......................................................................... 21 Figure 16 LTO and post Fukushima safety investments from 2000 to 2025 (EUR/kWe) ................................ 23 Figure 17 Projected evolution of the existing fleet (GW) ................................................................................. 23 Figure 18 Estimated investment needs in LTO ................................................................................................. 23 Figure 19 Classification of radioactive waste .................................................................................................... 24 Figure 20 Illustrative once-through (OT) cycle ................................................................................................. 26 Figure 21 Illustrative PWR-MOX recycling cycle ............................................................................................ 26 Figure 22 Commercial reprocessing facilities in Europe .................................................................................. 27 Figure 23 Status of the projects to build geological repositories to dispose HLW ........................................... 29 Figure 24 Nuclear reactors in shut down status per MS and technology .......................................................... 30 Figure 25 Illustrative calculation of the decommissioning costs in relation to the price of electricity sold ...... 31 Figure 26 Decommissioning strategies .............................................................................................................. 32 Figure 27 Estimated costs of decommissioning NPPs ...................................................................................... 33 Figure 28 Waste management estimates reported by Member States (including costs for the building of geological repositories) ..................................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 29 Comparison of available funds to accomplished useful life ............................................................. 35 Figure 30 Overview of Decommissioning and Waste management funds ........................................................ 37 Figure 31 Illustrative impact of the discount rate in nuclear provisions ........................................................... 39 Figure 32 Discount rates used in back-end provisions ...................................................................................... 39 Figure 33 Summary of the estimated projections .............................................................................................. 40 Figure 34 Comparison of cumulative investments in nuclear power capacity in Europe ................................. 40 3 1 Introduction This Staff Working Document has been prepared to support the analysis of the Nuclear Illustrative Programme of the Commission (PINC), and is a collection of factual data gathered from several sources. Member States and nuclear operators have provided some data through questionnaires prepared by the European Commission on specific matters where public information was limited. Information on future investments in nuclear facilities has been taken from notifications received by the Commission in the framework of Article 41 of the Euratom Treaty or in public statements issued by investors or Member States. Public sources and voluntary contributions that are listed in the bibliography have been used as well. This document focuses on nuclear power generation. Non-power applications of the nuclear energy and R&D activities are considered in the framework of other Communications.1 The scope of the analysis includes Member States with operational or shut-down nuclear power reactors, namely: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Finland, France, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia and the United Kingdom. Poland has also been included since it has expressed its intention to potentially develop