NATIONAL SECURITY PROSPECTIVE WITH EMPHASIS ON THE DEPARTMENTS OF CESAR, ATLANTICO AND MAGDALENA. Barranquilla, 20|03|2020
Prepared by: Beatriz Uribe Revised by: Carlos Aguilera Weir, CPP Political Situation
The country’s image has been negatively affected not only by the statements of the UN and the Red Cross International Committee regarding human rights violations in country, such attacks on human rights to defenders and indigenous peoples alleging an increase of arbitrary deprivations of life, associated with the persistence of high levels of violence, corruption and inequality; but also the replies by the President objecting such reports.
Disapproval President Iván Duque The President has not been 100% able to reverse the disapproval of his administration, heading 50% 64% 69% 70% 71% 55% 61% towards the end of the period with a poor execution and 0% uncertainty by the Executive 1 Branch. mar-19 abr-19 ago-19 oct-19 dic-19 feb-20
Congress of the Republic
The Government intended to disclose the Ordinary sessions have justice reform draft of been postponed due to the bill that would be the coronavirus outbreak, Priorities have introduced to negatively impacting shifted to review Congress. pending bills and reforms the measures that the current required to control administration has failed the impact of the to get through. Covid-19 pandemic.
The President declared a state of economic and social emergency:
Reconnection of water service to Increase of resources to the all families. Health System (15 billion pesos). Development of the implementation of the Full Stop VAT refund to the most Credit Reliefs for companies and Law (resources to order finances vulnerable families. individuals. and fully pay the debts of the health system). Modification of the tax calendar Elimination of VAT and duties on for taxpayers. medical equipment. Political Situation Social Protest
3% 1% 5% During President 6% Iván Duque’s administration, there 15% 41% have been 185 days of demonstrations and protests 29% nationwide.
Students Judicial Indigenous Teachers National Strike Conveyors Others
With the Covid-19 Pandemic, the levels of social protest are not decreasing, but rather transforming into pot-banging protests.
The first pot-banging protest during the Covid-19 crisis on March 18 was against the conflicting preventive measures issued by mayors and governors and those set out by the presidency. Political Situation Implementation of the Peace Agreement signed with the FARC
The full implementation of the agreement would take 10 to 15 years, estimated by Carlos Ruiz, UN representative in Colombia.
Key Figures
Number of ex combatants who are on the path of reincorporation into Number of ex-combatants living in the 24 Territorial 12.940 civilian life, according to the latest 2.969 survey of the Agency for Training and Reincorporation and Normalization Reincorporation Spaces ( in December 2019. (ETCR).
Number of dissident Number of social leaders and groups formed since the 14 human rights defenders who have demobilization of the been killed so far in 2020 In 2019 20 a 28 FARC, with 77 demobilized combatants were approximately 2 630 killed in total. members at arms and 1760 performing as support networks (militia)
5 Five (5) former FARC leaders are now dissidents Jesus Santrich, Ivan Marquez, Gentil Duarte, El Paisa and Romaña.
The President Iván Duque, said that one of the priorities of his Administration is to combat the FARC dissidents and other armed groups that are behind the murders of indigenous people, former FARC guerrillas, social leaders and human rights defenders.
The greatest setback in the implementation of the peace agreements with the FARC has been the high number of dissidents, although some persist in their struggle as guerrilla fighters. The greatest motivation is the profitability of illegal economies, such as drug trafficking and illegal mining. Political Situation
Judicial System According to the 2019 figures of the Attorney General’s Office, the congestion in the judicial system has had an impact on the resolution of different conflicts, generating impunity and repetition.
Reported Crimes 70% 1.477.989 Archived or unmanaged 13.000 murders on average during the last decade. Homicide 3.772 12.277 Clarified 100.000 Theft complaints 27.000 still 447.156 Syndicated or unpunished. convicted.
Corruption
Colombia ranks 96 out of 180 countries evaluated.
Existence of bribery in business operations.
Transparency Deviation of public resources in the executive branch. International reviews the following key aspects to measure Effective sanction in corruption cases. corruption in the public sector: Political corruption.
Abuse of power in the judicial, police and military sectors. Economic Situation
The greatest challenges for the economy in 2020 are beginning to emerge: • Exchange rate • Food prices (influenced by climate change) • The effects of the tax reform • Venezuelan migration • The impacts of social protests • The impacts of Covid-19. Main Economic Indicators:
CPI GDP CCI
3.3% 0,67% February 2020 -11,2% 2019 3,72% 2019 February 2020
Consumer confidence has been in Global conditions regarding negative territory for the past year. issues such as oil price volatility The prospects of an economic and the effects of Covid-19 may improvement for Colombians are lead to an economic growth pessimistic. slowdown in 2020 to levels of 3%, 0% or lower. However, consumption is growing, 5% in In terms of inflation, lower petrol December 2019, and will probably continue on prices are expected, and higher the rise as a result of the provisioning needs due to the expected mobility restrictions to prices for imported goods. control the pandemic. Economic Situation Unemployment
The unemployment rate in January was 13%, which represented an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to 2019 (12.8%).
Unemployment Informal Activity 10,5% 47,3% Annual Rate 2019 Unemployment Annual Rate 2019 Informal Activity 13% 47,7% January 2020 January 2020
CITIES WITH MOST UNEMPLOYMENT CITIES WITH LEAST UNEMPLOYMENT 20,0% 20,0% 10,0% 9,9% 19,0% 18,6% 9,0% 8,4% 18,0% 8,4% 17,6% 17,0% 8,0% 16,0% 7,0% QUIBDÓ IBAGUÉ CARTAGENA BARRANQUILLA FLORENCIA PEREIRA
CITIES WITH MOST INFORMAL CITIES WITH LEAST INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
75,0% 42,0% 41,8% 70,1% 40,4% 70,0% 40,0% 67,5% 38,9% 65,0% 38,0% 64,2% 60,0% 36,0% CÚCUTA MANIZALES SINCELEJO MEDELLÍN RIOHACHA BOGOTÁ
The international crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, which is expected to hinder the growth of the local and international economy, will further aggravate the country’s lack of capacity for creating new jobs and negatively affect the national unemployment rate. Economic Effect of Coronavirus
491.180 people infected 22.165 deaths 186 countries with confirmed cases (Figures as of March 26, 2020) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Uncertainty and fear. Health crisis:
• Stock market and exchange rate Decreasing international fluctuations. tourism. • Decreasing exports. • High variations in the value of raw Cancelled all air materials. transport. • Lack of supplies. • Aversion to relatively high-risk Temporary closure of financial assets. large manufacturing • Inflation rate increase. (companies. • Economic growth slowdown.
If the crisis lasts until the end of the year, the recovery would go beyond 2021. Social Situation
Poverty and extreme poverty have dropped, although not with the expected rate according to the figures, Colombia ranks seventh:
The distribution of poverty in Latin America World Bank
Who is poor in Colombia?
Monetary Poverty: Urban Rural Country: National areas: zones: %: Covering caloric needs to avoid falling into $283.239 $179.000 $257.433 27% malnutrition, having a roof and basic services:
Extreme Monetary Poverty:
Being unable to cover the acquisition of the basic food $122.800 $100.000 $117.605 7.2% needs for each person.
The structural causes for such levels of poverty and vulnerability include the weak or non existent presence of the State in large areas of the country, as well as the existence of gaps between rural and urban areas, generating inequality in the economic, social and cultural rights of the population. Social Situation
Healthcare Coverage
In 1995 the number of Colombians covered by the Life Expectancy country’s healthcare system barely reached 29.2%. In 2008 it According to the IDB, life had increased to 90.49% and in expectancy today is 77 2018 it reached 94.66% according years This indicator to figures from the DANE and the increased, on average, 7.4 Ministry of Health. years since 2002.
Higher Education
In 2007 the coverage of higher education was 31.6% and by 2016 the figure rose to 51.5% of students going from high school to the university So there was an improvement of 19 percentage points in a decade.
Migration More than 1,771,000 Economic Improvements Venezuelan citizens would be based in According to World Bank figures, Colombia. in 2008 the Colombian per capita Figures as of December 31, 2020 income was US 5.461,7 while at the end of 2019 it was US 6 526 The data would be higher if it were not for the effects of the exchange rate and low 58% of Venezuelans with productivity. irregular status in the country. Security Situation Drug trafficking
Drug crops in Colombia:
Cultivated hectares went from 208,000 to 212,000, while coca production reached 951 tons, which puts estimates for 2019 in record numbers after a slight drop reported last year.
Production in Colombia. ONDCP data. 250.000 1000 951 900 209.000 208.000 212.000 900 887 200.000 188.000 800 The Government
700 159.000 increased the 150.000 600 illicit crop 545 545 112.000 500 eradication goal 100.000 100.000 400 for this year, 83.000 78.000 80.500 324 300 setting it at 280 235 130,000 50.000 220 210 200 hectares. 100
0 0
Potencial de producción Hectáreas (Toneladas métricas)
ONDCP: Office of National Drug Control Policy - The White House.
President Iván Duque reported that “there are territories where drug cartels from other countries have hired snipers and buried anti-personnel mines to avoid eradication labor.”
The drug trafficking problem will continue to be the foundation of organized crime in the country. Security Situation Denomination of Criminal Groups
The Presidency and the National Security Council classify groups outside the law in the following categories:
OAG OAG-r OCG COCG
Organized Residual Organized Organized Common Organized Armed Groups Armed Groups Crime Groups Crime Group (GAO in Spanish) (GAO-r in Spanish) (GDO in (GDCO in Spanish) Spanish)
ELN FARC Dissidents Until 2019, 23 Until 2019, 2417 Clan del Golfo groups were bands were reported Los Pelusos reported in this in this category. Los Puntilleros category.
The groups that conduct their All groups that have a Capacity to threaten national security and criminal activity local impact, affecting seriously affect the rights of the population on a regional level cities and in different regions in the country. are classified in municipalities. this category.
Conformation Main Armed Groups Organized 2.780 2.622 ELN Men in arms Support networks 2.600 1.700 FARC Dissidents Men in arms Support networks 1.500 2.000 Clan del Golfo Men in arms Support networks
The increase of FARC dissidents and ELN members, which, according to military intelligence, as of November 2019 amounted to nearly nine thousand men, is still a concern If this rate continues, there will soon be 12 thousand FARC combatants who had previously demobilized. Security Situation Actions of Criminal Groups
Organized armed groups are currently not engaged in a direct war with the government, their interests are focused on controlling or participating in the productive chain of illegal economies (drug trafficking, extortion, illegal mining, contraband and smuggling). The armed struggle involves the dispute for territorial control over the most profitable regions, the most affected regions being Nariño, Catatumbo, Putumayo, Bajo Cauca, Antioquia, southern Córdoba, northern Cauca, Arauca and the Eastern Plains.
Geographical Distribution To gain control and/or participate in the most profitable regions, Bajo Cauca Catatumbo some groups engage in battles and Dissidences of Los Rastrojos, others create pacts to face the Front 18, Clan del common enemies. Caparrapos, Golfo, Clan del Golfo Dissidences y and ELN. EPL. Criminal Fabric Alliance Confrontation Non-aggression pact Frente Oliver Sinesterra
Nariño Arauca y Los Contadores, Llanos Frente Oliver Orientales Sinesterra, Frente FARC Ejército Alfonso Cano, Dissidences de Ejército Liberación Popular Guerrillas Unidas del and ELN. Nacional de Pacífico, La Gente Frente Liberación Guerrillas Alfonso del Orden y Clan del Unidas Cano del Golfo. Pacífico
Source: El Colombiano Security Situation Organized Armed Groups The National Liberation Army - ELN
Historically, this group has perpetrated actions against the country’s critical infrastructure for the country and foreign investment of international companies, justified in its political struggle.
Currently there are Following the suspension of about 2.780 men at talks with the government, arms and approximately They operate in small it has increased its control 2.622 are involved in structures that have over illegal economies and terrorism within support low visibility but high consolidated its influence in networks (militia). destabilizing capacity. Venezuela. They have presence in Venezuela, Brazil and 20 departments in the country, scattered across 206 municipalities and 4.645 towns. Relevant Actions in 2020
They deployed a 72-hour armed strike nationwide in February, which fundamentally impacted the departments of Arauca and Norte de Santander.
The criminal actions carried out were mostly attacks against the armed forces and road infrastructure.
They were able to carry out at least 27 separate operations, including attacks on civilians and the military, blockades to cut off public transport and installing They have influence in 7 of the 10 explosives. municipalities with more coca crops in the country. Security Situation Residual Organized Armed Groups FARC Dissidents
These are FARC fronts that refused to demobilize –i.e., get to the specific areas, hand over their weapons and make the transition to legal life as stipulated in the agreement.
Currently there are about They are still engaged in illegal activities, such as 2.600 men at arms and drug trafficking and illegal mining causing risks of approximately 1.700 members kidnapping, extortion, subversive actions and in support networks (militia). armed confrontations.
They are present in 17 departments, 114 Largest perpetrators of the murders municipalities and 4,060 paths. of former FARC combatants.
Murder of ex-combatants FARC 80 70 60 77 50 65 40 30 20 32 10 0 1
2017 2018 2019
In 22 countries they were declared "terrorist groups." Security Situation Organized Armed Groups
Gulf Clan
Narco paramilitary organization, formerly known as Clan Úsuga Los Urabeños Bloque Héroes de Castaño and Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (They control much of the country’s drug output, dozens of illegal gold mines and extortions in cities and urban areas).
There are about 1.500 men at arms and about 2 000 supporters in 10 departments, with a special presence in Cordoba and Antioquia.
Los Pelusos Los Puntilleros
Correspond to It corresponds dissidents of to ERPAC the Libardo paramilitary Mora Front of group the EPL. dissidents.
The group The group has about has about 260 armed 50 armed men. men.
Drug trafficking is their source of finance, The EPL has been at war with the ELN in the their main activities being the transformation, Catatumbo region since 2018 and is internal sale and control of a segment of the supposedly deeply involved in drug exit route to Venezuela. They are also trafficking to Venezuela. engaged in the distribution and control the sale and retail of drugs in the municipalities where they have influence. Security Situation
The risks that arise from this scenario are the following:
Area Risks Likelihood The active group of the - Kidnapping ELN is currently Nationwide - Subversive actions responsible for this type (focused on the - Terrorist attacks Medium of events; however, they Country’s Critical - Extortion, threats to do not have national Infrastructure) citizens, intimidation capacity nor action for relevance.
The criminal and common - Robbery, Muggings Big cities crime groups are the main - Extortion, threats to High (coca-free areas) culprits and are the citizens, intimidation largest in the country.
Municipalities and Populations The areas disputed by - Population (areas with weak armed groups engaged in confinement. institutions, drug trafficking generate - Forced displacement. High presence of illegal constant clashes in areas - Homicide. markets and low of interest for cultivation - Subversive actions. institutional and distribution. capacity) Additional factors to consider :
One of the main problems is the poor The largest problems come presence of the State throughout the from illegal economies. country. Lack of presence of authorities and public Illegal crops, illegal mining, extortion forces in populations and regions of high and smuggling. social complexity.
Armed Forces.
Poor infrastructure, limited budget in relation to security conditions, reduced number of active personnel. The false positives events can still be present and demotivation of upper rank members within the armed forces as well as few acts of corruption. Effects of the Security Situation
“The increase in armed actions indicates that the promises of peace have not materialized in the most vulnerable regions, which have lacked an overall consolidation of the State’s presence and where the arrival of migrants involves new challenges.” CICR
Confinement in 2019 Massive displacements*
Fuente: CIRC Retos humanitarios 2020 balance en Colombia. There are still dynamics stemming from violence, which generate high social impacts.
Overcrowding in Colombian Since 2002 until today, aprox. 14,200 prisons exceeds 53%. children and adolescents have been Overpopulation consists of recruited. 42.800 people. It is estimated that the FARC had 3.000. And the ELN had 1.000.
In 2019 there were 36 massacres, the highest number since 2014. In 2019 victims of anti-personnel mines The main perpetrators would be the increased by 59% vs. last year. ‘Clan del Golfo’, the ELN and the A total of 352 victims, including 19 ‘Caparrapos’, which dispute the minors. 42 of them died. control of illicit economies.
The international organizations that analyze the country’s situation are concerned about the social unrest and the murder of social leaders. Local Context The Caribbean Region
They generate clashes over disputed territory in places used for cultivation, transport, storage or logistics centers for illegal economic activities.
Cesar Magdalena Atlántico
Criminal Activity: • Strategic cocaine trafficking corridor to Venezuela. • Contraband Criminal Activity: Criminal Activity: • Arms trafficking • Drug trafficking exit routes • Drug trafficking exit routes • Micro-trafficking • Micro-trafficking Active Groups: • Crimes against public order • Crimes against public order • FARC Dissidences: Front 41, Front 33 Active Groups: Active Groups: • ELN – Northern War Front: • FARC Dissidences – Front 19 • OAG - Clan del Golfo Structures from “6 de diciembre”, • ELN • OCG - Los Costeños Luciano Ariza and Gustavo • Los Pachencas • ELN – Frente de Guerra Palmesano. • Clan del Golfo Urbano • ELN – Northeast War Front: • Common Crime • Common Crime Structures Camilo Torres and Mixta Libardo. • Clan del Golfo Local Context
Operation Department: Cesar Atlántico The ELN has been strengthening in the In Barranquilla and Soledad, urban displacement and border areas of La Guajira and Cesar, due to homicides are caused by confrontations between micro- the presence of the “Camilo Torres” front, trafficking gangs. which has been trying to open drug Extortion, although not a new crime in the region, has trafficking corridors. The most affected area increased and has been strongly affecting salesmen. of the department is south of Cesar.
Kidnappings in the Caribbean Region:
The most affected department in the region is Cesar, which has a first case already. The highest percentage corresponds to stockbreeders and areas in the south of the department, given its proximity to Catatumbo in Norte de Santander.
2018 2019 2020 Magdalena 1. Zona Bananera, Administradora, 23/ag/18 2. Sierra Nevada, caficultor, 1/nov/18 3. Santa Ana, estudiante, 17/jun/19
Atlántico 1. Barranquilla, empresario, 31/ag/18 2. Ponedera, ganadero, 7/ab/19
Bolívar 1. San Juan de Nepomuceno, ganaderos, 14/mar/19 2. Montecristo, Líder agro minera, 1/jun/19
Sucre 1. Entre San Benito y Caimito, ganadero, 25/may/19
Guajira 1. Uribia, abogado, 30/mar/19 2. San Juan del Cesar, Docente, 17/jun/19 3. Maicao, Comerciante, 13/jul/19 4. Maicao, Estudiante, 22/ag/19 5. Fonseca, Ganadero, 17/sep/19
Cesar 1. Río de Oro, abogado, 30/nov/18 2. Chimichagua, adulta mayor, 10/ene/19 3. Camperucho, ganadero, 10/ene/19 4. Pailitas, ganadero, 28/may/19 5. Pelaya, agricultor, 1/jun/19 6. Río de Oro, ganadero, 13/jul/19 7. El Paso, ganadero, 28/nov/2019 8. Aguachica, ganadero, 4/dic/2019 9. San Martín, ganadero, 28/feb/2020 Government Actions
Government projects are being highly affected by four factors:
• Low investment. • Low prices of raw materials. • Migration. • Covid-19.
During the Health Crisis:
Ban on gatherings of more than 50 people. Suspension Classes suspended in public of cultural and sporting schools and universities. events.
Financing sources: $14.8 Ten (10) state initiatives, billion pesos destined to including credit reliefs, serve the contingency payment deferrals, among period. others. Preventive isolation of the adult population over 70. mandatory preventive Suspension of incoming isolation at the national international flights for 30 level. days.
2020 Plans:
• Boosting the construction sector through low income housing. • Reactivating 70% of fourth generation (4G) projects. • Developing projects in the regions for more than COP 3 billion of taxes on current programs, which is expected to have an impact on the economies within several territories.
• Reduce at least 130,000 hectares of illicit crops. Crime Statistics National Data Citizen security crimes have become the most frequent, while high-impact crimes evidence a downward trend, although they continue to occur. The common denominator at the national level is mugging, a crime that is constantly increasing.
Crime at the national level - 2020
30000 28744
25000
20000 19337
15000
10000 84898419
5000 3447 3444 3119 3011 2753 2546 2422 2233 1034 942 712 765 14 20 11 3 0 Muggings Personal Robbery to Threats to Robbery to Motorcycle Homicide Car Theft Terrorist Bank Injuries residences citizens local Theft attacks Robbery commerce
January February Crime Statistics Department of Cesar 2020 (January – February)
Mugging decreased by 36% in February with respect to January; however, it is still the most common crime in the region.
The five terrorist attacks were carried out during the national armed strike of the ELN, which focused locally on the south of the department.
Criminal Behavior Cesar – 2020
400 373
350
300
240 250
200 161
150 114 106 104 89 100 78 80 75 62
50 37 21 20 11 10 0 0 0 5 0 Muggings Personal Threats to Motorcycle Robbery to Robbery to Homicide Car Theft Bank Terrorist Injuries citizens Theft residences local Robbery attacks commerce
January February Crime Statistics Department of Cesar Behavior of the last twelve months
There were considerable reductions in all forms of theft, but threats and personal injury increased. Terrorist incidents were associated with the armed strike carried out by the ELN guerrilla group.
2019 2020 Variation Crime Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Feb vs Jan
Muggings 270 337 374 323 326 306 351 319 322 351 353 373 240 -36% Car Theft 23 15 19 11 20 18 17 16 11 11 9 11 10 -9% Motorcycle Theft 81 106 84 101 89 86 94 100 118 110 48 89 78 -12% Robbery to residences 71 63 59 74 53 68 92 93 68 79 46 80 62 -23% Robbery to local commerce 85 101 107 104 101 129 106 74 110 102 61 75 37 -51% Bank Robbery 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Threats to citizens 132 203 169 149 147 145 133 114 99 96 47 104 114 10% Homicide 14 21 17 21 25 21 15 20 16 21 21 21 20 -5% Terrorist attacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 500% Personal Injuries 157 182 153 163 145 125 104 97 101 84 71 106 161 52%
Muggings Car Theft Motorcycle Theft Robbery to residences Robbery to local commerce Bank Robbery Threats to citizens Homicide Terrorist attacks Personal Injuries 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Crime Statistics Department of Cesar Area of influence municipalities Comparative January vs February / 2020
La Jagua de Ibírico
13 14 11 12 10 7 8 6 5 6 4 3 3 4 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Muggings Motorcycle Robbery to Threats to Robbery to Homicide Personal Terrorist Bank Car Theft Theft residences citizens local Injuries attacks Robbery commerce
January February
El Paso 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Motorcycle Threats to Muggings Homicide Robbery to Personal Car Theft Terrorist Bank Robbery to Theft citizens residences Injuries attacks Robbery local commerce
January February
Becerril 4 4 3,5 3 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 1 1 1 1 0,5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Threats to Muggings Car Theft Motorcycle Terrorist Homicide Personal Bank Robbery to Robbery to citizens Theft attacks Injuries Robbery local residences commerce
January February Crime Statistics Department of Magdalena 2020 (January – February)
The most common crimes in the department are mugging, which decreased by 33% and personal injuries, which increased by 9%.
The terrorist attack was committed during the national armed strike of the ELN, which had local impact only with this event.
Criminal Behavior Magdalena – 2020
400 382
350
300
256 250
197 200 181
150
100 71 63 61 57 50 54 43 50 30 31 32
3 5 0 0 0 1 0 Muggings Personal Threats to Robbery to Robbery to Motorcycle Homicide Car Theft Bank Terrorist Injuries citizens local residences Theft Robbery attacks commerce
January February Crime Statistics Department of Magdalena Behavior of the last twelve months
The department is mostly affected by mugging; however, car theft, homicide, and personal injury are all on the rise.
2019 2020 Variation Crime Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Feb vs Jan
Muggings 364 306 350 314 316 337 356 380 320 299 351 387 382 256 -33% Car Theft 3 6 7 3 6 2 6 10 2 4 5 4 3 5 67% Motorcycle Theft 68 88 60 65 94 52 68 86 58 47 66 46 43 30 -30% Robbery to residences 82 56 84 90 87 72 91 79 68 52 58 44 57 54 -5% Robbery to local commerce 75 85 95 85 92 71 87 101 76 67 73 60 63 50 -21% Bank Robbery 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0% Threats to citizens 150 176 110 101 111 82 114 92 73 75 56 28 71 61 -14% Homicide 16 21 23 20 26 14 23 17 23 21 17 38 31 32 3% Terrorist attacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 100% Personal Injuries 229 181 221 198 232 232 167 185 181 169 154 183 181 197 9%
Muggings Car Theft Motorcycle Theft Robbery to residences Robbery to local commerce Bank Robbery Threats to citizens Homicide Terrorist attacks Personal Injuries 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Crime Statistics Department of Magdalena Area of influence municipalities Comparative January vs February / 2020
Santa Marta
3500 3173
3000
2500
2000 1458 1500
1000 693 652 504 520 347 500 220 126 57 76 72 34 27 40 4 1 0 0 0 0 Muggings Personal Threats to Robbery to Robbery to Motorcycle Homicide Car Theft Bank Terrorist Injuries citizens local residences Theft Robbery attacks commerce
January February
Ciénaga
386 400
350
300
250 229
200 152 150
86 82 100 68 52 40 50 29 14 10 15 8 7 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 Muggings Personal Motorcycle Robbery to Robbery to Threats to Homicide Car Theft Bank Terrorist Injuries Theft residences local citizens Robbery attacks commerce
January February Crime Statistics Department of Atlántico 2020 (January – February)
The most common crimes in the department are mugging, which decreased by 24%, and personal injuries which increased by 13%.
Of all the robbery modalities, car theft was the only one with an increasing trend for the second month of the year.
Criminal Behavior Atlántico – 2020
1600 1459
1400
1200 1114
1000
800
600
417 370 400
200 139 138 110 122 101 79 76 68 47 35 25 27 0 0 0 0 0 Muggings Personal Motorcycle Robbery to Threats to Robbery to Homicide Car Theft Bank Terrorist Injuries Theft local citizens residences Robbery attacks commerce
January February Crime Statistics Department of Atlántico Behavior of the last twelve months
Over the last year, criminal behavior in the department has been stable, i.e., the monthly figures have mostly remained within the same proportions.
2019 2020 Variation Crime Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Feb vs Jan
Muggings 1159 1284 1461 1052 1205 1118 1110 1187 1189 1211 1248 1289 1459 1114 -24% Car Theft 30 22 24 29 31 27 20 23 27 17 27 27 25 27 8% Motorcycle Theft 126 152 149 131 154 129 141 128 123 115 124 112 139 110 -21% Robbery to residences 149 122 112 122 101 144 119 128 111 112 96 92 101 68 -33% Robbery to local commerce 252 252 215 234 221 248 211 181 174 152 167 102 138 79 -43% Bank Robbery 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 4 1 0 0 0 0% Threats to citizens 129 169 197 150 173 116 129 142 136 128 97 52 122 76 -38% Homicide 40 49 39 40 37 51 36 46 43 35 46 49 47 35 -26% Terrorist attacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Personal Injuries 418 463 629 503 536 469 465 432 452 431 365 281 370 417 13%
Muggings Car Theft Motorcycle Theft Robbery to residences Robbery to local commerce Bank Robbery Threats to citizens Homicide Terrorist attacks Personal Injuries 300
250
200
150
100
50
0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Crime Statistics Department of Atlántico Area of influence municipalities Comparative January vs February / 2020
Barranquilla
1200 1072 1000 874 800 600 286 400 224 96 75 64 200 52 48 62 59 42 24 23 13 18 0 0 0 0 0 Muggings Personal Robbery to Threats to Motorcycle Robbery to Homicide Car Theft Terrorist Bank Injuries local citizens Theft residences attacks Robbery commerce
January February
Puerto Colombia
38 40 35 30 25 20 15 15 8 9 10 2 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Muggings Terrorist Robbery to Threats to Car Theft Homicide Robbery to Personal Bank Motorcycle attacks residences citizens local Injuries Robbery Theft commerce
January February
Soledad
277 300 250 200 130 150 78 61 100 46 25 19 15 50 7 7 13 7 11 9 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 Muggings Personal Motorcycle Homicide Robbery to Threats to Robbery to Car Theft Terrorist Bank Injuries Theft residences citizens local attacks Robbery commerce
January February Prospective
Political, legislative, economic, social and security activities have focused on the growing health crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In 2020 Latin America and the Caribbean are at risk of • Ongoing social protests, suffering greater social crises and political instability, as a evidenced in the short term by result of the strong tensions generated by social inequalities, the so-called “pot-banging which will be increased in the short term by the impact of protests”. Covid-19.
• Country growth below Optimistic government estimates of the country’s growth, the expected. benefits of electronic invoicing and the strengthening of the • Increase in unemployment levels. DIAN are receiving a hard blow from the international • Cutbacks on government uncertainty and the impact of Covid-19. programs to meet the fiscal target.
Redirection of legislative reforms and political projects, towards the health crisis caused by Covid-19. • Low levels of economic, social and security developments in Armed forces in barracks addressing the health and social the country. issues caused by Covid-19.
• The risks of riots, robberies Uncertainty and collective panic due to the economic, and looting of commercial labor and social impacts of what the Covid-19 can establishments and generate conditions or a sense of shortages among the companies are increasing. population.
The Government has almost $15 billion pesos from the • Moderate ability to ensure the State’s reserves, and can use up to $48 billion pesos if economic measures the situation warrants it, i.e., if controlling the Covid-19 implemented by the outbreak becomes more complicated and generates Government. much stronger economic impacts.
• Reduction in the number of The restrictions implemented to contain the expansion of criminal activity and public the pandemic, together with the security forces’ order events. confinement to barracks generate greater citizen control. • Reduction in pollution levels. Prospective
The Venezuelan migration crisis will get worse It is estimated • Humanitarian support is required and increasing levels that Venezuelans seeking refuge in nearby countries will go of xenophobia among the from 4 5 million today to 6.5 million in 2020. population.
Caribbean Region These issues prevail in the Region, although the armed groups’ actions will likely be diminished due to the Covid-19 control measures implemented nationally and on the borders.
An increase in the levels of social protest is expected for the Caribbean Region, given the dissatisfaction from the inefficient provision of basic services, mainly the electric power service, which will increase in the upcoming rainy season.
The protests could be fueled by the dissatisfaction with government measures and the impact on local economies caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Armed confrontations for the control of routes and areas of illicit crops between the armed groups that operate in the region, mainly in the department of Magdalena.
Kidnappings, subversive actions, extortion and/or confrontation between legal or illegal groups near the mining operation, due to the reorganization of the ELN and the incursion of FARC dissident groups in the departments of Cesar and Magdalena.
Activities by groups engaged in drug trafficking, like drug trafficking, micro traffic, extortion, homicides and/or confrontation between legal or illegal groups in the departments of Magdalena and Atlántico. Summary
Short- Medium- Long- Type of Risk Events term term term High national disapproval of the current government’s management. Political Risks Government without legislative support Moderate Moderate Moderate (“no payoff” policy) / Absence of a “Political Flag” Rural. Kidnapping, extortion and terrorist attacks, focused primarily on the country’s Low Low Moderate critical infrastructure, authorities and Security Risks foreign investment. Urban. Criminal and terrorist acts. Crimes Low Low Moderate of citizen security.
Social inequality. Social Risks High High High High levels of social protest. Low consumer confidence. Fiscal deficit. Economic Risks High High High Decreased investment. Unemployment. - Covid-19 pandemic. - Active drug trafficking industry. - Number of active groups of organized crime and criminal gangs. - Strengthening and internationalization of traditional armed groups. Main causes - High immigration to our country. - Strong opposition to the current government. - High corruption levels. - Social inequality (differences in access to healthcare, employment and basic services). Regions
- Paramillo Knot Region, which includes southern Córdoba, Bajo Cauca, Norte and Northeast Antioqueño. - The Catatumbo Region and part of the metropolitan area of Cúcuta. - The Pacific Nariñense and Caucano. Catastrophic Risk Level - The south of Meta, Guaviare and part of Caquetá. - The Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. - Arauca border area. - Department of Chocó.