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Social Structure and Civil War Mobilization in Montenegro

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Social Structure and Civil War Mobilization in Montenegro COUSINS IN ARMS: SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND CIVIL WAR MOBILIZATION IN MONTENEGRO By Vujo Ilić Submitted to Central European University Doctoral School of Political Science, Public Policy and International Relations In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Supervisor: Erin Kristin Jenne Budapest, Hungary CEU eTD Collection 2019 Abstract Many contemporary civil wars occur in segmentary societies, in which social structure rests on cohesive social groups. These wars tend to produce fast, extensive mobilizations of civilians, yet this reoccurring connection has mostly evaded a systematic analysis. This thesis explains why and how such social structure affects the dynamics of civil war mobilization. Unlike most existing civil war mobilization literature, the theory identifies both prewar and wartime factors, as well as both social groups and armed actors, as the determinants of mobilization. The theory proposes that civil war mobilization is determined primarily by the pre-war social structure and the wartime armed actors’ effects on social structure. The more pre-war social structure rests on cohesive social groups, the more it enables individuals to mobilize in insurgencies effectively. However, the pre-war structure is necessary but not a sufficient explanation for civil war mobilization. When a war starts, armed actors gain a crucial role. Mobilization dynamics during wartime depends on armed actors’ behavior, especially military and political decisions that affect social group cohesion. The horizontal ties of solidarity between group members enable fast and extensive collective action. However, if the armed actors disturb the vertical group status relations, this can change the extent and direction of civilian participation in the war. To test these propositions, the empirical part of the thesis conducts a micro-comparative historical analysis of the civil war in Montenegro during the Second World War. Empirical analysis shows that the cohesive kinship-based social groups effectively mobilized against the Italian occupation in the early phase of the war. In the second phase, the insurgents’ military and political decisions had disrupted group cohesion, and led to the civil war mobilization that pitted local armed actors against one another. The mechanisms of participation and recruitment are further explored on a micro-level, in a single county. This analysis presents qualitative and quantitative evidence collected from historical and ethnographic sources, used for the first time in a systematic comparative analysis. It shows that during the 1941 insurgency, tribal groups in Montenegro could mobilize fast and extensively against the outside military force, relying on strong ties between individuals, which existed before the war. The mobilization in the civil war between the local armed actors is attributed to the conflict generated by insurgents reversing the status of cohesive social groups. The alternative explanations of civil war mobilization are evaluated using several statistical tests, including multivariate regression and survival analysis. The analysis of municipal-level data collected from primary and secondary sources gives additional support to the social structure explanation of civil war mobilization, when pre-war economic, political, and wartime CEU eTD Collection military factors are accounted for. The evidence presented in the thesis indicates that social structure has a high explanatory potential for what appears as endless civil wars. It offers insights for the study of behavior of insurgent groups during wars, and their relations with civilians. It also invites further research and more comprehensive testing of the theory, in different contexts and with novel data. ii Acknowledgments This thesis would not have been possible without the advice and support of many people. I could not have asked for a better supervisor than Erin Jenne, who led me through this process with dedication, understanding, and wisdom. My committee members, Gabor Toka and Levente Littvay, helped with incredibly insightful comments. Stathis Kalyvas inspired me to study civil wars and offered invaluable advice and support over the years. Anastasia Shesterinina helped me work out what my dependent variable was and how to think beyond variables. I am thankful to Fotini Christia for the support, and my previous supervisors, Radmila Nakarada and Mária Kovács, for their guidance. During my studies, I was a recipient of a full CEU Doctoral Fellowship and several grants from the Central European University Foundation, as well as the pre-doctoral residential fellowship from the MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies at Yale. This has enabled me to conduct research and gain valuable feedback during the doctoral program. This thesis benefited from the feedback it received from the participants of the Program on Order, Conflict, and Violence Speaker Series, and Micro-Comparative Studies of 20th Century Conflict Conference at Yale University, Harvard-MIT-Yale Political Violence Conference at Harvard, City University of New York Graduate Center Comparative Politics Workshop, the Association for the Study of Nationalities Annual Convention at Columbia University, and Olympia Summer Seminar. At the Central European University, the research was also presented at the New International Relations of Eurasia and the Middle East workshop, Political Science departmental seminar, and more than once at the Doctoral School Annual Doctoral Conference, and the Conflict and Security Research Group. Receiving the Best Doctoral Student Paper Award from the Association for Study of Nationalities was a great encouragement. I am particularly thankful for useful comments, support, and advice to Achim Kemmerling, Adam Scharpf, Ana Arjona, András Bozóki, Benjamin Naimark-Rowse, Carsten Schneider, Christopher Price, Consuelo Amat, Daniel Fedorowycz, Dejan Jović, Elisabeth Wood, Eric Mosinger, Florian Bieber, Francesca Grandi, Gregory Mitrovich, Harris Mylonas, Isabela Mares, Jessica Mahlbacher, Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl, Juergen Brandsch, Julián Casanova, Laia Balcells, Martijn Vlaskamp, Matthew Kocher, Matthijs Bogaards, Max Bergholz, Miloš Popović, Mladen Mrdalj, Philip Martin, Roger Petersen, Rogers Brubaker, Stephen Moncrief, Susan Woodward, Tamás Meszerics, Valentin Schmite, Wolfgang Stoetz, Yvan Guichaoua, and Zsolt Enyedi. CEU eTD Collection During the research, I visited and collected data from Istorijski institut, Centralna univerzitetska biblioteka, Narodna biblioteka in Podgorica, Nacionalna biblioteka Crne Gore in Cetinje, Arhiv Jugoslavije, Narodna biblioteka Srbije in Belgrade, and Yale University Library in New Haven. Talks with Bojan Baća, Boris Ristović, Radoslav Raspopović, and Šerbo Rastoder had introduced me to the complexity of Montenegro’s history and society. iii Being an outsider to Montenegro meant I had to start from the basics, but it also helped in trying to approach a divisive period of its history objectively. In dealing with the topic of the war, I intended to treat it in a way that would be worthy of the gravity of suffering it caused. I hope I succeeded. I intended to collect more data from archives and interviews, do more analyses, better analyses, and refine the theory. However, for this dissertation to exist, it had to be submitted at some point. I see this thesis as a semicolon, not a full stop. The CEU experience was enriched by the company of my fellow students, especially Ewa, Jan, Viktor, Stanislav, Ruth, and Szabolcs, who were friends when I needed them. Without the encouragement from Amy, I would never have started this program. I shared a home and a cat with Paris and Despina, and the little room with Alice and Miloš. It was great fun. Katarina solved many problems with the first and the worst drafts. Dobrica was unquestionably always there. Thanks to Jovana, and Thomas for the driving experience through the Bjelopavlići field. While I was writing the thesis, the outside world would not hold still. I was a part of a great elections campaign with Ne davimo Beograd, and the office at Ministarstvo prostora was for a while home away from home, shared with Iva, Marko, Ksenija, Radomir, and Dušan. I enjoyed working with, and learned a lot from the Crta team, especially Vukosava, Raša, Aleksandra, Ivana, Tamara, Pavle and Tara, as well as Mahsuma and Marko from the NDI Serbia. I am most thankful to the closest ones. Iva made every single day of the writing process better. My family was the foundation, the support, and the inspiration for my studies. Thank you, Jovanka, Milka, Gordana, Aleksandar, Øistein, Eir, Yngvild, and Mia. I wish Mihajlo could read this. The dialogue is, nevertheless, constant. CEU eTD Collection iv Declaration I hereby declare that no parts of this thesis have been accepted for any other degrees in any other institutions. This thesis contains no materials previously written and/or published by another person, except where acknowledgement is made in the form of bibliographic reference. Vujo Ilić December 31, 2019 CEU eTD Collection v Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ iii CHAPTER ONE. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................
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