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Rising Yields Benefit Rotation Trade Global CIO Office Rising yields benefit rotation trade Investment Monthly | Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd. | March 2021 Japan investment strategy Japan asset allocation Global investment strategy Reduce risk for a stable investment Neutral on global equities Paring back some risk portfolio page 3 page 5 page 9 Important Information This report represents the views of the Investment Strategy Department of CS and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. It is not a product of the Credit Suisse Research Department even if it contains published research recommendations. CS has policies in place to manage conflicts of interest including policies relating to dealing ahead of the dis- semination of investment research. These policies do not apply to the views of Investment Strategists contained in this report. Please find further important information at the end of this material. Singapore: For accredited investors only. Hong Kong: For professional investors only. Australia: For wholesale clients only. Editorial In this issue Japan investment strategy 3 Reduce risk for a stable investment portfolio Japan asset allocation 5 Neutral on global equities Michael Strobaek Burkhard Varnholt Investment solutions 7 Global Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer – Swiss Univer- Japan investment theme 2021: Pushing for a sal Bank carbon-free society In recent weeks, bond yields have stolen the limelight. In the Economics 8 USA, rapid progress with vaccinations and substantial addi- Much improved US outlook has driven global yields up tional fiscal stimulus led to a sharply improved growth outlook, lifting government bond yields there as well as globally. The resulting spike in market volatility temporarily took the major Global investment strategy 9 indices back down from their highs and especially hurt growth Paring back some risk stocks. Special topic 10 Rising bond yields and their implications for financial markets From bear to bull were also the subject of discussion in our latest Investment Committee meeting. We continue to believe that markets should be able to digest higher yields in the months ahead, Special topic 11 as they occur against the backdrop of a strong reacceleration How to tackle rising inflation of growth. Yet, in the adjustment process, further setbacks are quite likely. In light of these considerations, we have taken profit on our equity overweight, shifting the asset class back Fixed income 12 to strategic allocations in portfolios. In particular, we have re- EM HC corporates preferred within credit moved our tactical overweight in emerging markets (EM) and especially China. However, our longer-term outlook for overall equities, including EM, remains positive, which is reflected in Equities 13 our increased strategic allocation to the asset class. We retain Rising yields benefit rotation trade a mildly cyclical bias through our continued overweight alloca- tion to the broad commodity index. As we explain in a special topic article this month, the acceleration in demand growth Alternative investments 14 for commodities should offset the negative impact of higher Listed real estate should lag equities bond yields, and supply constraints should remain supportive into the summer. With the USA currently enjoying a growth Foreign exchange 15 and real yield advantage, we also expect the USD to have at More cautious on low yielding currencies least temporary support against a number of currencies. In light of this, we have shifted our view on the broad USD index (DXY) from unattractive to neutral. Forecasts 16 At a glance Enjoy the read! Editorial deadline: 17 March 2021 Investment Monthly | Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., March 2021 2 Japan investment strategy Reduce risk for a stable investment portfolio Global economic growth is likely to accelerate. We expect the market will overcome fears of rising inflation gradually. Investors should seek ways to control investment portfolio risk. Soichiro Matsumoto Post-pandemic, social and economic changes will Chief Investment Officer Japan continue to accelerate: Rebuilding infrastructure Once the pandemic winds down, the world’s social and eco- Economic recovery and inflation nomic landscape is unlikely to immediately return to the pre- The resumption of economic activity and massive fiscal stim- pandemic “normal.” Even if the COVID-19 outbreak is con- ulus have revived market expectations of a further rise in in- tained, the risk of a new pandemic will always persist. On the flation. We believe an increase in the inflation rate in conjunc- other hand, it will be quite difficult to continue the large-scale tion with the current economic recovery is a sign of economic monetary easing and fiscal spending measures. health. However, rising inflation can negatively affect corpo- rate earnings, which in turn will reflect in valuation of the Therefore, the world will need to adjust socially and econom- market that has so far been supported by monetary easing. ically such that it becomes more resistant to future pandemics. As was the case when our global society and economy under- The recent sharp swings in investor sentiment suggest it went major changes with the advent of the Internet, those would be prudent to avoid excessive portfolio risk until inflation societies and economies that are able to adapt quickly will rate volatility in the early stages of the economic recovery is come out on top. fully factored in. As such, governments have an incentive to rebuild their so- Rising inflation can be a tail risk cioeconomic infrastructure in a way that makes them more A shift toward tighter monetary policy to contain an unexpect- pandemic resistant. In Japan, the promotion of digitalization ed surge in inflation will continue to be a tail risk for the mar- in government and other sectors has started, and this trend ket. This means not only that bond prices will fall and support will eventually spread to the entire economic sphere as work for current equity valuations will recede, but also that there environments and business practices in Japan change drasti- is a greater risk of fiscal pressure from significantly higher cally. interest payments on public debt. However, we believe such a scenario is unlikely and these concerns should be consigned Investment spurred by supply chain retooling to tail risk management. Security concerns related to China seem to be on the rise in the world, including Europe, the USA and Japan. In terms of Corporate earnings recovery geopolitical risk, as the confrontation between the USA and During the pandemic recession, aggressive policy support China intensifies, the major economies will each seek to in- has ensured that corporate bankruptcies and other credit-re- creasingly rely on domestic supply chains. To address current lated issues remain low. This suggests that when the economy problems related to the procurement of semiconductors, reopens, corporate earnings will likely recover quickly. countries will likely accelerate their investment in building se- cured supply chains, including strategic goods. Japanese companies are rapidly increasing their overseas sales, and should be helped by the economic recovery in their This will add to cost pressure for companies, but they are also end markets, particularly the USA and Asia. At March-end, likely to be benefited due to increased new investment. they are likely to make major revisions to their numbers as the fiscal year ends, which should be in investors’ focus. Corporate Japan: The fruits of enhanced governance The Japan market is the only major stock market in the world that has not made a new all-time high recently. Meanwhile, Japanese corporate profits reached record levels last year. Investment Monthly | Japan edition / Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Ltd., March 2021 3 However, the fact that the Nikkei Stock Average was able to gressive in mergers & acquisitions (M&A) and other invest- recover the 30,000-yen level may dispel potential pessimism ments to reform their business structure, private equity too about Japanese equities. With the enactment of corporate can be an interesting investment option. governance codes and stewardship codes, Japanese compa- nies have become proactive in their treatment of shareholder Accelerating changes related to the pandemic interests and have been increasing share buybacks and divi- Investment opportunities provided by receding globalism: dends. Looking at Japanese stocks in terms of dividend-in- Political commitments designed to address Japan’s social clusive indices, the MSCI Japan (Net Total Return) Index hit fragmentation are expected to provide long-term investment its bubble-era high in February 2021. opportunities. We now focus on strategies including infrastruc- ture investment funds, private equity and the long-term Revisions in corporate governance codes have encouraged themes discussed in a Supertrends series report. management to be conscious of the cost of capital. Through these and similar management changes, foreign investors Investment lesson – increased awareness of risk hedging. A will be able to invest in Japanese companies with increased growing awareness of the importance of risk preparedness confidence. From a long-term perspective, the above factors is expected to lead to greater global asset diversification as are likely to help revitalize the Japan equity market. part of a long-term investment strategy.
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