DOCSLIB.ORG

How the Democrats Won Virginia in 2013 by Stephen J

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
How the Democrats Won Virginia in 2013 by Stephen J How the democrats won Virginia in 2013 By STEPHEN J. FARNSWORTH AND STEPHEN P. HANNA If you want to understand the results of last year’s race for Northern Virginia demonstrates the governor of Virginia, it helps to think about the state as if it were dangers for the GOP if the party does shaped like a pair of scissors. not respond to a rapidly changing state Imagine, in other words, big round circles where Northern electorate. While the percentages for the Virginia and Hampton Roads are, with a thin, long pointy end Democrat candidates were about the same representing Roanoke, Danville and points west. in Fairfax County in both elections, doing Why think of Virginia this way? Because people vote, counties as well translated into nearly 13,000 can’t. more votes for the Democrats in 2013. FARNSWORTH Traditional, acreage-based maps of the state’s voting patterns show Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli, in a string of Republican majority counties stretching from the Eastern contrast, only ended up with 6,600 more Shore and the Northern Neck through Stafford and Spotsylvania Fairfax votes than Jerry Kilgore, the party’s counties and west all the way to Kentucky. The Democratic blue 2005 nominee, received. may be bright in cities like Alexandria and Richmond and counties The 2013 gubernatorial candidates like Fairfax, but the vast majority of counties in “purple” Virginia are did not move the partisan needle much colored Republican red. in bellwether Prince William County The map accompanying this column better represents the either. But once again, the gap favoring geographic distribution of Virginia’s voters than a traditional state the Democrats widened: another 17,000 map. This map, called a cartogram, scales the size of each jurisdiction more votes were cast for McAuliffe when by votes cast rather than by acreage. Fairfax County, Richmond, and compared to Kaine. The gain for the GOP Virginia Beach cast more votes and, therefore, appear much larger was just over 10,000. HANNA than the state’s many rural counties. While both Democrats won Henrico County outside Richmond, Viewed in this voter-focused way, Virginia does indeed look like McAuliffe ended up with more than 4,000 more votes than Kaine did, a pair of scissors. The traditional map, based on the physical size despite securing a lower total percentage. The Republican county vote of counties, may be comforting to Republicans. But it obscures the total was about 1,000 less than in 2005, in part because of Libertarian problems that Republicans face in winning statewide elections going candidate Robert Sarvis’ campaign. Kaine also did better, percentage forward. wise, in Richmond, where he had served as mayor. But McAuliffe The challenges faced by the GOP can also be seen by comparing received more than 4,000 more votes there than Kaine did in 2005. the 2013 results with those of 2005, the last time a Democrat was Stafford and Spotsylvania counties are exceptions to trends that elected governor. In many parts of the state, Gov. Terry McAuliffe show the Democrats gaining ground even when they stand still. (D) did only as well, and sometimes not as well, as Tim Kaine (D) did Cuccinelli won both counties with a larger margin than Kilgore did, in his race for governor eight years ago. But, because the Democrats receiving more than 9,000 additional votes in the two jurisdictions. maintained roughly the same percentage of the vote in areas with the McAuliffe received about 3,000 more votes than Kaine did in the two greatest population increases over the past eight years, the larger vote counties, thanks to population growth. margins offset GOP gains in more rural counties. McAuliffe’s lack of government experience and his questionable business practices notwithstanding, he did just about as well in the state’s urban and suburban areas as did Kaine, an incumbent lieutenant governor who in 2005 benefitted from the popularity of then Gov. Mark Warner (D). Next time, the GOP may face a more experienced Democratic nominee than McAuliffe was. Taken together, these results show that Republican candidates for statewide office need to focus on where the voters are, geographically, as well as demographically and culturally. GOP candidates who want to win, in other words, should think of the state as a pair of scissors. Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. Stephen P. Hanna is professor and chair of geography at UMW.V VIRGINIA CAPITOL CONNECTIONS, SPRING 2014 10.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A Survey of 804 Likely Voters - Virginia Statewide - September, 2013
    Center for Public Policy : Polls Where policy matters. A Survey of 804 Likely Voters - Virginia Statewide - September, 2013 Question 1 Are you 18 years or older and registered to vote in state of Virginia? 100% - Yes Question 2 On November 5th of this year, there will be a general election for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and other offices. What are the chances of your voting in the November 5th General Election? Are you almost certain to vote or will you probably vote or in the November 5th general election? 100% - Yes Respondent's Gender Male: 47.0 % Female: 53.0 % Female Male Question 4 To begin with, do you think things in Virginia are generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Don't know/Not Sure: 17.0 % Right Direction: 50.0 % Wrong Track: 33.0 % Right Direction Wrong Track Don't know/Not Sure Question 5 And how about the region you live in? Do you think things in your region are generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Don't know/Not Sure: 9.0 % Wrong Track: 29.0 % Right Direction: 62.0 % Right Direction Wrong Track Don't know/Not Sure Question 6 Now I am going to read you a list of issues. Please tell me which one of these issues should be the top priority of the next Governor, no matter who it is. Don't know/Not Sure: 3.0 % Eliminating corruption in government: 7.0 % Reducing the flow of drugs in our neighborhoods: 1.0 % Improving public education: 24.0 % Healthcare/Obamacare: 10.0 % Government spending: 2.0 % Reducing taxes: 4.0 % Fixing the roads: 2.0 % Reducing crime and making the streets safer: 3.0 % Improving traffic flow and lessening congestion: 5.0 % Providing more affordable housing: 2.0 % Working to improve the economy and create jobs: 37.0 % Questions 7-15 Now here is a list of people.
    [Show full text]
  • Libertarian Party Candidates Call for Military Downsizing
    WWW.LP.ORG MINIMUM GOVERNMENT • MAXIMUM FREEDOM Take a look at the brand-new The Party of Principle™ LNC office in Alexandria! Read more on Page 5 August 2014 The Official Newspaper of the Libertarian Party Volume 44, Issue 4 In This Issue: 2014 LP National Convention coverage inside! Chair’s Corner ...........................2 ibertarian Party del- June to meet, recharge their Far more happened at pages 7–11. So head inside for egates, members, and batteries, inspire each other to the 2014 LP National Con- coverage of the new LNC chair LPfriends from across the work even harderNews to achieve vention than we can chronicle and officers, platform and by- Downsizing the Military ............3 L nation and overseas gathered liberty, and decide the future here, but we’ve captured some laws changes, featured speak- Office Fund Donors ...................4 in Columbus, Ohio, in late of the party. of the highlights for you on ers and events, and more! LNC Purchases New Office ........5 Libertarian Party candidates Debate Commission Lawsuit .....6 call for military downsizing Iowa Candidates .......................6 By Carla Howell 8th, Indiana; Heather Johnson, U.S. Political Director Senate, Minnesota; Davy Jones, 2014 National Convention..7–11 U.S. House 2nd, West Virginia; Bill s Democrats and Republicans Kelsey, U.S. House 10th, Texas; Scott MSNBC “Hardball” host Chris Matthews Record Candidates for LPVA ...12 flirt with more interventions in Kohlhaas, U.S. Senate, Alaska; Mike interviews Sean Haugh, Libertarian Party Ukraine, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Kolls, U.S. House 24th, Texas; Len- candidate for U.S. Senate in North Carolina A ny Ladner, U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Topline Results 2013 Virginia Election Eve Poll
    America’s Voice / People for the American Way Virginia Gubernatorial 2013 Election Eve Poll 1. Thinking about the 2013 election here in Virginia, what are the most important issues facing the [Latino/Hispanic/Asian-American] community that our politicians should address?[Open ended, record up to two per respondent] Latino Asian Create more jobs / Fix the economy 29 43 Immigration reform/DREAM Act 53 11 Health care 14 26 Education reform/schools 21 19 War in Afghanistan / Foreign policy * 1 Housing / mortgages * 2 Gas or energy prices * * Discrimination against Latinos/Asians 4 7 Taxes 2 9 Global warming/environment * 2 Something else 16 20 Don’t know/Refuse 10 15 2. In the election for Governor of Virginia, will/did you vote for the [ROTATE]: Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe, Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli, or Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis? Latino Asian Terry McAuliffe 66 63 Ken Cuccinelli 29 34 Robert Sarvis 4 3 Did not vote for governor 1 * Don’t know/Refuse * * 3. In the election for Attorney General of Virginia, did/will you vote for the [ROTATE]: Democratic candidate Mark Herring or Republican candidate Mark Obenshain? Latino Asian Mark Herring 69 61 Mark Obenshain 29 37 Did not vote for attorney general 2 2 Don’t know/Refuse * * 4. In the election for Virginia House of Delegates, did/will you vote for the [ROTATE]: Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate] in your district? Latino Asian Vote Democrat 65 58 Vote Republican 32 42 Did not vote for a Delegate 3 1 Don’t know/Refuse * * Field dates November 1-4, 2013, MoE +/- 4.9% 1 America’s Voice / People for the American Way Virginia Gubernatorial 2013 Election Eve Poll 5.
    [Show full text]
  • Game-Changing Libertarian Communications 1
    Game-Changing Libertarian Communications 1 Game-Changing Libertarian Communications Techniques for Libertarian Candidates and Activists Updated December 9, 2016 By Carla Howell, Political Director, Libertarian National Committee A message for candidates and other readers of this guide… .......................................... 3 LP solutions create mandate for change ..................................................................... 5 Who’s your customer? .................................................................................................... 6 Don’t sell to those who won’t buy .............................................................................. 6 Your target audience ................................................................................................... 6 Libertarian Gold Mine: today’s non-voters ................................................................ 7 The competition for libertarian-leaning, independent voters ...................................... 8 Libertarian proposals that distinguish you ...................................................................... 9 Critical Job # 1: Distinguish yourself with Libertarian solutions ............................... 9 Negotiate wisely.......................................................................................................... 9 Include spending cuts in your Libertarian proposals ................................................ 10 Cut total government spending ................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Roanoke College Poll 2014 Senate Election and State Issues October, 2014
    Roanoke College Poll 2014 Senate Election and State Issues October, 2014 Hi, I’m ____, and I’m calling from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. How are you today/this evening? We’re conducting a survey regarding important issues in Virginia, and your opinion is very important to us. All of your responses are anonymous and confidential. 1. First, to be sure that we get a representative sample of Virginians, would you please tell me in what county do you live? [RECODED TO REGION] Southwest Virginia 12% Shenandoah Valley 8% Southside 7% Central VA/Richmond 18% Northern VA 29% Tidewater 26% 2. Are you registered to vote in Virginia? Yes 100% No Terminate interview 3. And how likely is it that you will vote in the election for U.S. Senator in November? Would you say it is very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely? Very likely 80% Somewhat likely 21% Not very likely Terminate interview Not likely Terminate interview Refused Terminate interview 4. If the election for Senator of Virginia were held today would you vote for [ROTATE] Ed Gillespie, the Republican 32% Mark Warner, the Democrat 45% Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian 3% Someone else [VOL] 1% Uncertain 19% Refused Terminate interview 5. [IF UNCERTAIN] Are you leaning toward voting for Warner 12% Gillespie 13% Sarvis 5% Uncertain 70% 5. a. [IF GILLESPIE, WARNER OR SARVIS] How certain are you that you will vote for ____? Are you very certain, somewhat certain, or not very certain? Warner Gillespie Sarvis Very certain 77% 81% 50% Somewhat certain 22% 18% 45% Not very certain 2% 2% 5% Refused 0% 0% 0% 6.
    [Show full text]
  • September 4, 2014
    Come hang out with us — details on PAGE 8 Serving James Madison University Since 1922 BreezeJMU.org Vol. 93, No. 4 Thursday, September 4, 2014 breezejmu.org INSIDE TODAY Tenants Stopped yet to in its tracks move in Railroad safety gates on The Harrison apartments campus malfunction daNIELLE EPifaNIO / THE BREEZE send some students packing GOOD TO BE The Harrison, formerly known as University Fields and Ashby, is HOME amid renovation delays working to ensure students are compensated for inconveniences. Men’s basketball schedule By ELIZABETH CECCHETT in past years. The University Fields According to Hungerford, The features plenty of the and WILLIAM MASON complex went into foreclosure last Harrison initially gave her permis- Dukes in the ‘Burg The Breeze year, a result of the complex having sion to move in on Aug. 20 because less than 50 percent occupancy. she was a First YeaR Orientation SPORTS | 11 A project that promised superior After the complex was auctioned Guide and needed to arrive earlier living conditions, upgraded rooms off, it was taken under new manage- than other students. However, less and appliances has ultimately led ment, prompting the name change. than 24 hours before the agreed to, according to some residents, This summer, The Harrison move-in time, she was notified that JAMES CHUNG / THE BREEZE KEEP IT DOWN delayed move-ins, unsanitary con- underwent some significant renovations were not complete and This past week, the gates around the ditions, rundown appliances and renovations to upgrade the apart- that she would be staying in a near- train tracks through campus have angry tenants.
    [Show full text]
  • Pacing a Punch: the Rise in Power of Super Pacs and the 2016 Election Kevin Coroneos
    Political Analysis Volume 16 Volume XVI (2014) Article 3 2015 PACing a Punch: The Rise in Power of Super PACs and the 2016 Election Kevin Coroneos Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.shu.edu/pa Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Coroneos, Kevin (2015) "PACing a Punch: The Rise in Power of Super PACs and the 2016 Election," Political Analysis: Vol. 16 , Article 3. Available at: https://scholarship.shu.edu/pa/vol16/iss1/3 PAQng a Punch; The Rise in Power of Super PACs and the 2016 Election Kevin Coroneos It is 2016, the height of the Presidential election, and no one escape the political ads that have taken up every second of the commercial breaks on television. The ads, however, are not just from the candidates themselves, but from other, interested organizations. After an ad officially endorsed by the Republican candidate another pro-Republican ad comes along, but this one is created by a group called American Crossroads. During the next break, the viewer notices an advertisement supporting the Affordable Care Act, but this ad is also from a mysterious source called Priorities USA.. With each commercial break, more and more political ads appear, either from the candidate or another source. Tired of watching the television due to all the ads, the viewer decides to browse social media and YouTube for a short period of time, but he notices the ads before the videos are also very political. It is an aspect of the election the public cannot escape—^an all-out attack of the advertisements.
    [Show full text]
  • America's Voice / People for the American Way Virginia
    America’s Voice / People for the American Way Virginia Gubernatorial 2013 Election Eve – Latino – Weighted - Final Q1. Thinking about the 2013 election here in Virginia, what are the most important issues facing the (Latino/Asian) community that our politicians should address? Ever Forn US Span Eng 18to 40to Non 40K- Know Vote Latino Born Born Cond Cond Men Womn Dem Ind Rep 39 64 65+ Coll Coll <40K 80K >80K Undoc GOP ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ---- Create more jobs / fix 29% 27% 34% 23% 31% 37% 21% 27% 31% 29% 25% 34% 23% 34% 26% 31% 27% 36% 28% 29% the economy Immigration reform / 53% 59% 44% 61% 50% 53% 53% 62% 55% 34% 53% 52% 54% 46% 59% 56% 49% 56% 61% 45% DREAM Act Health care 14% 13% 16% 11% 15% 13% 16% 15% 15% 8% 15% 16% 13% 13% 15% 8% 19% 12% 14% 14% Education reform / 21% 21% 21% 26% 19% 13% 29% 24% 22% 11% 19% 24% 11% 28% 15% 15% 23% 25% 23% 20% schools War in Afghanistan / War *% *% - - *% *% *% - - 1% - - 1% *% - 1% - *% *% *% on terror / Foreign policy Housing / mortgages *% *% *% - *% *% *% *% - *% - *% *% 1% - 1% - *% *% *% Gas prices / energy *% - *% - *% - *% - - 1% - *% - *% - - - *% - *% prices / oil Race relations / 4% 3% 6% 3% 4% 4% 3% 6% 2% - 7% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 4% 2% discrimination against Latinos Address Taxes 2% 1% 3% - 3% 3% 2% - 5% 5% 1% 3% 1% 5% 1% - 2% 3% 3% 4% Global warming / *% *% - - *% 1% - 1% - - - 1% - - 1% - 1% - - - environment Something else 16% 17% 12% 18% 16% 18% 14% 14% 18% 19% 16% 15% 14% 15% 16% 27% 15% 13% 20% 16% Don't know 10% 10% 12% 6% 12% 9% 12% 7% 11% 20% 11% 8% 15% 9% 11% 6% 11% 7% 4% 13% Q2.
    [Show full text]
  • October 27, 2014 Breezejmu.Org
    GET A JOB ALREADY don’t let them die The Breeze has open paid We needs your Darts & Pats. editor positions. Apply at Submit them at joblink.jmu.edu. breezejmu.org. Serving James Madison University Since 1922 BreezeJMU.org Vol. 93, No. 19 Monday, October 27, 2014 breezejmu.org INSIDE TODAY ‘UG NK ROCK’ A WIN IS A WIN HITS THE Offense continues with success, defense falters in 48-40 win over Charlotte ‘BURG By DREW CRAne said. “I was just trying to take up the scoreboard in the first The Breeze what they were giving me.” quarter, particularly in the And according to Char- Oct. 11 game against Towson CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The lotte’s senior safety Desmond University. evolution of redshirt quarter- Cooper, the 49ers didn’t want But the first quarter has back Vad Lee continues. In to give him anything. been JMU’s least effective Saturday’s 48-40 win over the “He’s a great quarterback,” quarter scoring-wise — going University of North Carolina Cooper said. “He went out in to the game it had scored at Charlotte, Lee put together there and did what we expect- only 43 first quarter points all quite possibly his best game ed him to do. We prepared season, compared to 66, 52 yet as he set a career high in well for him. He went out there and 62 points in the second, passing touchdowns with and executed.” third and fourth quarters, four, while also registering two Lee and the JMU offense respectively. rushing touchdowns. got off to a fast start Saturday “That was pretty cool,” Lee But in typical Lee fashion, as they racked up 21 points said of the first quarter.
    [Show full text]
  • The Leg.Up Local, State and National News of Interest to the Physician Community November 6, 2013
    What's at Stake for Docs in Va. Election Results? Page 1 of 15 The Leg.Up Local, state and national news of interest to the physician community November 6, 2013 Mark B. Monahan, MD Virginia Urology Richard A. Szucs, MD Commonwealth Radiology Ritsu Kuno, MD Pulmonary Associates of Richmond In This Issue Vote for your 2014 Board of Trustees Vote to AFFIRM Your RAM Board! Please VOTE now to AFFIRM the proposed McAuliffe & Northam leadership of the Academy for 2014. Yes, Victories and You! it's an uncontested election, but by casting your vote of affirmation you send a strong Coming Soon: "Obama message of support for the proposed 2014 Billionaires" officers and trustees. SNL, Stewart and For 2014, we are voting on the following trustees: Congress Target Sebelius Meet Your Legislators! • Immediate Past President - Richard A. Szucs, MD • President - Peter A. Zedler, MD You Also Can't Keep Your • Vice-President - Harry D. Bear, MD Doctor • Treasurer - Ritsu Kuno, MD • Secretary - Sidney Jones III, MD Why HealthCare.gov • Trustee - Carolyn A. Burns, MD Flopped • Trustee - W. Colin Gallahan, MD • Trustee - Rhoda B. Mahoney, MD • Trustee - Harry (Chip) J. Shaia, MD https://ui.constantcontact.com/visualeditor/visual_editor_preview.jsp?agent.uid=1115496 ... 11/ 07/ 2013 What's at Stake for Docs in Va. Election Results? Page 2 of 15 Most New Coverage in • Trustee - Thomas A. Gallo Medicaid Dr. Avital to Speak at Bon Please click here to learn more Secours' Lecture about each candidate. Should Feds Oversee EMR Please click here to vote in the Errors? 2014 elections OR join us at The Devil (and the the University of Richmond's lawsuit) is in the Details Jepson Alumni Center on November 13th to vote! "Gentlemanly Cavaliers" and Dirty Money in Va.
    [Show full text]
  • Old Dominion, New Election
    This issue brought to you by Virginia Governor: Old Dominion, New Election By Jacob Rubashkin JUNE 18, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO. 12 It has been a quiet year for elections so far, with a handful of special congressional races producing status quo outcomes that barely registered in the political consciousness. 2022 Governor Ratings But that quiet could be coming to a close as Virginia gears up for November, when it will host the most expensive gubernatorial contest Battleground in the state’s history. Last Tuesday’s Democratic primary finalized Democratic-held (6) Republican-held (5) November’s matchup. On one side, a ferocious fundraiser and Kelly (D-Kan.) AZ Open (Ducey, R) Democratic impresario. On the other, a political newcomer who could Mills (D-Maine) DeSantis (R-Fl.) be Republicans’ best chance at staunching the party’s decade-long Whitmer (D-Mich.) Kemp (R-Ga.) hemorrhaging in the commonwealth. The Virginia race will be the biggest contest of the Biden era to date. Sisolak (D-Nev.) MD Open (Hogan, R) For Republicans, it presents an opportunity to demonstrate the party PA Open (Wolf, D) Sununu (R-N.H.) can not only hold together the Trump coalition without former President Evers (D-Wisc.) Donald Trump on the ballot, but win in places Trump couldn’t and send Solid Democratic (10) Solid Republican (15) a message that “blue states” aren’t going to be off-limits in the 2022 Newsom (D-Calif.) Ivey (R-Ala.) midterm elections. For Democrats, the race will be a proving ground for Polis (D-Colo.) Dunleavy (R-Alaska) how to hang a still-unpopular Trump around the neck of non-Trump Republican candidates.
    [Show full text]
  • Mcauliffe up by 4 POINTS in CLOSE VIRGINIA GOV RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; LIBERTARIAN HAS 9 PERCENT
    Peter Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 30, 2013 McAULIFFE UP BY 4 POINTS IN CLOSE VIRGINIA GOV RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; LIBERTARIAN HAS 9 PERCENT The Virginia governor’s race is going down to the wire with Democrat Terry McAuliffe clinging to a slight 45 – 41 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and 9 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 46 – 39 percent, with Sarvis at 10 percent. Today’s survey shows that if Sarvis were not in the race, McAuliffe would have 47 percent to 45 percent for Cuccinelli, too close to call. In the three-way matchup, 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 7 percent of those who name a candidate say there’s a “good chance” they will change their mind in the next six days. McAuliffe leads 91 – 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 – 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 – 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis. Women back the Democrat 50 – 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 – 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis. “State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe’s heels as the race to be Virginia’s next governor enters the final week of the campaign,” said Peter A.
    [Show full text]