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The Arizona Water Quality Index: Trends and Exploratory Data Analysis

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The Arizona Water Quality Index: Trends and Exploratory Data Analysis The Arizona Water Quality Index: Trends and Exploratory Data Analysis Long-term Ambient Monitoring and Priority Impaired Reaches, 1989-2019 Arizona Department of Environmental Quality OFR 20-02 Credits This report represents the culmination of 31 years’ worth of dedicated and highly competent work by the staff of ADEQ’s Ambient Monitoring (formerly Surface Water Monitoring) and Total Maximum Daily Load Units, and the Arizona offices of the U.S. Geological Survey in collecting, storing, maintaining, analyzing, and evaluating water quality data from across the state of Arizona. Simply put, this report could not have been produced without the broad programmatic infrastructure that supports efforts like this one. The citizens of Arizona are fortunate to have such expertise on the job monitoring, reporting on, and working to protect the state’s water quality. Water Quality Samplers: Trey Dempsey, Jade Dickens, Susan Fitch, Catherine Gullo, Karen Hansen, Jennifer Hickman, Hans Huth, Ivan Lopez-Castrillo, Lee Johnson, Jason Jones, Jessica Latzko, Lin Lawson, Cody Maynard, Doug McCarty, Greg Olsen, Kyle Palmer, Steve Pawlowski, Juan Perez, Sam Rector, Amanda Ryan, Meghan Smart, Patrice Spindler, Jason Sutter, Ron Tiller, Roland Williams, John Woods, U.S. Geological Survey Water Quality Index/Stability Score Development: Doug McCarty, Danese Cameron, Jason Sutter, Ron Tiller R Expertise: Jason Jones Python/Pandas Coding: Doug McCarty Database Administration: Peter Bierly, Aiko Condon, Gregory Maro Surface Water Monitoring and Assessment Unit Manager: Richard Gay Surface Water Improvement Value Stream Manager: Krista Osterberg Author: Doug McCarty, Associate Hydrogeologist Contents 1.0 Introduction: Need, Sites and Indices................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Long-term Sites / Reaches (LTS) ..................................................................................................... 8 1.1.1 Purpose and History ................................................................................................................ 8 1.1.2 Rationales and Sampling Site Location and Frequency Criteria ........................................... 9 1.2 Priority-Impaired Reaches (PIR) ................................................................................................. 13 1.2.1 Purpose and History .............................................................................................................. 13 1.2.2 Rationales and Sampling Site Location and Frequency Criteria ......................................... 13 1.3 General Water Quality Indices ..................................................................................................... 18 1.3.1 GWQI Mathematical Basis ..................................................................................................... 18 1.3.2 GWQI Data ............................................................................................................................ 19 1.3.3 GWQI Standards / Thresholds ............................................................................................... 20 1.3.4 GWQI Method ...................................................................................................................... 22 1.4 Analyte Water Quality Indices ...................................................................................................... 22 1.4.1 AWQI Mathematical Basis ..................................................................................................... 23 1.4.2 AWQI Data, Standards/Thresholds, and Methods.................................................................. 23 2.0 General Characterization of Water Quality Indices ........................................................................... 25 2.1 Long-Term Sites/Reaches (LTS) .................................................................................................... 25 2.1.1 LTS Summary Statistics .......................................................................................................... 25 2.1.2 Discussion – LTS Annual General WQI Summary Statistics ..................................................... 33 2.2 Priority Impaired Reaches (PIR) .................................................................................................... 34 2.2.1 PIR Summary Statistics .......................................................................................................... 35 2.2.2 Discussion – PIR Analyte WQI Summary Statistics.................................................................. 43 3.0 Long-term Trends ............................................................................................................................ 45 3.1 Long-Term Sites/Reaches (LTS) .................................................................................................... 45 3.1.1 LTS Monotonic Trends .......................................................................................................... 45 3.1.2 LTS Kendall Tau Correlation Coefficients ............................................................................... 49 3.1.3 LTS Theil-Sen Median Slopes ................................................................................................. 51 3.1.4 LTS Changepoints and Step Trends ........................................................................................ 53 3.2 Priority Impaired Reaches (PIR) .................................................................................................... 56 3.2.1 PIR Monotonic Trends ........................................................................................................... 56 3.2.2 PIR Kendall Tau Correlation Coefficients ................................................................................ 59 1 3.2.3 PIR Theil-Sen Median Slopes ................................................................................................. 61 3.2.4 PIR Changepoints and Step Trends ........................................................................................ 64 3.3 Trend Summaries......................................................................................................................... 67 3.3.1 LTS/Reaches General Water Quality Index Trends ................................................................. 67 3.3.2 PIR Analyte Water Quality Index Trends ................................................................................ 67 3.3.3 Trend Summaries Discussion ................................................................................................. 67 4.0 Period of Record Indices .................................................................................................................. 72 4.1 Index Stability Score .................................................................................................................... 73 4.1.1 First term – Mathematical/statistical sufficiency ................................................................... 73 4.1.2 Second term – Natural variability .......................................................................................... 74 4.1.3 Third term – Data representativeness ................................................................................... 75 4.1.4 General Index ISS – Core parameter coefficient ..................................................................... 75 4.1.5 Lorenz coefficient ................................................................................................................. 76 4.2 Period of Record Indices and ISSs ................................................................................................. 77 4.3 Discussion - Period of Record WQIs ............................................................................................. 87 5.0 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 90 5.1 Summary of Key Findings for Arizona Water Quality, 1989-2019 .................................................. 90 5.1.1 Annual WQ Scores Series ...................................................................................................... 90 5.1.2 Trend Summaries .................................................................................................................. 91 5.1.3 Period of Record WQI Determinations .................................................................................. 92 5.1.4 Program Status Goal Summary .............................................................................................. 94 5.2 Final Thoughts: Development and Utility of AZ Water Quality Index and Stability Score ............... 98 6.0 References .................................................................................................................................... 100 Appendix A. Long-term Sites/Reaches Histograms ............................................................................. 101 Appendix B. Priority Impaired Reaches Histograms ............................................................................ 107 Appendix C. LTS Reaches Annual GWQIs ............................................................................................ 112 Appendix D. Priority Impaired Reaches Annual AWQIs ...................................................................... 114 2 Table of Tables Table 1. Fixed Station Network Long-term sites and reaches ................................................................
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