APPENDIX 2 2014 SCHOOL PLACE PLANNING REPORT CONTENTS

This report uses the 2013 GLA Camden Development Population Projections (March 2014), 2014 GLA School Roll Projections (June 2014) and actual roll data from the January 2014 and May 2014 DfE School Census.

Secondary Main Report 1. Introduction Page 2 2. Net capacity/surplus and numbers on roll Page 3 3. Birth rates Page 5 4. Planned housing development Page 6 5. GLA Population projections Page 11 6. GLA school roll projections Page 16 7. Cross-border movement Page 20 8. Independent schools Page 22 9. Neighbouring LAs known pressures and plans Page 23 10. Conclusions Page 25

Appendices

A. Camden’s Development Trajectory (growth areas) Page 27 B_1. Flowchart of GLA Population Projections Cycle Page 28 B_2. GLA Flow Diagram of GLA School Roll Projection Service Page 29 C. MAP: Secondary Schools by Camden Wards Page 30

D. Appendix D - Secondary School Places Planning Report tables are supplied as an attachment and should be read in conjunction with this report, these include; Table D1 - School Capacity Collection 2014 Summary (provisional) Table D2_1 - Percentage of Secondary Places Filled by Year Group: Jan 2013 Table D2_2 - Percentage of Secondary Places Filled by Year Group: Jan 2014 Table D3 - 2012/13-2014/15 Year 7 Secondary Offer Summary - as at Offer Day (R1) Table D4_1 to D4_4 - Additional Child Yield from Identified Sites and Windfall combined 2014 including Table D5 - 2013 Camden Population Projections Age 11/Age 11-15 by ward Table D6 - 2012-2014 GLA School Roll Projections (SRP) Table D7 - Resident Population of Camden Secondary School's: Jan 2014 Table D8 - Camden residents attending Camden and Other Borough (OB) provision January 2012 to January 2014

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SECONDARY PLACES PLANNING: Report July 2014

1.0 Introduction

1.1 This report provides an update on Camden’s secondary places planning, taking account of the latest population projections (2013 GLA Camden Development March 2014), GLA school roll projections (SRP - 2014) and housing development data (Camden Culture & Environment - May 2014). The report should be used in conjunction with Appendix D - Secondary School Places Planning Report that provides detailed tables underpinning the analysis set out in the report and the corresponding tables are referenced throughout.

1.2 The authority, in its role as commissioner of new school places, has a statutory duty to ensure that there are sufficient school places within the borough. However, the changing face of school provision with the introduction of free schools and existing schools being able to convert to academy status, coupled with changes in education legislation through the Academies Act 2010 has made the arrangements for starting new schools more complex. Local authorities are now not able to put forward proposals for new community schools until any potential free school/academy route is exhausted.

1.3 At this time, Camden has one Academy – UCL that opened in 2012/13 academic year as part of Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme and two known interested free school groups in Camden i.e. South of Euston Road (SER) secondary free school group (4FE secondary school) but has subsequently had their application rejected by DfE.

1.4 In May 2014, the NW6 new school campaign submitted a free school application and the website suggests this is for a combined 2FE primary and 6FE secondary school in the West Hampstead NW6 area.

1.5 Effective planning needs to analyse various strands of information when anticipating current and future needs including;

- The current capacity of schools, any surplus places and/or immediate pressures - Projected future demand including planned housing development trajectory - Any local variance within the borough - The impact of any proposed changes in other boroughs

1.6 All of the above strands of information are covered in detail below. Inevitably data changes year on year and this report gives the current known position as at June 2014.

1.7 This appendix report is organised to review each of the strands of information used to inform places planning and are reviewed in conjunction with each other in order to inform places planning.

1.8 It should be noted that whilst housing development data from Camden underpins the population projections from the GLA; the LA also uses its own calculations of the number of additional children arising from the planned housing development (child yield) and analyses alongside the SRP to ensure all potential additional children are taken into account.

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2.0 Net capacity, surplus and numbers on roll

2.1 School admission numbers are easily understood and can be easily broken down into year groups, but the DfE requires the use of Net Capacity (NC) figures for many planning purposes, and measures surplus places against these. The NC covers the whole secondary age range from Year 7 to sixth form and takes account of the space within a school and how rooms are utilised to arrive at a capacity figure for a school.

2.2 Table 1 below shows the overall Camden analysis of the School Capacity/Surplus Places returns to the DfE* from 2010-2013 and a provisional estimate for 2014. A range of between 5% and 10% is considered by DfE to be an acceptable margin for meeting a reasonable level of parental preference. The information shows that there has been an increase in surplus capacity in Camden secondary schools; with surplus increasing from 5.4% in 2010 to 11.6% in 2014, without the inclusion of UCL Academy (which it is not appropriate to include because it is filling gradually from year 7 admissions). The increasing surplus is due largely to lower rolls at Regent High and Maria Fidelis schools in recent years, although the year 7 rolls at these schools did increase in 2014. The apparent high surplus capacity at UCL is as a consequence of the school only admitting from year 7 in successive years and post 16 pupils.

Table 1 - Actual Surplus Trend 2010 – 2014 Actual Surplus % Numbers 2014 (provisional) *Actual Actual Net Camden Total 2014 Pupils Surplus 2010 2011 2012 2013 Capacity (P) NOR Places 2014 (May) (May)

Secondary without UCL 5.4 6.2 9.2 9.5 11.6 9253 10472 1219 Secondary with UCL 15.9 15.8 9786 11622 1836 *Include the actual number on roll (NOR) from May 2014 Provisional School Census (all pupils) - updated 4/6/2014 NB. The apparent capacity at UCL Academy is due to the schools still populating from Year7 starting in 12/13 (including sixth form). Consequently, this distorts the overall LA capacity figures. It should also be noted that capacity figures for schools can change to accommodate new additions/re-organising of space.

2.3 Appendix D: (Table D1) provides a provisional 2014 school level break down of the above information and indicates that Maria Fidelis and Regent High are again the schools (excluding UCL) with the highest current overall surplus 36% and 34% respectively compared to 31% for both schools last year. The surplus at Acland Burghley has also increased from 10% in 2013 to a provisional figure of 15% for 2014. The increase in surplus at the two schools in the south of the borough is attributable to the lower numbers of pupils coming through to Year 7 in the last four years but both schools had higher year 7 rolls for 2013/14. The high rates of vacancies is not attributable to lower population numbers south of the borough based on projected population estimates (see Section 5).

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2.4 Year 7 roll trends for all schools in Table 2 below show that some schools continue to be full or very close to Admission Number (AN) capacity, namely Camden School for Girls, La Sainte Union, UCL Academy and William Ellis. Other schools have a relatively small numbers of vacancies i.e. Acland Burghley, Hampstead and Parliament Hill; but all three schools have more vacancies in 13/14 than the year before. Haverstock also has relatively low vacancies and fewer vacancies than in 12/13. Maria Fidelis and Regent High continue to have the most vacancies but both schools have seen fewer vacancies in 2013/14 cf. the previous year and current Year 7 secondary applications and offer information for 2014/15 suggests Year 7 rolls in these schools will increase again.

Table 2 – Number of Year 7 Pupils on Roll Admission NC Year 7 - Numbers on Roll (January) School No 2013/14 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Acland Burghley 182 179 180 182 180 167 Camden School for Girls 112 114 112 112 112 112 Hampstead 210 210 212 210 207 199 Haverstock 210 196 208 211 189 199 La Sainte Union 180 180 185 180 183 180 Maria Fidelis 150 110 83 99 83 94 Parliament Hill 180 183 178 180 178 167 Regent High 180 91 105 127 96 115 UCL Academy 180 178 180 William Ellis 125 129 122 125 122 122 Camden Total 1709 1392 1385 1426 1528 1535 Source: DfE January Schools’ Census

2.5 Appendix D: Table D2_1 and Table D2_2 show roll information by year group for January 2013 and January 2014 respectively; alongside the percentage of the year group that has been filled (based on year admission number). As indicated in Table 2 above; there has been more capacity in recent years due to the lower number of pupils coming through from Year 7 generally in the south of the borough and now the percentage of places filled for each year group is c. 90%.

2.6 The application data for 2014/15 year 7 admissions round at ‘offer date’ (March 2014) shows that there was a higher number of applications from Camden residents in 2014 than in 2013 (1,587 cf. 1,506 +81); but this is lower than the projected number of 11 year olds January 2015 (2,108). This could suggest that one-quarter of Camden resident 11 year olds were not pursuing a place in a state- funded school; intending to go private/independent or moving outside London. There were eight unplaced year 7 children at ‘offer’ date in March 2014 and 1,709 offers were made to Camden schools i.e. all available places (cf. 1,655 last year). Appendix D: Table D3 shows the detail.

2.7 However, offer data will change substantially between initial offer date and the September start date as offers are accepted/rejected etc but application/offer data is indicative of overall demand. As at June 12th 2014, there were 145 Year 7 vacancies in Camden schools for 2014/15; predominantly at four schools Acland Burghley (54), Regent High (39), Maria Fidelis (24) and Haverstock (18).

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3.0 Birth Rates

3.1 Registered births are analysed and discussed as they feed into the Camden population and school roll projections (SRP), but it is useful to look at trends separately. Births are an important element of change, but there is not always a clear and observable correspondence between registered births and subsequent demand for school places; particularly at secondary. In Camden there is substantial projected housing development trajectory (Section 4) and also net migration patterns change over time; these may distort the births to demand for places scenario.

Table 3 – registered births corresponding to Reception / Year 7 rolls ONS Mid Year ONS Mid Year Actual Births Actual Births Actual Births Actual Births Registered Registered to Reception to Reception to Year 7 to Year 7 (cont) Births Camden Births Camden (cont) (cont)

91/92_ Jan 97 Jan-04 2,428 02/03_jan08 Jan-15 2,889 92/93 Jan 98 Jan-05 2,415 03/04_jan09 Jan-16 2,983 93/94_jan99 Jan-06 2,476 04/05_jan10 Jan-17 3,031 94/95_Jan 00 Jan-07 2,551 05/06_jan11 Jan-18 2,949 95/95_jan01 Jan-08 2,512 06/07_jan12 Jan-19 3,109 96/97_jan02 Jan-09 2,615 07/08_jan13 Jan-20 3,073 97/98_jan03 Jan-10 2,696 08/09_jan14 Jan-21 3,059 98/99_jan04 Jan-11 2,662 09/10_jan15 Jan-22 3,107 99/00_jan05 Jan-12 2,704 10/11_jan16 Jan-23 3,054 00/01_jan06 Jan-13 2,736 11/12_jan17 Jan-24 3,084 01/02_jan07 Jan-14 2,875 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid-year registered births to 2011/12 Note that the 2011/12 figure has been revised by ONS

3.2 Birth rates in Camden have shown an upward trend since the early 1990s (Table 3 above) and past admissions rounds to reception have tended to reflect birth trends which in turn have led to increased pressure on primary school places in Camden schools. Capacity in Camden primary schools could not meet demand for reception places in 2009/10 and required the establishment of one bulge class; whilst in 2012/13, when the actual birth trend dipped slightly on the year before, the demand for reception places was such that two bulge classes were added for September 2012. There was a slight fall in mid-year births in 2013/14 when one bulge class was added, whereas in 2014/15 the mid-year births increased and two bulge classes were established for September 2014. Bulge places have been established in the north west of the borough where there has been particular pressure on primary school places.

3.3 The higher numbers projected in primary schools might be expected to roll through to Camden secondary schools eventually, with the LA ambition to see less mobility out of Camden for secondary education particularly south of the borough and for the borough to educate more Camden children in Camden secondary schools (currently, Camden residents account for c. 62% of Camden secondary school roll).

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4.0 Planned Housing Development

4.1 Camden’s planned development data is provided by Camden planning officers to the GLA on an annual basis for use in computing population projections, which in turn feed in to the school roll projections. GLA projections use the number of additional units/homes and the projected timeline provided by Camden and household formation rates from the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) to distribute the projected number of children by age between individual wards. The GLA estimates do not take account of the dwelling mix or unit size; whilst Camden’s estimated child yield does not differentiate by age but does differentiate by dwelling mix and tenure e.g. larger social housing having higher ratios of children compared to private smaller housing but not by age.

4.2 It was a requirement of the secondary BSF bid to undertake a separate and different approach to estimating child yield from development sites and this is now part of Camden’s practice in relation to both primary and secondary places planning. The approach takes the ‘best estimate’ (at the time) of the proposed number of dwellings, and their size (e.g. 1/2/3 bed) and type (e.g. private/social housing). This enables us to see where in the borough development with the highest level of estimated child yield is concentrated.

4.3 The Council’s emerging Local Development Framework and Core Strategy looks at future development in the borough. Residential growth is projected across the borough, and also with a concentration in specifically defined growth areas, such as King’s Cross, Euston and the West Hampstead Interchange. Attached in Appendix A is a map that shows the geographical divisions made in the recent ‘Camden Infrastructure Study: Social Infrastructure Needs (SSIN)’ prepared by the URS Corporation for the Council in October 2009. *The broad purpose of the SSIN is to identify needs over the lifespan of the Local Development Framework (to 2025/6) The emerging LDF identifies significant population growth over the period, which will result in increased demands being placed on Camden’s infrastructure in a range of areas.

4.4 An analysis of the planned housing trajectory data up until 2025/26 as used in the ‘Camden Infrastructure Study: Social Infrastructure Needs’ URS October 2009 looked at cumulative growth in terms of additional forms of entry (FE) based on estimates of child yield i.e. the number of children likely to emerge from particular types/sizes of housing. High and ‘recent’ (i.e. based on recently observed pattern) estimates are given i.e. 90% and 69% estimates respectively for numbers coming into Camden schools.

4.5 This information has once again been updated to reflect planned housing trajectory (as at May 2014). The number of children estimated to emerge from housing developments (child yield rates) is based on local estimates from the ‘2008 Camden Survey of New Homes’.

4.6 Although estimates based on this methodology are different from GLA projections, they both tend to indicate a general upward trend and potentially growing demand for school places. Data on estimated additional child yield by ward and planning area is given in Appendix D Table D4_1.

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4.7 The estimated additional numbers of children projected to emerge from the latest housing development data overall are lower in the long term than was projected last year (2013) and is reflective of changes to planning applications/housing mix and the phasing of developments. PA3 is most affected with a projected -98 less additional children in the long term and is largely accounted for by a change in dwelling mix assumptions of the Hawley Wharf site with considerably less social housing than was suggested last year (29 additional children cf. 104 last year). PA2 now has 67 fewer children in the longer term and is largely due to the fact that Waxham and Ludham was originally scheduled to generate 48 additional children but is on hold at present and PA1 has 39 fewer children than expected last year due to changes in the Abbey housing developments.

4.8 Short Term (next 5 years: 2013/14 - 2017/18) – Figure 1 above It is anticipated that an additional 2,434 children would be in housing developments between 2013/14 and 2017/18 (cf. +27 more than estimated last year). This would cumulatively equate to c. 4 FE (forms of entry) in any particular year group by 2017/18; rising by a further 0.5 FE the following year. Over one third of this additional child yield (1.2-1.6FE) would emerge from PA4 housing development i.e. Kings Cross; whilst PA3 and PA5 housing development would account for approximately one fifth (0.7-0.9FE) and development in PAs 1 and 2 would each account for approximately 0.5 additional FE.

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4.9 Medium Term (next 10 years: 2017/18 - 2022/23) – Figure 1 above Further to the additional 2,434 children emerging from housing development until 2017/18 i.e. c. 4 FE per year group; an anticipated further 1,077 children (1.5-2 FE) would emerge in the following 5 years until 2022/23 with PA4 once again accounting for the largest increase (0.6-0.7 FE).

4.10 Longer Term (Beyond 2022/23 – Figure 1 above) Housing development is sustained well into the next decade; when a further 1,469 children (2-3 FE) are estimated to come from housing development by the end of 28/29. In total, by 2028/29, an additional 7-9 FE per year group are estimated to yield from housing development.

4.11 Intensive Housing Development Areas – Update May 2014 4.11.1 King’s Cross Development (PA4) a) Mount Pleasant development (aka Phoenix Place) is another large development in PA4; with half the development site in Islington. As at June 2013, planning applications had just been submitted for 345 units on the Camden side of the development; with 120 children likely to derive from it between 2015/16 and 2017/18 i.e. 4 additional children per year group 0.25 FE. The latest update suggests that the application is still under assessment and the GLA will make the final decision; expected in July 2014 and whilst there are discussions around increasing the proportion of affordable housing the outcome is not yet clear but could potentially increase the number of additional children. These figures are not too dissimilar to those factored in the May 2014 Housing Development data above (estimated 138 children from 290 units). The planned number of units, size and tenure are similar on the Islington side of the development. Appendix D: Table D4_2 provides a breakdown of the planned housing units by size and tenure (as at May 13 application and still under assessment).

4.11.2 West Hampstead (PA1) The London Plan expects a minimum of 800 homes and 100 jobs to be delivered in the West Hampstead growth area, and the Core Strategy anticipates development to exceed these targets and be around 1000 homes. 585 units will provide student accommodation and will not impact on school place planning whilst the remainder are summarised below.

a) Three of the four major developments in the growth area (187-189 West End Lane – 198 units, 156 West End Lane – 93 units and Liddell Road – 120 units are due for completion between 2015/16 and 16/17; whilst the larger O2 car park site – 315 units has been factored in for completion 2020/21-22/23 the phasing and dwelling mix is still to be determined.

b) Consequently, the developments above are estimated to yield 158 children by 2016/17 (c. 0.3 FE per year group) and a further 150 children between 2020/21 and 22/23 from the O2 car park site (c. a further 0.3 FE per year group). Appendix D: Table D4_3 provides a breakdown of the planned housing units by size and tenure.

4.11.3 Gospel Oak (PA2) a) There continues to be consultations/ discussions taking place in housing with residents, councillors and officers looking at various development and potential regeneration options within the Gospel Oak area. With the exception of Bacton Low Rise (BLR), many of the plans for other potential developments are at a very

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early stage; with detail about the composition of the sites and likely phasing of the housing projects in the Gospel Oak under review.

The developments we have information about are:

 Bacton Low Rise (BLR)  Gospel Oak infill sites at Kiln Place and Barrington and Lamble  Maitland Park/Grafton Terrace (Haverstock)  Lismore Circus which include Waxham/Ludham

Bacton Low Rise (BLR) b) Officers anticipate 293 new homes (192 additional new homes and the rest replacement homes) across three phases; with the earliest possibility of development being spring 2015 for phase 1 and spring 2016 for phase 2; but this would be dependent on cabinet meeting approval and planning permissions. Phases 1 and 2 would accommodate about three-quarters of those already resident on the Bacton site. c) Appendix D: Table D4_4 shows that the latest suggested composition factored in to the housing development data; has fewer additional units in light of some of the social housing factored in as additional last time; now being planned as replacement. Consequently, BLR is expected to bring an estimated 93 additional children across all ages cf. 135 children last year. This would equate to approximately 6 additional children per year group (0.2 FE).

Gospel Oak Infill Sites d) In December 2013, the Cabinet approved plans to develop 22 new Council homes on small sites at Kiln Place and Barrington & Lamble estates that are expected to be completed in 16/17 that are estimated to add no more than 6 children across all age groups.

Maitland Park/Grafton Terrace e) In December 2013 Cabinet approved plans to develop up to 37 new homes at Grafton Terrace and submit a planning application for 83 more on the site of Aspen House and Maitland Park. An additional 32 homes expected to be completed in 2017/18 (c. 23 additional children across all year groups) have been factored in to the 2014 information.

Wendling/Waxham and Ludham Estates f) Architects have just been appointed to work with Wendling residents to develop the options for estate improvements/redevelopment and July 2014 it should be clear whether residents favour medium level intervention or complete estate redevelopment. g) The Council is still considering the implementation of a major repairs programme for Waxham and Ludham estates in the next year, so any redevelopment is unlikely to start for another 10 years. Consequently, the 104 additional units factored in last year from Waxham and Ludham development between 2017/18 and 19/20 are no longer included (48 additional children across all age groups).

Lismore Circus i) Consistent with plans last year, Lismore Circus development is expected to generate 100 additional units between 16/17 and 17/18, yielding 48 additional

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children (3 per year group) and has been included in the housing development data for this report.

4.11.4 Euston Area – High Speed 2 (HS2); beyond 2026 (PA4) a) The Euston Area Plan sets a capacity of 3,800 new homes in the Euston area, and the maximum amount of affordable housing would be sought as part of this. Details about size, tenure etc are still to be finalised. Consequently, applying the standard GLA ratio figure of 0.66 children per additional unit would suggest in the region of 2,000-3,000 children i.e. 4-5 additional forms of entry (FE). However, the size and tenure of the additional units will have an impact on these estimates as Camden’s own child yield ratios range from 0.04 for 1 bed private flats to 1.53 for a 3 bed social/intermediate and 2.6 for 4 bed housing.

b) To accommodate these additional children, there would be a need for additional primary school provision, which could be delivered through the delivery of new schools (possibly delivered as part of mixed use development) and/or the expansion of existing schools where feasible. In addition, there may also be a need for additional secondary school provision and financial contributions could therefore be required from new development towards enhancements to secondary school provision within or outside of the Euston area.

c) The Euston Area Plan notes the demand for these school places, and includes the provision of a new 2FE school on the North Euston Cutting site along with noting a further 1-2FE of school provision in the Regent’s Park Estate area, therefore requiring contributions from development towards this provision. The EAP also notes the potential to expand the new Edith Neville School by 1FE if necessary through contributions to meet any future school place demands.

d) Provision to mitigate the impacts of HS2 on existing social infrastructure would also need to be made and would include the relocation of Maria Fidelis on a consolidated site at Phoenix Road and surrounds due to the impacts of HS2 on the future viability of the North Gower Street site for educational use.

4.11.5 In addition to the major housing developments planned and outlined above; there are a number of development options under consideration by housing. However, information relating to many of these sites is limited due to the early stages of planning and the assumptions made e.g. possible housing density/composition. The estimated additional number projected to emerge from these sites has been factored in but underlying assumptions are more likely to change for these types of development and consequently so too will the impact.

4.11.6 Inevitably projected housing development data change as plans and timescales are modified and consequently housing development data is kept under review in order to monitor any likely impact on demand for school places.

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5.0 GLA Population Projections

5.1 Population projections (PP) show considerable variation over time as the data that contributes to them changes and the models used to make the projections are refined e.g. births, fertility rates, housing developments and migration patterns. Whilst projections need to be carefully analysed and understood, it would be unwise to consider them in isolation from other data sources in looking at longer term planning solutions. A flow chart that shows the population projection cycle is included at Appendix B.

5.2 Camden, in common with most other London LAs, commissions the GLA to produce school roll projections (SRP). The SRP draw on the more general demographic analyses of the GLA as mentioned above. A diagram that shows the process, data that feed in, links and outputs is attached at Appendix C and explained in more detail in section 6 below.

5.3 Population projections are produced annually by the GLA and the school roll projections (SRP) that are based on them are calculated after the January School Census each year. This report is based on 2013 round population projections (March 2014 for Camden and other boroughs) and corresponding SRP produced in May 2014.

5.4 Last year the 2012 GLA PP took account of the 2011 national census as a baseline for the first time and this year the 2013 GLA model has been refined further to take account of the latest available fertility information, births and estimated migration information. This round of GLA PP also sees the introduction of scenarios modelling the impact of the recession regarding domestic migration i.e. higher than usual retention in London as there are better job opportunities/prospects and uses mid-2017 as a point when conditions affecting domestic migration might return to pre-recession norms.

5.5 However, the GLA believes that the likely rise in the number of secondary age children is not being adequately reflected in the post-2011 national census generated projections and this could explain the ‘spiky’ profile of projected 11 year olds in Figure 2 below. The GLA says that it will be confident in projected secondary aged numbers when projections incorporate the ONS migration data from the census; availability of which has already been delayed several times.

5.6 Growth in the 11 year old population projections is similar for both 2012 and 2013 PP in the short term (2014-2019) at c. 6%; whilst 2011 PP suggested short term growth in region of 8% but from a lower starting point. In the mid-term i.e. 2014 to 2024; there is projected to be minimal growth based on latest 2013 GLA PP i.e. 2% which is comparable to 2012 PP (3%) but somewhat lower than 2011 PP (14%). However, the GLA caveat to the accuracy of 2012 and 2013 PP should be noted.

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5.7 As discussed previously, 2013 PP have seen the incorporation of revised information from the 2011 national census; including the updated fertility rate (TFR) and mean child bearing age (MAC) information. Whilst Camden fertility rate based on 2011 census is higher than that in 2001 (1.43 cf. 1.36) and the fact that women are older now when they have children (33 in 2011 cf 31 in 2001) could indicate potential growth in the older age groups in the longer term i.e. post 2024 It should be noted that Camden continues to have one of the lowest fertility rates (if not the lowest) in London and based on actual live births in 2012 the fertility rate in Camden was the lowest in London (1.35 in Camden cf. 1.65 Greater London).

5.8 The 2013 round population projections for secondary age pupils (11-15 year olds) shows growth between 2014 to 2019 of 4% 2013 PP against 3% 2012 PP but the caveats to GLA confidence in these projections should be noted. The revised fertility rate has led to an upward trend over the course of the 2013 PP that is projected to continue post 2024 whereas the 2012 PP peaked before falling away. Appendix D: Table D5 shows 2013 GLA PP Camden projected numbers of 11, 11- 15 year olds by ward.

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5.9 In section 2 above, the relatively low numbers of children attending schools south of the borough was highlighted i.e. Regent High and Maria Fidelis (both Planning Area 4 - PA4). Figure 3 below shows the 2013 PP for 11 year olds south of the borough i.e. Regents Park/St Pancras Somers Town wards (PA4 – North of Euston Road) and Holborn & Covent Garden, Bloomsbury and King’s Cross wards (PA 5 – South of Euston Road). Taken together neither would suggest falling rolls are indicative of a decline in the number of Year 7 pupils south of the borough and admissions analysis has shown the relatively high proportions of children South of Euston Road pursuing options other than Camden schools for secondary education; namely other borough schools and estimated proportions going independent/private.

5.10 South of Euston Road (PA5) numbers peak in 2015 before falling away and levelling out/gently rising to the end of the period to 2034 that is consistent with projections last year; whilst the anticipated increase in the number of 11 year olds in planning area 4 (PA4) which is in keeping with the large scale King’s Cross development is shown and is set to continue beyond 2024 and peaking at c. 350.

Figure 3 – 2013 GLA Population Projections (11 year olds): South of the borough

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5.11 2013 round population projections: Camden and neighbouring boroughs 5.11.1 Tables 4 and 5 below give 2013 round GLA population projections for 11 year olds, and 11 to 15 year olds for Camden and neighbouring boroughs. The 2013 Camden population projections have been agreed for use within Camden, and the ‘2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) population projections from the GLA are used as a comparison in relation to our neighbours. Camden does not use the SHLAA data as the housing development data under- pinning them is not as up to date, but is the best comparative LA data we have access to. NB. SHLAA information for other boroughs does not incorporate the updated fertility rates used in the latest GLA PP for Camden.

5.11.2 The 2013 PP for 11 year olds are broadly similar to those produced last year and indicative of similar growth over the next ten years and twenty years for most boroughs; with Barnet still forecast to see the greatest growth over the next twenty years of around 1,000 additional resident 11 year olds; followed by Islington (+400) and Westminster (+200). Brent is forecast to see relatively high growth in the next ten years before declining from mid 20’s.

Note: projections are rounded to 100 as required for publication, +/- change is worked on detailed figures then rounded to the nearest 10. 2013 round population projections are shown here as they are used as a basis for calculation of the 2014 SRP for Camden and other London boroughs (SHLAA are used as the best available figures for other boroughs. The SHLAA model is not the same as that used for Camden.)

Table 4 – 2013 GLA Population Projections by borough for 11 year olds Age Group = 11 year olds Year All Barnet Brent Camden City Haringey Islington Westminster 2014 4,500 3,500 2,000 0 2,900 1,800 1,800 16,500 2015 4,500 3,600 2,100 0 2,900 1,800 1,800 16,800 2016 4,700 3,500 2,000 0 2,800 1,800 1,800 16,800 2017 4,900 3,700 2,000 0 2,900 1,900 1,900 17,500 2018 5,000 3,800 2,000 0 2,800 2,000 1,900 17,700 2019 5,200 3,900 2,100 0 2,900 2,100 2,000 18,200 2020 5,200 4,000 2,000 0 2,900 2,100 2,000 18,200 2021 5,300 4,000 2,100 0 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,600 2022 5,400 4,100 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,900 2023 5,500 4,100 2,100 0 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,900 2024 5,600 4,200 2,000 0 3,000 2,200 2,000 19,000 2025 5,600 4,200 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 19,200 2026 5,600 4,100 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 19,100 2027 5,600 4,100 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 19,100 2028 5,600 4,000 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 19,000 2029 5,500 3,900 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,800 2030 5,500 3,900 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,700 2031 5,400 3,800 2,100 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,600 2032 5,400 3,800 2,200 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,500 2033 5,300 3,700 2,200 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,400 2034 5,300 3,700 2,200 100 3,000 2,200 2,000 18,300 +/- change 2014-24 1,100 700 0 0 100 400 200 2,500 2014-34 800 200 200 100 100 400 200 1,800

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5.11.3 Among 11-15 age range; Barnet, Brent, Islington and Westminster projected to increase the most; although anticipated growth in both Brent and Islington is lower than projected last year. Camden is forecast to see an increase in the number of 11-15 year olds of approximately 400 in the next ten years; as is Haringey which contradicts the forecast last year that projected a decline in numbers. Section 8 looks at the current plans other boroughs have for school places in the future.

Table 5 – 2013 GLA Population Projections by borough for 11 - 15 year olds Age Group = 11-15 year olds Year All Barnet Brent Camden City Haringey Islington Westminster 2014 21,700 17,300 9,600 200 14,200 8,900 8,700 80,600 2015 21,900 17,500 9,900 200 14,000 8,800 8,700 81,100 2016 22,200 17,400 9,900 200 13,900 8,800 8,800 81,100 2017 22,900 17,600 9,900 200 13,900 8,900 8,900 82,300 2018 23,600 18,000 9,900 200 13,900 9,200 9,100 83,900 2019 24,300 18,400 10,000 200 14,000 9,400 9,300 85,600 2020 24,900 18,800 9,900 200 14,100 9,700 9,500 87,100 2021 25,500 19,200 10,000 200 14,300 10,100 9,700 88,900 2022 26,100 19,600 10,100 200 14,400 10,300 9,800 90,400 2023 26,600 19,800 10,100 200 14,600 10,400 9,800 91,600 2024 27,000 20,100 10,000 200 14,600 10,600 9,900 92,400 2025 27,400 20,300 10,100 200 14,700 10,700 9,900 93,300 2026 27,600 20,300 10,100 200 14,700 10,700 9,900 93,600 2027 27,700 20,200 10,100 200 14,700 10,800 9,800 93,600 2028 27,700 20,100 10,200 200 14,700 10,800 9,800 93,500 2029 27,600 19,800 10,300 200 14,700 10,800 9,800 93,300 2030 27,500 19,600 10,400 200 14,700 10,800 9,700 92,900 2031 27,200 19,200 10,400 200 14,600 10,800 9,700 92,300 2032 27,000 18,900 10,500 200 14,600 10,800 9,700 91,700 2033 26,700 18,700 10,500 200 14,500 10,800 9,700 91,100 2034 26,500 18,400 10,500 200 14,500 10,800 9,600 90,600 +/- change 2014-24 5,300 2,800 400 0 400 1,700 1,200 11,800 2014-34 4,800 1,100 900 0 300 1,900 900 10,000

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6.0 2014 GLA School Roll Projections (SRP)

6.1 An analysis of SRP received in 2012, 2013 and 2014 is given below against the admission number capacity in each year (AN). The increase in capacity from 2012/13, with the introduction of the UCL academy (180 places a year), has been factored in and the additional 60 places per year capacity at Regent High School is currently under review and is shown as a dashed line (admission number) to indicate the effect on capacity it would have from 2015/16.

6.2 As noted earlier, projections are not precise measures and places planning looks at the combined evidence from different sources of information in drawing conclusions. National government, to date, has required evidence from actual data and trends to confirm projected need where statements of case or bids are being made.

6.3 Whilst the authority has a statutory duty to ensure that there are sufficient school places across the borough as a whole, it cannot provide for unlimited choice that may compromise the viability of other schools and would not be a good use of public money, particularly in the current climate. Parents, for a range of reasons, choose to send their children to different schools, some in Camden, some in other boroughs and some to private schools. Whilst parental preference is difficult to model; it is an important piece of information to consider alongside other existing information in order to be more indicative of actual places needed.

6.4 It should also be noted that when planning secondary school places, a borough- wide perspective is taken to ensure sufficient places exist across the borough as a whole. This is in keeping with other local authorities, as secondary schools tend to be much larger than primary schools; there are fewer of them and thus they tend to draw children from wider geographical areas.

6.5 The GLA SRP are based on the underlying Camden resident population projections, and school roll figures from the January School Census each year and, prior to the 2013 SRP, there were three variants of SRP provided by the GLA:-

R = roll replacement which looks at trend data and the number of pupils in one year moving to the next.

C = catchment, which looks at trends in the ratio of pupils in maintained schools in the borough and the number of pupils of the same age in the local population. In Camden this ratio tends to give much higher projected numbers than replacement.

CR = which uses C and R in combination i.e. weighted averages that prioritise replacement method in the short-term and catchment method in the longer term to better reflect impact of housing development.

6.6 From 2013, an updated GLA SRP model was devised that attempts to make the best use of the strengths of both the catchment and replacement techniques and to better account for the cohort effects in the rolls. The basic steps of this methodology are as follows:

Step 1: Produce projections based on roll replacement model. This is similar to the Replacement model referred to above. Whilst the roll replacement

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ratios tend to be close to 100% between many age groups unless there have been significant changes in either provision or development; there are some transitions that commonly differ from the 100% assumption i.e. Year 6 to Year 7 and post 16 Step 2: Using rolls projected from the Replacement method generate catchment ratios by dividing the rolls by the equivalent population from a zero development projection i.e. from population estimates with no additional housing development factored in. Step 3: Apply these catchment ratios to a standard set of population projections (that include housing development data). The result is the final set of roll projections.

6.7 Consequently, this different SRP methodology, together with revised population estimates incorporating 2011 national census information, means 2013 and 2014 SRP are not directly comparable with previous SRP.

6.8 Due to the uncertainty surrounding post-2011 national census generated population projections for the secondary aged population in particular (mentioned in section 5.5); the GLA have used roll replacement ratios from Year 6 to Year 7 to project Year 7 SRP (rather than underlying 11 year old population projection- catchment that would ideally be used). This was done to ensure that there is no under-projecting of rolls coming through in the secondary ages and would also mean the higher Reception numbers coming through would be incorporated in future Year 7 SRP.

6.9 Whilst the SRP model uses school roll information to calculate how children will roll through to the next year e.g. Year 6 to Year 7, Year 7 to Year 8 etc (cohort survival ratios) and also calculate school rolls as proportions of the underlying population; it should be remembered that at secondary age, Camden is a net importer of pupils i.e. Camden imports more children from other boroughs than it exports. This potentially means that there could be more places available for Camden residents than indicated as SRP do not yet distinguish between Camden/non Camden residents on roll.

6.10 All three years of SRP (2012, 2013 and 2014) show a rising trend within Camden over the planning period. The 2014 SRP are marginally higher than 2013 SRP but below 2012 SRP until the second half of the reporting period when 2014 SRP are increasingly higher than 2013 and 2012 SRP towards the end of the reporting period (2023/24).

6.11 Supporting SRP tables are shown in Appendix D: Table D6 and show 2012, 2013 and 2014 SRP but as already noted 2014 SRP uses a different methodology and ‘catchment’ ratios for Year 7; whilst 2013 and 2014 SRP use replacement ratios for Year 7 and the revised SRP model so are not directly comparable. Furthermore, whilst the detailed figures as supplied by GLA are given in tables for transparency, they do not have, and should not be interpreted as having, this level of precision.

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6.12 Figures 4 and 5 below show the school roll projections received for 2014, 2013 and 2012 for age 11 (Year 7), and ages 11-15 (Years 7-11) respectively.

Figure 4: 2012-2014 GLA SRP for age 11 (Year 7)

6.13 2014 Year 7 SRP are marginally higher than 2013 SRP but lower than 2012 SRP in the medium term and, consistent with 2013 SRP, are forecast to remain below borough capacity until 2019/20 when the borough may need to utilise the additional 2FE capacity that is available at Regent High. 2014 SRP suggest the possibility of a bulge class in 2020/21 over and above the capacity available (including Regent High) but then projected numbers fall to be more consistent with borough capacity. As discussed previously; this is largely attributable to the use of Year 6 to Year 7 replacement ratios (and additional numbers from housing development) as opposed to catchment ratios to ensure there is no under-estimating of the increase in projected numbers coming through in the older age groups. Consequently, the high reception numbers in 2013 and 2014 have resulted in this peaking in 2020 and 2021 but may not adequately reflect the secondary school parental preferences of Camden residents i.e. 2014 SRP for 2014/15 are fairly consistent with applications received from Camden residents (1598 cf 1587 applications) but there are currently 145 Year 7 vacancies in Camden secondary schools for Sept 2014.

6.14 2014 SRP for all secondary aged pupils i.e. Year 7 – Year 11 increase year on year to the end of the reporting period, and whilst higher than 2013 SRP are lower than 2012 SRP; this is because they better reflect the lower than expected actual Year 7 rolls in recent years. Despite this, current capacity across the Year 7 – Year 11 age band is expected to be sufficient until 2021/22 i.e. when Year 7 projections peak but even here the shortfall is just 3 FE across all year groups with potential to utilise the additional 2FE capacity at Regent High. Whilst 2014 SRP suggest a slight shortfall at the end of the reporting period (less than 2FE across all 5 year groups); officers believe there will be sufficient capacity because of the trends of parental preference in recent years.

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Figure 5: 2012-2014 GLA SRP for age 11 to 15 (Yr 7 – Yr 11)

6.15 SRP do incorporate the housing development data provided by Camden to some extent but there is a possibility that estimates of additional children in SRP could be less than Camden’s own estimates in the longer term.

6.16 Consequently, whilst 2014 SRP suggest Year 7 will be close to capacity from 2019/20 (with potential bulge class in 2020/21) and the secondary age group more generally to be approaching capacity towards the end of the reporting period then housing development and the associated phasing needs to be monitored closely but based on current patterns of Year 6 to Year 7 transfer and the impact of housing development thus far on demand for school places; current capacity (potentially using the additional 2 FE capacity at Regent High from 2019/20) should be sufficient until the end of the reporting period bar the possibility of a single bulge class in 2020/21.

6.17 Beyond 2023/24, an additional 1,201 children are anticipated to come from housing development across the borough and roughly equates to c. 250 - 375 secondary aged pupils c. 2FE per year group with the large majority anticipated in PA4. However, it is not definitive as to whether additional capacity would be needed beyond 2023/24 as housing development plans change, schools in PA4 are currently under-subscribed and current parental preference patterns would suggest Camden has potential to take more Camden residents than it currently does.

6.18 GLA SRP should not be used in isolation when place planning. They should be used in conjunction with current trends, changes to housing development data and professional knowledge about the local context in order to ‘adjust’/‘moderate’ the GLA SRP to be more reflective of Camden context.

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7.0 Cross Border Movement

7.1 Residents in Camden maintained secondary schools 7.1.1 Table 6 below shows the number of Camden and non-Camden residents attending Camden secondary schools (Years 7 to 11) between January 2010 and 2014. The proportion of Camden/non Camden residents has remained fairly static over this period and in January 2014; 63% of the children on roll were Camden residents, a 1% increase on previous years. Proportions of Camden school rolls from each of the other boroughs have also remained fairly consistent over time. The largest import was from Islington with 1,049 pupils i.e. 14% of the secondary roll, 1% to 2% lower than previous years.

Table 6 – Camden secondary: Borough of pupils’ residence (Years 7 – 11) Secondary Year 7 to 11 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Borough of Residence No % No % No % No % No % Camden 4574 62 4488 62 4480 62 4534 62 4570 63 Islington 1187 16 1167 16 1131 16 1108 15 1049 14 Brent 450 6 456 6 464 6 499 7 520 7 Barnet 349 5 323 4 323 4 315 4 323 4 Haringey 231 3 234 3 225 3 247 3 249 3 Westminster 188 3 189 3 183 3 200 3 203 3 Hackney 193 3 196 3 182 3 160 2 172 2 Enfield 64 1 64 1 60 1 62 1 66 1 Waltham Forest 31 0 28 0 24 0 20 0 28 0 Tower Hamlets 8 0 10 0 11 0 16 0 21 0 K & C 37 0 38 1 39 1 21 0 19 0 H & F 32 0 27 0 27 0 21 0 14 0 Ealing 0 0 5 0 4 0 9 0 13 0 Southwark 12 0 9 0 10 0 5 0 10 0 Lambeth 12 0 14 0 12 0 9 0 9 0 Harrow 2 0 2 0 11 0 14 0 9 0 Other London Borough 37 0 24 0 26 0 25 0 27 0 Outside London 5 0 9 0 10 0 7 0 6 0 Total 7412 100 7283 100 7222 100 7272 100 7308 100 Source: January School Census, residents in Camden schools (UCL Academy included from 2013)

7.1.2 The location of Camden schools, of course has a bearing on patterns of imports. A school by school analysis is given for January 2014 in Appendix D: Table D7. This follows a trend that we would expect with schools close to borders attracting higher numbers of pupils from other boroughs as part of their roll, for example a school such as Hampstead has higher numbers of residents from nearby Brent (40%) and Barnet (21%); together representing over half the school roll (61%) and comparable to 2013.

7.1.3 It has been observed in recent years that the school rolls south of the borough i.e. Regent High and Maria Fidelis schools have declined due to parental choice as opposed to a declining population. Consequentially, parents opt for places in schools in neighbouring boroughs, in relatively large numbers, particularly Islington and Westminster. This is clearly demonstrated in Appendix D: Table D8 that shows

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a summary of known Camden residents in Camden schools by planning area. Only 33% of those Year 7 – 11 Camden residents from south of Euston Road (PA5), whose school destination, was known were attending a Camden secondary school; whilst a considerably higher proportion of PA4 residents were attending a Camden school (70%); with 43% of these attending Regent High or Maria Fidelis schools.

7.1.4 However, school roll numbers at both these schools increased in 2013/14 and are anticipated to increase further for 2014/15 (based on the latest 2014/15 year 7 admissions information). Rolls are expected to continue to improve with proactive measures/improvements in place e.g. extensive remodelling through BSF of Regent High will be completed in July 2014 and Maria Fidelis extended admission criteria to admit boys from September 2013 and the anticipated location of Maria Fidelis School onto a single site in Somers Town from September 2016.

7.2 Camden residents in other borough maintained secondary schools 7.2.1 Table 7 below shows a trend of Camden residents from 2010 to 2014 attending schools in other boroughs from the ‘destinations’ publication from DfE (2010) and Camden residents in other borough DfE January Schools’ Census returns (2011 to 2014). It is important to note that although these figures are all based on the January school census, the other borough school census returns are collected by Camden officers from other boroughs on a voluntary basis. This means that data for may not be directly comparable i.e. some boroughs may not submit info in a given year or occasionally some academy information is missing. Residents that may be attending private/independent settings are not included as there is no statutory collection that would facilitate analysis at this level.

Table 7 – Camden residents in other borough provision LA NC Year 7-11 No. NC Year 7-11 % Borough no 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 206 Islington 590 524 684 702 742 35 35 38 39 38 213 Westminster 639 571 708 695 722 38 38 39 38 37 302 Barnet 183 168 167 175 179 11 11 9 10 9 304 Brent 85 86 82 81 84 5 6 5 4 4 208 Lambeth 36 33 48 66 2 2 3 3 207 K&C 56 53 54 57 52 3 4 3 3 3 205 H&F 41 29 11 52 51 2 2 1 3 3 309 Haringey 15 10 13 18 25 1 1 1 1 1 310 Harrow 5 3 2 8 0 0 0 0 204 Hackney 3 1 4 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 320 Waltham Forest 2 1 4 0 0 0 313 Hounslow 1 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 211 Tower Hamlets 3 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 317 Redbridge 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 306 Croydon 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 307 Ealing 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 919 Hertfordshire 7 1 9 0 0 1 308 Enfield 6 3 5 11 0 0 0 1 210 Southwark 2 0 Other LAs 8 3 4 0 0 0 Total 1675 1487 1796 1806 1951 100 100 100 100 100 Source: 'School Destinations of Resident Pupils in London 2010 DfE; OB Jan 2011-14 School Census Secondary NC Year 7-11). Note numbers are lower in 2011 due to some borough's not providing Camden resident data, academy data has been provided in later years

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7.2.2 In 2014 there was an increase since 2013 in the number of Camden residents attending schools in other boroughs (of +145 to 1,951) but Camden continues to be a net ‘importer’ of secondary aged pupils with 1,951 Camden resident children attending an out-borough school in 2014 cf. 2,738 residents from other boroughs attending a Camden school. The highest exports of Camden residents in 2014 continue to be to Islington (38%) and Westminster (37%).

7.2.3 Camden is a net importer from most neighbouring boroughs, the main exception being Westminster to which Camden exports a significantly higher number of Camden residents than it imports i.e. in 2014, 722 Camden residents attended a Westminster school cf. 203 Westminster residents attending a Camden school.

8.0 Independent Schools

8.1 Consistent with 2012 information, as at January 2013, approximately 11% of children on roll in a London school were on roll in an independent school and in Inner London this increased to 15%; whereas 29% of pupils on roll in a Camden school were in an independent school, which continues to be one of the highest proportions in London. Camden has 33 independent schools, which in January 2013, accounted for 35% of all schools in Camden (though some of these are quite small).

8.2 Other boroughs with high proportions of independent schools and places are: Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster, Hammersmith & Fulham and Wandsworth. 4 of the 5 City of London schools in January 20-13 were independent and accounted for 90% of pupils on roll.

8.3 It should be noted that there is no information publically available that states where the children on roll in independent schools live or indeed the number of Camden residents attending independent provision but the figure has been estimated at 30% of secondary aged Camden residents attending an independent school in 2014 and is comparable to last year (31%).

8.4 This estimate of secondary aged Camden residents attending independent schools is based on the number of ‘unaccounted’ secondary aged residents as a proportion of the underlying secondary aged population projected for a given year (using GLA PP); once we have looked at Camden residents on roll in Camden schools and neighbouring borough schools.

8.5 The information for 2014 shows the relatively low proportions of Camden residents living in planning areas 1 and 5 estimated to attend Camden schools (including UCL) i.e. 31% and 25% respectively (including special schools/PRUs). However, PA1 residents are more likely to attend independent schools (49%), whilst PA5 residents are more likely to attend a school in another LA (48%). This is comparable to 2013.

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Table 8: 2014 Estimates of % Camden residents attending Camden/Other LA/Independent Secondary Provision by Planning Area (PA) Planning Area ALL Camden PA1 PA2 PA3 PA4 PA5 Residents 2013 GLA Population Projections (March 14) 2400 1800 2900 1500 1100 9600 Camden Secondary 29% 66% 54% 61% 23% 47% Camden Other (Special/PRU) 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% Other LA Secondary (Known attendance) 21% 9% 13% 26% 48% 20% Other LA Special (Known attendance) 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Alternative Provision 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Independent 49% 23% 31% 11% 27% 30% Source: January 14 DfE Schools' Census returns and data sharing w ith neighbouring boroughs; 2013 GLA Camden Development Population Projections (March 2014) for secondary aged population aged 11-15 for 2014 PA1 = Fortune Green, Frognal and Fitzjohn’s, Hampstead Tow n, Kilburn and West Hampstead w ards PA2 = Highgate, Gospel Oak, and Kentish Tow n w ards PA3 = Sw iss Cottage, Belsize, Haverstock, Camden Tow n and Primrose Hill and Cantelow es w ards PA4 = Regent’s Park and St Pancras and Somers Tow n w ards PA5 = Bloomsbury, Kings Cross, and Holborn and Covent Garden w ards

8.6 Whilst there is some reservation by the GLA as to the reliability of secondary aged population projections noted in section 5; the effect would be to increase the percentages estimated to attend independent provision and reduce the percentages attending state-funded provision)

9.0 Neighbouring LAs known pressures and plans

9.1 Understanding likely growth/decline in neighbouring boroughs and assessing the possible effect on imports/exports is clearly important to the analysis of likely demand in Camden.

9.2 As in previous years, surrounding boroughs were again asked by Camden officers to supply current information on their places planning using a Camden designed pro-forma that outlined the data required for 2014 and pertinent to places planning. Unfortunately Barnet did not respond in 2014 but the authorities of; Brent, Haringey, Islington and Westminster responded and below is a summary of any pressures and imminent changes identified by the authorities.

9.3 Barnet (no response) 9.3.1 Camden admissions team are not aware of any admissions issues in Barnet.

9.3.2 Based on the latest published list of free schools from DfE there were two secondary free schools that opened in the borough in September 2013. There were none planned beyond 2014.

9.4 Brent 9.4.1 Brent has seen an increase of almost 200 ‘on-time’ Year 7 applications since 2013, but all had been offered a school place for 2014/15 and the borough is not experiencing additional demand for 2014/15.

9.4.2 There were three free schools due to open in September 2014 but only one has an identified site and will open in 2014 - Michaela Community with an admission number (AN) of 120 is located at Arena House, the former College of North West London opposite Wembley Park station in North End Road. Gateway Academy (AN

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100) opening has been deferred until September 2015 (site to be confirmed) and Gladstone School (AN 120) recently confirmed they would not be opening in September 2014 but are still pursuing a temporary site within one mile of their ideal site location i.e. Cricklewood area.

9.4.3 Brent believes that there are sufficient school places available in 2014/15 with the opening of Michaela Community and the expansion of Crest boys and girls by 1FE each in year 7 and does not envisage the need for any further places beyond those already planned.

9.5 Haringey 9.5.1 Haringey is experiencing additional demand for secondary places, but they are able to accommodate Year 7 demand for the September 2014 intake.

9.5.2 In recent years Haringey has reduced admission numbers at some of their schools in response to a downward trend in demand for Year 7 places. The borough can provide increased capacity in the future by raising the admissions numbers again to respond to increasing cohort sizes that are expected to work their way through from the primary sector around 2018. There are limited places at schools in the upper year groups with the exception of one school that has greater surplus places and thus in-year admissions for the older age groups are Haringey’s biggest challenge.

9.5.3 Haringey has a new Harris Academy (Tottenham) offering 180 year 7 places for September 2014 but it will be operating temporarily for one year from Chobham Academy site in Stratford. They are not aware of any other applications for new free schools or academy converters.

9.5.4 The borough does not envisage the need for a temporary increase in year 7 places in the short term but anticipates that they will require a new secondary school to accommodate the larger numbers of reception pupils working through the system in the future. To do this, they will be looking at existing schools to ascertain if they can be expanded to meet demand.

9.6 Islington 9.6.1 Islington is not experiencing additional demand for secondary places in September 2014, with Year 7 vacancies for 2014/15.

9.6.2 The borough says that they are not aware of plans for the establishment of any free schools in the borough (except alternative provider) and they are not anticipating the need for any increases in the temporary or permanent provision of secondary places.

9.7 Westminster 9.7.1 Westminster is not experiencing additional demand for secondary school places in September 2014.

9.7.2 Marylebone Boys free school will open with 120 year 7 places in September 2014 on a temporary site (in Brent) at Priory Park Road in Kilburn NW6 on the border with Camden for at least two years whilst a permanent site is found. There are no known further plans for the establishment of additional free schools and the majority of Westminster schools are academies.

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9.7.3 Westminster doesn’t envisage the need for additional temporary increases in school places for September 2014 but does however expect to need to provide more permanent expansion in the future (see Westminster Investment Strategy for details).

10.0 Conclusions

10.1 Short to medium term need 10.1.1 The GLA believe that the likely rise in the number of secondary age children is not being adequately reflected in the post-2011 national census generated projections and will not be confident in projections until the long awaited ONS migration data from the 2011 national census are factored in.

10.1.2 Consequently, both the 2012 and 2013 GLA projected numbers of 11 year olds are projecting minimal growth between 2014 and 2024 (c. 2% for 2014 PP) with peaks in 2015 and 2019. However, the GLA believe growth will be higher than suggested by these PP; particularly in the longer term as more robust year on year migration calculations are factored in and the slight increase in the Camden fertility rates; particularly among older women, take effect. But, the extent of this projected growth is not yet known

10.1.3 The school roll projections (SRP) received from GLA in 2013 and 2014 are based on a new model and are not directly comparable to the previous 2012 version but due to the uncertainty surrounding post-2011 national census generated population projections for the secondary aged population in particular; the GLA have used roll replacement ratios from Year 6 to Year 7 to project Year 7 SRP (rather than underlying 11 year old population projection-catchment that would ideally be used). This was done to ensure that there is no under-projecting of rolls coming through in the secondary ages and would also mean the higher Reception numbers coming through would be incorporated in future Year 7 SRP.

10.1.4 2014 Year 7 SRP are marginally higher than 2013 SRP but lower than 2012 SRP in the medium term and, consistent with 2013 SRP, are forecast to remain below borough capacity until 2019/20 when the borough may need to utilise the additional 2FE capacity that is potentially available at Regent High.

10.1.5 2014 SRP suggest the possibility of a bulge class in 2020/21 over and above the capacity available (including Regent High) but then projected numbers fall to be more consistent with borough capacity. As set out earlier in the report, this is largely attributable to the revised method of calculating SRP. Consequently, the high reception numbers in 2013 and 2014 have resulted in this peaking in 2020 and 2021 but may not adequately reflect the secondary school parental preferences of Camden residents e.g. 2014 SRP for 2014/15 are fairly consistent with applications received from Camden residents (1598 cf 1587 applications) but there are currently 145 Year 7 vacancies in Camden secondary schools for Sept 2014; and it is likely that c. 40% of the Year 7 roll in Sept 2014 will be non-Camden residents and thus clearly demonstrating that not all of the roll projected by SRP will be Camden residents or indeed be wanting a place in a Camden school.

10.1.6 Whilst 2014 SRP suggest Year 7 will be close to capacity from 2019/20 (with potential bulge class in 2020/21) and the secondary age group more generally will be approaching capacity towards the end of the reporting period then housing development and the associated phasing needs to be monitored closely. However,

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when analysed in conjunction with other evidence then current capacity (potentially using the additional 2 FE capacity at Regent High from 2019/20) should be sufficient until the end of the reporting period bar the possibility of a single bulge class in 2020/21.

10.1.7 Other evidence includes the current observed patterns of Year 6 to Year 7 transfer (including cross-borough migration patterns), the limited additional capacity other boroughs believe they need to add in the short/medium term and the impact of housing development thus far on demand for school places.

10.2 Longer term planning 10.2.1 An analysis of the planned housing trajectory data up until 2028/29, that looks at cumulative growth in terms of additional forms of entry (FE) based on estimates of child yield, suggests the intensive areas of development; particularly King’s Cross development (PA4) and West Hampstead Interchange (PA1) are likely to yield increased demand for places in these areas. However the report has factored in housing development until 2023/24 and only PA4 currently has substantive additional housing development planned beyond this i.e. an additional 1.2-1.6 FE per year group. Longer term need will be picked up alongside the work on the Council’s local development framework.

10.2.2 As it is unlikely that all children from additional housing development will want a Camden school place (or already have one; dependent on where they have moved from); Camden uses estimates based on ‘high’ and ‘recent’ (based on recently observed pattern) estimates and calculated as 90% and 69% of all children likely to live in the additional housing. This information is incorporated into the overall population projections to some extent and consequentially into SRP.

10.2.3 The possible implications of development in the Euston Area (PA4) via High Speed 2 (HS2) beyond 2026 will have implications for school place planning that may require further expansions in the future.

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APPENDIX A

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APPENDIX B Flowchart of GLA Population Projections Cycle

1) The cycle begins with the initial borough populations by single years of age (0 to 90+) and gender. For the first year, this is the base population, for subsequent years this is the projected population at the end of the previous cycle.

2) The starting population is aged-on and survived to the end of the year by application of survival rates (the complement of mortality rates).

3) Births are calculated by applying fertility rates to the female population. As births occur throughout the projection year they are calculated using a combination of the starting and the aged-on and survived female populations at the end of the year.

4) Survival rates are applied to births to project the number that will reach ‘age 0’ at the end of the projection year.

5) The out-migration from each borough to each possible destination is calculated using age and gender specific probability rates.

6) Those migrating to other London boroughs are added in to the relevant destination borough populations.

7) Numbers of in-migrants to London from the three UK origins are determined by applying migration probabilities to the ONS population projections for those areas.

8) Numbers of in-migrants from overseas are projected from the historic record of international migrants and a constant age and gender distribution of the totals.

Source: GLA 2013 round of trend-based population projections – methodology (February 2014)

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APPENDIX C GLA SRP General Information

London, in common with most other London LAs commissions the GLA to produce School Roll Projections (SRP). The SRP service draws on the more general demographic analyses of the GLA.

GLA GLASchool Roll Demographers Projection

Population Projections School Roll data from LA School National Census and Roll ONS MYE Projections for next 10 Info on births and years based deaths on past trends Migration figures in school rolls and Planned housing projected development data future from LA. population changes

SRP uses two main types of ratios:-

R = roll replacement which looks at trend data and the number of pupils in one year moving to the next.

C = catchment, which looks at trends in the ratio of pupils in maintained schools in the borough and the number of pupils of the same age in the local population. Usually used for Reception and Year 7 rolls in particular

NB from 2013; revised SRP methodology that combines the benefits of both catchment and replacement ratios; in conjunction with GLA population projections and additional housing development. Year 7 SRP at this time are not anchored to underlying Year 7 population projections due to lack of confidence in the current projected numbers coming through for secondary age groups. Confidence will return once the delayed ONS migration data from 2011 national census are factored in rather than current estimates of migration. This information is overdue at this time.

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Secondary Schools by Camden Ward APPENDIX D

REPORT ENDS

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