Species and Landscapes and People Responses to Climate Change

Gary M. Tabor VMD MSC Center for Large Landscape Conservation Freedom to Roam www.climateconservation.org www.freedomtoroam.org Our concern in a word: FRAGMENTATION

Courtesy: C. Carroll 2005 Fragmentation Pace

U.S. is losing 2 million acres of natural land per year, or 6,000 acres per day

NRCS‐NRI and U.S. Service 2006 Historic expansions, contractions, persistence

Source: Laliberte and Ripple 2004 Source: BioScience, February 2004 / Vol.54 No.2, pp.123-138 Thinking Out of the Box: Moving from Pattern to Processes

1872 Solution

Yellowstone Postage Stamp Yellowstone National Park Targhee National Forest Boundary

National Park National Forest

Craigheads The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Pattern: Square to Polygon GPS TECHNOLOGY

Courtesy: R. Inman

Wolverine Dispersal In Yellowstone Diane Boyd and Paul Paquet 13 Glacier National Park

Flathead Lake

Bob Marshall

Grizzly Bear Movement in Swan Valley, Montana

Courtesy C. Servheen and Trust for Scale

What scale can ecological processes be maintained?

Spine of the Continent Yellowstone to Yukon Greater Yellowstone 16 Processes

Ecological Connectivity Natural Disturbance Regimes Fire Ecology Hydrology Water Catchment Migration Dispersal Disease Pollination Resilience Roam Wild and Free

Photos: Collopy, Tabor, Karesh, Paquet, Weaver TransCanada Highway Banff National Park

Road Rage Continental Ecological Bottleneck

Crowsnest Pass

Proctor, M., et al. 2005. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London. 272:2409‐2416 Grizzly Bear Density along the Y2Y Corridor Higher

Lower

N

Peel River Nahanni Muskwa Peace Mount Banff Crown of Yellowstone Watershed National Park Kechika Break Robson Jasper the Continent National Park Climate Change exacerbates Habitat Fragmentation

22 Climate Change: No Luxury of Time 24 Warming is accelerating, with the average rate over the past 50 years twice that of the previous 50 (IPCC, 2007) Temperature

Precipitation

WARMER and WETTER with SEASONAL EFFECTS

Source: Climate Impacts Group, 2009 Less Faithful 28 Retreated two kilometers since first photographed in 1887

Illecillewaet Glacier, circa 1898 Illecillewaet Glacier 1887-1996

Illecillewaet Glacier, Glacier National Park, BC NASA

Waterton‐Glacier

Glacier National Park archives Grinnell Glacier Hudson Bay

Atlantic Pacific

31 32 33 Other Visible Impacts

Bark Beetle Infestation Source: Raffa et al. 2008.

35 Carroll 2006, BC Ministry of

38 Changing Fire regime

• Frequency (fire return interval) • Intensity (heat output per unit time) • Severity (heat output and duration) • Seasonal distribution • Fuel consumption & spread (fuel types, fuel patchiness, fire size) Graumlich, Rowland and Hebda – Y2Y Report 2010 40 Poleward, Upward, Cooler Aspect Source: Biodiversity BC 42 The Concept of Transformation Novel Ecosystem Management

So how will species respond?

45 Species Turnover in National Parks

Everglades NP North Cascades NP

70 Max = 62% 60 Yellowstone 50 Mean = 22% (sd= 9%) Glacier 40 Min = 8% 30

% Turnover 20 10 0

A A E A E I O A O I O A A TE S R BA F BE R LIRI LC AR IC IR R E AVE W OJA ITH I BISO NE OM OLM UVA B C SEK P B B NOCAREDW BLC GOG G YO G C R C C G CHCU GUISCUGA C DE M WHS AMIS Parks

Courtesy: Josh Lawler Ph.D., University of Washington 47 48

Corridors Connectivity Large Landscapes #1 Recommendation: Increase Connectivity Mechanisms for Species Responses • Behavioral Adaptation –Tolerance • Phenotypic Plasticity • Genetic Adaptation ‐‐ Mutations • Ecological Adaptation ‐‐ Range Shifts • Social Adaptation • Extinction ? So what’s the human response

53 Policy Approaches that Enable Conservation Action

Western Governors Association Corridor Initiative Decision Support Systems Doing the Things We know that Work

56

Feds giving $1 million for wildlife research The five year project will study the movement of animals across the Trans Highway in the park By Larissa Barlow, Banff Crag & Canyon, April 13, 2010

58 A. Clevenger and M. Huijer Western Transportation Institute Sept. 2009 Banff National Park • Total monitored crossings from Nov 1996 to March 2009 • Data from 23 wildlife crossing structures

A. Clevenger and M. Huijer Western Transportation Institute Sept. 2009 Protect Crossings- Crowsnest Pass, Alberta Strategic Private Land Conservation Think and Act at Large Scales

Yellowstone to Yukon Yukon Flats Y2Y FAR NORTH National Wildlife Refuge Size Matters ! N U N A V U T A L A S K A Peel Watershed N O R T H W E S T T E R R I T O R I E S

Y U K O N T E R R I T O R I E S

Nahanni National Park Proposed Expansion Nahanni National Park

Wood Buffalo National Park

Muskwa Kechika

A L B E R T A

Climate Change dictates large scale conservation

Kilometers B R I T I S H CO L U M B I A 63 0 and125 ecological250 connectivity to maximize resilience CommEn Space 64 Adirondack Park Nahanni Park Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Crown of the Continent Project Areas B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A

A L B E R T A Waterton Lakes National Park

Glacier National Park

Flathead National M O N T A N A Forest

Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex

Lewis & Clark National Forest I D A H O Helena National Forest

Kilometers 66 0 50 100 CommEn Space Crown of the Continent Project Areas B R I T I S H Crowsnest C O L U M B I A Pass Castle Wilderness Flathead A L B E R T A Watershed Waterton Lakes National Park Waterton Park Glacier Expansion National Park

Flathead National M O N T A N A Forest

Rocky Bob Mountain Marshall Front Swan Wilderness Valley Complex

Lewis & Clark National Forest I D A H O Helena Blackfoot National Community Forest Project

Kilometers 67 0 50 100 CommEn Space DOI Great Northern LCC

Crown Pilot area ?

68 Freedom to Roam www.freedomtoroam.org

Building resilience • Maintain well‐functioning ecosystems • Protect a representative array of ecosystems with redundancy • Remove or minimize existing stressors • Enhance connectivity (self‐adapt) • Conserve Processes like Migration • Protect refugia • Improve conservation outside PAs Inspire Social Will

72 Conservation across all landscapes Conservation Framework

Deh Cho Conservation Lands

Great Bear Rainforest Canadian Boreal Initiative Two Country One Forest

Yellowstone to Yukon Continental Connectivity