APPENDIX 2 2014 SCHOOL PLACE PLANNING REPORT CONTENTS This report uses the 2013 GLA Camden Development Population Projections (March 2014), 2014 GLA School Roll Projections (June 2014) and actual roll data from the January 2014 and May 2014 DfE School Census. Secondary Main Report 1. Introduction Page 2 2. Net capacity/surplus and numbers on roll Page 3 3. Birth rates Page 5 4. Planned housing development Page 6 5. GLA Population projections Page 11 6. GLA school roll projections Page 16 7. Cross-border movement Page 20 8. Independent schools Page 22 9. Neighbouring LAs known pressures and plans Page 23 10. Conclusions Page 25 Appendices A. Camden’s Development Trajectory (growth areas) Page 27 B_1. Flowchart of GLA Population Projections Cycle Page 28 B_2. GLA Flow Diagram of GLA School Roll Projection Service Page 29 C. MAP: Secondary Schools by Camden Wards Page 30 D. Appendix D - Secondary School Places Planning Report tables are supplied as an attachment and should be read in conjunction with this report, these include; Table D1 - School Capacity Collection 2014 Summary (provisional) Table D2_1 - Percentage of Secondary Places Filled by Year Group: Jan 2013 Table D2_2 - Percentage of Secondary Places Filled by Year Group: Jan 2014 Table D3 - 2012/13-2014/15 Year 7 Secondary Offer Summary - as at Offer Day (R1) Table D4_1 to D4_4 - Additional Child Yield from Identified Sites and Windfall combined 2014 including Table D5 - 2013 Camden Population Projections Age 11/Age 11-15 by ward Table D6 - 2012-2014 GLA School Roll Projections (SRP) Table D7 - Resident Population of Camden Secondary School's: Jan 2014 Table D8 - Camden residents attending Camden and Other Borough (OB) provision January 2012 to January 2014 1 SECONDARY PLACES PLANNING: Report July 2014 1.0 Introduction 1.1 This report provides an update on Camden’s secondary places planning, taking account of the latest population projections (2013 GLA Camden Development March 2014), GLA school roll projections (SRP - 2014) and housing development data (Camden Culture & Environment - May 2014). The report should be used in conjunction with Appendix D - Secondary School Places Planning Report that provides detailed tables underpinning the analysis set out in the report and the corresponding tables are referenced throughout. 1.2 The authority, in its role as commissioner of new school places, has a statutory duty to ensure that there are sufficient school places within the borough. However, the changing face of school provision with the introduction of free schools and existing schools being able to convert to academy status, coupled with changes in education legislation through the Academies Act 2010 has made the arrangements for starting new schools more complex. Local authorities are now not able to put forward proposals for new community schools until any potential free school/academy route is exhausted. 1.3 At this time, Camden has one Academy – UCL that opened in 2012/13 academic year as part of Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme and two known interested free school groups in Camden i.e. South of Euston Road (SER) secondary free school group (4FE secondary school) but has subsequently had their application rejected by DfE. 1.4 In May 2014, the NW6 new school campaign submitted a free school application and the website suggests this is for a combined 2FE primary and 6FE secondary school in the West Hampstead NW6 area. 1.5 Effective planning needs to analyse various strands of information when anticipating current and future needs including; - The current capacity of schools, any surplus places and/or immediate pressures - Projected future demand including planned housing development trajectory - Any local variance within the borough - The impact of any proposed changes in other boroughs 1.6 All of the above strands of information are covered in detail below. Inevitably data changes year on year and this report gives the current known position as at June 2014. 1.7 This appendix report is organised to review each of the strands of information used to inform places planning and are reviewed in conjunction with each other in order to inform places planning. 1.8 It should be noted that whilst housing development data from Camden underpins the population projections from the GLA; the LA also uses its own calculations of the number of additional children arising from the planned housing development (child yield) and analyses alongside the SRP to ensure all potential additional children are taken into account. 2 2.0 Net capacity, surplus and numbers on roll 2.1 School admission numbers are easily understood and can be easily broken down into year groups, but the DfE requires the use of Net Capacity (NC) figures for many planning purposes, and measures surplus places against these. The NC covers the whole secondary age range from Year 7 to sixth form and takes account of the space within a school and how rooms are utilised to arrive at a capacity figure for a school. 2.2 Table 1 below shows the overall Camden analysis of the School Capacity/Surplus Places returns to the DfE* from 2010-2013 and a provisional estimate for 2014. A range of between 5% and 10% is considered by DfE to be an acceptable margin for meeting a reasonable level of parental preference. The information shows that there has been an increase in surplus capacity in Camden secondary schools; with surplus increasing from 5.4% in 2010 to 11.6% in 2014, without the inclusion of UCL Academy (which it is not appropriate to include because it is filling gradually from year 7 admissions). The increasing surplus is due largely to lower rolls at Regent High and Maria Fidelis schools in recent years, although the year 7 rolls at these schools did increase in 2014. The apparent high surplus capacity at UCL is as a consequence of the school only admitting from year 7 in successive years and post 16 pupils. Table 1 - Actual Surplus Trend 2010 – 2014 Actual Surplus % Numbers 2014 (provisional) *Actual Actual Net Camden Total 2014 Pupils Surplus 2010 2011 2012 2013 Capacity (P) NOR Places 2014 (May) (May) Secondary without UCL 5.4 6.2 9.2 9.5 11.6 9253 10472 1219 Secondary with UCL 15.9 15.8 9786 11622 1836 *Include the actual number on roll (NOR) from May 2014 Provisional School Census (all pupils) - updated 4/6/2014 NB. The apparent capacity at UCL Academy is due to the schools still populating from Year7 starting in 12/13 (including sixth form). Consequently, this distorts the overall LA capacity figures. It should also be noted that capacity figures for schools can change to accommodate new additions/re-organising of space. 2.3 Appendix D: (Table D1) provides a provisional 2014 school level break down of the above information and indicates that Maria Fidelis and Regent High are again the schools (excluding UCL) with the highest current overall surplus 36% and 34% respectively compared to 31% for both schools last year. The surplus at Acland Burghley has also increased from 10% in 2013 to a provisional figure of 15% for 2014. The increase in surplus at the two schools in the south of the borough is attributable to the lower numbers of pupils coming through to Year 7 in the last four years but both schools had higher year 7 rolls for 2013/14. The high rates of vacancies is not attributable to lower population numbers south of the borough based on projected population estimates (see Section 5). 3 2.4 Year 7 roll trends for all schools in Table 2 below show that some schools continue to be full or very close to Admission Number (AN) capacity, namely Camden School for Girls, La Sainte Union, UCL Academy and William Ellis. Other schools have a relatively small numbers of vacancies i.e. Acland Burghley, Hampstead and Parliament Hill; but all three schools have more vacancies in 13/14 than the year before. Haverstock also has relatively low vacancies and fewer vacancies than in 12/13. Maria Fidelis and Regent High continue to have the most vacancies but both schools have seen fewer vacancies in 2013/14 cf. the previous year and current Year 7 secondary applications and offer information for 2014/15 suggests Year 7 rolls in these schools will increase again. Table 2 – Number of Year 7 Pupils on Roll Admission NC Year 7 - Numbers on Roll (January) School No 2013/14 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Acland Burghley 182 179 180 182 180 167 Camden School for Girls 112 114 112 112 112 112 Hampstead 210 210 212 210 207 199 Haverstock 210 196 208 211 189 199 La Sainte Union 180 180 185 180 183 180 Maria Fidelis 150 110 83 99 83 94 Parliament Hill 180 183 178 180 178 167 Regent High 180 91 105 127 96 115 UCL Academy 180 178 180 William Ellis 125 129 122 125 122 122 Camden Total 1709 1392 1385 1426 1528 1535 Source: DfE January Schools’ Census 2.5 Appendix D: Table D2_1 and Table D2_2 show roll information by year group for January 2013 and January 2014 respectively; alongside the percentage of the year group that has been filled (based on year admission number). As indicated in Table 2 above; there has been more capacity in recent years due to the lower number of pupils coming through from Year 7 generally in the south of the borough and now the percentage of places filled for each year group is c. 90%. 2.6 The application data for 2014/15 year 7 admissions round at ‘offer date’ (March 2014) shows that there was a higher number of applications from Camden residents in 2014 than in 2013 (1,587 cf.