NATIONAL SECURITY PROSPECTIVE WITH EMPHASIS ON THE DEPARTMENTS OF CESAR, ATLANTICO AND MAGDALENA. Barranquilla, 20|03|2020 Prepared by: Beatriz Uribe Revised by: Carlos Aguilera Weir, CPP Political Situation The country’s image has been negatively affected not only by the statements of the UN and the Red Cross International Committee regarding human rights violations in country, such attacks on human rights to defenders and indigenous peoples alleging an increase of arbitrary deprivations of life, associated with the persistence of high levels of violence, corruption and inequality; but also the replies by the President objecting such reports. Disapproval President Iván Duque The President has not been 100% able to reverse the disapproval of his administration, heading 50% 64% 69% 70% 71% 55% 61% towards the end of the period with a poor execution and 0% uncertainty by the Executive 1 Branch. mar-19 abr-19 ago-19 oct-19 dic-19 feb-20 Congress of the Republic The Government intended to disclose the Ordinary sessions have justice reform draft of been postponed due to the bill that would be the coronavirus outbreak, Priorities have introduced to negatively impacting shifted to review Congress. pending bills and reforms the measures that the current required to control administration has failed the impact of the to get through. Covid-19 pandemic. The President declared a state of economic and social emergency: Reconnection of water service to Increase of resources to the all families. Health System (15 billion pesos). Development of the implementation of the Full Stop VAT refund to the most Credit Reliefs for companies and Law (resources to order finances vulnerable families. individuals. and fully pay the debts of the health system). Modification of the tax calendar Elimination of VAT and duties on for taxpayers. medical equipment. Political Situation Social Protest 3% 1% 5% During President 6% Iván Duque’s administration, there 15% 41% have been 185 days of demonstrations and protests 29% nationwide. Students Judicial Indigenous Teachers National Strike Conveyors Others With the Covid-19 Pandemic, the levels of social protest are not decreasing, but rather transforming into pot-banging protests. The first pot-banging protest during the Covid-19 crisis on March 18 was against the conflicting preventive measures issued by mayors and governors and those set out by the presidency. Political Situation Implementation of the Peace Agreement signed with the FARC The full implementation of the agreement would take 10 to 15 years, estimated by Carlos Ruiz, UN representative in Colombia. Key Figures Number of ex combatants who are on the path of reincorporation into Number of ex-combatants living in the 24 Territorial 12.940 civilian life, according to the latest 2.969 survey of the Agency for Training and Reincorporation and Normalization Reincorporation Spaces ( in December 2019. (ETCR). Number of dissident Number of social leaders and groups formed since the 14 human rights defenders who have demobilization of the been killed so far in 2020 In 2019 20 a 28 FARC, with 77 demobilized combatants were approximately 2 630 killed in total. members at arms and 1760 performing as support networks (militia) 5 Five (5) former FARC leaders are now dissidents Jesus Santrich, Ivan Marquez, Gentil Duarte, El Paisa and Romaña. The President Iván Duque, said that one of the priorities of his Administration is to combat the FARC dissidents and other armed groups that are behind the murders of indigenous people, former FARC guerrillas, social leaders and human rights defenders. The greatest setback in the implementation of the peace agreements with the FARC has been the high number of dissidents, although some persist in their struggle as guerrilla fighters. The greatest motivation is the profitability of illegal economies, such as drug trafficking and illegal mining. Political Situation Judicial System According to the 2019 figures of the Attorney General’s Office, the congestion in the judicial system has had an impact on the resolution of different conflicts, generating impunity and repetition. Reported Crimes 70% 1.477.989 Archived or unmanaged 13.000 murders on average during the last decade. Homicide 3.772 12.277 Clarified 100.000 Theft complaints 27.000 still 447.156 Syndicated or unpunished. convicted. Corruption Colombia ranks 96 out of 180 countries evaluated. Existence of bribery in business operations. Transparency Deviation of public resources in the executive branch. International reviews the following key aspects to measure Effective sanction in corruption cases. corruption in the public sector: Political corruption. Abuse of power in the judicial, police and military sectors. Economic Situation The greatest challenges for the economy in 2020 are beginning to emerge: • Exchange rate • Food prices (influenced by climate change) • The effects of the tax reform • Venezuelan migration • The impacts of social protests • The impacts of Covid-19. Main Economic Indicators: CPI GDP CCI 3.3% 0,67% February 2020 -11,2% 2019 3,72% 2019 February 2020 Consumer confidence has been in Global conditions regarding negative territory for the past year. issues such as oil price volatility The prospects of an economic and the effects of Covid-19 may improvement for Colombians are lead to an economic growth pessimistic. slowdown in 2020 to levels of 3%, 0% or lower. However, consumption is growing, 5% in In terms of inflation, lower petrol December 2019, and will probably continue on prices are expected, and higher the rise as a result of the provisioning needs due to the expected mobility restrictions to prices for imported goods. control the pandemic. Economic Situation Unemployment The unemployment rate in January was 13%, which represented an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to 2019 (12.8%). Unemployment Informal Activity 10,5% 47,3% Annual Rate 2019 Unemployment Annual Rate 2019 Informal Activity 13% 47,7% January 2020 January 2020 CITIES WITH MOST UNEMPLOYMENT CITIES WITH LEAST UNEMPLOYMENT 20,0% 20,0% 10,0% 9,9% 19,0% 18,6% 9,0% 8,4% 18,0% 8,4% 17,6% 17,0% 8,0% 16,0% 7,0% QUIBDÓ IBAGUÉ CARTAGENA BARRANQUILLA FLORENCIA PEREIRA CITIES WITH MOST INFORMAL CITIES WITH LEAST INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 75,0% 42,0% 41,8% 70,1% 40,4% 70,0% 40,0% 67,5% 38,9% 65,0% 38,0% 64,2% 60,0% 36,0% CÚCUTA MANIZALES SINCELEJO MEDELLÍN RIOHACHA BOGOTÁ The international crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, which is expected to hinder the growth of the local and international economy, will further aggravate the country’s lack of capacity for creating new jobs and negatively affect the national unemployment rate. Economic Effect of Coronavirus 491.180 people infected 22.165 deaths 186 countries with confirmed cases (Figures as of March 26, 2020) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Uncertainty and fear. Health crisis: • Stock market and exchange rate Decreasing international fluctuations. tourism. • Decreasing exports. • High variations in the value of raw Cancelled all air materials. transport. • Lack of supplies. • Aversion to relatively high-risk Temporary closure of financial assets. large manufacturing • Inflation rate increase. (companies. • Economic growth slowdown. If the crisis lasts until the end of the year, the recovery would go beyond 2021. Social Situation Poverty and extreme poverty have dropped, although not with the expected rate according to the figures, Colombia ranks seventh: The distribution of poverty in Latin America World Bank Who is poor in Colombia? Monetary Poverty: Urban Rural Country: National areas: zones: %: Covering caloric needs to avoid falling into $283.239 $179.000 $257.433 27% malnutrition, having a roof and basic services: Extreme Monetary Poverty: Being unable to cover the acquisition of the basic food $122.800 $100.000 $117.605 7.2% needs for each person. The structural causes for such levels of poverty and vulnerability include the weak or non existent presence of the State in large areas of the country, as well as the existence of gaps between rural and urban areas, generating inequality in the economic, social and cultural rights of the population. Social Situation Healthcare Coverage In 1995 the number of Colombians covered by the Life Expectancy country’s healthcare system barely reached 29.2%. In 2008 it According to the IDB, life had increased to 90.49% and in expectancy today is 77 2018 it reached 94.66% according years This indicator to figures from the DANE and the increased, on average, 7.4 Ministry of Health. years since 2002. Higher Education In 2007 the coverage of higher education was 31.6% and by 2016 the figure rose to 51.5% of students going from high school to the university So there was an improvement of 19 percentage points in a decade. Migration More than 1,771,000 Economic Improvements Venezuelan citizens would be based in According to World Bank figures, Colombia. in 2008 the Colombian per capita Figures as of December 31, 2020 income was US 5.461,7 while at the end of 2019 it was US 6 526 The data would be higher if it were not for the effects of the exchange rate and low 58% of Venezuelans with productivity. irregular status in the country. Security Situation Drug trafficking Drug crops in Colombia: Cultivated hectares went from 208,000 to 212,000, while coca production reached 951 tons, which puts estimates for 2019 in record numbers after a slight drop reported last year. Production in Colombia. ONDCP data. 250.000 1000 951 900 209.000 208.000 212.000 900 887 200.000 188.000 800 The Government 700 159.000 increased the 150.000 600 illicit crop 545 545 112.000 500 eradication goal 100.000 100.000 400 for this year, 83.000 78.000 80.500 324 300 setting it at 280 235 130,000 50.000 220 210 200 hectares.