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Proceed with Caution

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Proceed with Caution PROCEED WITH CAUTION January 2016 Who is Stifel? Stifel Research:* – Largest U.S. equity research platform – 136 Senior analysts across 12 industry verticals – 1,827 companies under coverage – We are ranked 3rd globally in small-cap coverage and 13th overall in global coverage Stifel is a market maker in roughly 3,700 U.S. domestic equities Source: Stifel *Includes KBW & UK 2 Stifel REIT Team Analysts John W. Guinee Office, Industrial Matthew S. Heinz, CFA Data Centers & Towers Nathan Isbee Retail Rod Petrik Multifamily, Lodging Chad Vanacore Healthcare Simon Yarmak, CFA Triple-Nets, Lodging Associates Erin Aslakson Office, Industrial Seth Canetto Healthcare David Corak, CFA Multifamily James Holmes Data Centers & Towers Jennifer Hummert Retail Kyle McGrady Office, Industrial Elizabeth Moran Healthcare Joseph van Bemmelen Triple-Nets, Lodging Stifel does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Pricing as of December 30, 2015 unless otherwise noted. All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 133-135 of this report. 3 REITs Up Modestly In 2015 Source: FactSet Research Systems, Stifel 4 2015 Relative Performance 15.0% 2.8% 10.0% 2.5% 5.0% 10 - Year Treasury Yield 2.3% 0.0% Performance 2.0% -5.0% 1.8% -10.0% -15.0% 1.5% RMZ 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: SNL Financial 5 Storage Led The Way In 2015 Source: FactSet Research Systems, NAREIT, Stifel 6 2015 In Summary: Is It Over Yet? 10-Year Treasury was range bound 2.20% +/- 30 bps Modest economic growth (GDP +2.1%) REITs still modestly outperformed most major indices Sector performance divergence (storage +42.4% vs. lodging -22.8%) Quality largely outperformed M&A occurred with minimal ripple effect Most REITs lost their cost of capital advantage 7 Stifel’s 2015 Best Ideas Total 2015 Stifel Best Ideas Total Returns Sector Stock Return 40.0% Data Centers QTS* 38.1% Industrial TRNO 14.3% 30.0% Triple-Net STOR 13.2% Shopping Center EQY 11.3% 20.0% Industrial DRE 9.8% Multi-Family CPT 8.8% 10.0% Malls GGP 0.0% Office SLG -2.1% 0.0% Office VNO -2.7% Healthcare NHI -7.0% -10.0% Lodging CLDT -24.8% Healthcare SBRA -27.7% -20.0% Weighted Avg. Weighted Avg. 1.8% RMS REIT Index RMS REIT Index3.4% -30.0% Alpha -1.6% Source: FactSet Research Systems Best Ideas from 2015 Stifel Rollout, January 2015 *QTS was not in the 2015 Rollout 8 M&A Activity – Mostly Public To Private REIT M&A Activity 2004-2015 $100 25 2015 M&A Participants: Buyer Seller $90 Blackstone Group Excel Trust Inc. (EXL) Brookfield Asset Management Associated Estates Realty Corp. (AEC) $80 20 Lone Star Investment Advisors Home Properties Inc. (HME) CyrusOne (CONE) Cervalis $70 QTS Realty (QTS) Carpathia Transactions Digital Realty (DLR) Telx $60 15 Equinix (EQIX) Bit-isle $50 Announced: Chambers Street Properties (CSG) Gramercy Property Trust (GPT) $40 10 Blackstone Group Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE) (in billions) (in Blackstone Group BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) $30 Harrison Street Real Estate Capital Campus Crest Communities (CCG) Weyerhauser Company (WY) Plum Creek Timber Co. (PCL) $20 5 American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) American Residential Properties Inc. (ARPI) Equinix (EQIX) Telecity $10 $0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Equity Value Total Value Source: SNL Financial, Stifel estimates Updated through 12/30/15 9 Interest Rates Important – But Not the Whole Story 10-Year Treasury Yield vs NAREIT FTSE All Equity Price Index and S&P 500 12.0% 800 6/30/2006 12/31/13 9/30/1987 5/31/2000 10-Yr. 5.14% 10-Yr. 3.04% 10-Yr. 9.59% 10-Yr. 6.44% NAREIT Index 511.55 NAREIT Index 510.33 NAREIT Index 219.59 11/30/1994 NAREIT Index 243.55 REITs +71.1% REITS 12.9% REITs -0.6% 10-Yr. 7.96% REITs -7.8% 700 NAREIT Index 204.46 10.0% REITs -15.5% 600 8.0% 500 9/30/1986 6.0% 10-Yr. 6.92% 400 NAREIT Index 220.86 4/30/13 Index Price 10-Yr. 1.67% NAREIT Index 585.66 300 10/31/1993 4.0% 10-Yr. 5.33% NAREIT Index 241.95 10/31/1998 6/30/2003 200 10-Yr. 4.53% 10-Yr. 3.28% NAREIT Index 264.26 NAREIT Index 298.98 2.0% 100 0.0% - Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 10 Yr Treasury Yield NAREIT FTSE All Equity Index Source: FactSet Research Systems, Stifel 10 Outlook & Recommendations 2016 11 Proceed With Caution Wide gap between top and bottom tier stocks Stocks with strong earnings growth and solid balance sheets continue to outperform NAV and FFO multiple discounts are not a catalyst More sectors will experience a deceleration of fundamentals NAVs being questioned by a lack of buyer depth for lower quality assets Interest rate volatility could remain an overhang REIT sector performance driven by funds flow and the search for the incremental investor REIT sub-sectors and stock performance driven by REIT dedicated investors 12 Where are REITs and Real Estate? January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 10-year Treasury at +/- 10-year Treasury at 2.20% 10-year Treasury at 2.40% 2.10% with range bound with modest upward with modest upward forecast incremental movements incremental movement Private Investors have cost Private market has Private market still has a cost of capital advantage significant cost of capital of capital advantage advantage Cap rates declining; all asset Cap rates have bottomed, Cap rates expected to quality levels but with fewer bidders increase slightly Spread investing perceived Spread investing limited to Spread investing still limited as ‘difficult’ select REITs Risk-off trade globally; yield Real estate is late in its cycle Late in the real estate cycle matters for most property types Generalists involved, but Generalist investors are the Generalist investors are still reluctant incremental investor the incremental investor Source: Stifel Research 13 Broader Markets – The REIT Fit? All about growth Equity Markets Risk on/off trade constantly changing Multiple expansion likely finished Projected earnings growth: 3% - 5% S&P 500 Average dividend: 2% Total annual return: 5% - 7% Interest rate overhang Bond Market Sub-3% income Principal risk Investors want equity-like returns REIT Fit Interest rate overhang Top-down fundamentals Source: Stifel estimates 14 Funds Flows Overview Domestic REIT Dedicated Inflows Thru Nov. ($ in Billions) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mutual Funds Actively Managed $2.5 $3.2 $2.9 $3.4 $1.2 ($4.5) Passive (Index) $0.7 $1.0 $2.2 $3.1 $3.2 $1.6 Exchange Traded Funds $1.5 $3.2 $8.1 $2.9 $6.4 $0.8 $4.6 $7.4 $13.2 $9.5 $10.8 ($2.1) Assumes 50% of global funds flows invested domestically Source: Morningstar, Stifel estimates Domestic Institutional – REIT interest modest due to late real estate cycle and rising interest rate perceptions Global Institutional – flight to safety and principal protection-oriented Global Individual – Japanese funds flows constant while flows from other nations remain minor *Data above may not sum exactly due to rounding 15 Funds Flows – Absolute & Percentage 1/29/10 12/31/10 12/30/11 12/31/12 12/31/13 12/31/14 11/30/15 RMZ Equity Market Capitalization ($ Billions) $212 $317 $363 $449 $531 $727 $757 Japan-Domiciled U.S. REIT AUM as a % of the RMZ Mkt. Cap 6.9% 8.4% 11.3% 10.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.7% U.S. MF/ETF AUM as a % of the RMZ Mkt. Cap 24.4% 23.2% 23.1% 25.0% 19.2% 21.4% 20.2% Combined 31.3% 31.6% 34.4% 35.3% 27.4% 28.7% 26.9% Source: Morningstar 16 Debt Market Conditions Spreads have widened CMBS market is functioning properly and lenders are providing appropriate capital to markets BBB Index Yield Spread to 10 Year Treasury Yield CMBS Issuance ($B) 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert, Stifel estimates Source: FactSet 17 Investment Sales Market & Net Asset Value Perceived late cycle risk Private market has cost of capital advantage: Fewer real bidders Cap rates have bottomed Public REIT Private Investor Leverage Level +/- 40% > 70% Debt costs on upward Term 7 years (+/-) < 5 years trajectory Debt Cost 3.4% < 4.0% (weighted avg.) Equity Invested 60% < 30% Still strength in core asset sales Initial Equity Return 6% – 8% 8% – 10% Estimated Cost of Capital 5.0% – 6.2% 4.8% – 5.4% Public leads private market (70% LTV, Private) valuations Source: Stifel Research 18 Private Markets & Public REITs: Similar Attributes Capitalization Rates explicitly underwrite growth and value creation Cap Rate Range Investment Attributes Private Investors REITs Sub 5% - Expect NOI growth greater than inflation - Core - Coastal Multi-Family - Meaningful barriers to entry - Global Pension Funds - Best Gateway City Office - Sovereign Wealth Funds - Storage - Best Malls 5%-6% - Expect Value Creation - Domestic Pension Funds - Other Multi-Family - Rental rate increase likely - Other Gateway City Office - Possible Barriers to Entry - Best Strip Centers - Best NNN - Best Industrial 6%-7% - Rents in place at market - Many Types of Investors - Private Pay Healthcare - Few barriers to entry - Other Industrial - Solid demand, sound fundamentals Development in check 7%-8% - Primary component of return is levered NOI - Value-Add - Suburban Office Average fundamentals - High Leverage - Gov't Reimbursed Healthcare - Lower Quality NNN Above 8% - Investment underwriting
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