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Assessment of Freight Modal Shift and Emissions Through Dry Port Development

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Assessment of Freight Modal Shift and Emissions Through Dry Port Development Climate Change and Transport: Assessment of Freight Modal Shift and Emissions through Dry Port Development MADAN B. REGMI BE (Civil), MSc, MBA (09D18051) A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Engineering in International Development Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology School of Science and Engineering Department of International Development Engineering Tokyo, Japan 3 February 2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The thought of academic research and possible PhD started while exploring options for my sabbatical leave. I landed in Tokyo Tech in 2009 and decided to carry it through and explore the academic world further. I would like to express my appreciation to my academic advisor Dr. Shinya Hanaoka for his advice and guidance provided to me during the course of the research. I would like to extend my appreciation to all professors of the Transport Study Unit and the Department of International Development Engineering for their valuable advice, comments and feedback provided to me during the doctoral seminars and departmental presentations. I highly appreciate and value the words of encouragement and advice received from Prof. Tetsuo Yai. Similarly, I thank Dr. Yasunori Muromachi, Dr. Naoya Abe, and Dr. Daisuke Fukuda for their valuable suggestions and advice on my research. I am thankful to the members of the Hanaoka Research Group for their company during my stay at Tokyo and at times responding to my difficult queries. I also would like to thank Ms. Tomoko Tanaka and Ms. Tomoko Matsuzaki for their support during my research and stay in Tokyo. I would like to acknowledge the support and encouragement of my colleagues at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, East Nippon Expressway Company Limited, Infrastructure Development Institute, Central Consultants and other offices and above all making my stay in Tokyo enjoyable and assuring. I would also like to thank my friend Dr. Surya Raj Acharya for his encouragement and reassuring me at difficult junctures. I would like to express my appreciation to the officials of the Laos International Freight Forwarder’s Association, Vientiane and Laem Chabang Port Authority in Thailand for assisting in data collection and arranging meetings. Also, thanks are due to the transport officials in Asia and government officials in Laos for providing their valuable feedback on my survey. I would like to express my appreciation to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok for approving my request for PhD and the Office of Human Resources Management, New York for providing me the opportunity to undertake the research under sabbatical leave initially. I would also like to acknowledge the support of Mr. Dong-Woo Ha, Director, Transport Division for providing flexibility on my work and other colleagues for their encouragement. This would have not been possible without support of my wife Anju and daughter Shreeya, both for sacrificing their family time, coping with my long absence from home as well as tolerating my unusual schedule while at home. I promise to compensate for the missed family time. 3 February 2012, Tokyo i ABSTRACT The recent frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in Asia provides evidence of increased intensity and frequency of climate events. On one hand, the transport sector is affected by these climate events; on the other hand, transport system contributes to the global warming through emissions of greenhouse gases. The current research attempts to analyze and address the issues of adaptation and mitigation in the transport sector in Asian context. Firstly, an assessment of impacts of climate change on transport was done through a survey of transport policy makers in Asia. The result showed the need to create awareness, plan and design transport infrastructure with consideration of the likely impacts of climate change and the need for greater collaboration among agencies. It also highlighted the importance of strategic environmental assessment and environmental impact assessment and identified the need to review design philosophy and consider life cycle costing while developing adaptation strategy. With respect to mitigation, the research looked at the potential of freight modal shift through the development of dry ports. The review of selected case studies of dry ports development in Asia revealed their potential environmental benefits. It also highlighted the importance of coordination among various stakeholders and agencies during the development and operation, importance of railway connectivity and the need to improve efficiency of transport operation between seaport and dry port. The four alternative locations of dry ports in Laos were analyzed using the analytic hierarchy process and the goal programming considering evaluation criteria such as transportation time, cost, intermodal transport connectivity, environmental impact and regional economic development. The analysis based on the feedback of policy makers and freight forwarders prioritized Thanalaeng which is close to the capital Vientiane. Stated preference survey of freight forwarders in Laos and Thailand was conducted to develop a mode choice model and estimate potential mode shift to railways from road. The respondents were asked to choose a freight mode in given scenario of transportation time, cost and reliability of the truck and train transportation between Laem Chabang seaport in Thailand and Thanalaeng in Laos. The result showed that a modal shift of 43% from road to railways is possible in base case scenario, provided that dry port is developed and freight train service is available. Assessment of CO2 emission from the freight transport operation was done considering the mode shift. The result indicates a 30% reduction of CO2 emission was possible at the base case scenario compared to business-as-usual corresponding to a 43% mode shift to railways. Scenario analysis showed that the mode shift would vary from 32% to 54% and the corresponding CO2 emissions reduction would also vary from 23% to 39% depending on the scenario considered. Life cycle emission assessment of the construction of dry port at Thanalaeng showed that the construction emissions would be compensated by emissions reduction from mode shift within three years of start of operation of freight train service. The application of integrated methodology enabled to explore environmental benefits of the dry ports development in addition to its function as logistics and distribution centre. The various results and information that would be useful to decision makers can be derived through application of the methodology and to make informed decision. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Title Page Acknowledgements i Abstract ii Table of Contents iii List of Tables vii List of Figures ix 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Problem statement 2 1.3 Research questions 4 1.4 Research objectives 4 1.5 Research framework 4 1.6 Scope and limitation 5 1.6.1 Scope and study area 5 1.6.2 Limitation 6 1.7 Scholarly contribution of the research 6 1.8 Structure of the thesis 7 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 9 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 Sustainable transport development 9 2.2.1 Adaptation 10 2.2.1.1 Climate change and transport 11 2.2.1.2 Adaptation measures 12 2.2.1.3 Design review 13 2.2.1.4 Life cycle costing 13 2.2.2 Mitigation 14 2.2.2.1 Energy use in the transport sector 14 2.2.2.2 Transport sector emissions 15 2.2.2.3 Emissions measurement 18 2.2.2.4 Freight mode share 25 2.3 Intermodal transport 28 2.3.1 Transport links 29 2.3.2 Transport nodes 29 2.3.3 Transport services 30 2.4 Development of dry ports 30 2.4.1 Definition and functions 31 2.4.2 Policies related to the dry ports 33 2.4.3 Benefits of dry port development 34 2.4.4 Contribution of dry ports to emissions mitigation 36 iii 2.4.5. Dry port location problem 36 2.5 Multi criteria decision analysis 38 2.5.1 Analytic hierarchy process 38 2.5.2 Location analysis using AHP 39 2.5.3 Multi-objective decision making 39 2.5.4 Goal programming 40 2.6 Mode choice 41 2.6.1 Stated preference (SP) experiment 43 2.6.2 Application of SP experiment in mode choice 44 2.7 Case of freight transport in Laos 44 2.8 Chapter summary 47 3. RESEARCH FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY 48 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 Integrated methodology and analysis modules 48 3.3 Module 1: Adaptation policy analysis 50 3.4 Module 2: Analysis of dry port development and location 51 3.4.1 Case studies of dry port development in Asia 51 3.4.2 Identification of decision criteria and sub-criteria 51 3.4.3 AHP model development 52 3.4.4 Weight derivation 53 3.4.5 Derivation of location priorities 56 3.4.6 Goal programming and AHP-Goal programming model 56 3.4.6.1 Goal programming 56 3.4.6.2 Combined AHP-GP model 57 3.5 Module 3: Mode choice model 59 3.5.1 Model structure 59 3.5.2 Attributes 59 3.5.3 Utility functions 60 3.5.4 Model estimation 60 3.6 Module 4: Assessment of CO2 emissions 61 3.6.1 Emissions from operation 61 3.6.2 Life cycle assessment of construction 61 3.7 Scenario and elasticity analysis 62 3.8 Model limitation 62 3.9 Data collection and surveys 63 3.10 Chapter summary 64 4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TRANSPORT 65 4.1 Introduction 65 4.2 Regional climate predictions for Asia 65 4.3 Survey of impacts of climate change on transport 66 4.3.1 Questionnaire development 66 4.3.2 Selection of respondents 66 iv 4.3.3 Respondents details 66 4.3.4 Limitation of the survey 67 4.3.5 Findings of the survey 68 4.3.5.1 Awareness of climate change and adaptation 68 4.3.5.2 Emergency preparedness 69 4.3.5.3 Design standards and practices 70 4.3.5.4 Policies, institutions and coordination 72 4.3.5.5 Additional feedback from the respondents 74 4.3.5.6 Summary of findings 75 4.4 Assessment of impacts of climate change on transport 76 4.5 Adaptation strategies 77 4.5.1.
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