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Views on the Economy and Price-Level Targeting
Views on the Economy and Price-Level Targeting Raphael Bostic President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Atlanta Economics Club Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Atlanta, Georgia May 21, 2018 • Atlanta Fed president and CEO Raphael Bostic speaks at the Atlanta Economics Club’s luncheon about the economy, his economic outlook, and the Fed’s inflation target. • Bostic: The economy is arguably as close to the Fed's employment and inflation goals as it's been over this expansion. • Bostic continues to see the economy growing above potential this year, around 2 1/2 percent, and slowing to its longer-run growth rate of around 1 3/4 percent over the medium term. • Bostic notes that an upside risk to his economic outlook is the prospect for capital spending given tax reform, while a downside risk is the uncertainty about changes in trade policy. • Bostic asks if the current monetary policy framework is still the right one, noting that once monetary policy has normalized, the federal funds rate will settle at a level significantly below historical norms. • Bostic explains that if the real rate of interest is likely to remain low, then giving the Fed enough room to fight even run-of-the-mill economic downturns requires boosting the nominal rate of interest. • To increase the nominal rate, Bostic is drawn to a monetary policy framework that has a version of price-level targeting. • Bostic believes a sound policy framework provides a credible nominal anchor while maintaining flexibility to address changing circumstances, and flexible price-level targeting can be a part of such a framework. -
IFFCBANO Symposium: Keeping Trade Moving
IFFCBANO Symposium: Keeping Trade Moving Adrienne C. Slack Regional Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - New Orleans Branch The views expressed here are my own, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. The Fed’s Dual Mandate • The Fed is pursuing two objectives as given to us by Congress— maximum employment and price stability. • The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the job market, although a stronger economy does help with job creation. • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has chosen an inflation target of two percent per year over the medium term as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. 2 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Randal Quarles Jerome H. Powell Richard H. Clarida Lael Brainard Vice Chair for Chair Vice Chair Supervision Vacant Michelle W. Bowman Vacant 3 The Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Loretta Mester Charles Evans Neel Kashkari Patrick Harker Eric Rosengren Cleveland Chicago Minneapolis Philadelphia Boston 4th District 7th District 9th District 3rd District 1st District John Williams New York 2nd District Tom Barkin Richmond 5th District Mary Daly San Francisco Esther George Raphael Bostic Robert Kaplan James Bullard 12th District Kansas City Atlanta 10th District Dallas St. Louis 6th District 11th District 8th District 4 The Sixth District Information Flow Public Sixth Policy District Business Sixth FOMC District Research Sixth Atlanta District Board of President Directors 6 Summary of the Economic Environment: The May 2019 FOMC Policy Statement • Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. -
The Fed in the Changing Room
ECONOMIC POLICY NOTE 16/10/2017 The Fed in the changing room AGNIESZKA GEHRINGER President Trump will soon nominate new members to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee. The new nomination could lead to a change in the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. Consistency and predictability are not the strengths of this US president. Hence, his appointments may well induce some market volatility. The US Federal Reserve is in a changing room. campaign has not been heard since. The Three out of seven positions on its Board of president has even turned to “like low rates”.1 Governors are vacant. Moreover, the term of This leaves a good chance for a candidate Janet Yellen chairing the Board and thus the promising a continuation of the cautious Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy course under Janet Yellen. But expires on January 31, 2018. President Donald other options remain on the cards. Trump could grasp the opportunity to shape the US monetary policy in the foreseeable future How might the FOMC change in 2018? and nominate candidates – both for the Board The FOMC consists of twelve members: seven of Governors and among them for the FOMC- members of the Board of Governors of the chair – who best suit his policy preferences. Federal Reserve System; the president of the There are some uncertainties in the process. Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of Most importantly, it is difficult to figure out the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, which exact policy priorities would drive the who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.2 president’s choice. -
Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (2011) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 2011, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61994 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), -
Commercial Real Estate Grapples with Going Green in Recession
Print California Real Estate Journal Online Article Page 1 of 4 California Real Estate Journal Newswire Articles www.carealestatejournal.com © 2009 The Daily Journal Corporation. All rights reserved. • select Print from the File menu above CREJ FRONT PAGE • Jan. 26, 2009 Commercial Real Estate Grapples With Going Green in Recession California developers and manufacturers await details of Obama's stimulus plan Developers and manufactures await details of Obama's stimulus plan By KEELEY WEBSTER CREJ Staff Writer Even as U.S. President Barack Obama has been making headlines for his "green team" and a proposal to invest $150 billion over the next 10 years in green energy, Hayward-based Optisolar was forced to lay off 130 employees, or 50 percent of its workforce. Optisolar Inc., a vertically integrated manufacturer of solar panels, is down, but not out. "We are hopeful that the new attitude in Washington will enable us to come out of this holding pattern," said Alan Bernheimer, the company's vice president of corporate communications. The employees who were laid off were hired to deal with the exponential growth the company was expecting after the interest in all-things-green took off and a series of federal, state and local policies and legislative initiatives took form to promote green business and development. But when Optisolar was not able to access the equity investment it needed for its planned manufacturing expansion, it was forced to trim staffing to what the current state of the business could support, Bernheimer said. That state includes a solar farm under construction in Canada. -
Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization
For release on delivery 12:30 p.m. EDT July 11, 2017 Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization Remarks by Lael Brainard Member Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Normalizing Central Banks’ Balance Sheets: What Is the New Normal?” a conference sponsored by Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, New York July 11, 2017 When the central banks in many advanced economies embarked on unconventional monetary policy, it raised concerns that there might be differences in the cross-border transmission of unconventional relative to conventional monetary policy.1 These concerns were sufficient to warrant a special Group of Seven (G-7) statement in 2013 establishing ground rules to address possible exchange rate effects of the changing composition of monetary policy.2 Today the world confronts similar questions in reverse. In the United States, in my assessment, normalization of the federal funds rate is now well under way, and the Federal Reserve is advancing plans to allow the balance sheet to run off at a gradual and predictable pace. And for the first time in many years, the global economy is experiencing synchronous growth, and authorities in the euro area and the United Kingdom are beginning to discuss the time when the need for monetary accommodation will diminish. Unlike in previous tightening cycles, many central banks currently have two tools for removing accommodation. They can therefore pursue alternative normalization strategies--first seeking to guide policy rates higher before initiating balance sheet runoff, as in the United States, or instead starting to shrink the balance sheet before initiating a 1 I am grateful to John Ammer, Bastian von Beschwitz, Christopher Erceg, Matteo Iacoviello, and John Roberts for their assistance in preparing this text. -
Jelena Mcwilliams-FDIC
www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Jelena McWilliams-FDIC Voice of the American Sovereign (VOAS) The lawless Municipal Government operated by the "US CONGRESS" Washington, D.C., The smoking gun; do you get it? John Murtha – Impostor committed Treason – Time to sue his estate… Trust through Transparency - Jelena McWilliams - FDIC Chair Theft through Deception - Arnie Rosner - American sovereign, a Californian — and not a US Citizen via the fraudulent 14th Amendment. Sovereignty! TRUMP – THE AMERICAN SOVEREIGNS RULE AMERICA! All rights reserved - Without recourse - 1 of 120 - [email protected] - 714-964-4056 www-scannedretina.com Jelena McWilliams-FDIC 1.1. The FDIC responds - the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. From: FDIC NoReply <[email protected]> Subject: FDIC Reply - 01003075 Date: April 29, 2019 at 6:36:46 AM PDT To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Reply-To: [email protected] April 29, 2019 Ref. No.: 01003075 Re: MUFG Union Bank, National Association, San Francisco, CA Dear Arnold Beryl Rosner: Thank you for your correspondence, which was received by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC's mission is to ensure the stability of and public confidence in the nation's financial system. To achieve this goal, the FDIC has insured deposits and promoted safe and sound banking practices since 1933. We are responsible for supervising state- chartered, FDIC-insured institutions that are not members of the Federal Reserve System. Based on our review of your correspondence, the bank you referenced is under the direct supervision of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. -
Is Inflation Really Transitory?
Is Inflation Really Transitory? By Eric Grover National Review August 17, 2021 Financial-market indicators point to a persistent uptick in inflation. DESPITE a few recent hints of unease, the Fed still maintains that the current surge in inflation is “transitory.” That seems optimistic: The central bank has been stoking inflation and is stubbornly blind to the danger of getting more than it bargained for, of letting loose what Nobel Prize– winning economist Friedrich Hayek described as the “tiger.” Fed chairman Paul Volcker caged inflation after it’d crested at 13.5 percent in 1980. Since then, however, the Fed, politicians, consumers, and producers have become complacent about the risk that it might escape again. The current cocktail of money-printing, massive deficit spending, pandemic- related supply-chain disruptions, and pent-up demand coming out of COVID-19 hibernation means inflation ahead — and not just for the short term. The outlook is only made worse by the hit to the supply side that will come from increased regulation and taxes, not to speak of the boost to energy costs that will flow from the administration’s hostility to fossil fuels. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion in August 2008 to a whopping $8.2 trillion in mid July 2021. However, by paying banks interest to park excess reserves held at the Fed, the central bank has managed to keep new dollars from entering the economy in the form of credit, thereby holding down inflation. Now, printed money is showing up in consumption and price data, and the longer the “transitory” surge endures, the more difficult it will be to contain. -
The Economics of Climate Change: a First Fed Conference Galina B
FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-31 | December 16, 2019 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses. The scientific community around the world has reached a broad consensus on the ongoing climate change caused by human activities. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and the sea level has risen” (p. 40). Scientists also attribute more frequent and extreme storms, floods, droughts, and heat waves to these adverse developments (U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018, hereafter USGCRP). This climate change will have sweeping effects on our economy and financial system (Network for Greening the Financial System 2018, hereafter NGFS; USGCRP 2018). Climate-related shifts in the physical environment can slow economic growth, increase volatility, and depreciate the value of business and household assets and property. Avoiding further climate change will involve a substantial transformation of the economy. -
Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial. -
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: the CRA—Safety and Soundness Pinch
The rising costs of complying with super- visory demands have brought the issue of regu- Between a Rock latory burden to the attention of both law- makers and bank regulators. But one relatively underappreciated aspect of regulatory burden is and a Hard Place: the potential for the supervisory process to impose conflicting demands on banks. In October 1977, Congress passed the The CRA—Safety and Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) as Title VIII of the Housing and Community Development Act. The legislation was designed to encourage Soundness Pinch commercial banks and thrifts to help meet the credit needs of their communities, including low- Jeffery W. Gunther and moderate-income neighborhoods, in a manner consistent with safe and sound banking prac- tices. In 1989, the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act established four possible composite CRA ratings: 1—outstanding; 2—satisfactory; 3—needs to improve; and 4— substantial noncompliance. Federal agencies anking entails risk, historically considered twelve factors in decid- B ing how well financial institutions were meeting but can regulators the goals of the CRA (see Garwood and Smith 1993). Revised regulations announced in April decide how much 1995 replaced these factors with three tests—of lending, investment, and service—with the risk is appropriate? lending test receiving the most weight.1 Examiners have always focused on lend- ing activity in determining a bank’s CRA rating. The revised CRA rules reflect this focus, as it is difficult for a bank to receive an overall satis- factory rating unless its lending performance is satisfactory. In rating CRA compliance, regula- tors assess such factors as a bank’s overall lend- ing activity in its market area and the degree to which the bank provides credit throughout its market, with particular emphasis on low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and individu- als as well as small businesses and farms. -
Rebuilding the Research Capacity at Hud
Institute of Fisher Center for Business and Real Estate and Economic Research Urban Economics PROGRAM ON HOUSING AND URBAN POLICY WORKING PAPER SERIES PROFESSIONAL REPORT NO. P10-001 REBUILDING THE RESEARCH CAPACITY AT HUD By The Committee to Evaluate The Research Plan of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, of the National Research Council 2008 These papers are preliminary in nature: their purpose is to stimulate discussion and comment. Therefore, they are not to be cited or quoted in any publication without the express permission of the author. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY Rebuilding the Research Capacity at HUD Committee to Evaluate the Research Plan of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, National Research Council ISBN: 0-309-12568-5, 236 pages, 6 x 9, (2008) This free PDF was downloaded from: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12468.html Visit the National Academies Press online, the authoritative source for all books from the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council: ! Download hundreds of free books in PDF ! Read thousands of books online, free ! Sign up to be notified when new books are published ! Purchase printed books ! Purchase PDFs ! Explore with our innovative research tools Thank you for downloading this free PDF. If you have comments, questions or just want more information about the books published by the National Academies Press, you may contact our customer service department toll-free at 888-624-8373, visit us online, or send an email to [email protected]. This free book plus thousands more books are available at http://www.nap.edu.