How the democrats won Virginia in 2013 By STEPHEN J. FARNSWORTH AND STEPHEN P. HANNA If you want to understand the results of last year’s race for Northern Virginia demonstrates the governor of Virginia, it helps to think about the state as if it were dangers for the GOP if the party does shaped like a pair of scissors. not respond to a rapidly changing state Imagine, in other words, big round circles where Northern electorate. While the percentages for the Virginia and Hampton Roads are, with a thin, long pointy end Democrat candidates were about the same representing Roanoke, Danville and points west. in Fairfax County in both elections, doing Why think of Virginia this way? Because people vote, counties as well translated into nearly 13,000 can’t. more votes for the Democrats in 2013. FARNSWORTH Traditional, acreage-based maps of the state’s voting patterns show Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli, in a string of Republican majority counties stretching from the Eastern contrast, only ended up with 6,600 more Shore and the Northern Neck through Stafford and Spotsylvania Fairfax votes than Jerry Kilgore, the party’s counties and west all the way to Kentucky. The Democratic blue 2005 nominee, received. may be bright in cities like Alexandria and Richmond and counties The 2013 gubernatorial candidates like Fairfax, but the vast majority of counties in “purple” Virginia are did not move the partisan needle much colored Republican red. in bellwether Prince William County The map accompanying this column better represents the either. But once again, the gap favoring geographic distribution of Virginia’s voters than a traditional state the Democrats widened: another 17,000 map. This map, called a cartogram, scales the size of each jurisdiction more votes were cast for McAuliffe when by votes cast rather than by acreage. Fairfax County, Richmond, and compared to Kaine. The gain for the GOP Virginia Beach cast more votes and, therefore, appear much larger was just over 10,000. HANNA than the state’s many rural counties. While both Democrats won Henrico County outside Richmond, Viewed in this voter-focused way, Virginia does indeed look like McAuliffe ended up with more than 4,000 more votes than Kaine did, a pair of scissors. The traditional map, based on the physical size despite securing a lower total percentage. The Republican county vote of counties, may be comforting to Republicans. But it obscures the total was about 1,000 less than in 2005, in part because of Libertarian problems that Republicans face in winning statewide elections going candidate Robert Sarvis’ campaign. Kaine also did better, percentage forward. wise, in Richmond, where he had served as mayor. But McAuliffe The challenges faced by the GOP can also be seen by comparing received more than 4,000 more votes there than Kaine did in 2005. the 2013 results with those of 2005, the last time a Democrat was Stafford and Spotsylvania counties are exceptions to trends that elected governor. In many parts of the state, Gov. Terry McAuliffe show the Democrats gaining ground even when they stand still. (D) did only as well, and sometimes not as well, as Tim Kaine (D) did Cuccinelli won both counties with a larger margin than Kilgore did, in his race for governor eight years ago. But, because the Democrats receiving more than 9,000 additional votes in the two jurisdictions. maintained roughly the same percentage of the vote in areas with the McAuliffe received about 3,000 more votes than Kaine did in the two greatest population increases over the past eight years, the larger vote counties, thanks to population growth. margins offset GOP gains in more rural counties. McAuliffe’s lack of government experience and his questionable business practices notwithstanding, he did just about as well in the state’s urban and suburban areas as did Kaine, an incumbent lieutenant governor who in 2005 benefitted from the popularity of then Gov. Mark Warner (D). Next time, the GOP may face a more experienced Democratic nominee than McAuliffe was. Taken together, these results show that Republican candidates for statewide office need to focus on where the voters are, geographically, as well as demographically and culturally. GOP candidates who want to win, in other words, should think of the state as a pair of scissors. Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. Stephen P. Hanna is professor and chair of geography at UMW.V VIRGINIA CAPITOL CONNECTIONS, SPRING 2014 10.