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Australia's Contribution to Antarctic Climate Science

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Australia's Contribution to Antarctic Climate Science Australia’s contribution to Antarctic climate science AUSTRALIA’S ANTARCTIC SCIENCE PROGRAM Edited by D. Michael Stoddart Australian Antarctic Division April 2008 photographs © Commonwealth of Australia Contents 1 – Introduction 1 2 – The Antarctic Ice Sheet and sea-level 4 3 – Sea Ice 8 4 – The Southern Ocean 12 5 – Reconstruction of past climates 16 6 – Antarctica’s Atmosphere 20 7 – Concluding remarks 22 8 – References 23 1 – Introduction Australia has had a long and distinguished record of research into Antarctica’s natural phenomena, including early fundamental studies into the nature of the ice sheet, ice shelves and sea ice. As the world’s attention focuses on changing climates in the 21st century that legacy of fundamental work, together with a large suite of interdisciplinary studies embracing the ocean around Antarctica, its biota, and the atmosphere above is of immense value in underpinning to a comprehensive understanding of contemporary change and its environmental consequences. This paper attempts to summarise the value of the contributions made by Australian scientists to international high-latitude climate science and to indicate the level of international visibility of Australian researchers in Antarctic science. For a country with a population of 20 million Australia’s impact in the international arena is widely felt. Antarctic science was recently identified as one of our international research strengths (PMSEIC 2006). Our natural advantages of proximity to Antarctica make access for scientific research easier than in the case for northern hemisphere nations. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) has highlighted the paucity of knowledge about the polar regions of the Earth, regions where climate change is expected to be greatest because of feedback processes involving ice and snow. In particular, the future response of polar ice sheets to global warming is the largest unknown in projecting future sea level rise. The development of more accurate climate predictions requires increased knowledge of the physics Aurora Australis approaching Mawson. Photograph Wayne Papps. and chemistry of the ice on the Antarctic continent and on the Southern Ocean. Antarctica’s vastness and the extent of its organizing committees and activities of the Scientific Committee on winter barrier of sea ice present great challenges to researchers Antarctic Research (e.g. Biological Investigation of Marine Antarctic as well as opportunities for international research leadership. Systems and Stocks, the Global Change and the Antarctic program; Increasingly, new satellites and robotic systems are providing Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate); of the World Climate new eyes on Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and Australian Research Programme (e.g. the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, scientists are at the forefront of research to validate their data. the Climate Variability and Predictability program, the Climate and Cryosphere program, the International Programme for Antarctic Australia’s Antarctic program is highly focused on research of Buoys); of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (e.g. strategic importance to our national future and has produced novel the Joint Global Ocean Flux Experiment, Global Ocean Ecosystem inter-disciplinary approaches to the question of Antarctica’s role – Dynamics); and many more. In this International Polar Year an and that of the high-latitude Southern Ocean – in the global climate Australian is a co-chair of the international planning committee system. Over many years our scientists have taken leadership roles and others are leading significant scientific studies in Antarctica in large-scale international research programs and continue to exert and co-leading or participating in over 40 others. Australians influence in setting research directions for the future. There are few continue to provide scientific leadership in major Antarctic and high-level international programs involving Antarctic and Southern Southern Ocean governance forums, such as the Committee for Ocean science which do not include leadership from Australian Environmental Protection of the Antarctic Treaty, the Scientific scientists. We have played, and continue to play leading roles in the Committees of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic 1 Melting sea ice, Tryne Islands. Photograph: Noel Tennant. Marine Living Resources, the International Whaling Committee, is training 97 Australian higher degree students. Formal and and the Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and informal links with international scientists number in the hundreds. Petrels. International and national recognitions have followed with About 150 peer-reviewed papers are published annually, with several of our scientists receiving accolades for their work, further a similar number of conference and ephemeral papers, making enhancing our national visibility in high southern latitude science. Australia’s program the third most productive in the world, following the USA and the UK (Dastidar and Persson 2005). In a recent review of Australia’s Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP) by Professor Susan Solomon, Chair of This paper summarises the part played by Australian scientists the IPCC Working Group 1, and Professor Will Steffen, and Australian research teams in high-latitude climate science. ANU, noted that Australian science “has been essential to Chapter 2 examines Australian research on ice sheet dynamics furthering the understanding of Southern Ocean physics and the interactions of ice shelves with the ocean underneath and chemistry, and identifying its links to climate change for which are providing crucially important information about how Australia and globally” (Solomon and Steffen, 2007). ice and ocean interact and transfer heat from one to another. The ocean is the greatest heat-pump on the planet and research Interdisciplinary studies involving scientists from the Australian on sea ice, examined in Chapter 3, focuses on how sea ice forms Antarctic Division, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology (principally modifies heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative and contributes to the circulation of the Earth’s oceans and Research Centre ACE CRC), the universities and colleagues from thus to the transportation of heat around the globe. A major overseas have enabled many significant research projects to be uncertainty for the future is the rate at which global sea level undertaken. Joint experiments with international collaborators have will continue to rise with global warming. The Greenland and brought many millions of dollars-worth of overseas investment Antarctic ice sheets could be the biggest contributors to this. to projects relevant to Australia’s goals in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. It is the twin philosophies of interdisciplinarity Unlike the Arctic, where large and extensive climate system and partnership which define Australia’s contribution to changes are occurring at present, continent-wide changes in the scientific knowledge of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Antarctic have yet to be detected. In part this is because our data base in the Antarctic is less complete and shorter, and in part Because of the logistical challenges posed by the conditions in because some Antarctic changes are regional. The thickness of the Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Australia has had to develop West Antarctic Ice Sheet is decreasing over large areas, and ice a system to tightly integrate its science to maximise the return for shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula are collapsing, but the East every dollar spent. The small size of Australia’s population and Antarctic Ice Sheet is showing little diminution, except in some limited research pool has encouraged it to forge the strongest outlet glacier systems such as the Totten Glacier near Casey. There partnerships with international collaborators. The program has been no statistically significant change in overall Antarctic now has links with 27 research institutions in 29 countries and sea ice extent since the satellite record began in the late 1980s, 2 although a decreasing trend is identified in the Bellingshausen/ Material for this paper has been provided by the Amundsen Sea (west Antarctic Peninsula) sector. Moreover, following people, in consultation with many others: insufficient data are available to determine whether any change has occurred in pack ice thickness over this period. Long-term Neil Adams BoM and ACE CRC studies near Davis Station do, however, reveal a delay in the Ian Allison AAD and ACE CRC time of year at which the annual land-fast ice cover attains its Leanne Armand ACE CRC maximum thickness, and this is linked to recent winter warming. Nathan Bindoff ACE CRC and CSIRO John Church CSIRO and ACE CRC Chapter 4 covers Australian contributions to Southern Ocean Michael Craven AAD and ACE CRC science. Our understanding of the changing biodiversity of organisms Mark Curran AAD and ACE CRC in the upper layers of the ocean is underpinned by knowledge of Marc Duldig AAD physical oceanography, where significant signs of environmental Petra Heil AAD and ACE CRC change are being identified from deep waters. In the deep oceans, Will Howard ACE CRC that part of Earth where some organisms have remained essentially Andrew Klekociuk AAD unchanged for over 500 million years, changes in the chemistry of Rob Massom AAD and ACE CRC the deep layers
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