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2019-2020 Planning Year, Meaning for Every 100 Mws of Installed Wind Capacity, 7.8 Mws Would Count Towards Meeting MISO’S Planning Reserve Margin

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2019-2020 Planning Year, Meaning for Every 100 Mws of Installed Wind Capacity, 7.8 Mws Would Count Towards Meeting MISO’S Planning Reserve Margin By Southern Indiana Gas and Electric Company d/b/a Vectren a CenterPoint Energy Company May 1, 2020 2019/2020 Integrated Resource Plan June 2020 2019/2020 Integrated Resource Plan Table of Contents Page Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... 1 Table of Figures............................................................................................................. 7 IRP Rule Requirements Cross Reference Table ....................................................... 10 List of Acronyms/Abbreviations ................................................................................ 25 Executive Summary (Non-Technical Summary) ....................................................... 32 1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................ 55 1.1 COMPANY BACKGROUND ............................................................................. 56 1.2 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING........................................................... 56 IRP Objectives ............................................................................................ 58 IRP Development ....................................................................................... 58 1.3 CHANGES SINCE THE 2016 IRP .................................................................... 59 Generation and Storage Filings .................................................................. 59 Environmental Rules .................................................................................. 62 Electric TDSIC ............................................................................................ 66 IRP Rule Making Process ........................................................................... 67 DSM Filing .................................................................................................. 67 Alcoa Contract ............................................................................................ 68 Merger with CenterPoint Energy................................................................. 69 FERC Grid Resilience and MISO Initiatives ............................................... 69 2016 IRP Director’s Report ......................................................................... 72 Statewide Energy Policy Analysis ............................................................... 73 HB 1414 ..................................................................................................... 74 COVID-19 ................................................................................................... 75 Contemporary Issues ................................................................................. 76 2 VECTREN’S IRP PROCESS ..................................................................................... 77 2.1 VECTREN’S IRP PROCESS ............................................................................ 78 2.2 Conduct an All-Source RFP .............................................................................. 78 2.3 OBJECTIVES, RISK PERSPECTIVES and SCORECARD DEVELOPMENT .. 80 June 2020 Page 1 2019/2020 Integrated Resource Plan Objectives and Risk Perspectives .............................................................. 84 Scorecard Metrics ....................................................................................... 84 2.4 REFERENCE CASE ASSUMPTIONS AND BOUNDARY SCENARIOS........... 89 Reference Case.......................................................................................... 89 Alternative Scenarios .................................................................................. 91 2.5 PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................... 96 2.6 PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE (SCENARIO BASED RISK ASSESSMENT) . 100 2.7 PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE (PROBABILISTIC OR STOCHASTIC MODELING RISK ASSESSMENT) ................................................................. 100 2.8 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 101 2.9 BALANCED SCORECARD ............................................................................. 102 2.10 SELECTION OF THE PREFERRED PORTFOLIO ......................................... 103 3 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROCESS ..................................................................... 105 3.1 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROCESS ............................................................ 106 3.2 KEY ISSUES DISCUSSED ............................................................................. 108 3.3 STAKEHOLDER INPUT .................................................................................. 109 3.4 DATA REQUESTS SUMMARY ....................................................................... 110 4 CUSTOMER ENERGY NEEDS ............................................................................... 112 4.1 CUSTOMER TYPES ....................................................................................... 113 4.2 FORECAST DRIVERS AND DATA SOURCES .............................................. 113 4.3 MODEL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................... 115 4.4 CUSTOMER OWNED DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES .................... 116 Current DG ............................................................................................... 117 Solar DG Forecast .................................................................................... 117 Potential Effects of Distributed Generation on Transmission and Distribution 120 4.5 ELECTRIC VEHICLES .................................................................................... 123 Current EVs .............................................................................................. 123 EV Forecast .............................................................................................. 123 Potential Effects on Generation, Transmission and Distribution ............... 125 4.6 ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST (REFERENCE CASE) ....................... 126 4.7 DISCUSSION OF BASE LOAD, INTERMEDIATE LOAD and PEAK LOAD ... 127 June 2020 Page 2 2019/2020 Integrated Resource Plan 4.8 STAKEHOLDER INPUT – Load Forecast ....................................................... 129 5 The MISO Market .................................................................................................... 130 5.1 MISO ............................................................................................................... 131 5.2 MISO Planning Reserve Margin Requirement (PRMR) .................................. 132 5.3 MISO Resource Mix – Past, Current and Future ............................................. 133 5.4 Dispatchable vs. Intermittent ........................................................................... 135 5.5 MISO Maximum-Generation Emergency Events ............................................. 136 5.6 MISO Resource Adequacy Reform ................................................................. 136 5.7 MISO CAPACITY CREDIT .............................................................................. 137 5.8 MISO Capacity ................................................................................................ 143 Capacity Prices......................................................................................... 144 5.9 MISO Energy Prices ........................................................................................ 145 5.10 MISO Interconnection of New Resources ....................................................... 146 6 RESOURCE OPTIONS ............................................................................................ 148 6.1 ALL SOURCE RFP ......................................................................................... 149 RFP Issued ............................................................................................... 149 Notice of Intent ......................................................................................... 150 Proposal Review ....................................................................................... 150 MISO Interconnection ............................................................................... 151 Grouping ................................................................................................... 153 Evaluation of Proposals ............................................................................ 155 Challenges with Conducting an All-Source RFP within an IRP ................ 158 6.2 CURRENT RESOURCE MIX .......................................................................... 159 Coal 161 Natural Gas .............................................................................................. 164 Renewables .............................................................................................. 164 Energy Efficiency ...................................................................................... 165 Demand Response ................................................................................... 167 6.3 POTENTIAL FUTURE OPTIONS MODELING ASSUMPTIONS ..................... 170 Supply Side .............................................................................................. 171 DSM 183 June 2020 Page 3 2019/2020 Integrated Resource Plan 6.4 TRANSMISSION CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................ 194 Description of Existing Transmission System ..........................................
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