Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation Using the Gravity Model and the Synthetic Control Methods Amat Adarovy This version: September 2018 Abstract The study examines the impact of Eurasian economic integration at aggregate and industry levels using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic control methods. The analysis finds that the trade creation effect associated with the establishment of the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010 and its further deepening, while initially exhibiting high significance, largely dissipated towards the year 2015. Overall, the net impact was overwhelmingly positive for Belarus, generally positive for Russia and mixed for Kazakhstan. Most gains are attributed to the exports of commodities (mineral products and metals), agri-food sector, and, notably, machinery and transportation sectors. The inception of the Eurasian bloc was also associated with trade diversion effects, consistent with the expectations for trade-diverting customs unions, yet the impact on imports from some countries and sectors outside the bloc, on the contrary, was positive. Keywords: Eurasian integration, trade creation and trade diversion, customs union, transi- tion economies, gravity model of trade, synthetic counterfactual JEL Classification Numbers: F13; F14; F15. yVienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Rahlgasse 3, Vienna, Austria. Author's e-mail:
[email protected]. The study is supported by a research grant from the Austrian National Bank's Anniversary Fund (OeNB Jubil¨aumsfonds). The author would like to thank David Zenz and Alexandra Bykova for statistical support, as well as Michael Landesmann, Robert Stehrer, participants of the Joint Vienna Institute seminars on Eurasian/European integration, a workshop on EAEU and BRI at the Univer- sity College London, a conference on Eurasian integration at the Austrian Chamber of Commerce, for useful comments.