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Egypt After Elections: Towards the Second Republic?

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Egypt After Elections: Towards the Second Republic? EGYPT AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC? Egypt After Elections: Towards the Second Republic? AHMED ABD RABOU* ABSTRACT t was a watershed moment in Egypt’s While Mohamed Morsi was being transition to democracy when the named as the !fth president of the ISupreme Presidential Electoral Republic of Egypt and the !rst person Commission (SPEC) announced that to occupy the post since the January /QJCOGF/QTUKYCUGNGEVGFCUVJGſHVJ 25 revolution, a harsh battle was going on among di"erent political RTGUKFGPVQHVJG4GRWDNKEQH'I[RVUKPEG actors to decide the political future of its establishment in 1952. President the nation. Elected on the basis of a /QTUKECOGVQQEEWR[VJGRQUVVJCVHQT complementary constitution created VJGſTUVVKOGKP'I[RVŏUOQFGTPJKUVQT[ solely by a military that had grabbed JCF DGGP XCECPV HQT OQPVJU 5KPEG power over a wide range of political VJGQWUVKPIQH/WDCTCMQP(GDTWCT[ and security issues, Morsi is torn now ſNNKPIVJGRQUVQHVJGRTGUKFGPE[ between both the constitutional and the revolutionary legitimacies JCU DGGP VJQWIJV QH CU QPG VJG RKNNCTU and as a result he needs to make QH'I[RVKCPUVCDKNKV[CPFTGSWKTGFHQTC compromises to satisfy all actors. Will UWEEGUUHWN OQXG VQ FGOQETCE[ /QTUK he be able to do so? YQPVJGRTGUKFGPE[HQNNQYKPICEQORGVK- Can he harness the military, the VKXGTWPQHHGNGEVKQPKPVJGGPFTGEGKXKPI intelligence, the presidency, and RGTEGPVQHVJQUGYJQVWTPGFQWVKP other deep institutions in a country where his political a#liation was NQPI NKPGU VQ ECUV VJGKT DCNNQVU FGHGCV- for six decades considered illegal? KPI #JOGF 5JCſS C JCTFNKPGT YKVJ C Will Morsi meet regular Egyptians? OKNKVCT[DCEMITQWPFCPFVJGNCUVRTKOG high expectations in the political, OKPKUVGT FWTKPI /WDCTCMŏU GTC 6JG economic, and social spheres? These presidential election was not a normal questions will be examined in this one; instead it was a harsh battle and paper as part of an analysis of the implication of latest the presidential election in Egypt. * Cairo University, [email protected] Insight Turkey Vol. 14 / No. 3 / 2012 pp. 15-24 SUMMER 2012 15 AHMED ABD RABOU JCUOCP[KORNKECVKQPUHQTVJGHWVWTGQH WPQHſEKCNECORCKIPUHQTVJGRTGUKFGPE[ Egyptian politics. Pushing Egyptians to were started by many potential candi- dates. Initially, the MB de- The initial reaction of many political clared that it would not com- forces to the results of the !rst round, RGVGHQTVJGRQUV (QNNQYKPI VJG CRRTQXCN including the revolutionary youth, was to QH VJG EQPUVKVWVKQPCN FGENC- either boycott the election or to demand ration, it became obvious that the results were invalidated VJCVUQOGQHVJGTWNGUQPVJG presidential electoral process choose between two extremes in the run- YGTG PQV HCKT 6JG rules stipulate that QHHFGNC[KPIVJGQHſEKCNCPPQWPEGOGPV candidates have to be born in Egypt to QHVJGYKPPGTHQTVJTGGFC[UCPFVJGTW- Egyptian parents, not have dual nation- OQTUQHbehind the scene deals between CNKV[CPFPQVDGOCTTKGFVQCHQTGKIPGT the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the 6JKTV[ /2U QT CV NGCUV GNKIKDNG 5WRTGOG%QWPEKNQHVJG#TOGF(QTEGU XQVGTUKPFKHHGTGPVIQXGTPQTCVGUYKVJ 5%#( CTG DWV UQOG QH EQPVTQXGTUKCN at least 1,000 voters in each governor- GXGPVUQHVJGGNGEVKQP 6JKURCRGTYKNN ate, also must endorse them.1 However, describe the electoral process, analyze the most controversial rule was Article the results and voting behavior, and ex- 28, which stipulates that the decisions COKPGVJGKORNKECVKQPUHQT'I[RVŏURQ- QHVJG52'%CTGſPCNCPFECPPQVDGCR- NKVKECNHWVWTG RGCNGF 6JKU CTVKENG YCU FGDCVGF CPF opposed by activists and potential can- The Presidential Electoral Pro- didates, including Mohamed ElBaradei, cess: An Unfair Game? VJGHQTOGTFKTGEVQTIGPGTCNQHVJG+PVGT- national Atomic Energy Agency. But +P QPG QH VJG NQPIGUV OWNVKECPFKFCVG when Islamists rallied behind the dec- elections in modern Egyptian history, NCTCVKQPDNQEMKPICP[OQXGUVQEJCPIG VJG RTGUKFGPVKCN GNGEVQTCN RTQEGUU QHſ- VJGTWNGU'N$CTCFGKYCUHQTEGFVQRWNN EKCNN[ VQQM OQTG VJCP FC[U HTQO QWV QH VJG GNGEVKQP ENCKOKPI VJG TWNGU March 10, 2012, when registration YGTGPQVHCKT2 started, to June 24, 2012, when Morsi # VQVCN QH ECPFKFCVGU QHſEKCNN[ was announced as the winner and the TGIKUVGTGF HQT VJG TCEG KPENWFKPI VYQ ſHVJRTGUKFGPVQH'I[RV1PVJGITQWPF HTQO VJG /$ YJKEJ JCF EJCPIGF KVU JQYGXGTVJGEQPVGUVVQQMOWEJNQPIGT OKPFCPFFGEKFGFVQTWPECPFKFCVGUHQT (QNNQYKPIVJG/CTEJTGHGTGP- VJGRQUV6JG52'%FKUSWCNKſGFECP- FWO QP VJG 5%#(GPFQTUGF EQPUVKVW- didates, including Khayrat Elshater, a tional declaration, which was approved JCTF NKPG OGODGT QH VJG /$ *C\GO D[ RGTEGPV QH VJG TGIKUVGTGF XQV- 5CNCJ #DQ +UOCKN C RQRWNCT 5CNCſUV GTUCHVGTVJG+UNCOKUVUTCNNKGFDGJKPFKV ſIWTGCPF1OCT5WNGKOCPVJGHQTOGT 16 INSIGHT TURKEY EGYPT AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC? FKTGEVQT QH 'I[RVKCP KPVGNNKIGPEG YJQ UCOGRQNKVKECNGSWCVKQPQHVJG/WDCTCM YCUCNUQVJGſTUVCPFNCUVXKEGRTGUKFGPV GTC6JGKPKVKCNTGCEVKQPQHOCP[RQNKVK- WPFGT /WDCTCM 6JG +UNCOKUVU YJQ ECNHQTEGUVQVJGTGUWNVUQHVJGſTUVTQWPF JCXG CEEWUGF VJG 52'% QH RQNKVKEK\KPI including the revolutionary youth, was its decisions, harshly opposed these rul- to either boycott the election or to de- KPIUDWVKVYCUVQQNCVGHQTVJGOVQTGCN- mand that the results were invalidated, a K\GVJCVVJGTWNGUQHVJGICOGJCFPGXGT call that spread around the country. DGGPHCKT#HGYYGGMUDGHQTGVJGſTUV $GVYGGPVJGſTUVCPFUGEQPFTQWPFU TQWPFVJG5%#(TCVKſGFCNCYCFQRVGF VYQ OCKP GXGPVU VQQM RNCEG (KTUV by the Islamist-dominated People’s As- /WDCTCM YCU LCKNGF HQT NKHG DWV RTQ- UGODN[ VJG NQYGT JQWUG QH VJG 'I[R- VGUVUGTWRVGFCVVJGGZQPGTCVKQPQHHQWT VKCPRCTNKCOGPV VJCVHQTOCNN[DCTTGFVJG KPVGTKQTOKPKUVT[QHſEKCNUCPFVYQNQECN NCUVRTKOGOKPKUVGTQHVJG/WDCTCMGTC UGEWTKV[EJKGHUYJQYGTGQPVTKCNCNQPI- #JOGF 5JCſS HTQO TWPPKPI HQT VJG UKFG /WDCTCM CPF ENGCTGF QH EQORNKE- presidency by stipulating that “any pres- KV[ KP MKNNKPI RTQVGUVGTU 5GEQPF QPN[ ident, vice president, prime minister or VYQ FC[U DGHQTG VJG UGEQPF TQWPF QH NGCFGTQT UGPKQTOGODGT QHVJGPQY voting, the High Constitutional Court dissolved National Demo- ETCVKE2CTV[KUDCTTGFHTQO Only one description could be said for exercising political rights Egyptian voting behavior: “unexpected”. HQT [GCTUŒ *QYGXGT two days later the SPEC Almost all the polls, analyses, and TV talk CEEGRVGFCPCRRGCNſNGFD[ shows failed to predict the way Egyptians 5JCſSCICKPUVJKUGZENWUKQP would cast their ballots CPFCNNQYGFJKODCEMKPVQ the contest; again according to Article (HCC) dissolved the People’s Assem- CP[52'%FGEKUKQPYCUſPCN bly and ruled that the impeachment law, 6JG TGUWNVU QH VJG ſTUV TQWPF QH YJKEJ JCF GNKOKPCVGF 5JCſS HTQO VJG VJG GNGEVKQP /C[ CPF UJQEMGF race, was unconstitutional. Both events many Egyptians as Mohamed Morsi YGTGVJQWIJVVQDGPGſV/QTUKCUOCP[ ECOGſTUVQWVQHVQVCNQHECPFKFCVGU RQNKVKECN HQTEGU UVCTVGF VQ TGCNK\G VJCV YKVJRGTEGPVQHXQVGUCPF#JOGF VJGTGOKIJVDGCTGCNEJCPEGHQT5JCſS 5JCſSECOGUGEQPFYKVJRGTEGPV CPFVJCVQNFTGIKOGYCUſIJVKPIVQIGV *COFGGP5CDCJK CRQRWNCTNGHVKUVCEVKX- DCEMKPVQRQNKVKEU5WDUGSWGPVN[OCP[ KUV #DWN(QVQWJ CHQTOGT/$ſIWTG FGEKFGF VQ XQVG HQT /QTUK KP QTFGT VQ CPF#OT/QWUUC VJGHQTOGTUGETGVCT[ GZENWFG5JCſS IGPGTCNQHVJG#TCD.GCIWG ECOGVJKTF (KPCNN[ VJG UGEQPF TQWPF QH XQVKPI HQWTVJCPFſHVJKPVJCVQTFGT0QYXQV- VQQM RNCEG QP ,WPG CPF 9JKNG ers had to select between extremes: it voters were casting their ballots in the was either the MB or the old regime, the NCUV OKPWVGU QH VJG UGEQPF FC[ VJG SUMMER 2012 17 AHMED ABD RABOU 5%#( CPPQWPEGF C EQORNGOGPVCT[ YQWNF PQV JCXG C TGCN EJCPEG 6JKTF constitution declaration that returned VJG/$YQWNFDGRCKPHWNN[RWPKUJGFD[ to it all legislative powers and gave it voters, and their candidate, Morsi, who was initially nominated as an The turnout in both rounds was lower CNVGTPCVKXGHQTVJGUVTQPIOCP than expected when compared to the Khayrat Elshater, would not turnout in the parliamentary election JCXGCEJCPEG#PFHQWTVJG voters in rural areas would C XGVQ QXGT C YKFG TCPIG QH RQNKVKECN go conservative, while those in urban and security issues, changing the bal- areas would vote either liberal or pro- CPEGQHRQYGTKPKVUHCXQT(KPCNN[CH- gressive. ter much delay where both candidates 6JGTGUWNVUQHDQVJTQWPFUJQYGXGT claimed victory, the SPEC announced YGTGOWEJFKHHGTGPV(KTUVVJGVWTPQWV VJCV/QTUKYCUVJGYKPPGTQHVJKUNQPI KPVJGſTUVTQWPFYCUNQYDCTGN[TGCEJ- and controversial contest, a result that KPI RGTEGPV It is true that turnout was welcomed in the street. UWTIGFKPVJGNCUVHGYJQWTUQHVJGUGE- ond day in the second round, ultimately Egyptian Voting Behavior: reaching 50 percent, but the turnout in The Unexpected both rounds was lower than expected when compared to the turnout in the 1PN[ QPG FGUETKRVKQP EQWNF DG UCKF RCTNKCOGPVCT[ GNGEVKQP 6JGTG CTG PQV HQT 'I[RVKCP XQVKPI DGJCXKQT őWPGZ- [GVENGCTTGCUQPUHQTVJKUNQYRCTVKEKRC- RGEVGFŒ#NOQUVCNNVJGRQNNUCPCN[UGU VKQPDWVUQOGTGHGTVQVJGHCEVVJCVOQUV CPF68VCNMUJQYUHCKNGFVQRTGFKEVVJG 'I[RVKCPUYGTGHGFWRYKVJRQNKVKEKCPU way Egyptians would cast their bal- due to the prolonged transitional period. NQVU#EEQTFKPIVQCYKFGTCPIGQHRQNNU Another reason might be that the disap- CPFCPCN[UGUDGHQTGVJGGNGEVKQPUQOG RQKPVKPIRGTHQTOCPEGQHVJGRCTNKCOGPV prepositions on Egyptian voting behav- JCUUJQEMGF'I[RVKCPUCPFRWUJGFVJGO KQT YGTG CU HQNNQYU (KTUV VJG VWTPQWV CYC[ HTQO XQVKPI KP VJG RTGUKFGPVKCN would be high and would exceed the election. A third reason might be that a RGTEGPV VWTPQWV HQT VJG RCTNKCOGP- NCTIGPWODGTQH[QWVJCPFQVJGTNKDGTCN tary elections that were held earlier in CPFUQEKCNHQTEGUFGEKFGFVQDQ[EQVVVJKU the year. Second, the contest would be GNGEVKQP UKPEG OCP[ QH VJGO UCY KV CU OCKPN[DGVYGGP#DWN(QVQQJCEGPVTKUV CP WPHCKT EQPVGUV QT UKORN[ OCP[ FKF ECPFKFCVG YKVJ CP +UNCOKE DCEMITQWPF
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