The London School of Economics and Political Science Chinese Foreign Policy in the ‘Going Out’ Era: Confronting Challenges and ‘Adaptive Learning’ in the Case of China- Sudan and South Sudan Relations Laura Barber A thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, June 2014 1 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 97,667 words. 2 ABSTRACT This thesis seeks to understand change within China’s foreign policy under a ‘Going Out’ strategy in Sudan and South Sudan between 1993 and 2013. China has traditionally viewed the Sudanese and African context more generally as having a wholly positive impact on its interests. However, in the Sudan case, the insertion of China’s leading National Oil Company into the Sudanese political economy from the mid-1990s has meant that Sudan’s internal situation has negatively affected China’s interests and, in turn, impacted on its foreign policy. Drawing from ‘learning’ theory within International Relations’ sub-field of Foreign Policy Analysis, this thesis develops a concept of negative experiential ‘adaptive learning’ to explain change within this case study. It firstly argues that from 2005 China tactically adapted its foreign policy approach in response to challenges that emerged along the trajectory of engagement. Secondly, China’s foreign policy implementing institutions collectively learnt the specific lesson that local conflict dynamics in the Sudans could negatively affect Chinese interests, and also learnt the limitations within China’s foreign policy approach. This research finds that throughout the period of change between 2005 and 2011, China’s diplomacy remained predominately reactive and defensive. However, since 2012 China began to develop a more assertive foreign policy approach vis-à-vis the long-term resolution of Sudanese conflicts. This has been underpinned by the gradual learning of broader lessons regarding China’s traditional understanding of the nature of Sudanese conflicts and its peace and security role therein. Overall, this thesis aims to provide an in-depth holistic analysis of the evolution of China’s contemporary foreign policy towards Sudan and South Sudan. A specific contribution to the literature has been to develop the concept of ‘adaptive learning’, which can be utilised across other case studies to broaden our understanding of Chinese foreign policy towards Africa in the ‘Going Out’ era. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am enormously grateful to my supervisor, Professor Chris Alden. Prof. Alden has been incredibly supportive ever since I first approached him at a conference in Addis Ababa in 2007 with an initial idea for a research project on China-Africa relations. Throughout this long process, he has provided me with much needed critical guidance, whilst also encouraging me to spend time in both China and Africa where I have tried to do my own learning about this relationship. I am also thankful for the generous support I have received from the Economic and Social Research Council and the International Relations Department at LSE over the past six years. I also owe a word of thanks to the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore and the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies for kindly hosting me in the initial and final stages of this project, respectively. A number of outstanding academics and friends have been extremely helpful and supportive while I undertook fieldwork in Beijing, Shanghai and Juba. Special thanks are due to Zhang Chun, Jiang Hengkun, Wang Suolao, Wang Yizhou, Xiao Yuhua, Michael Møller, Richard Rands, Matthew LeRiche, Tom Wheeler, Daniel Large, Tim Millar and Leben Moro. None of this would have been possible without the constant loving support of my parents, John and Jo, and my brothers, Paul and Tom. I fear that they may have suffered the most over the past six years, yet they have never ceased to be my rock of support getting me through the difficult times. I am enormously grateful to my parents for giving my brother and I the opportunity to live in Hong Kong at a young age. This experience sparked my initial interest in China and international affairs, for which I will always be grateful. Special thanks must go to my mum, both for proofreading this work and for being such a great tennis partner. I would also like to thank all of my close friends and comrades for their fantastic support over the years. Last, but not at all least, I am especially grateful to Alex Jackson for his astute advice and loving encouragement. Alex is an amazing motivational force in my life, and this has been key to my completion of this project. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures, Tables and Diagrams..................................................8 Selected Acronyms and Abbrevations..............................................10 Chapter 1. Introduction .......................................................................12 1.1. Rationale and Hypothesis...........................................................12 1.2. Situating the Research ...............................................................17 1.2.1. The evolving debate on China’s rise................................... 17 1.2.2. Energy (in)security and the ‘Going Out’ strategy in Africa ............................................................................... 21 1.2.3. Literature review ................................................................. 27 1.3. Theoretical Framework: Foreign Policy Analysis and Learning...............................................................................36 1.3.1. Theoretical perspectives on change in Chinese foreign policy......................................................... 36 1.3.2. Conceptualising learning in foreign policy analysis............. 42 1.3.3. Governmental-institutional level collective learning ............ 48 1.4. China’s Foreign Policy Belief System and Adaptive Learning ....58 1.4.1. Continuity of China’s fundamental and strategic beliefs ..... 58 1.4.2. Adaptation at the tactical level ............................................ 62 1.4.3. Lesson Learning: The Sudanese context and its impact on China .................................................................. 73 1.5. Methodology ...............................................................................77 1.5.1. A single-case study and its justification .............................. 77 1.5.2. Methodological approach.................................................... 79 1.5.3. Structure of the thesis ......................................................... 85 Chapter 2. From Ideology to Oil: The Evolution of China-Africa Relations and the Case of Sudan.....................................87 2.1. Historical Background of China’s Foreign Policy towards Africa .............................................................................88 2.1.1. Ideology and Principles: Mao and the Third World (1949-1977)..................................................... 89 2.1.2. Economic pragmatism: The reform period (1978-1999) ..... 91 2.2. China-Sudan Relations ‘Before and After Oil’ (1956-2004) ................................................................................98 2.2.1. After independence: principles and pragmatism................. 98 2.2.2. The entrance of CNPC in the context of civil war (1993-1999) ..................................................................... 102 2.2.3. Early signs of a backlash (1999-2001).............................. 112 2.2.4. Challenges to the consolidation of Chinese interests (2002-2004) ...................................................................... 118 2.3. Chapter conclusions .................................................................134 Chapter 3. Intervention and Conflict Mediation: From Darfur to the Independence of South Sudan ......137 3.1. Darfur crisis: limited coordination to ‘constructive mediation’ (2005-2008).......................................138 3.1.1. Support for the AU and ‘limited coordination’ with the international community (January-March 2005).......... 138 5 3.1.2. Tentative support for the UN and ‘active co-ordination’ with the international community (September 2005-July 2006) ........................................... 141 3.1.3. Direct involvement: persuading Khartoum to accept a UNPK force (August 2006-April 2007) .......................... 148 3.1.4. The ‘Genocide Olympics’ campaign: China’s public diplomacy (May-December 2007).................................... 155 3.1.5. China’s ‘constructive mediation’ and mixed response to the ICC (January 2008-January 2009)......................... 160 3.2. An evolving mediation role in Sudan-South Sudan tensions (2005-2013) .............................................................................166 3.2.1. Implementing the CPA and China’s pre-referendum ........ 166 diplomacy