Species and Landscapes and People Responses to Climate Change
Gary M. Tabor VMD MSC Center for Large Landscape Conservation Freedom to Roam www.climateconservation.org www.freedomtoroam.org Our concern in a word: FRAGMENTATION
Courtesy: C. Carroll 2005 Fragmentation Pace
U.S. is losing 2 million acres of natural land per year, or 6,000 acres per day
NRCS‐NRI and U.S. Forest Service 2006 Historic expansions, contractions, persistence
Source: Laliberte and Ripple 2004 Source: BioScience, February 2004 / Vol.54 No.2, pp.123-138 Thinking Out of the Box: Moving from Pattern to Processes
1872 Solution
Yellowstone Postage Stamp Yellowstone National Park Targhee National Forest Boundary
National Park National Forest
Craigheads The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
Pattern: Square to Polygon GPS TECHNOLOGY
Courtesy: R. Inman
Wolverine Dispersal In Yellowstone Diane Boyd and Paul Paquet 13 Glacier National Park
Flathead Lake
Bob Marshall Wilderness
Grizzly Bear Movement in Swan Valley, Montana
Courtesy C. Servheen and Trust for Public Land Scale
What scale can ecological processes be maintained?
Spine of the Continent Yellowstone to Yukon Greater Yellowstone 16 Processes
Ecological Connectivity Natural Disturbance Regimes Fire Ecology Hydrology Water Catchment Migration Dispersal Disease Pollination Resilience Roam Wild and Free
Photos: Collopy, Tabor, Karesh, Paquet, Weaver TransCanada Highway Banff National Park
Road Rage Continental Ecological Bottleneck
Crowsnest Pass
Proctor, M., et al. 2005. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London. 272:2409‐2416 Grizzly Bear Density along the Y2Y Corridor Higher
Lower
N
Peel River Nahanni Muskwa Peace Mount Banff Crown of Yellowstone Watershed National Park Kechika Break Robson Jasper the Continent National Park Climate Change exacerbates Habitat Fragmentation
22 Climate Change: No Luxury of Time 24 Warming is accelerating, with the average rate over the past 50 years twice that of the previous 50 (IPCC, 2007) Temperature
Precipitation
WARMER and WETTER with SEASONAL EFFECTS
Source: Climate Impacts Group, 2009 Less Faithful 28 Retreated two kilometers since first photographed in 1887
Illecillewaet Glacier, circa 1898 Illecillewaet Glacier 1887-1996
Illecillewaet Glacier, Glacier National Park, BC NASA
Waterton‐Glacier
Glacier National Park archives Grinnell Glacier Hudson Bay
Atlantic Pacific
31 32 33 Other Visible Impacts
Bark Beetle Infestation Source: Raffa et al. 2008.
35 Carroll 2006, BC Ministry of Forests
38 Changing Fire regime
• Frequency (fire return interval) • Intensity (heat output per unit time) • Severity (heat output and duration) • Seasonal distribution • Fuel consumption & spread (fuel types, fuel patchiness, fire size) Graumlich, Rowland and Hebda – Y2Y Report 2010 40 Poleward, Upward, Cooler Aspect Source: Biodiversity BC 42 The Concept of Transformation Novel Ecosystem Management
So how will species respond?
45 Species Turnover in National Parks
Everglades NP North Cascades NP
70 Max = 62% 60 Yellowstone 50 Mean = 22% (sd= 9%) Glacier 40 Min = 8% 30
% Turnover 20 10 0
A A E A E I O A O I O A A TE S R BA F BE R LIRI LC AR IC IR R E AVE W OJA ITH I BISO NE OM OLM UVA B C SEK P B B NOCAREDW BLC GOG G YO G C R C C G CHCU GUISCUGA C DE M WHS AMIS Parks
Courtesy: Josh Lawler Ph.D., University of Washington 47 48
Corridors Connectivity Large Landscapes #1 Recommendation: Increase Connectivity Mechanisms for Species Responses • Behavioral Adaptation –Tolerance • Phenotypic Plasticity • Genetic Adaptation ‐‐ Mutations • Ecological Adaptation ‐‐ Range Shifts • Social Adaptation • Extinction ? So what’s the human response
53 Policy Approaches that Enable Conservation Action
Western Governors Association Wildlife Corridor Initiative Decision Support Systems Doing the Things We know that Work
56
Feds giving $1 million for wildlife research The five year project will study the movement of animals across the Trans Canada Highway in the park By Larissa Barlow, Banff Crag & Canyon, April 13, 2010
58 A. Clevenger and M. Huijer Western Transportation Institute Sept. 2009 Banff National Park • Total monitored crossings from Nov 1996 to March 2009 • Data from 23 wildlife crossing structures
A. Clevenger and M. Huijer Western Transportation Institute Sept. 2009 Protect Crossings- Crowsnest Pass, Alberta Strategic Private Land Conservation Think and Act at Large Scales
Yellowstone to Yukon Yukon Flats Y2Y FAR NORTH National Wildlife Refuge Size Matters ! N U N A V U T A L A S K A Peel Watershed N O R T H W E S T T E R R I T O R I E S
Y U K O N T E R R I T O R I E S
Nahanni National Park Proposed Expansion Nahanni National Park
Wood Buffalo National Park
Muskwa Kechika
A L B E R T A
Climate Change dictates large scale conservation
Kilometers B R I T I S H CO L U M B I A 63 0 and125 ecological250 connectivity to maximize resilience CommEn Space 64 Adirondack Park Nahanni Park Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Crown of the Continent Project Areas B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A
A L B E R T A Waterton Lakes National Park
Glacier National Park
Flathead National M O N T A N A Forest
Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex
Lewis & Clark National Forest I D A H O Helena National Forest
Kilometers 66 0 50 100 CommEn Space Crown of the Continent Project Areas B R I T I S H Crowsnest C O L U M B I A Pass Castle Wilderness Flathead A L B E R T A Watershed Waterton Lakes National Park Waterton Park Glacier Expansion National Park
Flathead National M O N T A N A Forest
Rocky Bob Mountain Marshall Front Swan Wilderness Valley Complex
Lewis & Clark National Forest I D A H O Helena Blackfoot National Community Forest Project
Kilometers 67 0 50 100 CommEn Space DOI Great Northern LCC
Crown Pilot area ?
68 Freedom to Roam www.freedomtoroam.org
Building resilience • Maintain well‐functioning ecosystems • Protect a representative array of ecosystems with redundancy • Remove or minimize existing stressors • Enhance connectivity (self‐adapt) • Conserve Processes like Migration • Protect refugia • Improve conservation outside PAs Inspire Social Will
72 Conservation across all landscapes Conservation Framework
Deh Cho Conservation Lands
Great Bear Rainforest Canadian Boreal Initiative Two Country One Forest
Yellowstone to Yukon Continental Connectivity