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Energy Policy Turkey FUTURE of POLICIES and STRATEGIES JANUARY 2016 FIRST ISSUE

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Energy Policy Turkey FUTURE of POLICIES and STRATEGIES JANUARY 2016 FIRST ISSUE Energy Policy Turkey FUTURE OF POLICIES AND STRATEGIES JANUARY 2016 FIRST ISSUE «IRAN IN THE ENERGY GAME» «ROLE OF TURKEY AS AN ENERGY CENTER» «RUSSIAN CHESS ON GAS POLITICS: EVALUATION OF TURKISH STREAM» «NORTHERN IRAQ & TURKEY» Visit us @ http://www.EnergyPolicyTurkey.com TURKEY'S ENERGY STRATEGIES AND POLITICS RESEARCH CENTER ENERGY POLICY TURKEY JANUARY 2016 FIRST ISSUE FALL 2016 ISSUE 1 EDITOR Necdet Karakurt (TESPAM) PUBLISHING COORDINATOR Ali Maraşlı (TESPAM) TURKEY'S ENERGY STRATEGIES AND POLITICS RESEARCH CENTER ENERGY POLICY TURKEY JANUARY 2016 FIRST ISSUE GRAPHIC DESIGN & PUBLISHING Necdet Karakurt (TESPAM) & Onur Kabay (MEGA TEKNİK) WEB DESIGN Mustafa Akça (TESPAM) RIGHT HOLDER ON BE HALF OF TURKEY ENERGY STRATEGIES & POLITICS RESEARCH CENTER Oğuzhan Akyener (TESPAM) INSIDE THE FIRST ISSUE EDITOR’S VIEW Necdet KARAKURT PAGE 6 DID ARAB UPHEAVAL CHANGE THE ENERGY GAME OR THE WEST STILL HAVE AN EDGE ON IT? Necdet KARAKURT Serhat ÇUBUKÇUOĞLU Oğuzhan AKYENER PAGE 8 IRAN IN THE ENERGY GAME WHILE PASSING THROUGH THE ENERGY DOOR Necdet KARAKURT Oğuzhan AKYENER Serhat ÇUBUKÇUOĞLU Mehmet APAYDIN Ali MARAŞLI PAGE 20 COMMENTS ON THE ROLE OF TURKEY AS AN ENERGY CENTER Oğuzhan AKYENER Mehmet APAYDIN PAGE 32 AZERBAIJAN GAS EXPORT POTENTIAL & RELATED INFRASTRUCTURES FOR EU & TR ENERGY SECURITY ISSUES (UP TO 2050) Oğuzhan AKYENER PAGE 42 ENERGY SECURITY STRUGGLE IN CASPIAN REGION FROM CASPEAN THE VIEW OF IMPORTANT PIPELINE PROJECTS SEA Oğuzhan AKYENER PAGE 52 DOABILITY OF TRANS-CASPIAN PIPELINE AND DELIVE- RABILITY OF TURKMEN GAS TO TURKEY & EU Oğuzhan AKYENER PAGE 66 NORTHERN IRAQ & TURKEY: FROM THE VIEW OF ENERGY Oğuzhan AKYENER Burak KAYAEL PAGE 76 KEY FACTORS OF RECENT CHANGES IN CRUDE OIL PRICES Serdar GÜRÜZÜMCÜ Mehmet APAYDIN PAGE 90 TURKEY’S ENERGY INVESTMENTS—PROJECTS—POLICIES: AN OVERVIEW UNDER DECISION MAKING APPROACH Ahmet Bahadir ŞIMŞEK PAGE 96 COAL: A REALISTIC HOPE FOR TURKEY’S FU- TURE ENERGY SECURITY? Selçuk ÖZGEN Ferda BAYRAK PAGE 102 RUSSIAN CHESS ON GAS POLITICS: EVA- LUATION OF TURKISH STREAM Oğuzhan AKYENER Çağri ŞIRİN PAGE 108 SOUTHERN GAS CORRIDOR, MILESTONES AND OTHER TURKMEN GAS EXPORT OPTIONS (VIA TURKISH Oğuzhan AKYENER PAGE 124 STRATEGIC APPROACHES TO UNCONVENTIONAL RESOUR- CES TO MEET THE TURKISH ENERGY DEMAND Necdet KARAKURT Oğuzhan AKYENER PAGE 134 EDITOR’S VIEW by Necdet Karakurt Humanity largely depends on energy usage Europe along with its own natural resourc- as technology advances. More energy defi- es has been a royal customer to Russia with nitely equals more power in today’s world. large gas reserves. However, Russia’s unpre- However, the nature unjustly distributed dictable political affairs (especially what it energy resources around the earth that obli- did in Ukraine) disturb EU’s dependency on “It is clear that political gates some countries to acquire privileges in Russian gas. An alternative (perhaps alterna- energy industry using capital and political tives) to Russian gas is inevitable for Europe incitation require long influence. Europe and US succeeded politic and its copartner US. American intervention advancement in areas with large oil reserves in Iraq started the long and painful journey in term and contingency by colonization. Their influence in such -ar the Middle East. The Arab Spring rising from planning. Hence, the eas spread through and sustained by autoc- Tunisia would eventually hit Syria. Modern racy ruled by hypocrites over a few decades. democratic governments to provide good world meets “The Energy Autocratic hypocrites served well for the west deeds for EU and US would replace the auto- Game” that comes out until they became useless as the folks asked cratic ones in the region. Arab Spring theory for revolution. The scenario is as simple as the worked well until rebellious acts took place as the successful future west intervening to overthrow the dictators in Syria. Being economically imbalanced and and ending the turbulence. In the past, there only having partial success in Iraq (in gener- planning.“ was always a new servant hypocrite coming al, limited to Kurdish Region in Northern to power once the old one was toppled, how- Iraq) restrained US from practicing a similar ever, nowadays; the incumbents have to pass military engagement in Syria. To overthrow through a few critical international tests since Assad, they furnished the opposition groups there is a notable increase in the number of instead. However, Iran and Russia with some influencers. help from China interrupted the idea of dis- “Syria’s importance mantling Syria and kept the Assad’s regime It is clear that political incitation require long alive. comes from being the term and contingency planning. Developed countries are aware of the benefits of future It may not be wise to classify Turkish politics last circle of pipeline planning and always prefer staying ahead as successful throughout the Arab Spring but chains from Egypt, Qatar comparing to those who are on the develop- Turkey has been actively involved in current ing stage or yet to develop. Hence, the world politics and strategies in the Middle East. and Iran: A democratic meets “The Energy Game” that comes out as Turkey already had Azeri and Russian gas the successful future planning. Every country flowing along the current pipelines and there Syria would guarantee has a share from this game no matter how have been talks and agreements for build- safety of the pipelines large of reserves they have. The biggest players ing additional pipelines. At this point, Tur- in the game can be named as EU (as the con- key could be a port that connected Middle and so Turkey’s being an sumer), US (consumer & seller), and Rus- East and Caucasian gas, and become a safe “Energy Hub” deal.“ sia (seller). China might be added but their house for Europe’s gas market. The thought worldwide reputation and presence seems to of being an energy hub triggered aggressive be a follower more than a political influencer. politics during the Syrian opposition move- OPEC can be considered as the producer but ment. Syria’s importance comes from being its political efficiency seems to be unnotice- the last circle of pipeline chains from Egypt, able. Qatar and Iran: Qatari gas through Saudi ENERGY POLICY TURKEY Page 6 Arabia and Jordan, Egyptian gas through Is- Perspicaciously connecting puzzle pieces to- “The energy game is rael and Lebanon, and Iranian gas through gether can directly answer many of the ques- never as simple as one Iraq all had to pass Syrian land. A democrat- tions regarding the energy game, and how the ic Syria would guarantee safety of the pipe- game changes. The Energy Policy Turkey, in might think. Many inno- lines and so Turkey’s being an “Energy Hub” its first and unique issue, tries to place the deal. From the day one of Syrian oppositional correct pieces together and focus on certain cent people suffer from movement, Turkey supported the opposition aspects of the “Energy Game” that has been the political decisions groups. On the other hand, Iran by having occurring in and around Turkey. A few of the the control over Iraqi government (under articles articulate the famous subject Turkey pressurized by illegiti- Shiites dominance) helped Assad to stay in to be an energy hub as the current pipelines mate leadership.” the office. At one point, opposition groups (BTC, SCP, etc.), ongoing projects (TANAP, fought each other instead that reminds how TAP, etc.) and possible future pipeline routes seriously the west and Turkey should handle and projects (Turkish Stream, South Stream, Iranian intelligence. Applying sanctions upon Northern Iraq Pipeline, etc.) are examined Iran happened to be semi-efficient. However, deeply. You might take a glimpse of the article Russia chose to defend Assad against Coali- about possibilities of Turkmen gas transport tion by proposing that it considered all the and catch a clue on the new perspectives to opposition groups as terrorist. Today, Assad is the current strategies. Azerbaijan’s export po- still the governor of Syria and Russia bombs tential up to 2050 is enunciated in a unique Turkmen territories. EU, US and Turkey hit study within the concept of Southern Gas Daesh targets. However, chaos in Syria is still Corridor. Another article explains if uncon- at high levels as millions of Syrians left the ventional reserves can be a hope for Turkey’s country and hundreds of thousands are dead. future energy needs or if Turkey can experi- “Setting international ence the shale gas revolution as well. More balance requires strong The energy game is never as simple as one articles have been specific to the evaluation might think. Many innocent people suffer of Eastern Mediterranean resources and en- nerves but energy from the political decisions pressurized by ergy policies. Analysis of Iran and Iraq from illegitimate leadership. Some leaders create a the view of energy reserves and both coun- supplies and demands chaos for their energy needs and some others tries’ role in the game grasps great attention. always tend to push the try to calm the chaos. Setting international The effects of the Arab Spring in the Middle balance requires strong nerves but energy East give a brief outlook of the major actors, limits in areas with large supplies and demands always tend to push their political advancement, and power shifts oil reserves, causing the limits in areas with large oil reserves, in the energy game. It also gives interesting causing irreparable mistakes. Now, that the ideas to what are happening differently in the irreparable mistakes.” tension increased rapidly in Turkey-Syr- Arabic Peninsula. ia-Iraq borders, every country involved must measure and act wisely for each political step that they are ready to take. Let us not for- get the fact that there are several desperate countries able to actuate their great military powers in the area.
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