AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC?

Egypt After Elections: Towards the Second Republic?

AHMED ABD RABOU*

ABSTRACT t was a watershed moment in Egypt’s While was being transition to democracy when the named as the !fth president of the ISupreme Presidential Electoral Republic of Egypt and the !rst person Commission (SPEC) announced that to occupy the post since the January /QJCOGF/QTUKYCUGNGEVGFCUVJGſHVJ 25 revolution, a harsh battle was going on among di"erent political RTGUKFGPVQHVJG4GRWDNKEQH'I[RVUKPEG actors to decide the political future of its establishment in 1952. President the nation. Elected on the basis of a /QTUKECOGVQQEEWR[VJGRQUVVJCVHQT complementary constitution created VJGſTUVVKOGKP'I[RVŏUOQFGTPJKUVQT[ solely by a military that had grabbed JCF DGGP XCECPV HQT  OQPVJU 5KPEG power over a wide range of political VJGQWUVKPIQH/WDCTCMQP(GDTWCT[ and security issues, Morsi is torn now ſNNKPIVJGRQUVQHVJGRTGUKFGPE[ between both the constitutional and the revolutionary legitimacies JCU DGGP VJQWIJV QH CU QPG VJG RKNNCTU and as a result he needs to make QH'I[RVKCPUVCDKNKV[CPFTGSWKTGFHQTC compromises to satisfy all actors. Will UWEEGUUHWN OQXG VQ FGOQETCE[ /QTUK he be able to do so? YQPVJGRTGUKFGPE[HQNNQYKPICEQORGVK- Can he harness the military, the VKXGTWPQHHGNGEVKQPKPVJGGPFTGEGKXKPI intelligence, the presidency, and RGTEGPVQHVJQUGYJQVWTPGFQWVKP other deep institutions in a country where his political a#liation was NQPI NKPGU VQ ECUV VJGKT DCNNQVU FGHGCV- for six decades considered illegal? KPI #JOGF 5JCſS C JCTFNKPGT YKVJ C Will Morsi meet regular ? OKNKVCT[DCEMITQWPFCPFVJGNCUVRTKOG high expectations in the political, OKPKUVGT FWTKPI /WDCTCMŏU GTC 6JG economic, and social spheres? These presidential election was not a normal questions will be examined in this one; instead it was a harsh battle and paper as part of an analysis of the implication of latest the presidential election in Egypt. * University, [email protected]

Insight Turkey Vol. 14 / No. 3 / 2012 pp. 15-24 SUMMER 2012 15 AHMED ABD RABOU

JCUOCP[KORNKECVKQPUHQTVJGHWVWTGQH WPQHſEKCNECORCKIPUHQTVJGRTGUKFGPE[ Egyptian politics. Pushing Egyptians to were started by many potential candi- dates. Initially, the MB de- The initial reaction of many political clared that it would not com- forces to the results of the !rst round, RGVGHQTVJGRQUV (QNNQYKPI VJG CRRTQXCN including the revolutionary youth, was to QH VJG EQPUVKVWVKQPCN FGENC- either boycott the election or to demand ration, it became obvious that the results were invalidated VJCVUQOGQHVJGTWNGUQPVJG presidential electoral process choose between two extremes in the run- YGTG PQV HCKT 6JG rules stipulate that QHHFGNC[KPIVJGQHſEKCNCPPQWPEGOGPV candidates have to be born in Egypt to QHVJGYKPPGTHQTVJTGGFC[UCPFVJGTW- Egyptian parents, not have dual nation- OQTUQHbehind the scene deals between CNKV[CPFPQVDGOCTTKGFVQCHQTGKIPGT the (MB) and the 6JKTV[ /2U QT CV NGCUV  GNKIKDNG 5WRTGOG%QWPEKNQHVJG#TOGF(QTEGU XQVGTUKPFKHHGTGPVIQXGTPQTCVGUYKVJ 5%#(  CTG DWV UQOG QH EQPVTQXGTUKCN at least 1,000 voters in each governor- GXGPVUQHVJGGNGEVKQP 6JKURCRGTYKNN ate, also must endorse them.1 However, describe the electoral process, analyze the most controversial rule was Article the results and voting behavior, and ex- 28, which stipulates that the decisions COKPGVJGKORNKECVKQPUHQT'I[RVŏURQ- QHVJG52'%CTGſPCNCPFECPPQVDGCR- NKVKECNHWVWTG RGCNGF 6JKU CTVKENG YCU FGDCVGF CPF opposed by activists and potential can- The Presidential Electoral Pro- didates, including Mohamed ElBaradei, cess: An Unfair Game? VJGHQTOGTFKTGEVQTIGPGTCNQHVJG+PVGT- national Atomic Energy Agency. But +P QPG QH VJG NQPIGUV OWNVKECPFKFCVG when Islamists rallied behind the dec- elections in modern Egyptian history, NCTCVKQPDNQEMKPICP[OQXGUVQEJCPIG VJG RTGUKFGPVKCN GNGEVQTCN RTQEGUU QHſ- VJGTWNGU'N$CTCFGKYCUHQTEGFVQRWNN EKCNN[ VQQM OQTG VJCP  FC[U HTQO QWV QH VJG GNGEVKQP ENCKOKPI VJG TWNGU March 10, 2012, when registration YGTGPQVHCKT2 started, to June 24, 2012, when Morsi # VQVCN QH  ECPFKFCVGU QHſEKCNN[ was announced as the winner and the TGIKUVGTGF HQT VJG TCEG KPENWFKPI VYQ ſHVJRTGUKFGPVQH'I[RV1PVJGITQWPF HTQO VJG /$ YJKEJ JCF EJCPIGF KVU JQYGXGTVJGEQPVGUVVQQMOWEJNQPIGT OKPFCPFFGEKFGFVQTWPECPFKFCVGUHQT (QNNQYKPIVJG/CTEJTGHGTGP- VJGRQUV6JG52'%FKUSWCNKſGFECP- FWO QP VJG 5%#(GPFQTUGF EQPUVKVW- didates, including Khayrat Elshater, a tional declaration, which was approved JCTF NKPG OGODGT QH VJG /$ *C\GO D[  RGTEGPV QH VJG TGIKUVGTGF XQV- 5CNCJ #DQ +UOCKN C RQRWNCT 5CNCſUV GTUCHVGTVJG+UNCOKUVUTCNNKGFDGJKPFKV ſIWTGCPF1OCT5WNGKOCPVJGHQTOGT

16 INSIGHT TURKEY EGYPT AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC?

FKTGEVQT QH 'I[RVKCP KPVGNNKIGPEG YJQ UCOGRQNKVKECNGSWCVKQPQHVJG/WDCTCM YCUCNUQVJGſTUVCPFNCUVXKEGRTGUKFGPV GTC6JGKPKVKCNTGCEVKQPQHOCP[RQNKVK- WPFGT /WDCTCM 6JG +UNCOKUVU YJQ ECNHQTEGUVQVJGTGUWNVUQHVJGſTUVTQWPF JCXG CEEWUGF VJG 52'% QH RQNKVKEK\KPI including the revolutionary youth, was its decisions, harshly opposed these rul- to either boycott the election or to de- KPIUDWVKVYCUVQQNCVGHQTVJGOVQTGCN- mand that the results were invalidated, a K\GVJCVVJGTWNGUQHVJGICOGJCFPGXGT call that spread around the country. DGGPHCKT#HGYYGGMUDGHQTGVJGſTUV $GVYGGPVJGſTUVCPFUGEQPFTQWPFU TQWPFVJG5%#(TCVKſGFCNCYCFQRVGF VYQ OCKP GXGPVU VQQM RNCEG (KTUV by the Islamist-dominated People’s As- /WDCTCM YCU LCKNGF HQT NKHG DWV RTQ- UGODN[ VJG NQYGT JQWUG QH VJG 'I[R- VGUVUGTWRVGFCVVJGGZQPGTCVKQPQHHQWT VKCPRCTNKCOGPV VJCVHQTOCNN[DCTTGFVJG KPVGTKQTOKPKUVT[QHſEKCNUCPFVYQNQECN NCUVRTKOGOKPKUVGTQHVJG/WDCTCMGTC UGEWTKV[EJKGHUYJQYGTGQPVTKCNCNQPI- #JOGF 5JCſS HTQO TWPPKPI HQT VJG UKFG /WDCTCM CPF ENGCTGF QH EQORNKE- presidency by stipulating that “any pres- KV[ KP MKNNKPI RTQVGUVGTU 5GEQPF QPN[ ident, vice president, prime minister or VYQ FC[U DGHQTG VJG UGEQPF TQWPF QH NGCFGTQT UGPKQTOGODGT QHVJGPQY voting, the High Constitutional Court dissolved National Demo- ETCVKE2CTV[KUDCTTGFHTQO Only one description could be said for exercising political rights Egyptian voting behavior: “unexpected”. HQT  [GCTUŒ *QYGXGT two days later the SPEC Almost all the polls, analyses, and TV talk CEEGRVGFCPCRRGCNſNGFD[ shows failed to predict the way Egyptians 5JCſSCICKPUVJKUGZENWUKQP would cast their ballots CPFCNNQYGFJKODCEMKPVQ the contest; again according to Article (HCC) dissolved the People’s Assem- CP[52'%FGEKUKQPYCUſPCN bly and ruled that the impeachment law, 6JG TGUWNVU QH VJG ſTUV TQWPF QH YJKEJ JCF GNKOKPCVGF 5JCſS HTQO VJG VJG GNGEVKQP /C[  CPF   UJQEMGF race, was unconstitutional. Both events many Egyptians as Mohamed Morsi YGTGVJQWIJVVQDGPGſV/QTUKCUOCP[ ECOGſTUVQWVQHVQVCNQHECPFKFCVGU RQNKVKECN HQTEGU UVCTVGF VQ TGCNK\G VJCV YKVJRGTEGPVQHXQVGUCPF#JOGF VJGTGOKIJVDGCTGCNEJCPEGHQT5JCſS 5JCſSECOGUGEQPFYKVJRGTEGPV CPFVJCVQNFTGIKOGYCUſIJVKPIVQIGV *COFGGP5CDCJK CRQRWNCTNGHVKUVCEVKX- DCEMKPVQRQNKVKEU5WDUGSWGPVN[OCP[ KUV #DWN(QVQWJ CHQTOGT/$ſIWTG  FGEKFGF VQ XQVG HQT /QTUK KP QTFGT VQ CPF#OT/QWUUC VJGHQTOGTUGETGVCT[ GZENWFG5JCſS IGPGTCNQHVJG#TCD.GCIWG ECOGVJKTF (KPCNN[ VJG UGEQPF TQWPF QH XQVKPI HQWTVJCPFſHVJKPVJCVQTFGT0QYXQV- VQQM RNCEG QP ,WPG  CPF  9JKNG ers had to select between extremes: it voters were casting their ballots in the was either the MB or the old regime, the NCUV OKPWVGU QH VJG UGEQPF FC[ VJG

SUMMER 2012 17 AHMED ABD RABOU

5%#( CPPQWPEGF C EQORNGOGPVCT[ YQWNF PQV JCXG C TGCN EJCPEG 6JKTF constitution declaration that returned VJG/$YQWNFDGRCKPHWNN[RWPKUJGFD[ to it all legislative powers and gave it voters, and their candidate, Morsi, who was initially nominated as an The turnout in both rounds was lower CNVGTPCVKXGHQTVJGUVTQPIOCP than expected when compared to the Khayrat Elshater, would not turnout in the parliamentary election JCXGCEJCPEG#PFHQWTVJG voters in rural areas would C XGVQ QXGT C YKFG TCPIG QH RQNKVKECN go conservative, while those in urban and security issues, changing the bal- areas would vote either liberal or pro- CPEGQHRQYGTKPKVUHCXQT(KPCNN[CH- gressive. ter much delay where both candidates 6JGTGUWNVUQHDQVJTQWPFUJQYGXGT claimed victory, the SPEC announced YGTGOWEJFKHHGTGPV(KTUVVJGVWTPQWV VJCV/QTUKYCUVJGYKPPGTQHVJKUNQPI KPVJGſTUVTQWPFYCUNQYDCTGN[TGCEJ- and controversial contest, a result that KPI  RGTEGPV It is true that turnout was welcomed in the street. UWTIGFKPVJGNCUVHGYJQWTUQHVJGUGE- ond day in the second round, ultimately Egyptian Voting Behavior: reaching 50 percent, but the turnout in The Unexpected both rounds was lower than expected when compared to the turnout in the 1PN[ QPG FGUETKRVKQP EQWNF DG UCKF RCTNKCOGPVCT[ GNGEVKQP 6JGTG CTG PQV HQT 'I[RVKCP XQVKPI DGJCXKQT őWPGZ- [GVENGCTTGCUQPUHQTVJKUNQYRCTVKEKRC- RGEVGFŒ#NOQUVCNNVJGRQNNUCPCN[UGU VKQPDWVUQOGTGHGTVQVJGHCEVVJCVOQUV CPF68VCNMUJQYUHCKNGFVQRTGFKEVVJG 'I[RVKCPUYGTGHGFWRYKVJRQNKVKEKCPU way Egyptians would cast their bal- due to the prolonged transitional period. NQVU#EEQTFKPIVQCYKFGTCPIGQHRQNNU Another reason might be that the disap- CPFCPCN[UGUDGHQTGVJGGNGEVKQPUQOG RQKPVKPIRGTHQTOCPEGQHVJGRCTNKCOGPV prepositions on Egyptian voting behav- JCUUJQEMGF'I[RVKCPUCPFRWUJGFVJGO KQT YGTG CU HQNNQYU (KTUV VJG VWTPQWV CYC[ HTQO XQVKPI KP VJG RTGUKFGPVKCN would be high and would exceed the election. A third reason might be that a  RGTEGPV VWTPQWV HQT VJG RCTNKCOGP- NCTIGPWODGTQH[QWVJCPFQVJGTNKDGTCN tary elections that were held earlier in CPFUQEKCNHQTEGUFGEKFGFVQDQ[EQVVVJKU the year. Second, the contest would be GNGEVKQP UKPEG OCP[ QH VJGO UCY KV CU OCKPN[DGVYGGP#DWN(QVQQJCEGPVTKUV CP WPHCKT EQPVGUV QT UKORN[ OCP[ FKF ECPFKFCVG YKVJ CP +UNCOKE DCEMITQWPF PQVſPFVJGKTEJQKEGCOQPIVJGECP- and who is close to liberals and was didates. RTQOKUGFVQIGVVJG5CNſUVUŏXQVGUCPF Second, another surprise was that , who is close to the Copts #DWN (QVQQJ CPF #OT /QWUUC ECOG CPFJCUVJGUWRRQTVQHVJGTGOPCPVUQH HQWTVJ CPF ſHVJ TGURGEVKXGN[ 6JKU TG- VJG QNF TGIKOG 6JG QVJGT ECPFKFCVGU sult went against the expectations that

18 INSIGHT TURKEY EGYPT AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC? REUTERS, Mohamed El Ghany Abd Photo: Photo: A supporter of Egypt’s !rst Islamist President Mohamed Mursi cheers with a e#gy of Mursi during a rally at in Cairo.

VJGVYQYQWNFDGVJGOQUVNKMGN[VQWN- NGHVQPVJGEQPVKPWWOCPFVJGTGYCUPQ VKOCVGN[YKPVJGRTGUKFGPE[6JGHCKNWTG TQQOHQTEGPVTKUVU/QTGQXGTVJGHCEV QHDQVJECPFKFCVGUPGGFUUQOGTGUGCTEJ VJCV VJG ſTUV CPF QPN[ RTGUKFGPVKCN 68 in order to explain how Egyptians made debate in Egyptian and Arab history was up their minds while voting. $QVJQHVJGOVTKGFVQOCT- The insecure and impoverished MGVVJGOUGNXGUCUEGPVTKUVU environment that most voters faced #DWN (QVQQJ VTKGF VQ RNC[ a centrist role between the could help us understand the confusing Islamic and liberal spheres, and unexpected way Egyptians voted in while Amr Moussa tried to the presidential election do the same between the old TGIKOGCEVQTUCPFTGXQNWVKQPCT[HQTEGU between those two candidates decreased However, these compromises did not their chances. It was not only that they convince Egyptians who decided in the FKFPQVRGTHQTOYGNNKPVJGFGDCVGDWV GPFVQXQVGKPOQTGGZVTGOGYC[U(QT it was also that the pharaoh imageQHVJG Egyptians, it was either too right or too president that most Egyptians still have

SUMMER 2012 19 AHMED ABD RABOU

was contradicted by the humble image XQVGTUYCUEQPHWUKPI6JGEQCUVCNCTGCU QHDQVJRQNKVKEKCPUFGHGPFKPIVJGKTRQUK- and big cities, which are mostly liberal, VKQPUCPFUGGMKPIRWDNKECRRTQXCN YGPVKPFKHHGTGPVFKTGEVKQPUKPVJGUGE- 6JKTF KV KU VTWG VJCV VJG /$ YCU QPFTQWPF9JKNG%CKTQCPF2QTV5CKF punished in the presidential election. XQVGFHQT5JCſS#NGZCPFTKCCPF5WG\ %QORCTKPIVJGſTUVTQWPFQHVJGRTGUK- XQVGF HQT /QTUK 6JG TWTCN IQXGTPQT- dential election and the earlier People’s ates, which are mostly conservative, Assembly election shows that about EQPVKPWGFVQXQVGHQT5JCſSYJKNG7R- RGTEGPVQHVJQUGYJQXQVGFHQTVJG per Egypt, where tribes were thought to JCXG OQDKNK\GF HQT 5JCſS Morsi is expected to face harsh XQVGF HQT /QTUK +V KU VQQ challenges inside the presidency early to explain such contra- institution as the administrative, dictory behavior; however, it is clear that analysts need !nancial, and security sta" who work to revise their old theories within this sensitive institution view and prepositions about how Morsi as an outsider 'I[RVKCPU OCMG VJGKT FGEK- sion in casting their votes. MB in the People’s Assembly election (KHVJ CU HQT VJG %QRVU KV JCF CN- XQVGFHQTQVJGTECPFKFCVGUKPVJGRTGUK- ways been thought that they would vote dential election. However, Morsi was CUCDNQEHQTQNFTGIKOGſIWTGUYJKEJ UVKNNſTUVKPDQVJTQWPFU+PEQPVTCUVVQ FKFPQVJCRRGPKPVJGſTUVTQWPF6JG many analysts, voters seemed to give older generation’s votes were divided VJG/$CPQVJGTEJCPEGCHVGTVJGKTYGCM DGVYGGP 5JCſS CPF /QWUUC VJG QNF RGTHQTOCPEGKPVJGRCTNKCOGPV5VKNNVJG TGIKOG YJKNGVJGKT[QWVJXQVGFHQTC MB has mobilizing capabilities and they progressive in Hamdeen. In the second UGGOVQDGVJGOQUVRTQHGUUKQPCNGPVKV[ round, the older generations continued in electioneering. VQXQVGHQT5JCſSYJKNGVJG[QWVJQRVGF (QWTVJKPVJGſTUVTQWPFVJGEQCUVCN to either invalidate their vote or simply CTGCUCPFDKIEKVKGUNKMG%CKTQCPF#N- boycotted the election. GZCPFTKC XQVGF HQT VJG RQRWNCT UQEKCN- (KPCNN[QPGQWVQHVJTGG'I[RVKCPU KUV ECPFKFCVG *COFGGP 5CDCJGK 6JG decided their choice only in the last rural governorates, such as Qualibyea, OKPWVG /CP[ XQVGTU EQPHGUUGF VJCV /QWPH[GC5JCTSW[GCCPF)JCTDK[GC VJG[OCFGVJGKTOKPFWRQPN[CHVGTVJG[ YJKEJYGTGVJGDCUGUHQTVJG/$KPVJG VWTPGFQWVVQECUVVJGKTDCNNQVU1VJGTU RCTNKCOGPVCT[ GNGEVKQP XQVGF HQT VJG UCKF VJCV OGFKC TWOQTU CPF 68 VCNM HQTOGT RTKOG OKPKUVGT CPF VJG UQVQ UJQYUJCFKPƀWGPEGFVJGKTFGEKUKQP URGCM NKDGTCN #JOGF 5JCſS KP C NCTIG 6JG QPN[ YC[ VQ GZRNCKP 'I[RVKCP way, a big surprise to all observers. In voting behavior is to understand the en- VJGTWPQHHXQVKPIVJGUGEQPFEJQKEGQH vironment in which the electoral process

20 INSIGHT TURKEY EGYPT AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC?

VQQMRNCEG5KORN[KVVQQMRNCEGWPFGT HCEG JCTUJ EJCNNGPIGU KPUKFG VJG RTGUK- EQPFKVKQPUFGUETKDGFD[(TGGFQO*QWUG dency institution as the administrative, CUőCICKPUVCRTQHQWPFN[WPFGOQETCVKE ſPCPEKCN CPF UGEWTKV[ UVCHH YJQ YQTM DCEMITQWPFŒ +V YGPV QP VQ PQVG VJCV within this sensitive institution view “Egypt’s highest court disbanded the Morsi as an outsider. Moreover, he HTGGN[ GNGEVGF RCTNKCOGPV 6JG TWNKPI JCUDGGPCPCEVKXGOGODGTQHVJG/$ 5%#( UWDUGSWGPVN[ CTTQICVGF VQ KVUGNH CPF YCU LWUV DGHQTG VJG KPCWIWTCVKQP UYGGRKPI RQYGTU QH CTTGUV FGVGPVKQP VJGEJCKTOCPQHVJG(,2CPFVJGTGHQTG CPFNCYOCMKPICPFCUUGTVGFXGVQRQYGT 'I[RVŏUFGGRKPUVKVWVKQPU HQTGZCORNG QXGTVJGEQPUVKVWVKQPFTCHVKPIRTQEGUUŒ4 the intelligence community, military, Moreover, the insecure and impover- etc.) could view him with suspicion. KUJGFGPXKTQPOGPVVJCVOQUVXQVGTUHCEGF #U C TGUWNV QH VJGUG UWURKEKQPU C HGY EQWNFJGNRWUWPFGTUVCPFVJGEQPHWUKPI JQWTU DGHQTG /QTUK YCU CPPQWPEGF CU and unexpected way Egyptians voted in 'I[RVŏU ſHVJ RTGUKFGPV VJG 5%#( CR- the presidential election. RQKPVGF C OKNKVCT[ QHſEGT CU EJCKTOCP QHVJGCFOKPKUVTCVKXGCPFſPCPEKCNVCUM Towards the Second Republic: unit within the presidency, showing its The Compromising Man Show FGUKTGVQMGGRVJGQHſEGQHVJGRTGUKFGPV WPFGT KVU EQPVTQN 6Q YJCV GZVGPV YKNN 0QYYKVJ/QTUKKPRQYGTCUVJGſTUVRQN- /QTUKICKPVJGVTWUVQHVJGQHſEGQHVJG itician associated with the MB to reach president and other deep institutions? VJKURQUVCPFCUJGJCUTGUKIPGFHTQO 6QYJCVGZVGPVYKNNRTGUKFGPE[insiders both the MB and their political arm, the EQQRGTCVGYKVJJKOCPFCEEGRVUQOGQH (TGGFQOCPF,WUVKEG2CTV[ (,2 UGX- VJG EJCPIGU VJCV /QTUK UGGMU VQ KPVTQ- eral challenges are wait- KPIHQTJKO/CP[QHVJGUG The extent to which Morsi will be able challenges are simply the to avoid clashing with the SCAF while at QWVEQOGUQHVJGRTQNQPIGF the same time retain the support of the electoral process, while revolutionary forces will be a major test others relate to the current DCNCPEG QH RQYGT DGVYGGP of his leadership the prominent actors in the Egyptian po- FWEGVJGKTUVCHH!6JGUGCTGUQOGSWGU- NKVKECNUEGPGGURGEKCNN[CHVGTVJGFKUUQ- VKQPVJCVYKNNDGKORQTVCPVHQT/QTUKŏU NWVKQPQHVJG2GQRNGŏU#UUGODN[CPFVJG RQNKVKECNHWVWTG complementary constitutional declara- 5GEQPFN[VJGHWVWTGTQNGQHVJG5%#( VKQPKORQUGFD[VJG5%#(+PVJGNKIJV is also marred with several challenges. QHVJKUGNGEVKQPVJGOCKPEJCNNGPIGUHQT #HVGT VJG EQORNGOGPVCT[ EQPUVKVWVKQP 'I[RVŏUPGCTHWVWTGCTG was introduced, there have been two le- 6JGſTUVUGVQHEJCNNGPIGUEQPEGTPU IKVKOCEKGUKPVJGEQWPVT[6JGſTUVQPG the presidency. Morsi is expected to is the constitutional legitimacy which

SUMMER 2012 21 AHMED ABD RABOU

constrains the president as a political didate, he has to adopt these demands actor and gives large powers to both QTQVJGTYKUGJGYKNNNQUGEQPſFGPEGKP VJG5%#(CPF*%%YJKNGVJGQVJGTKU VJGUVTGGV6QYJCVGZVGPVYKNN/QTUKDG the revolutionary legitimacy that is de- able to meet the revolutionary demands TKXGFHTQOVJGJWPFTGFUQHVJQWUCPFUQH YJKNGMGGRKPIVJGFGGRKPUVKVWVKQPUUCVKU- 'I[RVKCPUYJQJCXGRTQVGUVGFKP6CJTKT ſGF! USWCTGCPFQVJGTRNCEGUPCVKQPYKFGCPF 6JGLWFKEKCNRQYGTCPFKVUGZGTEKUG OQDKNK\GFXQVGUHQT/QTUKVJGOCKPTGC- YKNN NKMGN[ RTGUGPV OCP[ EJCNNGPIGU VQ UQPHQTJKUXKEVQT[KPVJGUGEQPFTQWPF Morsi. 1PG TGRGTEWUUKQP QH VJG GNGE- VQTCNRTQEGUUKUVJGENCUJQH Will Morsi keep the Camp David LWFKEKCN RQYGT GURGEKCNN[ agreement intact? To what extent will the HCC and SPEC, with political actors. Both are Morsi maintain the same political ties distrusted by revolutionary with the USA for the peace process in HQTEGUVJG/$CPFVJG(,2 the Middle East? Morsi’s main supporters. 6JQUG HQTEGU JCXG CEEWUGF Morsi is torn between the two. He can- VJGLWFIGUKPDQVJKPUVKVWVKQPUQHDGKPI PQVKIPQTGVJG5%#(CPFVJGNGIKVKOCE[ DKCUGFCPFRCTVQHVJGRNCPHQTOGFD[ QHVJGEQORNGOGPVCT[EQPUVKVWVKQPWRQP TGOPCPVUQHVJGQNFTGIKOGVQTGVWTPVQ YJKEJJGYCUQHſEKCNN[GNGEVGF5KOWN- the political scene. Now that he is in taneously, he also needs to secure the power, Morsi has to reconcile relations revolutionary legitimacy which support- YKVJVJGLWFIGUDGHQTGYJQOJGJCFVQ ed him against all the deep institutions in VCMG VJG RTGUKFGPVKCN QCVJ #EEQTFKPI VJGEQWPVT[6JGGZVGPVVQYJKEJ/QTUK to the complementary constitution, the will be able to avoid clashing with the *%%YKNNRNC[COCLQTTQNGKPVJGVTCP- 5%#(YJKNGCVVJGUCOGVKOGTGVCKPVJG sitional period especially with its power UWRRQTVQHVJGTGXQNWVKQPCT[HQTEGUYKNN VQJCXGCſPCNUC[KPVJGECUGQHC5%#( DGCOCLQTVGUVQHJKUNGCFGTUJKR XGVQ QP C PGY EQPUVKVWVKQP FTCHV 6JG #PQVJGT CTGC QH EJCNNGPIGU NKGU extent to which Morsi will be able to re- YKVJVJGTGXQNWVKQPCTKGU4GXQNWVKQPCT[ DWKNFEQPſFGPEGYKVJLWFIGUKUCPQVJGT HQTEGUCTGTCKUKPICPWODGTQHFGOCPFU big challenge that needs to be answered including canceling the complementary KPVJGXGT[PGCTHWVWTG constitution, preventing the dissolution Managing economic and security QHVJG2GQRNGŏU#UUGODN[TGOQXKPIVJG KUUWGU KU CPQVJGT CTGC QH EJCNNGPIG HQT 5%#( HTQO RQNKVKEU CPF OQTG 6JGUG Morsi. According to Morsi’s program, demands clash with Egypt’s prominent UGEWTKV[YKNNDGTGICKPGFKPVJGſTUV actors, especially military, intelligence, days, crime will be down, and measures CPF LWFKEKCN ITQWRU 0QY VJCV /QTUK YKNNDGVCMGPVQGPJCPEGGEQPQOKERGT- FGHGCVGF 5JCſS CU VJG revolution can- HQTOCPEG6JGRGQRNGKPVJGUVTGGVCTG

22 INSIGHT TURKEY EGYPT AFTER ELECTIONS: TOWARDS THE SECOND REPUBLIC?

CNNYCKVKPIHQTUWEJTGHQTOUEQPUKFGT- Conclusion ing that in the transitional period their lives have been under threat and they 1P,WPGCPF/QTUKICXG JCXGUWHHGTGFHTQOGEQPQOKEJCTFUJKRU HQWT URGGEJGU QPG DGHQTG VJG TGXQNW- 6QYJCVGZVGPVYKNN/QTUKDGCDNGVQKP- VKQPCTKGU KP 6CJTKT USWCTG QPG DGHQTG ETGCUG 'I[RVŏU GEQPQOKE RGTHQTOCPEG VJG*%%CHVGTJGVQQMVJGQCVJQHQH- while the country is in debt? How will ſEG QPG CV %CKTQ 7PKXGTUKV[ YJGTG Morsi be able to regain security with his JG JCF ECNNGF RQNKVKECN HQTEGU VQIGVJGT distorted relationship with the ministry HQT C ITCPF OGGVKPI CPF QPG DGHQTG QH KPVGTKQT CPF KVU TGNWEVCPEG VQ EQQR- VJG 5%#( CV C EGTGOQPKCN OGGVKPI VQ GTCVG YKVJ VJG /$! 6JGUG CTG ETWEKCN hand over power at a military base near SWGUVKQPU VJCV YKNN FGVGTOKPG /QTUKŏU %CKTQ +P VJGUG HQWT URGGEJGU /QTUK success in running the country. RTGUGPVGF JKOUGNH CU C EQORTQOKUKPI .CUVDWVPQVNGCUVHQTGKIPRQNKE[KU- OCP/QTUKGORJCUK\GFJKUTGURGEVHQT UWGUYKNNGZGTV[GVCPQVJGTUGVQHEJCN- CNNUVCVGKPUVKVWVKQPU VJG5%#(*%% NGPIGU HQT /QTUKŏU RTGUKFGPE[ 1PEG SPEC, police, etc.) as well as the revo- /QTUK KU KP QHſEG JG JCU VQ CPUYGT OCP[ SWGUVKQPU Morsi presented himself as a TGNCVGF VQ 'I[RVŏU HQTGKIP compromising man. Morsi emphasized RQNKE[ 9KNN /QTUK MGGR the Camp David agreement his respect for all state institutions as KPVCEV!6QYJCVGZVGPVYKNN well as the revolutionaries as a sign that Morsi maintain the same he respects both the constitutional and political ties with the USA revolutionary legitimacies. But both HQT VJG RGCEG RTQEGUU KP VJG /KFFNG 'CUV! 9KNN JG legitimacies never intersect and have maintain Egypt’s policy contradicting rules of the game QH UKNGPEG VQYCTFU #N#- saad’s massacres in Syria? How will he lutionaries as a sign that he respects react to the revolution-sensitive Arab both the constitutional and revolution- )WNH! *G JCU VQ CFFTGUU VJGUG SWGU- ary legitimacies. But both legitimacies VKQPU SWKEMN[ 6JG RW\\NG JGTG KU VJCV never intersect and have contradicting Morsi needs to prioritize his actions in TWNGUQHVJGICOG*QYECP/QTUKUCV- an environment where domestic issues KUH[CNNCEVQTUCPFRNC[VJGTQNGQHVJG CTG OQTG RTGUUKPI DWV JG JCU VQ VCMG EQORTQOKUGT!9KNNEQORTQOKUGUUCVKUH[ HQTGKIPRQNKE[KUUWGUKPVQEQPUKFGTCVKQP VJGTGXQNWVKQPCT[HQTEGUCPFIGVVJGVTWUV FWGVQ'I[RVŏUKPƀWGPEGKPVJGTGIKQP QHFGGRUVCVGKPUVKVWVKQPU!+VKUVQQGCTN[ How the president will solve this puzzle VQJCXGFGſPKVGCPUYGTUHQTVJGUGSWGU- KUCPQVJGTSWGUVKQPVJCVPGGFUVQDGCP- tions, but the presidential decree on July swered soon. VQTGECNNVJG2GQRNGŏU#UUGODN[CHVGT

SUMMER 2012 23 AHMED ABD RABOU

it was dissolved by the HCC, and what GXGPFGUVTQ[KPIVJGFTGCOQHVJGUGEQPF VJKUFGEKUKQPOGCPUHQTYKVJFTCYKPIVJG republic. NGIKUNCVKXG RQYGTU CICKP HTQO 5%#( CPFKPUKUVKPIVJCVPGYGNGEVKQPUHQTVJG Endnotes 2GQRNGŏU#UUGODN[DGJGNFFC[UCH- 1. #TVKENGUCPFQHVJGEQPUVKVWVKQPCNFGE- VGTVJGCFQRVKQPQHVJGPGYEQPUVKVWVKQP laration. by the public, which contradicts Arti- 2. 1P YJ[ JG YKVJFTGY HTQO VJG TCEG UGG 5CNOC 5JWMTCNNCJ ő'N$CTCFGK YKVJFTCYCN HTQO ENG  QH VJG EQORNGOGPVCT[ EQPUVKVW- RTGUKFGPVKCN TCEG UQYU EQPHWUKQP COQPI CEVKX- tion which stipulates that new elections KUVUŒAhram Online, January 14, 2012. OWUVDGJGNFFC[UCHVGTVJGCFQRVKQP 3. #NN UVCVKUVKEU CTG CFQRVGF HTQO 52'% QHſEKCNYGDUKVG&CVCTGVTKGXGFHTQOJVVRYYY QHVJGPGYEQPUVKVWVKQPTGXGCNVJCVVJG GNGEVKQPUGI GNGEVKQPQH/QTUKYCUQPN[RCTVQHVJG 4. (QTVJGHWNNEQOOGPVUGG(TGGFQO*QWUG VTCPUKVKQPCPFVJGCEVQTUYKNNMGGREQO- ő(TGGFQO*QWUG9GNEQOGU2GCEGHWN2TGUKFGPVKCN 'NGEVKQPŒ TGVTKGXGF ,WN[   HTQO JVVR peting and might even be clashing in the YYYHTGGFQOJQWUGQTICTVKENGHTGGFQOJQWUG XGT[PGCTHWVWTGRGTJCRURQUVRQPKPIQT YGNEQOGURGCEGHWNRTGUKFGPVKCNGNGEVKQPGI[RV>.

THE MIDDLE EAST 12th Edition Edited by Ellen Lust Yale University Now in its twelfth edition, The Middle East continues to be the most comprehensive, balanced introduction to the region. This long trusted and time-tested resource has not only been updated for currency, but the scope of the book has also been thoughtfully modified to capture a more complex and complete picture of the Middle East.

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COMING SOON! (ANDBOOK OF )NTERNATIONAL 2ELATIONS 3ECOND %DITION Edited by 7ALTER #ARLSNAES Uppsala University, 4HOMAS 2ISSE Otto-Suhr-Institute, Free University of Berlin and Beth A Simmons Harvard University

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24 INSIGHT TURKEY