YOUR . YOUR FUTURE.

Survey Results for Agriculture 1 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Executive Summary Utahns want to protect and increase food production in our State. • Current circumstances: • Utah’s food production has declined precipitously to where Utah now produces only 2% of its vegetables, 3% of its fruit, 25% of its dairy, 98% of its grains, and 135% of its protein needs, in part because the current land development process incentivizes the loss of water and land for farming. • These percentages could further decline significantly as Utah’s population nearly doubles and we lose more prime farmland by 2050. • Survey findings: • Ninety-eight percent of Utahns want to increase food self-sufficiency from agriculture by putting more land into production and/or changing crops to fruits and vegetables. • To do that, Utahns are willing to: • Cut back on watering their lawns and gardens to ensure we have enough water for agriculture • Avoid building on high-quality farmland • Spend more money to bring non-agricultural water to urban areas • Utahns do not want to take water or land from agriculture.

2 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Agriculture Action Team Background 4 Agriculture Action Team Members 5 YUYF Survey Background 6 Survey Methodology 12 Utah Agriculture Values 21 YUYF Scenarios on Agriculture 24 YUYF Agriculture Results 31 Supporting Results 37 You May Still Take the Survey 40

3 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

The agriculture action team worked for 18 months to create scenarios for the future of agriculture in Utah.

Agriculture, Public Lands, Your Utah, Your Future & Recreation Action Team Utah Quality of Life Values Study Scenarios & Choices

2013 2014 2015

Envision Utah and Governor Herbert invited The values study found that agriculture The action team worked for 18 months to agriculture, public lands, and recreation has become increasingly important to research and model what Utah’s agricultural experts from across the state to join the Utahns across the state. The study also future could be like in 2050 under various Your Utah, Your Future action team for concluded that Utahns care about assumptions. They created four scenarios based those topics. The team has 65 members agriculture because they want high- on different strategies and outcomes for food from the legislature, industry, local quality locally grown food and greater production. Based on the public’s responses in the businesses and government, advocacy food self sufficiency Your Utah, Your Future survey, the action team groups, research institutions, and other will create a vision for Utah’s agricultural future. organizations. The task force is facilitated by Envision Utah.

4 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Agriculture, Public Lands, & Recreation Action Team Members Action team members were selected by Governor Gary Herbert and Envision Utah to represent a spectrum of experience and political persuasions. All action team members were invited to participate by Governor Herbert.

• Leonard Blackham, Utah Department of • LuAnn Adams, Box Elder County Commission • , , District 21 Agriculture and Food, Retired Commissioner* • Mark Clemens, Sierra Club Utah Chapter, • Gordon Topham, Sevier County Commissioner • Peter Knudson, Utah State Senator, District 17 • Kathleen Clarke, Public Lands Policy Manager • Elizabeth Tubbs, Grand County Council • Jim Dabakis, Utah State Senator, District 2 Coordination Office, Directo* • Jack Draxler, Utah State Legislature District 3 • Gene Ciarus, Grand County Council • David Livermore, Nature Conservancy, Utah State • Wendy Fisher, Utah Open Lands* • Thayne Mickelson, Utah Conservation • Bruce Adams, San Juan County Council Director • Brad Peterson, Governor’s Outdoor Rec Office, Commission • Alan Matheson, Governor’s Office Director* • Roger Barrus, Utah House of Representatives • Nathan Rafferty, Ski Utah, President District 18 • Chris McCandless , Sandy City Council • Wayne Niederhauser, District 9, Utah State • George Sommer, Blue Ribbon Fisheries • Mike Noel, Utah State Legislature, District 73 • John Evans, Petzl Climbing Equipment Senator Commission, Chair • Ralph Okerlund, Utah State Senator, District 24 • Mallory Bateman, Utah Foundation • Laura Hanson, Jordan River Commission, • Julia Geisler, Salt Lake Climbers Alliance, Executive Executive Director Director • David Hinkins, Utah State Senator, District 27 • LuAnn Adams, Utah Department of Agriculture and Food • Mike Styler, Department of Natural Resources • Eric Sadler, Wasatch Mountain Club • David Garbett, SUWA • Joan Degiorgio, Nature Conservancy • Brent Tanner, Utah Cattlemen, Executive Vice • Mark Compton, Utah Mining Association, • Randy Parker, Utah Farm Bureau President President • John Mathis, Utah State Legislature, District 55 • Laynee Jones, Mountain Accord • Ashley Patterson, Wasatch Community Gardens • LaNiece Davenport, WFRC Regional Planner • Curtis Rowley, Cherry Hill Farms • Hans Ehrbar, U of U Department of Economics • Warren Peterson, Farmland Reserve, Vice • Sarah Hinners, U of U Metropolitan Research • , Cattle and Sheep Uintah Basin • Brandie Balken, Equality Utah President Center • Ed Sunderland, Sanpete County farmer • Tara McKee, Governor’s Outdoor Rec Office • Brad Barber, Barber Consulting • John Bennett, Utah Quality Growth Commission • Alma Adams, Iron County Commissioner • Wesley Smith, Salt Lake Chamber • Selma Sierra, Energy Dynamics Laboratory, • Larry Crist, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service • Michael Merrill, Salt Lake Chamber Director of Energy and Environmental Policy • Logan Wilde, Morgan County Council • Julie Peck Dabling, Salt Lake County Open Space & • Dustin Rowley, Utah Association of Conservation • Ashley Korenblat, Public Land Solutions • Kent Peatross, Duchesne County Commissioner Urban Farming Districts • Kerry Gibson, Weber County Commissioner • Ron Vance, Forest Service, Recreational and • David Ure, Summit County Council (Former Resource Manager legislature) • Mike Kohler, Wasatch County Council *Action Team Co-Chair • Jon Hardman, Natural Resource Conservation • Vicki Varela, Managing Director Utah Office of • Juan Palma, BLM state director Service Tourism • Evan Vickers, Utah State Senator, District 28 • John Fairchild, Division of Wildlife Resources • Lynn Jackson, Grand County Council • Kay McIff, Utah State Legislature, District 70 5 Your Utah, Your Future Background YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Projections show that Utah’s population will nearly double by the year 2050. In Need of a The Your Utah, Your Future survey was designed for Utahns to create a vision Solution for the State of Utah for the next 35 years.

Envision Utah performed a values study to understand what Utahns care about Identifying regarding the future and why those issues are personally important to them. the Issues The study identified eleven key issues: agriculture, air quality, recreation, disaster resilience, public lands, transportation and communities, housing and cost of living, education, energy, jobs and economy, and water.

Identifying Four-hundred Utah experts worked in eight task forces to identify Utah’s Choices and choices for each of the 11 topics. The information and options in the survey Trade-offs were the direct findings of these taskforces.

The Your Utah, Your Future survey was designed to prioritize issues and their Choosing a associated outcomes in order to make strategic decisions for Utah’s future. Future Nearly 53,000 people weighed in on the future that they want to create in 2050.

6 Your Utah, Your Future Background YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Your Utah, Your Future Background The Challenge: By 2050, Utah’s population will nearly double in size. Utah will not.

7 Your Utah, Your Future Background YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

The Your Utah, Your Future survey asked Utahns to indicate their choices for Utah’s Future on 11 specific issues.

Housing & Cost Education Air Quality Agriculture Transportation & of Living Communities

Economic Disaster Recreation Water Public Lands Energy Development Resilience

8 Your Utah, Your Future Background YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Survey participants then chose between five overall scenarios for Utah’s future, with each overall scenario proposing a set of choices for the 11 specific issues.

9 Your Utah, Your Future Background YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Our goal was for 50,000 Utahns to 50,000 take the Your Utah, Goal Respondents Your Future survey about their desires for the future for 52,845 Utah. Actual Respondents

10 Your Utah, Your Future Background YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

The Your Utah, Your Future survey garnered more public participation than any such project ever has.

Envision Utah Quality Growth Strategy (Wasatch Front and Back—1998) Show Your Love, San Diego Southern Nevada Strong (Central Florida)

Total Survey Responses

23,000 17,500 28,000

5,000 8

1,000 7,000 ,000 52,845

The original Envision Utah 1999 survey held the record with 17,500

Heartland 2050 PLANiTULSA (Atlanta, GA) (Omaha, NE) (Tulsa, OK) public response for many years. Louisiana Speaks 11 (Southern Louisiana after Katrina) YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Survey Methodology 12 Survey Structure—Part One YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Utahns were invited to participate in two parts of the survey. In the first part: Survey participants chose among five overall scenarios for Utah’s future.

Each overall scenario was made up of a set a choices on 11 different topics.

Economic Housing & Education Air Quality Transportation Disaster Recreation Public Agriculture Development Water Energy Cost of Living & Communities Resilience Lands

13 Survey Structure—Part One (Cont’d) YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Participants compared the different options within each topic and selected their preferred scenarios for that specific topic.

They were provided with in-depth information and background data for each of the topics and choices. 14 Survey Structure—Part One (Cont’d) YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

After making selections for each of the 11 topics, participants could study a summary comparison chart and vote on their preferred overall scenario.

15 Survey Structure—Part Two YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. In the second part of the survey, Utahns participated in more traditional survey exercises. Prioritizing Issues Weighting Outcome Preference Indicating Tradeoff Willingness

Together, the results of parts one and two of the survey allow a sophisticated analysis of what Utahns want, why they want it, and what they’re

willing to do to achieve their goals. 16 Detailed Survey Methodology YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Each part of the survey had different goals and provided important information.

1 SCENARIO SELECTIONS 2 TRADE-OFF SURVEY

Process Issue Scenario Importance of Issue Prioritization Trade-off Willingness “Favoriting” Vote Outcomes

1. Educate Utahns on the key issues facing the state 1. Force Utahns to prioritize importance / level of 2. Quantify preferences for issue-specific outcomes concern for all issues 3. Identify areas of consensus and disagreement 2. Quantify importance of outcomes related to Goals across issues specific issues 4. Quantify preferences for defined scenarios 3. Assess willingness to make trade-offs in order to reach desired outcomes Survey Participation YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

A random sample survey of Utahns was used to cross-check outreach results OUTREACH SAMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE

Utahns that heard about the survey through A statistically representative sample of Envision Utah’s outreach efforts and went to Utahns randomly sampled to participate in the website to vote the survey • School outreach • Direct email • Digital media • Physical mail (postcard invitations) • Partner organization emails and posts • Phone recruiting • Radio advertisements • News coverage Total participants: 52,845 Total participants: 1,264 Survey Participation YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

All Participants participated in Part One

RANDOM OUTREACH SAMPLE

n=52,845 n=1,264

Outreach Participants had the option to participate in Part Two

OUTREACH

n=13,459

All Random Sample Participants participated in Part Two

RANDOM SAMPLE

n=1,264 Participant Comparison YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Outreach and Random Sample participant responses were very much aligned across issues and preferences.

Variance Across Most Responses “We can conclude that the results represent Issue +/- 3% “Favoriting” the desires and opinions of Utahns.” “Results were obtained via the largest public Scenario +/- 4% Vote outreach effort in the history of Utah, resulting in public input from more than 50,000 people; Issue +/- 1.2% Prioritization an effort that was cross-checked with a

Importance +/- 2% random sample of 1,264 Utahns, and overseen of Outcomes by Dan Jones & Associates.”

Trade-off +/- 7% —Cicero; Dan Jones & Associates Willingness Envision Utah performed a values study in 2014 toYOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. understand what Utahns care most about regarding the future. The study found a significant increase in the importance of agriculture to Utahns.

Agriculture Values 21 Agriculture Values YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

In 2007, almost a third of Utahns did not have a strong opinion about farming and ranching. However, by 2014, 74% agree that it is critical to Utah’s future.

■ Exactly ■ Strongly ■ Somewhat ■ Somewhat ■ Strongly ■ Exactly like Bailey like Bailey like Bailey like Nelson like Nelson like Nelson 2014 Bailey 1% Nelson believes that farming 74% 11% 28% 34% 10% 4% 15% believes that farming and ranching are just one of and ranching are many things that make critical to the future of Utah great and that as Utah and help to Neither: 12% times change farming maintain the land and values that are so and ranching will important to making Utah need to decline in a great place 2007 order to make room for to live. 1% other things that are more important for the future 53% 11% 22% 20% 12% 3% 15% of the state.

Neither: 32%

BASE: ALL QUALIFIED RESPONDENTS (N=1000) Q720. Below are the opinions of two hypothetical Utah residents. Please indicate which opinion comes closest to your own. Is your opinion more like Mr. Bailey or more like Mr. 22 Nelson? Agriculture Value Pathways YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Peace of mind Better for future Mostly Good Job Dominant Pathway Security generations Secondary Pathway

Freedom Family Love

Personal Values Personal Protect planet Live longer 8% Quality of Utahns care about Self reliant life agriculture because Better More/better time locally grown food community with family More responsible/better provides jobs, Do other Less steward

Psychosocial Psychosocial Sustainable things worry/stress Consequences improves Utah’s self Save money 4% More Take care of 8% reliance and food 6% productive children/family Impacts security, and is better Not dependent on More environment Economic others affordable for the health of Utah development Wastes 6% 1% Healthier living money Conserve Conserve energy families and future 27% Hurts/Protects water

Functional Support local small Wastes/pollute generations. Consequences economies/rural Safe food farmers/ranchers s land lifestyle5% 9% Pesticide/GMO Water Quality food products Preserve farm Produce locally safeguards Farm subsidies usageGrazing on public Local jobs 24% 32% Organic 6% land12% 1% lands 23 6% 7% 2%

Tax/regulation Attributes policies 23 In the Your Utah, Your Future survey, Utahns wereYOUR given UTAH. information YOUR FUTURE. about Utah’s agriculture today and four different scenarios for what our agriculture and food supply could be like in 2050 depending on the choices we make.

Agriculture Scenarios 24 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Utah’s Agriculture Today

140% 134% • We produce only 3% of our fruit and 120% 2% of our vegetables

100% 95% • By 2050 we will cut our per person production in half by population 80% 70% growth alone

60% 51% • If we continue to urbanize prime

40% agriculture land/take water from 26% farmland we will produce almost no 20% 14% fruits and vegetables in Utah, and 3% 1.5% 2% 1.1% 0% very little dairy Grain Protein Fruit Vegetable Dairy

% Self Sufficient Today

% Self Sufficient in 2050 with Same Acres in Production 25 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Questions Concerning the Future of Agriculture

• Should we urbanize high-quality agriculture land as we grow? • Can we continue to increase farm efficiency? • Should we shift from alfalfa to more fruits and vegetables in some places? • Should we expand agriculture onto additional lands (private and public)?

26 Scenario Strategies YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Allosaurus Scenario

140% 134% • Homes & businesses replace most Wasatch Front farms 120% • Water also moved from 100% 95% working farms

80% • Food self-sufficiency 68% decreases significantly 60% 47%

40% 26%

20% 11% 3% 0.6% 2% 0.4% 0% Grain Protein Fruit Vegetable Dairy 27 Today 2050 Scenario Strategies YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Bonneville Trout Scenario

140% 134% • Homes & businesses replace most Wasatch Front farms 120% • Water not moved from 95% 100% working farms

80% • Food self-sufficiency 70% decreases 60% 49% This is a likely outcome if Utah 40% 26% does not change the current

20% 14% approach to urban development

3% 1.0% 2% 0.9% of agricultural land and water. 0% Grain Protein Fruit Vegetable Dairy Today 2050 28 Scenario Strategies YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Seagull & Sego Lily Scenarios

140% 134% • Homes & businesses replace farms more slowly 120% • Some shift of alfalfa/hay to 100% 95% fruits & vegetables

80% 75% • Food self-sufficiency 71% increases some 60%

40% 26%

20% 14% 10% 10% 3% 2% 0% Grain Protein Fruit Vegetable Dairy

Today 2050 29 Scenario Strategies YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE. Quaking Aspen Scenario

140% 134% • Homes & businesses replace farms more slowly 120%

100% 100% • Cropland added: significant 95% 100% shift of alfalfa/hay to fruits, vegetables & dairy 80% • Food self-sufficiency 60% improves significantly

40% 30% 26% 20% 20% 20%

3% 2% 0% Grain Protein Fruit Vegetable Dairy

Today 2050 30 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Agriculture Survey Results 31 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Level of Concern for the Future—Outreach Sample Results Share of Preference, n=13,459 In the 2014 values

Jobs and Economy 13.1% study, Utahns ranked Water 12.9% all 11 issues as being Air Quality 11.7% important to Utah’s Education 11.4% future. The 2015 Energy 8.6%

Agriculture 7.4% survey used a

Public Lands 6.5% sophisticated Housing and Cost of Living 6.5% technique to force a Taxes 5.8% “weighting” of the Disaster Resilience 5.1% issues, providing a Recreation 4.0% wider gradation of Transportation 3.7%

Communities 3.1% concern.

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Share of Preference Source: Survey – Keeping in mind that between now and the year 2050, Utah will almost double in population, OUTREACH please consider how important each of the following issues is to you. Considering only these four issues, which is n = 52,845 32 the Most Important and which is the Least Important as you think about Utah’s future? YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Level of Concern for the Future—Random Sample Results RANDOM Share of Preference, n=1,264 SAMPLE n = 1,264

Jobs and Economy 14.2%

Air Quality 11.1% Water 10.9% Results of the random Education 9.8% sample survey Housing and Cost of Living 9.0% evidenced greater Energy 8.3% concern for housing & Taxes 8.1%

Agriculture 8.0% cost of living and taxes

Disaster Resilience 6.2% than agriculture

Public Lands 4.8%

Transportation 3.6%

Recreation 2.9%

Communities 2.7%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Share of Preference Source: Survey – Keeping in mind that between now and the year 2050, Utah will almost double in population, please consider how important each of the following issues is to you. Considering only these four issues, which is 33 the Most Important and which is the Least Important as you think about Utah’s future? YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Issue-specific Scenarios % “Favorite” Selections, n=19,389

Quaking Aspen Increased cropland 65% and food self-sufficiency

Seagull and Sego Lily What Utahns Want: Some farms gone; some crops change to increase 33% food self-sufficiency 65% of Utahns selected an agriculture scenario in which Utah’s food self-sufficiency, Bonneville Trout Many farms gone; locally grown food, and cropland significantly 2% less food self-sufficiency increase.

Allosaurus Another 33% chose a scenario in which Very many farms gone; 2% much less food self-sufficiency Utah’s food self-sufficiency and locally grown food increase, but to a somewhat lesser

Source: Website – Select your favorite agriculture outcome(s) from the 4 extent. presented below for Utah in 2050. Consider our self sufficiency from local agriculture. OUTREACH Only 4% want food production to continue n = 52,845 to decline. YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Importance of Outcomes Average % Allocated, n=4,875

Improving Utah's food self sufficiency 23% Why Utahns Want to Improve Agriculture: Ensuring Utahns can eat locally 20% grown food Utahns want the state be more self sufficient in Maintaining the open space provided 19% by farms and ranches supplying its own food, as well as have high-quality Improving rural Utah’s economy 17% locally grown food for

Maintaining Utah’s agricultural heritage 12% themselves and their families. Allowing agricultural land and water to convert through market forces to higher- 8% paying uses like houses and businesses

Source: Website – Please indicate each outcome’s relative importance by allocating 100 points across all outcomes. The more points you allocate to a OUTREACH given outcome, the more important it is to you to achieve that outcome. n = 52,845 YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Willingness to Make Tradeoffs % Level of Willingness, n=4,875 What Utahns are willing to do: There will be less water to use for watering your lawn 4% 9% 27% 23% 37% Utahns are willing both to have less water available for lawns and to Utah would no longer be able to build homes and businesses where high-quality 7% 10% 24% 21% 37% avoid taking land and agricultural lands exist water from agriculture, even if it means water We will need to spend more money developing water infrastructure to move 8% 13% 38% 25% 17% costs increase to develop non-agricultural water to urban areas non-agricultural water for urban use. 1 2 3 4 5 Not At All Somewhat Very Willing Willing Willing

Source: Survey – Please indicate your willingness to make each trade-off in order to secure and expand agriculture in Utah. Outcomes: OUTREACH • Increased locally grown food • Less need to import food n = 52,845 • Increase agriculture exports In addition to the specific results from agricultureYOUR questions, UTAH. YOUR a FUTURE.number of results from other topics show strong support for outcomes or strategies that would increase or protect agriculture in the state.

Supporting Survey Results 37 Supporting Survey Results YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

OUTREACH Importance of Outcomes—Water n = 52,845 Average % Allocated

Ensuring there is plenty of water for farms and food 30% production

Ensuring there’s plenty of water in our streams and 24% lakes for wildlife

Ensuring there’s plenty of water in our streams and 13% lakes for recreation

Limiting how much we need to spend maintaining our 12% yards Utahns want to ensure there

Minimizing how much we need to spend on water 10% will be enough water for infrastructure (pipes, reservoirs, etc.) farms and food production. Ensuring we have sufficient grass and other greenery in 8% our yards, parks, and other landscaping

Ensuring we have large yards 3%

Source: Survey – Please indicate each outcome’s relative importance by allocating 100 points across all outcomes. The more points you allocate to a given outcome, the more important it is to you to achieve that outcome. Supporting Survey Results YOUR UTAH. YOUR FUTURE.

Willingness to Make Tradeoffs for Larger Home Lot Sizes OUTREACH % Level of Willingness, n=4,849 n = 52,845 We will spend more money building and maintaining infrastructure like roads and pipes, 28% 24% 30% 12% 7% which will have to stretch farther Utahns are largely Socioeconomic classes will not mix as much because larger lots are more expensive, thus unwilling to convert 33% 24% 26% 10% 7% leading to more income-segregated communities agricultural land for Household transportation costs and time spent driving will increase because homes will be 32% 26% 26% 9% 7% further from city centers, shopping, jobs, and housing. other destinations People will be less able to travel by public transportation, walking, or biking because 37% 25% 23% 8% 6% everything will be farther apart We will have to spend more money on infrastructure and impact the environment to 40% 25% 22% 8% 5% develop and move water supplies because larger lots use more water

We will convert more farmland into houses 45% 27% 18% 5%

1 2 3 4 5 Not At All Somewhat Very Willing Willing Willing Source: Survey – Please indicate your willingness to make each trade-off in order to maximize home sizes in Utah. Outcome: • Bigger yards in more distant locations relative to city centers YOURYOUR UTAH. UTAH. YOUR YOUR FUTURE. FUTURE. The Survey is still available! Visit envisionutah.net to view the choices for agriculture and each of the 11 topics in the Your Utah, Your Future survey.

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