Species and Landscapes and People Responses to Climate Change Gary M. Tabor VMD MSC Center for Large Landscape Conservation Freedom to Roam www.climateconservation.org www.freedomtoroam.org Our concern in a word: FRAGMENTATION Courtesy: C. Carroll 2005 Fragmentation Pace U.S. is losing 2 million acres of natural land per year, or 6,000 acres per day NRCS‐NRI and U.S. Forest Service 2006 Historic expansions, contractions, persistence Source: Laliberte and Ripple 2004 Source: BioScience, February 2004 / Vol.54 No.2, pp.123-138 Thinking Out of the Box: Moving from Pattern to Processes 1872 Solution Yellowstone Postage Stamp Yellowstone National Park Targhee National Forest Boundary National Park National Forest Craigheads The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Pattern: Square to Polygon GPS TECHNOLOGY Courtesy: R. Inman Wolverine Dispersal In Yellowstone Diane Boyd and Paul Paquet 13 Glacier National Park Flathead Lake Bob Marshall Wilderness Grizzly Bear Movement in Swan Valley, Montana Courtesy C. Servheen and Trust for Public Land Scale What scale can ecological processes be maintained? Spine of the Continent Yellowstone to Yukon Greater Yellowstone 16 Processes Ecological Connectivity Natural Disturbance Regimes Fire Ecology Hydrology Water Catchment Migration Dispersal Disease Pollination Resilience Roam Wild and Free Photos: Collopy, Tabor, Karesh, Paquet, Weaver TransCanada Highway Banff National Park Road Rage Continental Ecological Bottleneck Crowsnest Pass Proctor, M., et al. 2005. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London. 272:2409‐2416 Grizzly Bear Density along the Y2Y Corridor Higher Lower N Peel River Nahanni Muskwa Peace Mount Banff Crown of Yellowstone Watershed National Park Kechika Break Robson Jasper the Continent National Park Climate Change exacerbates Habitat Fragmentation 22 Climate Change: No Luxury of Time 24 Warming is accelerating, with the average rate over the past 50 years twice that of the previous 50 (IPCC, 2007) Temperature Precipitation WARMER and WETTER with SEASONAL EFFECTS Source: Climate Impacts Group, 2009 Less Faithful 28 Retreated two kilometers since first photographed in 1887 Illecillewaet Glacier, circa 1898 Illecillewaet Glacier 1887-1996 Illecillewaet Glacier, Glacier National Park, BC NASA Waterton‐Glacier Glacier National Park archives Grinnell Glacier Hudson Bay Atlantic Pacific 31 32 33 Other Visible Impacts Bark Beetle Infestation Source: Raffa et al. 2008. 35 Carroll 2006, BC Ministry of Forests 38 Changing Fire regime • Frequency (fire return interval) • Intensity (heat output per unit time) • Severity (heat output and duration) • Seasonal distribution • Fuel consumption & spread (fuel types, fuel patchiness, fire size) Graumlich, Rowland and Hebda – Y2Y Report 2010 40 Poleward, Upward, Cooler Aspect Source: Biodiversity BC 42 The Concept of Transformation Novel Ecosystem Management So how will species respond? 45 Species Turnover in National Parks 70 60 North Cascades NP 50 40 % Turnover30 20 Yellowstone 10 0 NOCA REDW Glacier BLCA GOGA Max = 62% Everglades NP GRTE Mean = 22% (sd= 9%) Courtesy: Josh LawlerBISO Ph.D., University of Washington LIRI Min = 8% YOSE GLCA CARE NERI ROMO COLM CUVA BICA CIRO Parks GRBA SEKI CHCU PEFO GUIS CUGA CAVE DEWA MOJA BITH BIBE WHSA AMIS 47 48 Corridors Connectivity Large Landscapes #1 Recommendation: Increase Connectivity Mechanisms for Species Responses • Behavioral Adaptation –Tolerance • Phenotypic Plasticity • Genetic Adaptation ‐‐ Mutations • Ecological Adaptation ‐‐ Range Shifts • Social Adaptation • Extinction ? So what’s the human response 53 Policy Approaches that Enable Conservation Action Western Governors Association Wildlife Corridor Initiative Decision Support Systems Doing the Things We know that Work 56 Feds giving $1 million for wildlife research The five year project will study the movement of animals across the Trans Canada Highway in the park By Larissa Barlow, Banff Crag & Canyon, April 13, 2010 58 A. Clevenger and M. Huijer Western Transportation Institute Sept. 2009 Banff National Park • Total monitored crossings from Nov 1996 to March 2009 • Data from 23 wildlife crossing structures A. Clevenger and M. Huijer Western Transportation Institute Sept. 2009 Protect Crossings- Crowsnest Pass, Alberta Strategic Private Land Conservation Think and Act at Large Scales Yellowstone to Yukon Yukon Flats Y2Y FAR NORTH National Wildlife Refuge Size Matters ! N U N A V U T A L A S K A Peel Watershed N O R T H W E S T T E R R I T O R I E S Y U K O N T E R R I T O R I E S Nahanni National Park Proposed Expansion Nahanni National Park Wood Buffalo National Park Muskwa Kechika A L B E R T A Climate Change dictates large scale conservation Kilometers B R I T I S H CO L U M B I A 63 0 and125 ecological250 connectivity to maximize resilience CommEn Space 64 Adirondack Park Nahanni Park Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Crown of the Continent Project Areas B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A A L B E R T A Waterton Lakes National Park Glacier National Park Flathead National M O N T A N A Forest Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex Lewis & Clark National Forest I D A H O Helena National Forest Kilometers 66 0 50 100 CommEn Space Crown of the Continent Project Areas B R I T I S H Crowsnest C O L U M B I A Pass Castle Wilderness Flathead A L B E R T A Watershed Waterton Lakes National Park Waterton Park Glacier Expansion National Park Flathead National M O N T A N A Forest Rocky Bob Mountain Marshall Front Swan Wilderness Valley Complex Lewis & Clark National Forest I D A H O Helena Blackfoot National Community Forest Project Kilometers 67 0 50 100 CommEn Space DOI Great Northern LCC Crown Pilot area ? 68 Freedom to Roam www.freedomtoroam.org Building resilience • Maintain well‐functioning ecosystems • Protect a representative array of ecosystems with redundancy • Remove or minimize existing stressors • Enhance connectivity (self‐adapt) • Conserve Processes like Migration • Protect refugia • Improve conservation outside PAs Inspire Social Will 72 Conservation across all landscapes Conservation Framework Deh Cho Conservation Lands Great Bear Rainforest Canadian Boreal Initiative Two Country One Forest Yellowstone to Yukon Continental Connectivity.