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Worksheet 11 Odds and Probability (Baseball)

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Worksheet 11 Odds and Probability (Baseball) BUS/ST 350 LECTURE WORKSHEET #11 Reiland Name Lab Section ANSWERS ODDS AND PROBABILITIES Recall from lecture: If the probability of 2013 World Series Odds an event ETÐEÑis , then the odds in favor (Against winning) of E are TÐEÑto "TÐEÑ. It follows Open Current that the odds against E"TÐEÑ are to 4/1/13 7/19/13 TÐEÑ. NY Yankees 20 18 Example. If the probability is .25 that Atlanta Braves 14 8 State will beat Duke (event E), the odds Cleveland Ind. 70 100 in favor of State are .25 (TÐEÑ ) to .75 Houston Astros 400 1000 ("TÐEÑ ), or 1 to 3. The odds against San Diego P 100 500 State are .75 ("TÐEÑ ) to .25 ( TÐEÑ ) or Boston Red Sox 30 12 3 to 1. Texas Rangers 20 10 If the odds in favor of an event E+are to LA Angels 7 18 +,w ,TÐEÑœTÐEÑœ, then +,, and +, . SF Giants 12 15 Example. If the odds in favor of State Toronto Blue J 12 25 beating Duke are 1 to 3, then TÐW>+>/ NY Mets 100 90 Baltimore O's 20 20 ,/+>= H?5/Ñ œ"" œ and T ÐW>+>/ "$ % Seattle Mariners 60 150 .9/= 89> ,/+> H?5/Ñ œ$$ œ Þ "$ % LA Dodgers 8 15 Chicago Cubs 70 400 In the column to the right are the odds put St. Louis Card. 16 12 out by Las Vegas bookmakers against Colorado Rock. 150 30 each of the thirty major league teams Chicago W.Sox 40 75 winning the 2013 World Series. All odds Cincinnati Reds 9 10 are “# to 1”. Mil. Brewers 60 40 Pittsburgh Pirates 60 40 For example, the Current odds against the Oakland A's 25 20 Yankees winning the world series are 18 Phil. Phillies 25 50 to 1. S imilarly, the Current odds against KC Royals 50 30 the Atlanta Braves are 8 to 1, and the Arizona D'backs 40 22 Current odds against the pathetic Houston Washington 7 10 Astros are a 1000 to 1. Detroit Tigers 6 6 Minnesota Twins 150 200 1. Use the Current column to answer the Tampa Bay Rays 20 28 following questions. What team has Miami Marlins 300 1000 the best chance of winning the 2013 World Series? The worst chance? Best: Detroit Tigers 6 to 1 (OVER) Worst: Houston, Miami 1000 to 1 BUS/ST 350LECTURE WORKSHEET #11 page 2 (Use the Current column to answer the questions below). 2. a) What is the probability that the Yankees will not win the 2013 World Series? ") ") odds against Yankees winning 18 to 1ÊTÐ Yankees will not win) œ")" œ "* Þ b) What is the probability that the Pittsburgh Pirates will not win the 2013 World Series? %! %! odds against Pirates winning 40 to 1ÊTÐ Pirates will not win) œ%!" œ %" Þ 3. What is the probability that the St. Louis Cardinals will win the 2013 World Series? "" odds against Cardinals winning "# to 1 Ê T Ð Cardinals will win) œ"#" œ "$ Þ 4. A slick-talking bookie comments that since the odds against the Chicago Cubs are 400 to 1 and the odds against the Cleveland Indians are 100 to 1, the chances of the Chicago Cubs not winning are 4 times greater since 400œ‚ 100 4. Do you agree? (Find the probability that the Chicago Cubs will not win and compare to the probability that the Cleveland Indians will not win; %!! T ÐCubs do not win) œ%!!" œ !Þ**(& "!! T ÐIndians do not win) œ"!!" œ !Þ**!"Þ is the Chicago Cubs' probability 4 times greater than the Cleveland Indians'?) No..
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