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Staying Focused on Recovery Global CIO Office Staying focused on recovery Investment Monthly | Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd. | January 2021 Japan investment strategy Japan asset allocation Global investment strategy Focusing on changes in the Turn neutral on investment grade Equities remain favored post-pandemic world bonds page 3 page 5 page 10 Important Information This report represents the views of the Investment Strategy Department of CS and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. It is not a product of the Credit Suisse Research Department even if it contains published research recommendations. CS has policies in place to manage conflicts of interest including policies relating to dealing ahead of the dis- semination of investment research. These policies do not apply to the views of Investment Strategists contained in this report. Please find further important information at the end of this material. Singapore: For accredited investors only. Hong Kong: For professional investors only. Australia: For wholesale clients only. Editorial In this issue Japan investment strategy 3 Focusing on changes in the post-pandemic world Japan asset allocation 5 Turn neutral on investment grade bonds Michael Strobaek Burkhard Varnholt Investment themes and solutions 7 Global Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer – Swiss Univer- sal Bank Silver economy: Investment solutions Equity markets began the new year much like they had ended Economics 9 the old one, heading higher. Neither the storming of the US Strong growth, easy policy Capitol nor the Democrat sweep in the Georgia Senate elec- tions managed to derail the rally. It seems that equity investors Global investment strategy 10 weighed the improved prospect of further fiscal stimulus more Equities remain favored strongly than worries over possible future tax rises. In our view, the backdrop for the year ahead remains con- Special topic 11 ducive for risk assets. Although the resurgent COVID-19 Strategic Asset Allocation pandemic and related restrictions are dampening economic growth for now, the vaccine rollout supports our forecast of an acceleration in economic activity beyond the first quarter. Special topic 12 At the same time, recent worries over a potential rise in infla- Democratic sweep lowers risk of gridlock tion and a premature tightening of Fed policy seem exagger- ated. Thus, we retain an overweight allocation to equities in a portfolio context, expressed through an overweight in Fixed income 13 emerging market equities. We also keep an overweight allo- Eyes on yield curve steepening cation to commodities. Taking a more nuanced position for an eventual economic recovery, we now add cyclical and value Equities 14 positions to portfolios. Specifically, we favor the UK equity Adding value and cyclicality market, which is attractively valued and geared strongly to commodities and pharmaceuticals. Moreover, we add finan- cials to our preferred sectors, as they should benefit from Alternative investments 15 higher bond yields. At the same time, return expectations in Expect real estate to underperform equities various credit segments have diminished. Also, we still expect the USD to eventually continue weakening. Foreign exchange 16 As part of our robust investment process, we fine-tune our USD consolidation unlikely to alter downtrend tactical views at least once a month. Once a year, we also subject our Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) to a thorough Forecasts 17 review to ensure that client portfolios remain on a strong At a glance foundation. In the pages ahead, we look at this year’s SAA adjustments. Editorial deadline: 21 January 2021 Enjoy the read! Investment Monthly | Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., January 2021 2 Japan investment strategy Focusing on changes in the post-pandemic world Policy support is expected to be prolonged as the global economy enters a phase of full-fledged recovery. Long-term trends and investment themes are likely to attract considerable investor at- tention in the post-pandemic landscape. Soichiro Matsumoto Focus turns to social cohesion and addressing widening Chief Investment Officer Japan domestic wealth disparities In the post-pandemic world, the spread of globalism, which Monetary and fiscal policy support set to be prolonged has traditionally prioritized economic efficiency, will slow down, The suppression of economic activity in light of the spread of while efforts to heal the wounds of widening inequalities are the COVID-19 outbreak has triggered a deflationary shock likely to receive further impetus. The reason for this is that emanating from the significant demand slump and, conse- as inequality begets and solidifies social stratification and so- quently, the widened supply-demand gap. Should the restric- cial dynamism withers, the economy loses its ability to achieve tions put in place to prevent the spread of infections extend growth in the long term. further, there are concerns that it could potentially lead to a build up of deflationary expectations in the economy. In such We believe that the middle class, which has not been blessed an eventuality, individuals would in general refrain from invest- with the benefits of the growth precipitated by globalization, ing and consume even if they have sufficient assets and funds requires some succor. In addition to social infrastructure de- at their disposal. velopment, policymakers are likely to consider minimum wage increases, expansion of social security programs, and low- One of the most important lessons the world has learned from cost access to higher education. By implementing such pro- Japan’s “lost decade“ is that it is difficult to escape a defla- grams, society will be able to once again achieve a stable tionary mindset once it becomes widespread. How do we level of cohesion. avert such a long-term risk? Arguably, a key prescription would be to prolong the supportive monetary and fiscal poli- Japan’s slow-paced economic recovery cies. The year 2021 will likely be a year of recovery for the Japanese economy. However, the speed of such growth will Global economic recovery rolls in remain relatively slow. This is because, in addition to the Apart from monetary easing, aggressive fiscal stimulus mea- country’s low potential growth rate due to demographic fac- sures will play their part in boosting the global economic re- tors, Japanese consumers retain a strong deflationary mind- covery into the second half of 2021 and beyond. Given the set, even if deflation itself has yet to rear its head. Even constraints of COVID-19 related restrictions, consumer though these consumers have money on hand, they are not preferences seem to have shifted from services to goods confident enough about the future to be aggressive in their consumption. As a result, business sentiment in manufacturing spending and investing. is showing signs of recovery, and ordering activity trend seems to be improving too. In addition, the expansion of the medical facilities to deal with the spread of infectious diseases may not be sufficient. As Widespread vaccinations and expansion of medical facilities a result, stepping on the gas pedal of economic stimulus may are expected to bolster economic activity further. We reckon prove difficult. the pace of economic recovery will, in particular, accelerate in Asia and elsewhere considering the countries’ more effec- Expected returns back to average tive management of the health crisis. In major developed regions, share price growth has outpaced economic and corporate earnings growth for the past several years. A significant portion of this growth may be explained by rising valuations. Excess stock yields relative to interest Investment Monthly | Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., January 2021 3 rates have remained at a steady level, so it would not be ap- Accelerating changes related to the pandemic propriate to say that valuations are currently in bubble territory 1. Investment opportunities provided by a receding (overvaluation). globalism Political commitments designed to deal with Japan’s social However, real interest rates have already fallen to record lows, fragmentation are expected to provide long-term investment and potential further upside to stock valuations has diminished. opportunities. Strategies on which we are currently focusing Expected returns in 2021 are likely to show a greater regres- include infrastructure investment funds, private equity and sion to the mean compared to the previous year. the long-term themes discussed in the our “Angry societies – Multipolar world” Supertrend. Recommended investment strategies 2. Investment lessons: Increased awareness of risk The experience of having lived through an entirely unpre- hedging dictable pandemic has provided an important lesson for in- A growing awareness of the importance of risk preparedness vestors. Investors who are now accustomed to the “great is expected to lead to greater global asset diversification as moderation” have become more conscious of hedging their part of long-term investments. This is because such a strategy risks. We believe that the market has rediscovered the signif- can be expected to effectively stabilize returns without incur- icance of global asset diversification as part of a strong long- ring a high additional cost. term investment strategy. 3. Investment themes related to the advent of a new Strategies related to prolongation of policy
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