MAKE IT PERSONAL: TRUMP, CONGRESS AND AUSTRALIA’S AVENUES OF INFLUENCE Dougal Robinson July 2017 Table of contents

The Alliance 21 Program is a multi-year research initiative that examines the historically strong Australia-United Executive summary 01 States relationship and works to address the challenges and recommendations and opportunities ahead as the alliance evolves in a changing Asia. Based within the United States Studies Introduction 02 Centre at the University of , the Program was Australia’s pre-Trump playbook 03 launched by the Prime Minister of Australia in 2011 as a public-private partnership to develop new insights and The Trump reality 04 policy ideas. Australian political engagement 06 The Australian Government and corporate partners Boral, Dow, News Corp Australia, and Northrop Grumman The importance of Congress 07 Australia support the program’s second phase, which commenced in July 2015 and is focused on the following How to engage Congress 11 core research areas: defence and security; resource sustainability; alliance systems in Asia; and trade, Trump’s cabinet 15 investment, and business innovation. White House advisers 17

Conclusion 18

Endnotes 19

About the author 23

The Alliance 21 Program receives funding support from the following partners. Research conclusions are derived independently and authors represent their own view not those of the United States Studies Centre.

United States Studies Centre

Institute Building (H03) The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Australia

Phone: +61 2 9351 7249 Email: [email protected] : @ussc Website: ussc.edu.au UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE | ALLIANCE 21 PROGRAM MAKE IT PERSONAL: TRUMP, CONGRESS AND AUSTRALIA’S AVENUES OF INFLUENCE

Executive summary and recommendations

In contrast to recent US administrations, policy in the Trump administration is determined by a president who makes decisions quickly, and on the advice of key cabinet secretaries and advisers he trusts. This personalised approach to decision-making and President Trump’s aversion to reading briefs means there is less scope for bureaucratic processes — including working-level meetings with allies — to influence policy. The State Department is institutionally very weak under Trump, reducing the utility of what is normally a key avenue of influence for foreign governments. As there are few Trump-appointed senior staff in place across the US government — especially at the under and assistant secretary level — the interagency process that informs government policy is less influential than in previous administrations. The idiosyncrasies of the Trump administration will likely limit the effectiveness of Australia’s bureaucratic engagement with the US government, especially on the most important bilateral and regional issues.

Policy recommendations

The prime minister and senior ministers should compensate for the reduced effectiveness of bureaucratic communication with the United States by investing more personal time engaging key stakeholders, and should travel to at least once per year. Specifically, they should focus on engaging two types of individuals: those who are close to the president with a capacity to change his thinking, and those who hold institutional power, such as senior members in Congress. They should substantially deepen their outreach to Congress, which is playing an outsized role in shaping US international engagement under President Trump. Every time Australian political leaders visit Washington, they should hold multiple meetings with key US senators and representatives, including those in the new Friends of Australia Congressional Caucus. Australian leaders should prioritise meetings with key administration figures — such as Vice President , Defense Secretary and Senior Adviser Jared Kushner — who are likely to remain influential with an often volatile president.

Reports published by the United States Studies Centre are anonymously peer-reviewed by both internal and external experts. Cover photo: US President and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in New York, 2017 (Getty)

This report may be cited as: Dougal Robinson, “Make it personal: Trump, Congress and Australia’s avenues of influence,” United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, July 2017.

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Introduction

(L-R) Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Secretary of State , Defence Minister and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis in Sydney, 2017 Photo: Getty

For Australia to successfully influence the Trump bureaucratic personnel and process for policymaking, administration, Australian political leaders will need there is now a paucity of personnel in key senior roles to invest more personal time in Washington with the across the administration and the typical interagency figures that command the president’s attention. Critical process is not in place. As such, working-level in this allocation of effort is the need to focus on engagement with the US government by Australian individuals likely to last the distance with a frequently bureaucrats counts for less than it did in the past. volatile president. But they should also focus on Congress, which is home to often overlooked political This report offers a roadmap for Australian political allies committed to moderating Trump’s “America engagement with Washington in the Trump era. Rather First” agenda. than psychoanalysing the president or speculating as to which advisers are waxing and waning in influence, President Trump’s modus operandi and the it looks at the institutional factors that will shape the idiosyncrasies of his government render Australia’s US-Australia relationship under the 45th president and traditional patterns of engagement unsuitable. Where considers how Australia should adjust. the Obama and Bush administrations relied on

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Australia’s pre-Trump playbook

John Howard and George W. Bush on the president’s ranch in Texas, 2003 Photo: Getty

Australian engagement with the United States has meeting with the president, some ministers have followed a similar pattern over the past two decades secured engagements with the vice president. under Coalition and Labor governments, and Republican and Democratic administrations. Beyond event-driven These periodic, high-level, political engagements phone calls, Australian prime ministers usually meet have typically rested on a foundation of frequent, with the president once or twice a year, generally on friendly, and frank working-level engagement between the sidelines of a multilateral summit and occasionally Australian and American officials. Broadly speaking, for one-on-one meetings in the Oval Office. Prime this bureaucratic engagement is conducted in three ministerial visits to Washington during the Obama locations: in Washington, through the Australian and Bush administrations developed a familiar routine: Embassy’s interaction with the State and Defense consisting of meetings with the president, secretary Departments; in Canberra, between the Departments of state, secretary of defense, intelligence chiefs and of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and Defence, and speaker of the House of Representatives, as well as a the US Embassy; and in Hawaii, between the Australian public address. Australian foreign and defence ministers Consulate- and US military at Pacific Command have had access to their US counterparts through the (PACOM). Australian bureaucratic communication annual AUSMIN consultations since 1985, as well with US officials — by the ambassador in Washington as through meetings on the sidelines of numerous or other senior public servants — has in the past global conferences each year.1 Itineraries for Australian been an effective conduit for Canberra to influence ministers in Washington have varied little from those the US government’s interagency deliberations and of the prime minister — though in the absence of a formulation of policy.

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The Trump reality

Australia is now grappling with a president who does The absence of politically-appointed interlocutors not necessarily value the alliance in the same manner is a particularly pressing problem. In mid-July, the as his predecessors. Although the president and prime administration had just 49 political appointees in minister appeared to put their infamous phone call senior posts (the first 22 of whom are Trump’s cabinet behind them at the Coral Sea Commemoration in New secretaries), compared with 203 confirmed at the York in May, Donald Trump is far less knowledgeable same point in President Obama’s first term and 185 about the Australian alliance — and probably far less under the younger President Bush.2 Trump has not interested — than either or George W. even nominated 350 of the 557 senior officials who Bush. require Senate confirmation to serve as departmental deputy secretaries, under secretaries and assistant Australian bureaucrats have been hampered in secretaries.3 The main exceptions to this picture are engaging their American counterparts by the lack of the military combatant commands (which do not appointments to senior Trump administration roles, a change their senior ranks after a presidential election), weak State Department and an interagency process and the intelligence community. Although Australia’s that has limited influence over the president’s decisions. intelligence agencies have deep links with their US To be sure, working-level meetings between Australian counterparts through the Five Eyes arrangement, and US bureaucrats are occurring, and are useful for mutual distrust exists between President Trump and managing day-to-day issues in the bilateral relationship. the US intelligence community, limiting the overall But for high priority or politically difficult issues importance of the bilateral intelligence relationship as like US Asia strategy, bilateral trade or the refugee a means of influencing the White House. deal, the Trump administration’s modus operandi does not reward deep bureaucratic engagement by The lack of senior political appointees is due, in foreign officials. Australian political leaders therefore part, to the Trump campaign’s expectation that it need to step up and conduct a greater proportion of would not win the election. Unlike Hillary Clinton, engagement at the cabinet level. Trump had not given serious consideration to who

Confirmed Sent but not yet confirmed Average time to confirm

D. Trump 49 157 45 days

B. Obama 203 165 37 days

G.W. Bush 185 132 31 days

B. Clinton 206 69 29 days

G.H.W Bush 148 106 31 days

050 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Figure 1. Presidential appointments sent to the Senate by 17 July (During the first year of each presidency. Source: Partnership for Public Service)

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would staff his administration. But the six-month old assistant secretary of state for East Asia, is Tillerson’s administration nonetheless seems committed to preferred candidate to stay on in the role, but President reducing the influence of the bureaucracy. Indeed, the Trump’s personnel team are actively opposed to Trump White House seems to think that lower-level her candidacy.7 Moreover, President Trump has not political appointments are not important to running the announced a nominee for ambassador to Australia — government, and has given no indication that it will ever and, even if he were to announce one today, it would fill the regular suite of political appointee positions.4 be many months until confirmation by the Senate and Even if the Trump administration wanted to fill these posting to Canberra. positions, they will continue to have trouble finding people willing to serve. Moreover, many members of The bureaucratic dysfunction at State and wider the White House and some cabinet secretaries are absence of key political appointees makes it unlikely that implicated in the multiple investigations into the Trump overtures by DFAT — through embassies in Canberra campaign’s connections with , so the absence or Washington — will filter up the chain to Secretary of a fully-staffed and well-functioning bureaucracy is Tillerson when necessary. This is compounded by the particularly concerning. fact that the State Department itself lacks influence with a White House that has expressed a preference for Another impediment to effective bureaucratic hard power over diplomacy.8 For Australia, diminished engagement is the State Department’s weakness. At official-level communication with State, coupled with the time of writing, State had only one Trump-appointed, its bureaucratic impotence, means less visibility and Senate-confirmed member of its senior executive staff influence in Washington. in Washington serving under Secretary Tillerson. As Tillerson supports President Trump’s proposed 30 per Finally, with so few senior political appointees across cent budget cut to the State Department, and plans to the US government, the typical interagency process downsize and reorganise it, he will not staff most is not in place. Interagency meetings, to be clear, positions until early 2018.5 State, as a result, is now are taking place. However, while the highest-level highly stratified — with Tillerson surrounded by just a interagency meetings, convened by the NSC, would few protective advisers and cut off from much of the normally be held at the assistant or under secretary rest of the department. Its institutional marginalisation level, those currently attending are only acting in their means that some foreign ambassadors have started to positions — mostly Obama administration holdovers focus on the National Security Council (NSC) instead, who are distrusted by a White House that is obsessed bypassing a hitherto important department that no with loyalty to Trump. Interagency meetings, therefore, longer returns their calls or offers substantive answers are less influential on policy than usual, which renders when it does.6 outreach by Australian bureaucrats similarly less effective. From the perspective of co-ordinating US-Australia global interests, it is particularly worrying that the Even if a ‘normal’ interagency process comes into administration has not yet nominated a candidate to effect with Trump-appointed personnel, there is little be the State Department’s undersecretary for political indication that it would meaningfully inform US policy. affairs or assistant secretary for East Asia and the President Trump is not given to reading government Pacific. The career staff currently operating in these policy papers, think tank reports, or books to help senior positions are seasoned professionals, but they him reach decisions. And he is far less likely than are not President Trump’s personnel. As such, they his predecessors to follow a brief produced by staff. invariably lack influence in the White House, and are in Complex interagency debates and policy documents a precarious position which incentivises them to be risk may thus be redundant in informing the president’s averse. There are also ongoing disputes between the decisions. In their place, the advice of Trump’s trusted White House and State Department over who should cabinet secretaries and advisers is more important fill key roles. For instance, Susan Thornton, the acting than usual.

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Australian political engagement

Prime Minister Julia Gillard speaks to President Barack Obama in Washington DC, 2011 Photo: Getty

The prime minister and foreign minister should To maximise Australia’s influence with the Trump compensate for the reduced effectiveness of administration, the prime minister should make at bureaucratic communication with the Trump least one trip to Washington per year to engage key administration by assuming more personal figures who command the president’s attention. It will responsibility for managing the US-Australia be particularly important for Australia’s leaders to visit relationship. Despite the delicately-poised Australian Washington in the second half of 2017 and early 2018 Parliament and the heavy demands on their time, while the administration is still new, and government political leaders should visit Washington more agencies remain without a fully-staffed senior team of frequently than in recent years. During the seven years Trump-appointed personnel. from 2010 to 2016, the Australian prime minister met with Barack Obama in the Oval Office just three times, During their visits, Australian political leaders should once each for Prime Ministers Gillard, Abbott and dedicate considerably more time to courting Congress, Turnbull. 9 This low level of prime ministerial receptions as well as influential cabinet secretaries and White at the White House may be immaterial for the leader- House advisers. Specifically, they should focus on to-leader relationship — President Obama saw the engaging two types of individuals: those who are close Australian prime minister at various summits around to the president with a capacity to change his thinking; the world each year — but it indicates a lack of time and those who hold institutional power, such as senior spent in Washington engaging with a broad spectrum members in Congress. of key government players, particularly in Congress.

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The importance of Congress

Congress always acts as a counterweight to the lawmakers at their annual retreat. Shinzo Abe called president. While the commander-in-chief has a on key senators focused on Asia-Pacific issues — much freer hand on foreign policy than domestic including Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan and Senate affairs, Congress has several blunt instruments at Foreign Relations Asia Subcommittee Chairman Cory its disposal to shape America’s role in the world. Gardner — in spite of the fact that his meeting with These include: legislation, sanctions, determining President Trump was in Florida. And Trudeau, on a budgets for State and Defense, reviewing appointed one-day trip to Washington in February, set aside personnel at those agencies, and voting on US trade time to meet with the two most important players in agreements. Congressional influence on foreign policy Congress: Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.13 In other is highest when there exists bipartisan opposition to words, Trudeau deemed Congress so important that the president’s proposed he allocated at least a quarter of his time in Washington course of action, as to meetings on Capitol Hill. Conversely, Prime Minister Congressional influence revealed by the recent Malcolm Turnbull did not meet any members of 98-2 Senate vote to Congress during his short trip to New York in May for on foreign policy is highest impose new sanctions the Coral Sea commemorations.14 when there exists bipartisan on Russia and limit the At the foreign ministerial level, too, Canadian and British opposition to the president’s White House’s ability to ease them.10 Congress’ ministers have both outperformed their Australian proposed course of action. enduring importance on US counterparts in engaging Congress. Canadian Foreign international engagement Minister has been to Washington should not be overlooked: twice since she attended Trump’s inauguration in as Georgetown University Professor Alan Tidwell put January, and held meetings on Capitol Hill with many it last year, “without Congressional support any US of the most important players in Congress, including: strategy — towards Asia or elsewhere — is virtually Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, John Cornyn, Ben Cardin, John 15 meaningless”.11 McCain, and Susan Collins. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called on Mitch McConnell and Corker Congress has assumed greater responsibility for in Washington, and also met Paul Ryan and Mac shaping America’s role in the world under President Thornberry in . By contrast, Defence Minister Trump. A stark gap exists between Trump’s Marise Payne has not been to the United States in the transactional approach to alliances, encapsulated in his Trump era; while Foreign Minister Julie Bishop spoke “America First” foreign policy mantra, and Congress’ to members of Congress on the phone, but did not visit more traditional view of alliances and the United Capitol Hill for in-person meetings during her February States’ global role and responsibilities.12 Congressional 2017 visit to Washington.16 It takes far longer to fly interest in Asia, particularly in the Senate, remains to Washington from Canberra than either Ottawa or in spite of — and largely immune from — President London. But the point remains that senior Australian Trump’s mercurial commitment. Lobbying Congress ministers have not prioritised meetings with Congress; offers an effective way for Australia to find political the prime minister, foreign minister and defence allies in Washington and moderate the administration’s minister have not held a single meeting on Capitol Hill “America First” approach. in the first six months of the Trump administration.

So far, however, Australia’s political engagement with If, however, Australian leaders made an effort to Congress lags behind comparable US allies. Prime engage with Congress when they visit Washington, as Ministers Theresa May, Shinzo Abe and Justin Trudeau their counterparts have done, they would most likely have demonstrated a keen awareness of Congress’ be successful. Congress is very favourably disposed importance and prioritised meeting representatives and towards Australia. In the aftermath of the acrimonious senators from the outset of Trump’s presidency. During Trump-Turnbull phone call in January, more than 60 her visit to Washington in January, May specifically members of Congress reportedly contacted Australian travelled to Philadelphia to address all 280 Republican Ambassador Joe Hockey to express their solidarity.17 In

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both the Senate and the House, identical resolutions was established in 2003 to assist the congressional were introduced to underscore Congress’ “strong passage of the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement commitment to the United States-Australia alliance (AUSFTA). In addition to supporting a successful relationship”, and state that Australia was a “partner vote on the trade agreement, the caucus helped crucial to the preservation of United States national boost Australia’s profile on Capitol Hill by fostering interests”.18 Co-sponsors to these resolutions in the unprecedented levels of attention and education House and the Senate numbered almost 50, albeit with on Australian political and economic affairs among far more Democrats than Republicans across the two members of Congress.19 While the initial caucus fizzled chambers. due to a lack of support in the Senate, the reinvigorated caucus enjoys bipartisan backing in both chambers and Additionally, Congress has revitalised its support for is co-chaired by senior figures: Senators Dick Durbin Australia this year. In the aftermath of the phone call, and Roy Blunt (who are in their parties’ leadership in the Ambassador Hockey worked with allies in Congress upper chamber), and Representatives Joe Courtney to reconvene the Friends of Australia Caucus. There and Mike Gallagher.20 are hundreds of caucuses in Congress, but the current array of country-specific caucuses includes Canada, If the reinvigorated caucus has anywhere near the , India and New Zealand. The Australia Caucus level of impact of its previous incarnation — and

KEY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS Australia Caucus chairs

Roy Blunt Dick Durbin Senate Co-Chair, Senate Co-Chair, Friends of Australia Friends of Australia Caucus, Missouri Caucus, Illinois

Blunt serves as the Vice Chairman of the Senate The number two Senate Democrat, Durbin sponsored Republican Conference and was master of ceremonies the bipartisan Resolution Reaffirming Strong US- at President Trump’s inauguration. In May 2017 he Australia Alliance, and in February 2017 met with launched the caucus, declaring Australia “one of our Ambassador Hockey. Durbin said the launch of the closest friends, strongest allies, and valued economic bipartisan caucus showed “that Australia will always partners”. have partners and friends in the US Congress”.

Mike Gallagher Joe Courtney House Co-Chair, House Co-Chair, Friends of Australia Friends of Australia Caucus, Wisconsin Caucus, Connecticut

A 33-year-old freshman member of Congress, Courtney serves on the House Armed Services Gallagher previously served in the US Marine Corps, Committee and is a ranking member on its Seapower including multiple tours of Iraq. subcommittee. He has a keen interest in US-Australia military and defence industry collaboration.

8 KEY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS

Congressional leaders

Mitch McConnell Chuck Schumer Senate Majority Leader, Senate Minority Leader, Kentucky New York

McConnell, the Republican Party’s leader in the Senate, The top Senate Democrat, Schumer was first elected controls the upper chamber’s legislative schedule. to Congress in 1980 and has represented New York in McConnell met Prime Minister Turnbull in January the Senate since 1999. 2016, and is married to President Trump’s Secretary of Transportation, .

Paul Ryan Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House House Minority Leader, of Representatives, California Wisconsin

Speaker Ryan leads the Republican conference in the The Democratic Party’s leader in the House for more House, and was the party’s nominee for vice president than 14 years, Pelosi met then Prime Minister Abbott in in 2012. Ryan met Prime Minister Turnbull in September June 2014. She served as Speaker of the House from 2016 and, following the Trump-Turnbull phone call, said 2007 to 2011. Australia should not worry about the US relationship.

Foreign relations committees

Bob Corker Ben Cardin Chairman, Senate Ranking Member, Foreign Relations Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tennessee Committee, Maryland

Corker has served as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 2015, and met Foreign Relations Committee, met Prime Minister Turnbull in Minister Julie Bishop in January 2016. January 2016, and co-sponsored the February 2017 bipartisan Senate resolution reaffirming the “strong US-Australia alliance”.

Ed Royce Eliot Engel Chairman, House Ranking Member, House Committee on Foreign Committee on Foreign Affairs, California Affairs, New York

Royce has served as Chairman of the House Committee Engel has represented various New York City-based on Foreign Affairs since 2013. Royce’s congressional congressional districts since 1989 and is an outspoken district in Orange County, California includes a sizeable supporter of Israel. He was the primary sponsor of Asian-American population. the House’s February resolution supporting Australia, which attracted 33 signatories. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE | ALLIANCE 21 PROGRAM MAKE IT PERSONAL: TRUMP, CONGRESS AND AUSTRALIA’S AVENUES OF INFLUENCE

the seniority of its Senate leadership gives reason reporting on and lobbying for Australia’s interests on for optimism — it will be of considerable benefit to Capitol Hill. Only Australia, Canada and Israel have Australia. But maximising that benefit requires active a specific office of this kind in their Washington engagement by Australian political leaders when they embassies.21 Given the growing importance of are in Washington. Congress, the CLO should now be specifically tasked with arranging an intensive program of high-level Fortunately, a framework already exists to facilitate congressional meetings for a visiting prime minister or exchanges between visiting leaders and members of senior minister, including with members of the Australia Congress. The Australian Embassy’s Congressional Caucus. Indeed, time-pressed members of Congress Liaison Office (CLO), a staff of about five headed are far more likely to attend functions when a visiting by a diplomat of ambassadorial rank, is charged with prime minister or foreign minister is in attendance.

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How to engage with Congress

The prime minister and foreign minister should hold and , and the House Ways and Means tailored meetings on Capitol Hill each time they visit Committee, led by Kevin Brady and Richard Neal, are Washington, focusing on priorities such as Asian the gatekeepers for trade legislation. Also important strategic issues and trade. The key positions of interest for Australia are the Foreign Relations subcommittees in Congress for Australia — and, in fact, for all American relevant to East Asia, currently headed by Cory Gardner allies — are: the Republican and Democratic leaders in and Edward Markey in the Senate, and Ted Yoho and 22 each chamber, and the chairman and ranking members Brad Sherman in the House. of both the Senate and House Committees on Foreign Australian political leaders should follow a few broad Relations and Armed Services. In the Senate these are: rules in their engagement with Congress. First, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Bob Corker, Ben they should dedicate more attention to the Senate, Cardin, John McCain and Jack Reed; and in the House: which plays a more important role than the House in Paul Ryan, Nancy Pelosi, Ed Royce, Eliot Engel, Mac shaping foreign policy.23 Because senators serve six- Thornberry and Adam Smith. Additionally, the Senate year terms (rather than two years in the House) they Finance Committee, currently led by Orrin Hatch are therefore less constrained by day-to-day political

KEY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS Key figures on trade

Orrin Hatch Ron Wyden Chairman, Senate Ranking Member, Finance Committee, Senate Finance Utah Committee, Oregon

An 83-year-old Utahn, Hatch is the longest-serving Wyden has represented Oregon in Congress since Republican senator and consequently the President Pro 1981, and has previously served as Chair of the Senate Tempore of the Senate. Hatch is a staunch advocate for Finance and Energy Committees. Wyden also met free trade, and met Prime Minister Turnbull in January Prime Minister Turnbull in January 2016. 2016.

Kevin Brady Richard Neal Chairman, House Ways Ranking Member, House and Means Committee, Ways and Means Committee, Texas Massachusetts

As the Chairman of the powerful House Ways and In addition to his role as the Democratic Party leader on Means Committee, Brady holds a key position on the House Ways and Means Committee, Congressman issues of international trade, taxes and healthcare. Neal is an At-Large Whip for the House Democrats, co- He supported Obama-era free trade agreements with chairman of the New England Congressional Caucus. , Colombia, and Panama.

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pressures. This makes senators potentially useful allies attention.25 Senators like Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for Australia. So far this year, Republican Senators have may be well known in Australia, but their influence in been more outspoken than their House colleagues in the chamber is minor compared with lesser-known criticising President Trump, including on the Australian senior senators. alliance.24 Moreover, as there is an inverse relationship between the president’s popularity and the autonomy Finally, Australian politicians should concentrate more and independence of congressional members of the on Republicans than Democrats because Republicans president’s party, a diminution in Trump’s popularity currently control both houses of Congress, so their would likely embolden Republican senators to chart an positions and votes will largely determine the success increasingly independent course. of Trump’s domestic and international agenda. The Democratic Party’s internal debate on free trade Second, Australia’s political leaders should focus on and liberal internationalism deserves considerable senators who are influential legislators, rather than Australian attention well before the 2020 presidential gravitating towards former or future presidential primaries. But in 2017 and 2018 Australian political candidates who attract disproportionate media leaders should focus on meeting impactful Republican

KEY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS Armed services committees

John McCain Jack Reed Chairman, Senate Ranking Member, Armed Services Senate Armed Services Committee, Arizona Committee, Rhode Island

McCain is a strong supporter of the US-Australian A West Point graduate and former paratrooper, Reed alliance, and issued a stand-alone statement after the has been active on defence issues since he entered the Trump-Turnbull phone call. McCain is championing an Senate in 1997. Former President Obama considered Asia-Pacific Stability Initiative that would appropriate nominating the senator to serve as Secretary of billions of dollars for defence initiatives in Australia’s Defense, but Reed indicated that he was not interested region, as well as pushing for a major increase in US in the position. defence spending.

Mac Thornberry Adam Smith Chairman, House Ranking Member, House Committee on Armed Committee on Armed Services, Texas Services, Washington

Thornberry works closely with Senator McCain on Smith serves as the lead Democrat on the House defence issues. Thornberry has been involved in Armed Services committee, and sponsored the House national security issues for decades, having served as resolution reaffirming the US-Australia relationship. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs at the State Department during the Reagan administration.

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senators and others in Congress who wield influence is championing an Asia-Pacific Stability Initiative over issues of importance to Australia. that would appropriate billions of dollars for defence initiatives in Australia’s region.28 Senator John McCain is worthy of considerable Australian attention. McCain knows Australia well, At a more junior level, Australia should follow the lead having visited many times, including for a major address of Japanese Prime Minister Abe and engage people to the United States Studies Centre at the University like Senator Cory Gardner, Chairman of the Foreign of Sydney and high-level meetings in Canberra in Relations’ Asia subcommittee. Gardner is pursuing May.26 McCain has just been re-elected to a six-year legislation that will “mandate that the term and seems unlikely to seek re-election government enhance trade facilitation efforts and in 2022 at the age of 86.27 He is, therefore, relatively increase opportunities for US businesses to find new unconstrained by political pressures, and has used his export markets in the Asia-Pacific”. Called the Asia influence as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), the legislation Committee to advance his own agenda and criticise would also “authorise funds to bolster US military aspects of Trump’s foreign policy. At present, McCain presence in the region, grow partner nation maritime

KEY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS Asia foreign relations subcommittees

Cory Gardner Edward Markey Chairman, Senate Foreign Ranking Member, Relations Subcommittee on Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific, and Subcommittee on East Asia, International Cybersecurity Policy, the Pacific, and International Colorado Cybersecurity Policy, Massachusetts

Senator Gardner prioritises “strengthening alliances Markey sits on the Foreign Relations Committee in the (Asia-Pacific) region and promoting trade and in February 2017 co-sponsored the bipartisan agreements”. Gardner contacted Ambassador Hockey Senate resolution reaffirming the “strong US-Australia following the Trump-Turnbull phone call and tweeted alliance”. his support of Australia as a “crucial friend and ally”.

Ted Yoho Brad Sherman Chairman, House Foreign Ranking Member, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Affairs Subcommittee on Asia Asia and the Pacific, Florida and the Pacific, California

Representative Yoho labelled Australia as one of Representative Sherman co-sponsored the House America’s “strongest allies” following the Trump- resolution reaffirming the “strong US-Australia Turnbull phone call. alliance”.

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capabilities to deter aggression in their territorial This perception runs so deep in Washington that when waters, and build new counterterrorism partnership Obama came to Australia in 2011 he flew directly to programs in Southeast Asia”.29 The Australian Canberra and then on to Darwin for meetings before Embassy’s strong links in Congress and a history leaving, assiduously avoiding Sydney and the political of cooperation with congressional advisers means risk associated with a photo on the harbour. Australia has considerable capacity to shape both this bill and McCain’s Asia-Pacific Stability Initiative, The reinvigorated Australia congressional caucus as well as other significant Asia-focused legislation.30 presents an opportunity to create an exchange system These bills will follow recent congressional action that could minimise these risks. It would enable on Asia, including the Asia-Pacific Region Priority members of Congress to highlight their membership Act (co-sponsored by Colleen Hanabusa and Randy of the caucus as grounds for taking part in delegations Forbes),31 and, before that, a Senate Foreign Relations framed around the importance of the US-Australia Committee report on Asia policy by the committee’s bilateral relationship amid former chairman, Robert Menendez.32 Congressional Asia’s increasingly unstable reports on Asia are far more important, relatively strategic environment. The The secretaries of DFAT and speaking, than the reports of Australian parliamentary Australian Embassy should Defence, and other senior committees, because Congress has considerably make this case and link the more formal power vis-à-vis the executive branch than, bilateral relationship to the Australian bureaucrats, for example, Australia’s Joint Standing Committee on importance of US alliances should make time in Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade. in Asia more generally — Washington to hold meetings encouraging senators and In addition to an increase in political meetings with with staff directors on the representatives to visit Congress, senior Australian government officials can Australia during regional trips foreign relations and armed do more. The secretaries of DFAT and Defence, and that include , South services committees, in other senior Australian bureaucrats, should make time Korea and the Philippines. part to compensate for the in Washington to hold meetings with staff directors on When in Canberra, members the foreign relations and armed services committees, tyranny of distance faced by of Congress should engage in part to compensate for the tyranny of distance faced Australian political leaders. political leaders as well as the by Australian political leaders. US-Australia Parliamentary Congressional engagement, however, is not a one- Friendship Group, the congressional caucus’ Australian way street. Australian political leaders should also sister organisation. Two events each year — one in champion efforts to persuade members of Congress Washington during the Australian parliamentary break to travel to Australia. This may be harder than it in January, and a second during the congressional appears: members of Congress have been hesitant recess in August in Canberra — would be a sensible to visit Australia on congressional delegations for fear way to bolster engagement between both legislatures that their constituents might think time spent in a and provide an ongoing reason for reciprocal visits to stereotypical holiday destination was not serious work. boost mutual awareness.

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Trump’s cabinet

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop in a meeting with Vice President Mike Pence in Sydney, 2017 Photo: Getty

The relative stature and influence of key cabinet Republican, is a natural friend of Australia. During the secretaries is also worth discussing. As previously transition, Pence was instrumental in bringing several mentioned, despite the weakness of the US traditionally hawkish Republicans into the top levels bureaucracy, President Trump’s emphasis on personnel of the national security apparatus, including: Director and verbal briefing renders the relationship between of National Intelligence , CIA Director Mike a cabinet secretary and the president particularly Pompeo and United Nations Ambassador .35 important. Australian political leaders should thus adopt He is seen a stable figure in the administration and has a two-tiered strategy to engage Trump’s cabinet, with represented the president on trips to NATO and Asia. Vice President Mike Pence and Defense Secretary Jim It is nonetheless difficult to ascertain Pence’s level of Mattis standing out as the most important figures. influence. American vice presidents are generally seen as a weak figures, but and were Only Australian political leaders — as opposed to both influential in shaping the foreign policies of their bureaucratic officials — can secure meetings with respective administrations. As vice president, Pence US cabinet secretaries. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will likely remain in place until at least January 2021 has been adept in this regard, cultivating the vice and could become president in a number of unlikely but president since last year’s election and inviting him to not impossible scenarios — if Trump were to resign, be 33 visit Australia in 2017. Indeed, it is notable that Pence impeached and removed from office, or die. valued the alliance sufficiently to come to Sydney within the first three months of the Trump presidency, The second key cabinet figure is Secretary of Defense given it took former President Obama almost three Jim Mattis. A retired four-star general, Mattis is very years, and Vice President Biden more than seven years popular in , foreign policy community, to visit Australia.34 Pence, a pro-alliance, pro-trade mainstream media and Congress. He was confirmed

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by the Senate 99-1 following effusive praise from have Mattis’ level of support in Washington. Tillerson Democrats and Republicans alike. Save for a major was confirmed amid record opposition, with 43 scandal, President Trump would probably be hard senators voting against him — and is presiding over pressed to dismiss Mattis because, if he did, he an institutionally weak department.40 Although it is would trigger a major backlash from the Pentagon and impossible to ascertain Tillerson’s level of influence,41 36 Congress. Seemingly cognisant of this fact, Mattis there are doubts in Washington about how long he will has used his political capital to engage the media and remain at the helm of State, stake out status quo policy positions at odds with the as well as questions about Trump administration.37 how much he enjoys the Although it is impossible to 42 Australia can achieve a lot with Secretary Mattis alone job. For example, Tillerson ascertain Tillerson’s level of because much of the ongoing defence relationship recently unloaded on Johnny influence, there are doubts in does not require the president’s involvement. For DeStefano, head of the example, military exercises and other defence co- presidential personnel office, Washington about how long he operation typically proceeds without requiring White for torpedoing proposed will remain at the helm of State, House sign off. Mattis is very favourably disposed to nominees to senior State as well as questions about Australia, having fought alongside Australian troops in Department posts and for how much he enjoys the job. multiple wars. During his time in Afghanistan, Mattis questioning his judgement.43 wrote: “we Marines would happily storm hell itself Other cabinet secretaries that with your troops on our right flank” in a private letter deserve attention are John Kelly, the secretary of the to then-Australian SAS commander and now ASIO Department of Homeland Security, who will oversee 38 Director General Duncan Lewis. Mattis has already the implementation of the controversial refugee met Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne and deal; and economically-focused cabinet officials Defence Minister Payne.39 The foreign minister and like Commerce Secretary and Treasury prime minister should always try to see the defense Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Circumstances — such as a secretary when they visit Washington. flare-up over the refugee deal, or a change in US trade Australia should attach less priority, but nonetheless policy — could propel these cabinet members into the engage widely, with other relevant cabinet figures. first tier of personnel for Australian engagement. But Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is at this stage in the for the moment they are less important to Australia second tier of cabinet secretaries because he does not than Pence or Mattis.

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White House advisers

Canadian efforts to engage Trump’s inner circle provide senior White House adviser, we know very little about a template for Australia. Last December, Prime Minister Kushner’s worldview because his background is rather Trudeau’s principal secretary, chief of staff and the different to the well-worn pathway of senior advisers, Canadian ambassador to the United States convened who typically join an administration after decades of several times, meeting with key Trump advisers experience in government and think tanks. Jared Kushner and Steve Bannon.44 Both Kushner and Trump’s business council chair, Stephen Schwarzman, Australia should also focus on its natural allies in were also invited to Prime Minister Trudeau’s three- Trump’s White House — that is, those who share key day cabinet summit in Calgary earlier this year. This aspects of Canberra’s worldview, particularly on global concerted Canadian approach paid dividends: during trade policy and architecture. Gary Cohn appears a Trudeau’s February visit to Washington he was able to powerful player in the administration; and his fully- stave off proposed changes to the US-Canada economic staffed National Economic Council and pro-trade relationship. Close engagement with Trump’s advisers, positions are far more appealing to Australia than his especially Jared Kushner, colleagues’ emphasis on economic nationalism. Cohn also worked for prior is thus a sensible target for Australian outreach, as to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, due to As ambassador, Joe Hockey is the summit with Xi Jinping. his military background and efforts to co-ordinate on best placed Australian to engage foreign policy with Mattis, Tillerson and others. Even It should be noted that Trump insiders and should be though Cohn and McMaster co-authored the Wall turnover among White Street Journal article defending Trump’s “America empowered to do this more. House staff in any US First” approach, they are nonetheless more amenable administration is typically to Australia’s worldview than many of their White much higher than the House colleagues.46 By contrast, there is less to gain attrition rate of cabinet secretaries or members of from engaging insiders like Steve Bannon, given the Congress. The president’s advisers can easily be lack of a shared purpose between Australia’s free trade sacked, and many Washington insiders believe that agenda and Bannon’s nationalist preferences. White House Chief of Staff may only be around for months, not years. So while Australian As ambassador, Joe Hockey is the best placed political leaders should seek to build contacts with Australian to engage Trump insiders and should Trump’s inner circle, it is important they recognise be empowered to do this more. During the 2016 that many White House advisers may not last a full election campaign, Hockey held discussions with presidential term. Nevertheless, White House advisers senior advisers to Trump, including then-Senator Jeff will be important for Australia to engage in this Sessions and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, at a administration, due to the weakness of US government time when most thought a Trump election victory was departments and President Trump’s de-emphasis of impossible.47 In early 2017, Hockey met Reince Priebus seniority or subject matter expertise. and Steve Bannon after the Trump-Turnbull phone Kushner deserves the most Australian attention in call. He has also been active in facilitating discussions this respect. As the president’s son-in-law and senior between the White House and Australian companies adviser, Kushner seems unsackable so long as there is Macquarie Group and Lend Lease,48 which will help not damning evidence about him in the Trump-Russia broaden this White House’s sense of the US-Australia investigation. Kushner also appears to be influential. He relationship beyond the traditional domains of foreign has assumed a superportfolio that spans everything and defence policy. The Australian government should from US-China relations and Israeli-Palestinian peace deploy Hockey to work with Trump’s inner circle prior negotiations to reshaping the US government; and to the next Trump-Turnbull meeting, with a Canadian- has been in the room for several of the president’s style strategy for a ‘win-win’ outcome in the mould of meetings with foreign leaders.45 Unusually for a Trudeau’s women in business summit.49

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Conclusion

Following a high tempo of bilateral engagement in the For Australian political leaders, there is no substitute first half of the year — including the prime minister’s trip for a busy program of meetings in Washington. Both to New York and visits to Sydney by the vice president, the prime minister and foreign minister should visit secretaries of state and defense, and Harry Washington at least once in the remainder of this Harris — there is a risk that Australian political leaders year. The prime minister may want to follow the lead will not sufficiently engage with the key players in of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who visited Washington during the remainder of 2017. The prime Washington twice in 2009, the first year of Obama’s minister and foreign minister will see their counterparts presidency.50 Australian political leaders should modify at several international summits, including at the UN their usual pattern of engagement in Washington, with General Assembly in New York in September, the enhanced outreach to Congress, cabinet secretaries, APEC Leaders Week in Vietnam, and the East Asia and key White House advisers. To maximise Australia’s Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum in the Philippines. influence with President Trump’s administration, Any bilateral engagements at these summits, however, Australian political leaders need to make it personal. will be brief meetings on the sidelines, rather than flagship Australia-US events in the mould of the Coral Sea Commemoration in May or AUSMIN in June.

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Endnotes

1. Ryan Hawkins, “A Brief History of AUSMIN”, Landler, “Where Trump Zigs, Tillerson Zags, United States Studies Centre at the University of Putting him at Odds with the White House”, Sydney, 2 June 2017, available at: https://www. , 25 June 2017, available at: ussc.edu.au/analysis/a-brief-history-of-ausmin https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/25/world/ 2. Partnership for Public Service and Washington americas/rex-tillerson-american-diplomacy. Post Power Post, “Tracking how many html and Josh Dawsey, Eliana Johnson and key positions Trump has filled so far”, The Alex Isenstadt, “Tillerson blows up at top White Washington Post, available at: https://www. House aide”, , 28 June 2017, available washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump- at: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/28/ administration-appointee-tracker/database/ tillerson-blows-up-at-white-house-aide-240075 3. Ibid. 8. Budget Director announced a ‘Hard Power’ budget with cuts to State and 4. The slow pace of nominations, coupled with spending boost to Defense. See Russell Berman, comments by President Trump and Steve Bannon “President Trump’s ‘Hard Power’ Budget”, The indicate that the White House has little intention of Atlantic, 16 March 2017, available at: https:// filling the political-level bureaucratic appointments. www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/ In February 2017, Trump said “A lot of those jobs, president-trumps-hard-power-budget/519702/ I don’t want to appoint someone because they’re unnecessary to have. In government, we have too 9. The dates for the visits and Oval Office meetings many people”, see Jennifer Rubin, “Trump is going to were; Former PM Gillard (March 2011), Former let permanent civil servants run his administration?”, PM Abbott (June 2014), and PM Turnbull (January , 28 February 2017, available 2016). Note that Turnbull visited Washington and at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ met House Speaker Paul Ryan in September 2016, right-turn/wp/2017/02/28/trump-is-going-to-let- after seeing President Obama at the United Nations. permanent-civil-service-run-his-administration/?utm_ 10. Lisa Mascaro and Michael Memoli, “Senate term=.65f752d581f8 . Additionally, Chief Strategist passes Russian sanctions, setting up potential Steve Bannon said in February 2017 that Trump’s showdown with White House”, LA Times, 15 administration is pursuing a “deconstruction of June 2017, available at: http://www.latimes.com/ the administrative state” see Philip Rucker and politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington- Robert Costa, “Bannon vows a daily fight for updates-1497540763-htmlstory.html ‘deconstruction of the administrative state’”, The 11. Alan Tidwell, “US Congress and the politics of Washington Post, 23 February 2017, available at: strategy”, The Centre of Gravity Series, Coral https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/top-wh- Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, September strategist-vows-a-daily-fight-for-deconstruction-of- 2016, p.2, available at: http://sdsc.bellschool. the-administrative-state/2017/02/23/03f6b8da- anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publications/ f9ea-11e6-bf01-d47f8cf9b643_story. attachments/2016-10/cog_28_web_v2.pdf html?utm_term=.2103fa2bb041. 12. Ashley Townshend, “America First: US Asia Policy 5. Gardiner Harris, “Will Cuts Hurt Diplomacy? Under President Trump”, United States Studies Tillerson Tries to Ease Senate’s Worries”, The Centre at the University of Sydney, March 2017, New York Times, 13 June 2017, available at: available at: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/13/world/ america-first-us-asia-policy-under-president-trump rex-tillerson-senate-state-department.html 13. CBC News, “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets 6. David Sanger, Gerdiner Harris and Mark Landler, U.S. President Donald Trump,” CBC News, 13 “Where Trump Zigs, Tillerson Zags, Putting him February 2017, available at: http://www.cbc. at Odds with the White House”, The New York ca/news/politics/prime-minister-justin-trudeau- Times, 25 June 2017, available at: https://www. meets-u-s-president-donald-trump-1.3980442. nytimes.com/2017/06/25/world/americas/ 14. Turnbull’s only visit to the United States in the rex-tillerson-american-diplomacy.html Trump era occurred the week before the Australian 7. There is nobody in line to be nominated for the federal budget. He spent time in New York, key Asia policy job at State, despite tensions and held meetings with Harry Harris, New York over ’s nuclear and missile programs. Police Department officials and business figures. See David Sanger, Gardiner Harris and Mark Congress was sitting at the time — the House

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passed a healthcare bill the same day as the Their lobbying activity is light. A more select group Coral Sea commemoration event, which delayed of embassies use a diplomat to cover Congress, President Trump’s arrival in New York — and there and may have a small staff supporting them. The is no indication that any members of Congress embassies of Australia, Canada, and Israel, have attended the Coral Sea event. Additionally, note offices that both report on Congress and undertake a that Turnbull met several members of Congress on broad range of other lobbying activities”. See Tidwell his visits to Washington in January and September “US Congress and the politics of strategy”, p6. 2016, before President Trump was elected; 22. Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittees, the political context is now very different. available at: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/ 15. “Chrystia Freeland heads to US to meet Secretary about/subcommittees; and House Foreign of State Rex Tillerson”, The Canadian Press, 7 Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, February 2017, available at: http://globalnews.ca/ available at: https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/ news/3232650/chrystia-freeland-us-rex-tillerson/ subcommittee/asia-and-the-pacific/ 16. To the best of the author’s knowledge, the only 23. For example, the Senate has exclusive power meetings between the Australian prime minister, to review and provide advice on Presidential foreign minister and defence minister and a nominees for senior positions at all government member of Congress in the Trump era were held agencies, including State and Defense. in Canberra, with Senator John McCain. Foreign 24. Dougal Robinson, “Congress rallies around Australia” Minister Bishop spoke to members of Congress The Lowy Interpreter, 9 February 2017, available by phone, but has not held an in-person meeting at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/ on Capitol Hill during the Trump era; neither Prime congress-rallies-around-australia, and Dougal Minister Turnbull nor Defence Minister Payne have Robinson, “On Australia, rank-and-file House visited Washington since Trump’s inauguration. Republicans are nowhere to be seen,” The Lowy See John Kehoe, “Julie Bishop repairs relations Interpreter, 15 February 2017, available at: https:// with Trump White House”, Australian Financial www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-rank- Review, 22 February 2017, available at: http:// and-file-house-republicans-are-nowhere-be-seen www.afr.com/news/julie-bishop-repairs-relations- 25. Junior Senators with presidential ambitions with-trump-white-house-20170221-gui8jt like Rubio are relatively insignificant legislators, 17. Cameron Stewart, “John McCain: the ally-in-chief although they can drive a lot of press attention if drops in”, The Australian, 29 May 2017, available they support Australia and break with Trump. at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/ 26. Senator John McCain, “Speech: Senator John inquirer/john-mccain-the-allyinchief-drops-in/news- McCain’s Alliance 21 Lecture”, The United States story/c9584eb33f4f5bfd6244d20cd0b11312 Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, 30 May 18. Ben Cardin, “Bipartisan Senators Introduce Resolution 2017, available at: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/ Reaffirming Strong U.S.-Australia Alliance”, speech-senator-john-mccains-alliance-21-lecture Cardin for Maryland, 7 February 2017, available 27. Burgess Everett, “McCain’s opponent: He might at: https://www.cardin.senate.gov/newsroom/ die in office”, Politico, 25 August 2016, available press/release/bipartisan-senators-introduce- at: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/ resolution-reaffirming-strong-us-australia-alliance kelli-ward-john-mccain-age-227433 19. Tidwell, “US Congress and the politics of strategy”. 28. Gordon Lubold, “U.S. Wants to Spend Added 20. Senator Roy Blunt, “Blunt, Durbin Launch Senate Billions on Military in Asia”, Wall St Journal, Friends of Australia Caucus”, Roy Blunt, 3 May 7 March 2017, available at: https://www.wsj. 2017, available at: https://www.blunt.senate. com/articles/u-s-wants-to-spend-added- gov/public/index.cfm/2017/5/blunt-durbin- billions-on-military-in-asia-1494189492 launch-senate-friends-of-australia-caucus 29. Senator Cory Gardner, “Gardner Gives Keynote 21. This is asserted by Georgetown University Professor Address At Seventh Annual CSIS South China Alan Tidwell in his October 2016 report: “Several Sea Conference”, Senator’s website, 18 July larger embassies hire a locally engaged staff member, 2017, available at: https://www.gardner. usually a former staffer from Capitol Hill, to cover senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/ Congress. The primary task of these small offices gardner-gives-keynote-address-at-seventh- is reporting on relevant events to their embassy. annual-csis-south-china-sea-conference

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30. The Australian Embassy is engaged on 10 December 2016, available at: http://www. this legislation, as well as ARIA. Author’s theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/ meetings in Washington DC, April 2017. greg-sheridan/australia-can-influence-trump- 31. H.R.4495 - Asia-Pacific Region Priority Act, 10 administration-to-asias-benefit/news-story June 2014, Congress.Gov, available at: https:// /0b81b2cfa1413f10af6ba9b985d963e8 www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house- 39. Nick Miller, “Australia mulls bigger commitment to bill/4495?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B Islamic State fight,” The Sydney Morning Herald, %22asia%22%2C%22asia%22%5D%7D 17 February 2017, available at: http://www.smh. 32. Senator Robert Menendez, “Re-balancing com.au/world/australia-mulls-bigger-commitment- the Rebalance: Resourcing U.S. Diplomatic to-islamic-state-fight-20170216-gueydn.html and Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region”, Committee Christopher Pyne, “Minister Pyne discusses the on Foreign Relations United States Senate, 17 strength of Australian Defence industry with the April 2014, available at: https://www.foreign. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis”, 7 April senate.gov/imo/media/doc/872692.pdf 2017, available at: https://www.minister.defence. 33. Bishop spoke to Pence twice between 27 and 30 gov.au/minister/christopher-pyne/media-releases/ January, and they met in person on 21 February minister-pyne-discusses-strength-australian-defence in Washington. Henry Belot, “Julie Bishop meets 40. Gardiner Harris, “Rex Tillerson Is Confirmed as Mike Pence in Washington to discuss military in Secretary of State Amid Record Opposition”, New Middle East, refugee resettlement”, ABC News, York Times, 1 February 2017, available at: https:// 22 February 2017, available at: http://www.abc. www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/us/politics/rex- net.au/news/2017-02-22/julie-bishop-meets-mike- tillerson-secretary-of-state-confirmed.html pence-rex-tillerson-diplomatic-visit/8291844 41. The White House probably appreciates the 34. Jacqueline Williams, “Mike Pence, on Charm fact that Tillerson’s low public profile is not Offensive in Australia, Confirms ‘Historic Alliance’”, driving media attention, a consideration New York Times, 21 April 2017, available at: that may strengthen his position. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/21/world/ 42. Author’s meetings in Washington DC, April 2017. australia/mike-pence-visit-sydney-turnbull.html 43. Josh Dawsey, Eliana Johnson and Alex Isenstadt, 35. Josh Rogin, “Vice President Pence is quietly “Tillerson blows up at top White House aide”. becoming a foreign policy power player”, Washington Post, 5 March 2017, available at: https://www. 44. Brendan Thomas-Noone, “Saving NAFTA: washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/ Canada’s three-point playbook”, The Lowy vice-president-pence-is-quietly-becoming- Interpreter, 24 February 2017, available at: a-foreign-policy-power-player/2017/03/05/ https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/ e347c394-0048-11e7-8f41-ea6ed597e4ca_ saving-nafta-canada-s-three-point-playbook story.html?utm_term=.1a3e142c1d59 45. David Ignatius, “Trump is now the CEO of a 36. Although somewhat analogous similar circumstances very public company. He should start acting did not stop Trump from firing James Comey, the like it”, Washington Post, 28 March 2017, former FBI director’s reputation with Congress available at: https://www.washingtonpost. was decidedly mixed before he was fired, com/opinions/trump-is-now-the-ceo-of-a- whereas Mattis retains strong support from very-public-company/2017/03/28/69e7588c- Congress. Unlike Comey, Mattis is not presiding 13f5-11e7-833c-503e1f6394c9_story. over an inquiry into the Trump administration. html?utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&utm_ 37. Brendan Thomas-Noone and Ashley Townshend, medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_ “Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis has set the term=.3376b88df031 tone for Donald Trump in Asia”, The Sydney 46. H.R. McMaster and Gary D. Cohn, “America Morning Herald, 16 February 2017, available at: First Doesn’t Mean America Alone”, The Wall http://www.smh.com.au/comment/secretary- Street Journal, 30 May 2017, available at: of-defence-jim-mattis-has-set-the-tone-for- https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first- donald-trump-in-asia-20170215-gudxzt.html doesnt-mean-america-alone-1496187426 38. Greg Sheridan, “Australia can influence Trump 47. John Kehoe, “Trade: As TPP stalls, Joe Hockey to administration, to Asia’s benefit”, The Australian, Donald Trump: Trade ‘made America great’”, The

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Australian Financial Review, 22 May 2016, available talk-infrastructure-20170213-guc6ma at: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/trade-as- 49. Trudeau’s strategy was particularly adept: though tpp-stalls-joe-hockey-to-donald-trump-trade-made- he is a progressive leader, Trudeau was nonetheless america-great-20160521-gp0r3i#ixzz4fKVG27n9 and able to find common purpose with Trump’s Leigh Sales and Andrew Dickson, “Donald Trump: inner circle through Trump’s daughter, Ivanka. Presidential nominee has split the Republican Party, Joe Hockey says”, The Australian Broadcasting 50. Rudd visited Washington in March and November Corporation, 20 July 2016, available at: http:// 2009. See, Michelle Grattan, “Obama lauds Rudd www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-20/donald-trump- in ‘meeting of the minds’”, The Sydney Morning has-split-republicans-joe-hockey-says/7643818 Herald, 26 March 2009, available at: http://www. 48. John Kehoe, “Australia and Donald Trump smh.com.au/national/obama-lauds-rudd-in-meeting- administration talk infrastructure”, The Australian of-the-minds-20090325-9aip.html and The White Financial Review, 14 February 2016, available House, “Visit by Australian Prime Minister Rudd”, at: http://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/ available at: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/ australia-and-donald-trump-administration- the-press-office/visit-australian-prime-minister-rudd

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About the author

Dougal Robinson Research Fellow, Alliance 21 Program United States Studies Centre

Dougal Robinson is a Research Fellow in the Alliance 21 Program at the United States Studies Centre, where he works on the US-Australia bilateral relationship, US foreign policy, and the US Congress. A regular media contributor, Dougal’s op-eds have appeared in national newspapers and his analysis has been quoted by international outlets, including the , Financial Times and New York Times.

Previously, Dougal was at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, where he worked on Australia’s bilateral relationship with both the United States and China. Prior to joining DFAT, he was a tutor in US politics and foreign policy at the University of Sydney, researcher in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, and completed a three-month non- partisan placement on the foreign policy staff of Senator Marco Rubio as an AAA-ANU Congressional Research Fellow.

Dougal holds a BA with First Class Honours from the University of Sydney.

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank all individuals who generously lent their time and expertise to this report. Several people provided comments and insights at various stages of the process, including James Brown, Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Jared Mondschein, Finlay Robinson, Bruce Herron, Lily Black and anonymous reviewers. The author is particularly grateful to Ashley Townshend, Susan Beale and Drew Sheldrick for their tireless efforts in the final weeks before publication. Special thanks to Alliance 21 interns Caitlin Gauci — who provided valuable research support over several months — and Ryan Hawkins. The final report has been enriched by the input and advice of all involved.

23 United States Studies Centre Institute Building (H03) The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Australia Phone: +61 2 9351 7249 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @ussc Website: ussc.edu.au