THE WORLD BANK POLICY PLANNING AND RESEARCH STAFF

Public Disclosure Authorized Environment Department

Containing Thopical Deforestation A Review of Priority Areas for Technological

Public Disclosure Authorized and Policy Research

John Spears Public Disclosure Authorized

October 1988

Environment Department Working Paper No. 10 Public Disclosure Authorized

This paper has been prepared for internal use. The views and interpretations herein are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to any individual acting on thekr behalf. This paper has been prepared by John Spears of the Environment Department and Zormerly Forestry Adviser in the Agriculture and Rural Development Department of the World Bank. The author gratefully acknowledges comments on earlier drafts by many research scientists, polioy planners and aid agency colleagues (see acknowledgments in the Foreword).

Departmental Working Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank. They present preliminary and unpolished results of country analysis or research that is circulated to encourage discussion and comment; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Any maps that accompany the text have been prepared solely for the convenience of readers; the designations and presentation of material in them do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank, its affiliates, or its Board or member countries concerning the legal statai of any country, territory, city or area, or of the authorities thereof, or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or its national affiliation.

Because of the informality and to present the results of research with the least possible delay, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. ABSTRACT

This paper reviews promising sociological, technical and economic policy research topics that have potential to make a decisive contribution to containing tropical deforestation, ensuring the basic needs of the rural and urban poor for food, fuelvood, fodder and shelter, preserving the biological diversity of tropical rainforests, and maximizing the potential.o of forests to contribute a sustainable source of employment, income generation and export earnings. FOREWORD

Tropical Deforestation: Its Negative Impact

Deforestation threatens the sustainability of development.

Millions of people living in the tropics depend on forests for their survival. Forests and trees are a major source of food, fuel, fiber, fodder and other necessities.

Forests and farm trees improve the productivity of farming systems, thus contributing to food security. They stabilize watersheds and reduce erosion and flooding. They provide wood for energy, raw materials for construction, fiber products such as paper, and countless other goods and services needed to improve human welfare.

In r -e subtle ways, forests contribute to global welfare -- for example, pro,.ding the genetic material which now underlies many of our basic foods and generating employment opportunities. Tropical forests will become increasingly important in meeting the future needs of an epanding global population.

Despite the significant contributions made by forests and trees in the tropics, every year more than 11 million hectares are being destroyed. Investment in forest conservation and reforestation is lagging way behind the levels needed to sustain forest cover on adequate stock of farm trees and an assured supply of essential forest products.

The negative impacts of deforestation, forest degradation and loss of farm trees in the tropics are growing. They include:

o increasing soil degradation and desertification which lead to food insecurity;

o declining water quality, which affects human health;

o rising costs for hydropower and irrigation projects as dam reservoirs become filled with silt from erosion;

o hardship and misery for a rising population of people who cannot fAnd fuelwood and who cannot afford alternative fuels;

o declines in productive employment because wood, both as a raw material and a fuel for industry, is becoming scarce and expensive;

o declining foreign exchange earnings and increasing import bills for forest products as forests are depleted of commercial woods; - 2 -

o lose of biological diversity and the gene pool which has been so important in supplying the basic genetic material underlying many of our important food products and medicines;

0 the cutting and burning of tropical forests is contributing to atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases, thereby amplifying the problem of global warning.

The Tropical Forest Action Plan: Bellagio I

In mii 1987 the Rockefeller Foundation, World Bank, UNDP and FAQ jointly sponsored a meeting of 26 world leaders at the Rockefeller Bellagio Centre to discuss the issue of tropical deforestation. The meeting reviewed and endorsed a Tropical Forest Action Plan (TFAP) jointly sponsored by national governments and leading aid agencies that would address these issues. This TFAP focussed on five main aspects of the problemt

o Forestry's role in land use, in particular the potential of forests and farm trees to contribute to sustainable agriculture and to protection of soil and water resources.

o Conservation and increased supplies of fuelwood.

o Sustained forestry and forest industries management for production of essential wood nroducts (saw logs, wood based panels, pulp and paper).

o Protection of biological diversity in natural forests.

o Strengthening of forestry education, training, research and extension.

The TFAP called for at least a doubling of aid agency flows for forest conservation within a three year period and accelerated assistance for long range forest conservation strategy in the 56 developing countries that are worst affected by deforestation. International response has been positive. About 50 countries have requested assistance for strengthening of forest conservation plannirg. Aid community allocations for forest conservation have more than doubled. The TFAP has been adopted as a central theme of the work prsgram of FAO's Forest Department. Forest conservation strategy planning exercises have been completed in nine countries and are ongoing in a further 13. Many of the conclusions and recommendations of these studies are being incorporated into national development plans. NGOs and environmental agencies are playing an active role in trying to ensure that local concerns are adequately taken into account in sector policy dialogue. An interagency Forestry Advisers Group has been established to help developing countries focus on cross-cutting issues that could act as a constraint to implementation of the TFAP. -3-

Strengthening of Forestry Research: Bellagio II

At the 6th meeting of the Advisor's Group in late 1987 it was agreed to focus on the issue of the current weakness of the tropical forestry research base. Compared with agriculture, there exists in forestry nothing remotely similar to the CGIAR Centers that played such a decisive role in bringing about the 'Green Revolution' and making possible a significant increase in developing country food supplies.

By contrast, past forestry research has been spread over a very wide range of topics, often with little coordination. Partly because of the long term nature of forestry research, funding has been erratic. Many forest research projects with promising potential have been abandoned before they have had time to produce meaningful results.

A Second Rockefeller Foundation Forestry meeting will be held in November 1988 to review forestry research needs for underpinning the TFAP and institutional options for strengthening forestry research. This paper has been prepared as an input to that meeting. It reviews some of the more promising research technologies that could underpin the TFAP. It provides a starting point for a review of the institutional options for strengthening forestry research which are discussed in the main Bellagio II Conference Paper, 'A Global Research Strategy for Tropical Forests.,

Acknowledgments

The research priorities identified in this paper take into account the responses to a questionnaire on research needs sent by the Bellagio II Task Force to the directors of 85 mainly developing country research institutions. They also incorporate helpful suggestions from:

Jean-Paul Lanly and Lennart Ljungman (FAO); Bob Buckman and Oscar Fugalli (IUFRO); Gary Toenniessen (Rockefeller Foundation); Chuck Lankester (VNDP); Peter Haslevood (World Resources Institute); Hans Gregersen (Univ. of Minnesota); George Holmes (Bellagio Task Force Chairman); Matthijs Heering (Chairman, TFAP Forestry Advisers Group); Curtis Farrar (CGIAR); Larry Roche and John Hall (UCNW-Wales); Russell Mittermeier and Mark Plotkin (World Wildlife Fund); Norman Myers (UK); Koy Thomson (Friends of the Earth); Arvind K. Khare (India); Ronnie de Camino (Costa Rica); Louis Huguet, Rene Catinot and Jean Clement (France); Donald Pickering, Chip Rowe, Kathleen McNamara, Mikael Grut, Francois Wencelius, Jerry Warford, Ridley Nelson, Mary Dyson and Bill Magrath (World Bank); Raymond Keogh (Ireland); Hans Seip (Norway); Hakon Frelund (Denmark); Jeff Burley, John Palmer, and Michael Arnold (Oxford Forestry Institute); Jeff Sayer (IUCN); Katsuhiro Kotari (JICA, Japan); Michael Stewart (Canada); Achoka Aworri (Kenya); Peter Oram (IFPRI); Prof. M.H. El-Lakany (Egypt); Salleh Moh. Nor (Malaysia); Ralph Roberts (CIDA); Barin Ganguli (Asian Development Bank); Jozsef Micski (African Development Bank); Steve McGaughey (Inter-American - 4 -

Development Bank); Gordon Armstrong (EEC); Dominic Iyamabo (IUFRO- SPDC); Robert Winterbottom (IIED); Julian Evans (UK Forestry Commission); Peter Oram (IPPRI); Robert Blake and the Tropical Forest Working Group; Malcolm Hadley (UNESCO); Jack Sullivan (USAID); Udo Vollmer and Otto von Grotthus (Germany); Ron Kemp and Bill Howard (UK); Derek Webb (IDRC); Roger Leakey (ITE); Peter Greening (IFAR); David Okali (Nigeria); Mark Collins (CMC); Arnold Grayson (UK); Joseph Hulse (Canada); Keith Openshaw, Willem Floor and Paul Ryan (World Bank ESMAP Program).

John Spears Environment Department World Bank September 1988 TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SMAY...... i-xi

INTRODUCTION ...... 1

A. THE TROPICAL FOREST ACTION PLAN ...... 1

B. POLICY RESEARCH ...... 2

C. RESEARCH EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC RETURNS TO PAST

FORESTRY RESEARCH ...... 3

D. FORESTRY RESEARCH FOR MAINTAINING AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTIVITY AND SUSTAINABLE LAND-USE ...... 4

(a) Upland Watersheds ...... 4

(b) Arid Zone Land Use Management ...... 11

(c) Agro-Forestry Research ...... 16

Quantifying the Impact of Agro-Forestry Farming Systems .. 18

Trees and Pasture Production ...... 19

Alley Cropping ...... 0 ...... 20

Nitrogen Fixing Leguminous Trees ...... 21

Direct Seeding ...... 21

Shelterbelts ...... **...... 22

Farm Woodlots ...... 25

Economic Returns to Agroforestry Farming Systems ...... 26

E. FUELVOOD RESEARCH ...... 29

(a) Encouraging the Use of Substitute Fuels ...... 30

(b) Stove Research and Demand Management ...... 33

(c) Fuelvood Pricing Policy ...... 34

(d) Increasing Fuelvood Supply ...... 35 Increasing Fuelwood Production from Natural Forests ...... 35

Producing Fuelwood as a By-product of Agro-forestry ...... 35

Energy Plantations ...... 36

F. INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY AND FOREST INDUSTRIES RESEARCH ...... 39

Priority Areas for Industrial Forestry Research ...... 43

(a) Industrial Forest Policy Research ...... 43

(b) Village Level Forest Industries ...... 45

(c) Forest Products Utilization ...... 45

(d) Natural Forest Management ...... 46

(e) Plantation Forestry ...... 47

G. RESEARCH NEEDS FOR CONSERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY . 50

(a) Under-utilized Tropical Food Plants, Insects and Wildlife 50

(b) Preservation of Natural Forest Germ Plasm...... 51

(c) Policy Research for Saving the Tropical Rain Forest ..... 55

H. PRIORITIZATION OF RESEARCH: POTENTIAL GAINS FROM AN

EXPANDED RESEARCH PROGRAM ...... 58

..... o...... ANNEX I CONTAINING TROPICAL DEFORESTATION A REVIEW OF PRIORITY AREAS FOR TECHNOLOGICAL AND POLICY RESEARCH

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS This paper reviews promising research topics that have potential to make a decisive contribution to the TPAP objectives of containing tropical deforestation, ensuring the basic needs of the rural and urban poor for food, fuelvood, fodder and shelter, preserving the biological diversity of tropical rainforests, and maximizing the potential of forests to contribute a sustainable source of employment, income generation and export earnings.

It recommends concentration of research effort in five main areas:

o Forestry research aimed at sustaining food production, improved food security and protection of soil and water resources.

o Tree breeding and improvement programs.

o Utilization and forest products research.

o Conservation of natural forest ecosystems and biological diversity.

o Policy research aimed at addressing the underlying causes of deforestation and formulation of incentives that will encourage indigenous peoples involvement in tropical forest management and reforestation.

SUSTAINING FOOD PRODUCTION AND FOOD SECURITY

There is incontrovertible evidence that upland forests, tropical rainforests, savannah woodlands and farm trees play an important role in sustaining food production and in protecting the soil and water resources on which agriculture depends. Maintaining forest cover and ensuring an adequate stock of farm trees could sustain food production by many developing country farmers at significantly higher levels than would be the case if all forests and trees were to be destroyed. Agroforestry farming systems can help the developing world to achieve the 50 to 60 percent greater agricultural output that illbe required by the year 2000 to feed an additional 1.7 billion people. They are particularly relevant to reclamation of agricultural wastelands and maintaining the nutrient status of impoverished tropical soils. A substantial part of the additional fuelwood and tree fodder requirements of expanding human and livestock populations will be derived as a by-product of agroforestry.

Some of the more promising agriculture related forestry research technologies includes

o Nitrogen Fixing Leguminous Trees

Support for increased planting of leguminous nitrogen fixing trees such as Gliricidia, Sesbania, Casuarina, and Leucaena species can significantly contribute to maintenance of soil nitrogen, reduced dependence on artificial fertilizer, improved soil structure and improvement of crop yields. This is a key issue for thousands of small developing country farmers who either cannot afford to purchase fertilizer or who live in remote areas where it is not available.

The pioneering work of the Nitrogen Fixing Tree Association (NFTA), and in particular of Brewbaker (1987) and Dommergues (1987) has demonstrated the potential. What is needed is accelerated field trials of selected provenances of leguminous tree species with high nitrogen fixing potential. Molecular cloning and recombination techniques could lead to development of new strains of Rhizobium and Frankia (mycorrhizal fungi that stimulate nodule formation and nitrogen fixation).

o Alley Cropping

Emerging agroforestry technologies such as 'alley cropping'2 have the potential to maintain food crop production whilst sinultaneously contributing to maintenance of soil structure, fuelwood and fodder supply.

21 A farming system that combines growing of agriculture food crops interspersed with hedges of trees that are regularly pruned. Tree leaves are used as a green manure to mulch and to protect soil and increase nutrient status. The system ensures crop and soil protection as well as a sustainable source of fuelwood and tree fodder. The advantages of alley cropping technology have been demonstrated by the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA). It has particular relevance for tropical rainforest lands that are under pressure for increased agricultural settlement (e.g., Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire and Indonesia). Sanchez (1984) and Lal (1988) have identified specific research needs. Uncertainties that urgently need further field scale research include choice of appropriate tree species, quantification of the economic trade-off between alley cropping and other farming systems, and incentives to stimulate rapid farmer adoption of this technology. o Direct Seeding

Direct seeding (as opposed to more traditional dependence on raising of polythene potted stock in centralized tree nurseries) has the potential in appropriate ecological situations, to decrease planting costs at least five-fold and to facilitate rapid spread of low-cost reforestation in remoter rural areas. This is a particularly relevant technology for making an early and significant contribution to on farm fuelwood/fodder needs and to reclamation of degraded wastelands and watersheds. Also for accelerating the adoption of agroforestry. See the Beijer Institute's study of Western Kenya experience (1984) and National Academy of Sciences review of-potential for aerial reseeding (1982). Research needs include provenance selection, seed collection, storage and pelletisation techniques, particularly of leguminous multi-purpose species. o Shelterbelts

Introduction of appropriately spaced tree shelterbelts can increase crop yields by some 15 to 20 percent as well as providing a source of essential fodder and fuelwood. This is of special importance for arid zone environments (see Niger Majia Valley and Egyptian experience described by El-Lakany, 1987).

Research needs have been suggested by Anderson (1987). Special emphasis needs to be directed towards improved understanding of the economic costs and benefits of tree shelterbelts and of incentives to encourage more widespread shelterbelt planting. - iv -

o Fodder Trees

Protection and improved management of upland fodder trees as researched by Singh (1982), Panday (1982) and Fleming (1983) could at least double fodder tree yields over the coming decade. This is an issue of vital concern to several million people living in upland watersheds of the Himalayan region where sustainable farming systems depend to a very high degree on animal derived manure. Research priorities for increased fodder production have been reviewed by Panday. There are striking differences in the productivity of different fodder tree species. Provenance selection and improved harvesting systems for existing fodder trees are two of the more important areas for research.

o Increasing Productivity of Arid Zone Rangelands

Maintaining'an adequate cover of savannah woodland trees can ensure between a 30 and 60 percent increase in grass and protein production, significantly raise the carrying capacity of rangelands and contribute to livestock weight gain, Enriques (1983), Bill (1977), Pratchell (1988), and Farnsworth (1976). Research needs include optimization of tree/pasture cover, choice of appropriate browse and tree fodder species and minimization of alleopathic effects.

o Pollarding and Coppicing of on-farm Trees

Pollarding,3 coppicing and similar on-farm tree management systems can increase biomass productivity and significantly reduce the number of trees ;equired to sustain a family's essential fuelvood requirements (Fishvick (1979). To date there has been almost no systematic research into on-farm tree harvesting and management practices.

3/ A management system that lops off the top of vigorously growing trees and encourages sprouting of branches that are theu periodically lopped for fuelwood or fodder. o Close Espacement Biomass Planting As demonstrated by Zsuffa (1985), closely spaced planting of fuelvood trees can shorten rotations and has the potential for at least a three-fold increase in short-term availability of biomass. Research issues relate to nutrient depletion and economic trade-offs between closer and more widely spaced planting along the lines of recent work by Ryan (1988). o Increasing Fuelwood Output from Natural Forests Protection and management via appropriate timing of harvesting, early burning and improved lopping techniques has the potential to double fuelvood yield in the natural savanna woodlands of Africa, Openshaw (1985), Winterbottom and Hazlewood (1986). Such management practices need to be systematically tested in different ecological zones as recommended'by IUFRO, (1986). o Low-cost Soil Conservation Techniques Vigorous research into application of low cost soil conservation methods for upland areas such as the planting of Vetiver grass (Vetivaria Zizoides) Grimshaw et.al. (1987) has the potential for major reductions in the costs of upland soil conservation and reclamation measures. o Incentives for Rehabilitation of Degraded Watersheds The work of researchers such as Pereira (1972), Achlil (1984), Trustrum (1983), and Viersum (1984), has clearly demonstrated the potential for forests in upland catchments to regulate water flow, to reduce the risk of land slides, to reduce sedimentation and disruption of downstream water flow. Applied socio-economic policy research is necessary to test incentives which can lead to more effective involvement of local people in watershed management, de Camino (1987). Such research has major implications for reclamation of some 150 million hectares of degraded tropical-watersheds. - vi -

TREE BREEDING AND IMPROVEMENT PROGRAMS

Over the course of several centuries, plant selection, breeding and improvement in agriculture has raised the potential for biomass yields close to the upper biological limits of potential productivity (from less than 5 to over 20 tons of dry biomass per hectare per year). By contrast, tree selection breeding and improvement programs are still in their infancy. Because of this it is still possible to achieve spectacular gains in biomass output simply through provenance selection and development of improved seed strains.

Vegetative propagation and cloning technology has demonstrated the potential for at least doubling yields by application of root hormone to leaf bud material from superior trees and by use of grafting techniques. Tissue culture, while still not widely used, is another emerging and promising area for ensuring genetically improved strains of fast growing species.

Tree breeding and improvement research is the key to ensuring supplies of improved seed or tree planting stock for more productive agroforestry, fuelwood, cash crop tree farming, and industrial reforestation programs. At least a doubling in yield of the more important tree species within a decade is a reasonable target. Several examples of successful tree breeding and improvement programs that have already achieved this can be identified:

Provenance Trials

o Provenance trials of *Eucalyptus camaldulensis' in Nigeria have demonstrated more than a three-fold difference in yield between the slowest growing provenances (5 cubic meters per hectare per annum) and the fastest (17 cubic meters per hectare per annum). (FAO 1979).

o In the Congo and Brazil, the yield of Etcalyptus plantations has been increased by 80 percent by selection of the best seed sources (Chaperon 1978, Brune and Zobel 1981).

o An FAO project on genetic resources of the arid zones covering eight countries collected different provenances of mainly Acacia and Prosopis species over the period 1980-87. A total of 280 well documented provenances were collected and seed distributed for field testing. Significant gains in yield are being recorded. * vii -

a The establishment of seed banks of selected provenances especially of indigenous species is already being undertaken, by for example, Centre Technique Forestier Tropicale (CTFT) in Africa, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Australia and the Oxford Forestry Institute (OFI). Significant yield increases have been achieved.

Vegetative Propagation

o Use of Vegetative propagation technologies has enabled the Aracruz Company in Brazil to raise the productivity of its industrial plantations from an average of 25 to more than 50 cubic meters per hectare within a 10-year period. Similar results were demonstrated by CTFT working in Congo PR with Eucalyptus species.

o Leakey of the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (1987) has demonstrated very promising results by vegetative propagation of more valuable West African tropical hardwoods (e.g., Triplochiton and Terminalia species) in Cameroons.

o Similar work is being undertaken by the Sabah Softwoods Company in Malaysia working with Gmelina arborea.

Tissue Culture

o The use of tissue culture can shorten the time necessary to reproduce a large stock of planting material with desirable yield potential or disease resistance characteristics. The possibilities of tissue culture of forest tree species have been reviewed by Bonga and Durzan (1982). The cost of plantlets and the sophistication of the technique make it unlikely in the immediate future to replace the use of cuttings for large-scale reforestation in tropical areas. Its nearer-term use is likely to be in establishing *super- tree* orchards to produce seeds or cuttings. Technology is fast developing and further work on embryogenesis could conceivably lead to significant reductions in cost and a break through in the scope for wider application of this technology. Brown and Sommer (1982). -viii

UTILIZATION AND FOREST PRODUCTS RESEARCH

A key to improving the productivity of developing country forests is to make better use of what already exists. Typically, logging operations in the West Africa region or in the Latin American Amazon depend to a high degree on some 5 to 10 more valuable species out of the 300 or more that exist in the natural forest. Forest products research has a vital role to play in widening the range of species that can be utilized. It can help ensure an adequate supply of raw material and improved efficiency for small-scale village forest industries that account for a very significant proportion of rural employment and incomes. Effective utilization of wood (through preservation techniques or through improved processing technology). can more than triple the life of fence posts, timber buildings, etc. Many of the forest products technologies that have been pioneered by developed country research institutions could be readily transferred to the tropics.

Some of the more promising forest products research experiences with potential for wider replication includes

Timber Utilization and Grading

o Timber utilization and timber grading research such as that carried out in Malaysia made it possible within a period of 15 years to increase the number of species in commercial use from 100 to more than 600 (Salleh Mohd. Nor 1988). Similar progress in species utilization has been recorded in Costa Rica and other countries.

o Market research and promotion of new species is especially important. For example, ten years ago, rubber wood was unknown as a commercial species in Malaysia. Research on species properties, processing, protection and utilization opened up new markets. As a result Halaysia now exports over 250,000 cubic meters of rubber wood with a value in excess of US$10 million a year. Use of Wood Wastes

o Research aimed at encouraging a shift from solid timber to reconstituted wood has enabled the U.S. timber industry to make effective use of wood waste and to more than double recovery of utilizable wood. Bengsten (1984), demonstrated economic rates of return of about 20 percent for substitution of solid timber by particle board. Several of the wood waste utilization technologies that are now in widespread use in the developed countries are appropriate for rapid adoption by developing countries. * isx*

Timber Ensineering

o In Kenya, Keen (1969) has demonstrated the potential of improved wood engineering (use of laminated beams based on utilization of small size waste timber) greatly to extend the possibilities for timber based buildings.

Timber Preservation

o In the hot, wet tropics, preservation treatment that increases the life of a simple wooden house from 5 to 10 years could reduce by half a villager's time spent on building and rebuilding, Levy (1982).

CONSERVATION OF NATURAL FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

Tropical forests produce an extraordinarily wide range of products essential to human survival, health and trade. In addition to industrial wood, natural forests (particularly tropical rainforests) provide a myriad of other useful products such as essential foods, oils, ums, latexes, resins, tannins, steroids, waxes, fibers and pharmaceutical products. More than 50 percent of modern medicines come from the natural world and a large proportion of these from tropical forest plants. In Indonesia, research has revealed that many food plants now taken for granted (including vegetables, fruits, nuts, edible oils, spices and flavorings) are derived from the tropical forests. Non-wood products brought in US$120 million in 1982. Most of the associated harvesting and production activity involved employment in local economies whereas much of Indonesia's industrial timber export value is retained by timber companies.

Specific examples of research topics that merit early replication and increased support includes

Tropical Forest Plant Foods

o The Amazon Basin work of Plotkin (1988) has documented the importance of ethnobotanical research to improve knowledge of the potential of tropical forest plant based foods, particularly for the subsistence and medicinal needs of forest dwelling tribal peoples. For example, research by Dourojeani (1978) concluded that in the Ucayali region of the Peruvian Amazon, some 85 percent of annual protein came from wild game and fish. Similar research work by Grivetti (1979), Okafor (1980) and Becker (1986) has documented the wide range of forest based plant foods used in Africa. Hedicinal Products

o Hyers (1984), has made a case for increased research into the medicinal properties of tropical forest plants suggesting that some 1,400 tropical forest species may have potential anti-cancer properties. The most well-known is a Madagascar plant the 'Rosy Periwinkle' from which is derived a drug used for the treatment of leukemia. Sales of the drug exceed US$100 million per year world wide. Sundaresh (1982) has reviewed the potential of medicinal plants in India.

Tropical Forest Germ Plasm

o Smith, Plucknet and Williams (1987) have reviewed the extent to which many important agricultural crops depend on forest derived germ plasm for broadening their genetic base, maintaining yields and enhancing their capacity for resistance to insect pests and fungal diseases. They point out the need for an an all-out research effort to identify, preserve and enhance natural forest derived germ plasm of commercially important agricultural crops such as coffee, cocoa, oil palm, rubber.

Unidentified Plants and Insects

o Scientific research could conceivably identify potential uses for currently under-utilized or unidentified plants and insects such as the Cameroon weevil Elaeidobius Kamerunius which when introduced to Malaysia, led to a more than 12 percent increase in fruiting of oil palm and more than US$50 million per annum increase in foreign exchange earnings. Goodland (1985) and Salleh Mohd. Nor (1988).

POLICY RESEARCH

Many of the policy initiatives for containing tropical deforestation will have to come frons outside the forestry sector, Spears and Ayensu, (1984). Past policy research aimed at developing a better understanding of the linkages between forestry and other sectors and into economic and/or other policy reforms that could help to reduce pressure on natural forests has been weak. Policy reforms are needed to address fundamental issues such as inequitable land tenure, inappropriate timber taxation, concession and fiscal incentive policies.

Policy and particularly sociological research is of fundamental importance to improved understanding of the appropriate socioeconomic . framework that needs to be put in place before some of the more promising research technology described in this paper could be applied in practice. Examples of key policy research topics that have potential for a high pay-off includes

Land Tenure

a Research into alternative land tenure systems can provide greater security of tenure for shifting cultivators and incentive for reforestation of agricultural wastelands or eroded upland watersheds. For example, policy research, coupled with land consolidation and titling programs has been a key factor in accelerated reforestation in the Philippines under the PICOP program. In West Bengal and Gujarat States in India, security of title has provided a powerful incentive for reforestation of under-utilized agricultural wastelands.

Incentives to People Involvement in Forest Conservation and Management

o Sociological and economic research is needed to develop a better understanding of the incentives that could encourage peoples involvement in forest management and/or reforestation. Experimental approaches for encouraging charcoal *user groups* to take over management responsibility for areas of savanna woodland in Niger have been suggested by Floor (1985). In Nepal the government is experimenting with allocation of government owned forest lands to individual panchyats. Encouraging results have been described by Campbell (1983).

Timber and Fuelwood Pricing Policy

o Research by Repetto (1988) of the World Resources Institute, analyzed the losses incurred by tropical hardwood exporting countries such.as Indonesia, Philippines and Ghana, in which timber stumpage taxes fail to capture the economic value of the resource. Such research has provided a basis for in- country policy dialogue and compelling economic arguments for raising the level of timber stumpage prices. Similar pricing policy interventions are critical to more effective conservation and use of fuelwood resources as recently reviewed by Nelson (1988) in Sudan. - xit -

Inappropriate Fiscal Incentives

o Policy research by MUhar (1988) has reviewed policy reform options for reducing pressure on forests in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically he identified the need for phasing out of fiscal incentives for livestock projects; a moratorium on use of fiscal incentive funds for development of pig iron projects in the greater Carajas region (that would destroy large areas of forest for charcoal production); refusal to grant land titles to speculators in forest lands; allocation of longer-term concessions to individuals or producer associations undertaking environmentally sound extractive activities in designated areas (e.g., rubber tapping); increased effort to improve administration and collection of taxes that could have beneficial effects on land use.

Policy research along the above lines, if followed up by intensive policy dialogue and government commitment to appropriate policy reforms, could make a decisive contribution to saving not only the Amazon basin forests but also the tropical rainforests of Africa and Asia. CONTAINING TROPICAL DEFORESTATION A REVIEW OF PRIORITY AREAS FOR TECHNOLOGICAL AND POLICY RESEARCH

INTRODUCTION

A. THE TROPICAL FOREST ACTION PLAN 1. The Tropical Forest Action Plan presented to the Bellagio I Conference examined 5 main issuess

o Forestry's role in land-use, in particular the potential of forests and farm trees to contribute to sustainable agriculture, and to protection of soil and water resources.

o Conservation and increased supply of fuelvood.

o Sustained forestry and forest industries management for production of essential industrial wood products (saw logs, wood-based panels, pulp and paper), either for domestic use or export.

o Protection of biological diversity in natural forests (with special reference to tropical rainforests).

o Strengthening of forestry education, training, research and extension institutions.

2. Sections D-G of this paper discuss research needs for the first four of the above listed areas. They cite examples of more promising technologies that could contribute to forest conservation and human needs. Options for strengthening research institutions are not discussed since they are reviewed in the main Bellagio Conference document.

3. The need for intensified research into possible linkages between deforestation and climate change was not mentioned in the TFAP and is therefore not dealt with in this paper. However, it is clearly an issue of mounting global concern and should be taken into consideration as part of any follow-up on research priorities beyond the forthcoming Bellagio meeting. - 2 -

4. The Paper concludes with a brief overview of the potential gains from increased investment in the five main research areas that the Bellagio Task Force recommends as having greatest immediate potential for containing tropical deforestation; ensuring the basic needs of the rural and urban poor for food, fuelwood, fodder and shelter preserving the biological diversity of tropical rainforests; and, maximizing the potential of forests to contribute a sustainable source of employment, income generation and export earnings.

S. Those 5 research areas are:

o Agro-forestry. 1

o Natural forest conservation and management.

o Tree breeding and improvement.

o Utilization/forest products research.

o Socio-economic policy research.

B. POLICY RESEARCH

6. Research needs relating to forestry's role in sustainable land- use, (including agroforestry) and also for fuelvood, and forest industry research have been extensively reviewed in rqcent years, e.g., World Bank/FAO (1981); CTFT/EEC (1986); OFI (1986); FAO (1987).

7. Less well described have been priority areas for intensified sociological and economic policy research, particularly relating to the linkages between forestry, agriculture, energy, industrial and other sectors. Many of the solutions for containing tropical deforestation will have to come from outside the forestry sector (Spears and Ayensu, 1984). Past policy research aimed at developing a better understanding of the linkages between forestry and other sectors and into economic and/or other policy reforms that could help to reduce pressure on natural forests has been weak. Policy reforms that address issues such as inequitable land tenure, inappropriate taxation, timber concession and fiscal incentive policies will be the key to saving what remains of the world's tropical forests. This paper gives special emphasis to this topic.

11 Interpreted in the broad sense to incorporate the role of forests in relation to watersheds and arid zone land use and their contribution to fuelwood/fodder needs. - 3-

C. RESEARCH EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC RETURNS TO PAST FORESTRY RESEARCH

8. Expenditure on forestry research in the tropical regions is currently in the order of magnitude of only US$200 million a year. As two points of comparison, the U.S. Forest Service alone spent US$128 million on research in 1981; and total expenditure on agricultural research in developing countries was around US$2,245 million. Developing countries accounted for only 12 percent of the total expenditure on forestry research worldwide in 1981.

9. In 1986, international donors provided some US$46 million of assistance for forestry research. About 20-25 percent of the total expenditure on forestry research in developing countries is funded by international donors as compared to about 40 percent in agriculture (P. Oram, personal communication). The percentage of foreign aid spent on research is about 10 percent of the total spent on agriculture whereas only 5 percent of total bilateral and multilateral assistance for forestry is used for research.

10. A better perspective on past levels of expenditure on forestry research in developing countries can be gained by looking at such expenditure as a percent of the value of production of forest products. These percentages for forestry research are in the 0.05 to 0.12 percent range and are considerably below the percentages for agriculture. Also, the percentages in developing countries are about 5 times lower than the comparable percentages for forestry research in developed countries. Clearly, investment in forestry research in developing countries is very low in comparison with the value of goods and services flowing from the forestry sector.

11. A brief examination of past forestry research experience irovides reassurance that increased investment in research has the potential to pay handsome returns. Studies of returns to investment in forestry and forest products research indicate average real economic rates of return in the 9 to 111 percent range. (Gregersen 1988).

12. The following are a few specific examples of benefits from past forestry research in developing countries.

- Genetic improvement research over the past 15 years in Brazil has resulted in Eucalyptus yields that have doubled from 30 to 60 cubic meters per hectare per year. (WRI 1985).

- Research in Malaysia has permitted that country to increase the number of species it uses commercially from 100 to more than 600 and contributed in a major way to the five-fold increase in rubber yields achieved since 1920. (Salleh Mohd. Nor 1988). -4-

- Provenance studies of two species of Central American pines (Pinus caribaea and P. cocarpa indicates that knowledge is already sufficient to increase productivity of these two planted pines by 30 percent. (071 1985).

13. Many other similar examples could be cited.

D. FORESTRY RESEARCH FOR MAINTAINING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SUSTAINABLE LAND-USE

(a) Upland Watersheds

14. The Tropical Forest Action Plan identified some 32 developing countries containing large areas of degraded upland watersheds. These cover about 160 million hectares worldwide. The lives of some 400 million farmers living downstream are being adversely affected by soil erosion, sedimentation and/or periodic flooding, exacerbated by wholesale removal of upland vegetation and increasing population pressure on fragile soils.

15. The arguments for and against retaining forests as a catchment cover and the likely impact of vegetation change in upland catchments have been well researched by Pereira (1972), by Hamilton and King (1983) and others.

Table 1

1000 * *

15A40 * *r -ein

e 44* * p DMINANT LAND USE-

*Greesula * Scrub Forest

0 100 200 300 400 900 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 t0 MEAN ANNUAL ANOW (se Source: FAO 1977 -5-

16. The basic relationships summarixe4 in Table 1 above have been well established over a wide variet, of ecological zones and altitudes. Future research should focus more on the socio-economic, incentive and technical options that will provide incentives for involvement of upland peoples in watershed management. Also on the development of low-cost technical solutions for achieving effective soil conservation. Government land use and incentive policies are needed to discourage population encroachment on to very steep slopes. Failure to achieve these objectives leads inevitably to increasing human and livestock population pressure, decreasing farm size and expansion of the agricultural area by further felling of forests on steep fragile uplands.

17. Policy research such as that carried out by Singh, Panday and Tiwari (1984) in Inaia can help to develop a better understanding of the interdependency of forestry, agriculture and energy in upland watersheds. (See Table 2).

Table 2

DEPENDENCY OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM ON FOREST DERIVED ENERGY INPUTS

EHURPATAL VILLAGE

GJ/YEAR

Energy Inputs Xhurpatal (population 800) 602 Vegetables, 40Z Wheat Paddy

Labor (Human) 460 Labor (Bullocks) 91 Seed 636 Manure 13328 Purchased feed 159 Purchased fertilizer 4160

TOTAL 18834

Source: "Man and Forests - A Central Himalayan Case Study* J.S. Singh, Uma Pandey, A.K. Tivari, 'Ambio' 1983. -6-

Is. This particular piece of research helped to quantify the important role that forest grazing and tree fodder play in sustaining the farming systems in two Himalayan villages. In, Khurpatal for example, it was concluded that the village required access to about 1080 ha of forest grazing land managed on a sustainable basis to ensura production of the animal manure that contributes some 70 percent of the energy input into the farming system plus the villagers requirements of fuelvood. In practice the village has secure access to less than 270 ha of forest. This is resulting in rapid destruction of the forests around the village with negative consequences for sustaining agricultural output and essential food requirements.

19. This phenomenon is being repeated throughout the Himalayan region and its implications have been graphically highlighted by Shah 1982. (See Chart 1). Improved understanding of such relationships provides the starting point for interventions, that could help to reduce pressure on the forest by, for example, encouraging stall feeding, increased on farm fodder production and/or intensifying production of forest rangelands through reseeding or changing fodder tree harvesting and managerial practices. These solutions are being tested in a systematic way in the Phewa Tal catchment area in Nepal for example with encouraging results WRI (1985), Fleming (1983).

Chart 1

PROJECTED CHANGES IN POPULATION, CATTLE UNITS, FOREST AND GRASS STOCKS IN THE HIMALAYAS

38 < 0 0 *75

M 4S .0

YEA 34S 4S

0

source: Shah, 1982. -7-

20. Key areas for technical forestry research in upland watersheds include increasing productivity of multipurpose tree species, which, in addition to helping to contain soil erosion, also simultaneously produce fodder, fuelwood and saleable products such as building poles that generate cash income. The possible range of fodder species has been reviewed by Singh (1982) and Panday (1982). The total digestible nutrient (TDN) content of the commonly used fodder tree species in the Himalayan region ranges from an annual yield of 2000 kgs of TDN to over 20,000 kgs per tree.

Table 3

NEPAL

Annual Dry Matter (DM) Production Potential of Some Highland Fodder Tree Species

Species Annual production of DM per ha (300-400 trees) per tree kg kg

Albizzia stipulata 2000 5 - 7 Quercus semecarpifolia 12400 30 - 40 Symplocos paniculata 20700 50 - 70

Sources K. Panday, (1982)

21. Substantial gains could be achieved by concentrating research on increasing productivity of fodder tree species which have the potential for higher levels of (TDN) output.

22. As Fleming (1983) has demonstrated improved harvesting practices such as clean cutting (with a sickle instead of an axe), timing and periodicity of cutting and reforestation with fast growing leguminous species can significantly increase fodder yield and lengthen the life of fodder trees (Table 4).

23. Since fodder trees are so crucial to the livelihood and survival of upland communities why is it that so little systematic research effort has been directed towards increasing their productivity? Part of the explanation is that foresters have been more interested in research that would lead to increased timber production whilst agricultural research has concentrated on food crops. Fodder tree research has simply slipped between the cracks. Table 4

EFFECT OF MANAGEMENT ON FODDER YIELDS

FROM FOREST AND GRAZING LAND IN NEPAL (Kg/Ha/Yr) Unmanaged Managed

Grassland 1,200 6,000

Forest-land 3,000 6,000

Scrub-land 2,000 --

Plantation -- 2,500

Sources Fleming (1983) *Pheva Tal Catchment Management Program: Benefits and Costs of Forestry and Soil Conservation in Nepal'.

24. Research priorities have been suggested by Panday (1982). They include, for examples site requirements; ecological range; propagation and regeneration techniques; diseases and parasites; competition with agricultural cropes fodder tree orchards; chemical composition of tree fodder; storage techniques; nutrient recycling; incentives for community involvement.

25. Another high watershed research priority is into more cost effective soil conservation techniques. Reforestation is not the only way to achieve effective revegetation of degraded watersheds. For example, planting of Vetiver grass (Vetivaria zizanoides) in India has proven to be a low cost solution for upland watershed rehabilitation with multiple benefits. Grimshaw et al (1987). -9-

Table 5 UNIT COSTS OF STRUCTURAL VERSUS VEGETATIVE SOIL

CONSERVATION MEASURES Country Cost ($1h& - 1983)

Bench Terraces India 526 China 594 Indonesia 355

Vetiver Grass Contour Hedgerows India 50

Sources World Bank Staff Estimates.

26. Researchers have developed a method of predicting the influence of trees upon landslides (Hawley 1988). Reforestation can reduce shallow soil landaliding by at least 70 percent. Trustrum et a1. (1984) showed that the occurrence of landslides dramatically increased when forest areas were converted to pastures; over 60 percent of the converted areas had landslides. Productivity on these landslide areas was reduced by 20 to 30 .percent for over 80 years following the landslides. This research did not follow the effects downstream--although researcirelsewhere suggests that landslides that occur into channels are major sources of sediment to downstream areas.

27. Achlil (1984) reports 48 percent. 20 percent and 17 percent reductions in peak monthly runoff, annual sediment transport, and peak monthly sediment transport, respectively, caused by improved farming, terracing and tree planting in the Solo watershed on Java, Indonesia.

28. Viersum (1984) studied surface erosion rates under different agroforestry systems in Java, Indonesia. Several different systems were studied and corresponding erosion rates were measured. This research leads to a better understanding of the role of trees, in combination with crops, in protecting the soil. The need for soil surface management was recommended--trees without soil conservation measures beneath them will not adequately control erosion. This research provides a valuable lesson concerning the effectiveness of trees and the need for compreheniive management. - 10 -

29. Gregersen, and Magrath (1988) have pointed out the urgent need for intensified policy and economic research into case studies of effective programs where watershed management practices have been successfully introduced and sustained, (e.g., the Phewa Tal experience). The purpose should be to illustrate how social, economic and political factors can be integrated with technical solutions to improve the sustainability of land and water use in upland environments. (See Chart 2). Also to examine how appropriate government policies can influence sustainable land use, help in the creation of off-farm employment and encourage outward migration of people into less fragile environments. A review of possible approaches has been proposed by FAO (Gregersen et al 1987). FAO has also published an overview of possible incentive mechanisms for encouraging sustainable land use by upland dwellers (de Camino 1987).

Chart 2

IMPACTS OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

DIAECT OUTPUTS - -- * LAND USE FRON LAND USE: lood. taer, tl1

It WATERSitM HANAGEN T PRACTICIS AND PRINCIPLES are applied, thma th ee appotunatses tes

IKCREA$E INPROM IIIPROtW

STABILITY PATTUNIVOLUM OUALITY Ie.auceCNANGES-ENttagNMETWAL

seemsmentatioo

etteqctsac i. ansen t aee0n0 ifaks*tw tur. georute gow th reI I"acrease stceello due retscitical leow Io" perteft

hye loreen Incen tdste rae iss n styroowt trreae = 11eton "Iter tash Increase potable 1potentiat 1Wdestist at y "Wu4l"es prodwclon lvet SU101ly

14enta aetetatr e seceed ceop Vnd laccessed Incease taweeed flood flod4Wo-3 tvetock &falustrialt tash // refatavst 3 woldtiep odut Shspped product prodluction/hest W4t health

Source: Gregersen et.al. 1987 - 11 -

30. Understanding the interaction between migration, and environmental degradation is a key research problem. Should governments respond to demand for land via sponsored resettlement programs such as the Indonesian transmigration and Nepal Terai Settlement, or should more subtle support be given for spontaneous self-financed migration? What policy reforms and incentives are most crucial for securing farmer or village cooperation in upland soil conservation and reforestation programs? What emphasis should be given to diversifying the rural economy in situ via small scale industry promotion versus promoting out migration from rural areas? How can transport projects best be designed to promote development and environmental improvement? These are some of the unanswered socio-economic policy research issues.

(b) Arid Zone Land Use Management

31. Desertification is an issue of increasing environmental concern. For example about 60 percent of Africa's rangelands are reported to be desertified. The lives of some 80 million people are affected.

32. The significance of trees and woody shrubs to the socio-economic survival of people living in arid zones has been well described by Von Maydell (1987). Le Houerou (1987) has summarized the significance of trees and woody shrubs as a source of dry weatherilivestock feed. For example, they account for about one-third of the dry weather feed of livestock in the Sahel/Sudanian Zone. Yet as the FA0/GEMS's study (1982) concluded the savanna woodlands of Africa and elsewhere are currently being over cut at the rate of some 4 million hectares a year. Le HouetoW's (1987) comparison of &erial photo*raph taken at 20 year intervals provided evidence for a substantial decline of tree and shrub cover in Chad, Sudan, Niger, Mali, Burkina Paso, Senegal, Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. The decline has been of the order of 20-35 per cent between 1954 and 1975 and has accelerated since the early 1980s.

33. Whilst some of this savanna deforestation constitutes a logical shift in land use to more productive agricultural systems, problems arise when excessive deforestation, usually triggered by rising demands for fuelwood, charcoal and tree fodder, removes all the trees from the landscape. The interlinkages between forestry, agriculture, energy and the negative impact of excessive deforestation in Ethiopia are summarized in Chart 3 and have been discussed by Newcombe (1984). PATTERN OF DETERIORATION IN ETHIOPIAN AGROECOSYS~M

seach Dung Rmoved as Fuegodk~ en.a ec faseecove Remvd k Fn oe &Clopna9rato

D·~ COC~No1

- ~AtmoWpedesNgen Retet r •

46*,simnetNubi~nc&

~uu Rich T~po OS Moin Nut~n C~ce CYCLE NO. 2 oece N&o~d& Ron

GumaopRo

for Ruiood Subst~t Wodd8~n--5d3 - 13 -

34. As Sandford and Wangari (1985) suggest - retention of a light cover of savanna woodland in arid zone environments helps to reduce the impact of wind velocity on soil erosion, to sustain microbiological soil formation activity and to lower air and soil temperature. Research carried out in Australia by Lynch (1976) and in the USA by Farnsworth (1976) suggests that tree shade for livestock positively affects live- weight gain.

Table 6

IMPACT OF SHELTERBELT ON LIVESTOCK YIELDS (U.S.A. Missouri)

Herd was divided into two: cattle with access to shelter gained 676 gm/days without shelter 472 gm/day.

In a dairy experiment high temperatures depressed milk yields. Milk yield increased when cattle had access to shade.

Sources Farnsworth (1976).

35. However little systematic research has been carried out on how to optimize the ratio of shade trees to pasture or into the alleopathic effects of some tree species on adjacent vegetation. Poore (FAO 1985). In some circumstances it is possible that trees reduce pasture productivity. Conant (1982), for example, found that the Simbol area in the Pokot District of Kenya which had been effectively closed due to armed raiding became impenetrable bush, effectively removing it from human use.

36. Technical ways to increase the productivity of savanna woodlands have been demonstrated in experimental work carried out in the Gussolbedi Forest of Niger (Winterbottom and Hazlewood 1987) where simple management techniques such as early burning, careful timing of lopping of branches and direct seeding of canopy gaps succeeded in doubling per hectare fuelwood productivity. The potential of improved savanna natural forest management to contribute to tree fodder and fuelvood needs in Sudan has been estimated by Openshaw (World Bank, 1986).

37. Shortening of rotation age and improved management has the potential to double fuelwood yields in the savanna zone (average rainfall 600-900m). ¢²« 7

Аw³аϲ 11 оо´1аа´ l ´а¸²l аll о²а« а¸ Mnw1s11 ¸ а« crti Ио²i ааl Rot.atio a Possi l ² Ret ²tiaº IRa 1 аа11 ¢Ãр² wь´²³ о³i sti аа i t1 i ²prowd ( ¡¸³³²nt) oi LAi ²prowd eoaditla ºt ²ааs ϲ²²nt 1 £³s. ²²аа0²²¼ 4 YI' ² . £² ²S/11а %Otal i I 1 ² ²8J Аа tOtral i 1 I аа

АрР¼ Å. 400 В¼²Аlаа´² О. А-1.1 4.94 1.1 4.40 60 10 t+ 400- АОО о² niatsli ¸ v¼ ¼ 0.7-1.6 8.60 4.4 11. А0 0 4ID ±00 -60 Savanaa ²оо´l ²а´² 1.3-4.6 Z.10 4.4 6.16 70 46 а00-1000 Ni ³аi аt ²ll ¸ vааа² Z.8- ±. ± 0.84 8. ± 1.TZ 70 46

TOTAL 1.2 11.9 А 2.8 3.2 ¢

J Еа³1 à l ¸¼ i ао, ¸ 1²аlw t ²111 ар, ²ррÎ р³l ²t ² isiay о1Г l ¸ ³w²ti аÃ

Sе¸³еоº Ор¸ ¸hа². wе³l ´ 8aak 8¸´аа Rо³²st ³Ã S²еl о³ tlwi ¸ (1 t ±) - 15 -

38. The need is for replication of research effort in different forest ecological zones along the lines of a recent proposal by IUFRO's Special Progra for Developing Countries (1986) for setting up a savanna natural forest management research network in 16 countries of the Sahel Sudanian Zone.

39. : Burley, (1986) and Dommergues, (1987) have emphasized the need more'vigorously to research the role that biotechnology could play in increasing the yield of arid zone species (e.g.. through modem techniques of cellular and sub-cellular engineering such as pens splicing, recombinate, DNA cloning, protein engineering and nitrogen fixation). Gorse (World Bank, 1985) has suggested the need for a special research center in West Africa to focus on biotechnology research.

40. Felker (1986) has documented the case for increased emphasis on clonal research and vegetative propagation. Most Acacias and probably all Prosovis species are obligately out-crossed. As a result, tress will not breed true and seed and clonal propagation and traditional rooting of cuttings should be examined. Rooting of stem cuttings is difficult for Prosopis. To achieve success for large-scale plantings, a thorough evaluaticn will be required of rooting methods including evaluation of mist, atomized fogging. and tout humidification devices, screening trials of hormone mixtures, evaluation of out-of-doors and greenhouse grown stock, and use of growth chambers to determine optimal light, temperature and humidity level for cuttings.

41. A high priority policy research topic in this area is the need for socio-economic research into ways and means of involving local coiammities and pastoral communities in sustainable savanna woodland management building on traditional silvo-pastoral forestry farming systems. The proceedings of a recent U.S. National Research Council Conference on Common Property Resource Management (1986) give a useful overview of the current status of socio-economic research in this area and gaps in knowledge.

42. Research issues have also been suggested by Magrath (1988).

"Nevertheless, much remains to be learned in order to guide policy towards the commons. After close examination. the success of purportedly successful examples of common property often seem ambiguous. Open ticess regime appear to be stable, converging to an inefficient equilibrium. Are common property regimes inherently and necessarily unstable, subject to collapse from population growth, goverment interference or other shocks? What are the implications of either common property or open access (and movements from one to the other) for the functional and size distribution of income (see Jodha 1983, 1985). What kinds of government incentive policies are available to improve the management of nonexclusive resources and how can they be put into effect7a - 16 -

(c) Alro-Forestry Research 43.n The two previous sections discussed research priorities related mainly to the role that forests and savanna woodlands play in sustaining agriculture and protecting soil and water resources. Of equal importance is the role that on fare trees play (i.e., agroforestry) as an integral component of farming systems either in situations where individual trees are being intercropped with other agricultural crops, planted as shelterbelts, live hedges andlor as discrete farm woodlots.

.44. Modern agricultural production technology has raised the hope that hunger Lan be eliminated and the carrying capacity of the land increased through better use of cubic volumes of soil, water, and air. Thanks to new technologies that emphasize the cultivation of genetic strains of crops that respond to irrigation and good soil-fertility management, many tropical and subtropical (developing) countries in Asia and Latin America have made good progress in food production since the mid 1960s. Many traditionally food-deficit or food-importing countries have become self- sufficient and even food-surplus countries. What is even more significant is that increases in food production have come largely from increases in productivity rather than increases in cultivated areas. 45. Nevertheless, as Swaminathan (1987) has observed the ecological sustainability and economic viability of new technologies are increasingly at stake. The rising populations of humans and animals, with their ever expanding food and fodder needs, exerts great pressure on the stabilizing elements of agro-ecosystems. It is predicted that between 1980 and 2000, world population will increase by 1.7 billion. Ninety percent of this growth will occur in the developing countries. This tremendous increase will require at least 50-60 percent greater agricultural output than in 1980. What then should be the appropriate strategy for increasing food production?

46. Agroforestry involving the integrated cultivation of wood perennials, crops, and animals provides one answer to this quandry. A typical agroforestry system allows symbiotic economic and ecological interactions between the woody and non-woody components to increase, sustain, and diversify the total land output. The advantages of incorporating trees into farming systems are graphically summarized in Chart 4.

47. As productive land becomes scarce, marginal farmers are pushed into fragile crop lands and forest areas unsuitable for modern agriculture. If the present trend of population growth persists, forest and pasture lands will be further reduced. Agroforestry has a special role to play in enhancing soil nutrient status and in reclamation of agricultural wastelands. Despite the desperate need for additional land to meet the soaring food requirements of Third World populations agricultural wasteland covers more than 20 million hectares in India, 16 million hectares in Indonesia and 60 million hectares in Africa. Agroforestry, using species such as Atriphex Prosopis, Terminalia aiuna and Acacia nilotica can help to bring such land back into productivity and provide a valuable source of fodder and/or fuelwood. Chart 4

ACROFORESTRY

Increased levels of tree planbing and tree management on farms can result Ins

Improved laproved Tree products for crop ivestock on-fare consumption Productivity production or sale and control

Shelterbolts Nitrogen Planting Fodder Living Felwood, Foods: other decrease wind fixation; on steep tram fences poles, nuts, outputs: damage and green areas posts, fruit., medicines, losses manur timber mushrooms leaves, I I- bark, etc. More IIIsol I Reduced Reduced Fed for Keep FUlwood can substitute for moisture need for erolon aimal. I Ivestock dung and crop resldues, evallable fertilizer and lose at from which can be used on fields; of nutrients critical crops and crope sold can provide Income; tim, under nutrition can be improved; shade control wood is aval lable for fences, but idings, furniture, etc.

On-farm benefits from tree. in the farming system

Source: Oregersen, Draper and El. World Bank (forthcoming) 3 _ 3а -

Qua¿tif, ,3¿ the Impack of Agro-Forestry Farming Syst ²ms 4а. Some of the princlpal agro£ore ²try syatems i ¿ ÁоÂÂо¿ ¸²е in t1.e trop3ca are aummarized in Ta « e 8.

¢а« е 8

Soma Р³о ¼ е¿t Aqrotore Ë rr S ò³е¿ ь ¼ Оеv е³оР¿о ¡о¸¿¸аа `- Йёаiё³а!+е¼ а¿о Еа²³е :. а¿аа е¿а ' ааа^о se .ano' .. _ _ ..-._._.,. _.._._ Sowneaa аа³а sou ¼e.n а²а ¼, ааеНаs ³ _ ¸¿³аwaa »³³Áа +ÃеË ´³r ¡а а¿е¿Áа¿Â¡оÁ² }. АÏ l оаlIWQYJJYIO ³ - ,ommerwal ³³е²а ³ Taungya ³ ¤ ³Åе cares s ³ Âа¸¿qÃа ³ ¸аеot ³rees on ³аÂ+ ³ ¢а²а ³n Ãе³а¿¼ а, а³¿о¿р ¡³ооs 2 P³antat,onCtopf * ο tea Î es. ban 2 Cacawrooa Crooa+ ³а¿оа³о³р³о³²Áае еа¼ Á³оеьÎа1 ³ее. £ l: ³¸¿³s ¿Îе troea а³аb ³е croN aueues'. Cuvetlas. ³orest ¡о р³аÅ ³о е ³w, ¿оо³еаºs. ÁаÁÎ . tear а о¿0 ¡® рS ­ ¡о¿¿а³¡³аl t ¿аа а¿р а!¡ 1 J Р³´nt а³³о¿ ¡³ора jod ´¸³Î t,xat Înl £. ¢³ееа1or orparoo 7 L³va rences r³¸³³reea w³Â Áора 2 РоWË аatonq v ¿qa- ра¿¼³¸00 ²n а¿0 root 2. Protlu § we Drotee matter а¿´ ¿¸, ¡¿ а Sna ¿erbeua е ,ve t е¿Á¼ . а¼аË ³оn csnaaa Á³ооÁо¼о³еÅ uve we о+ ³re еаon w³n а¿¿¸а Á³ооа 5 ¢а¸¿рr а re³о²¿а Trees ³о³аа¿´ tluna 4 ¡о³³ее + oansns }а³¼² ³´ еË0³оаL ²v 3. ¢³еа Æv е enees ²8¼³½¸q cun,vat În S Vsnowtrees о¿}а³¿ ³еÁ³аÂа¸о¿ s ¼,Åа´porenn,at е³ора еае¿а +a9neulwra wmaoreaxaа¿оs »а³ аÃа³еÂа ³а¿ааγproouenvaа ½¸еn аа- а¿а¿о³оа 8 ±v¿ а³аа³е n+,uet Á³ооаÃаÁеÂs ³ t е³ое¿а ¸l е³Á³ооо¿q ¸р³а¿ } ¸»Á³а¿а ³³Îа³еоÁ³орь + 3n,t§ng Á¸¸аа¸о¼ 3. Trees ¼ а¸рро¿ tor talion ¡³ора l ³ubbAr. 8 £а¿о¸а fom a ot ³³о³³lrees busn ra row arsema ¡Æ¿о³¿q <о¼¿е³¡³st о´ о²³Â . ÁоÁо¿¸§ аn, ¸¸ре¸³аv аt ο S. ´³о¿а¸Á. ¿ео³Á¸аl Á³ооа М 80, ¡, ¿а³ р1 а 1 ь а¿´ f ³w! l ³²е8 w,M 8 ¢а¸¿рÃа aqneu ¿uro apae,es cn ps 7 3h,hmqewuwt Îe аÃа³а а 1 Paat.u e , raat t Р¼ t ¸³е under f³²²е 1 oak torest + 4ratmp t ±¸Â а³ааÁ 1 ИоÂа´, Á/ае ¸ t Troes ,n рааt ¸³е р³а¿t аt ο 2. Р³а¿³а¸о¿ croos+ 2. iИg b³eeomq а¿´ uveatoc º ¿о¿а´Á¿³а¿аn¸Âа¿ 2. P¼ iure ¼ nalural 2 P¼ ture  seco ¿dary еа³ае qraamq ³оre½ry ? Psnfanan Á³ооа £. SaOenfary uvastock reqe¿ersr,on³о ³еË ³о³еа³а 3 Roddertrees а¿´ aanqe ³аnа ³eoCOnuueasnew. g³аºr ¿9 ari ³emsr 3. Troea³о оре4 tor ¡о ¿еro, аl ³³ееs ¸ а¼³¸bа ³Âр³оvеÂ е¿³ р¼ w³е brows,nqаà ²³е¿ а ³о´аа³ о¼³¸³еа а Prwt ³³ееs аМ Áо¿ 3 Roddertreefan ³uo  еааа´³о³ аF³оwsnane trees ¸ merc,auees ³n ÃаÁе¿а re о¼ t ¸³е paaturea s brows,n9 s. Fоао²³³ее² е ¡оÁо¿¸³а + p ¼ ture ´³ ¡³ооs а»о ³¿ } Р³а¿¸,¸о¿croosь §а¿9е ³а¿0 manaqi 1 о³а¿ ра¿³а Coconuteaotner t Forestry dom,nat¼q 1. Aqncult È e p³antahon + ³³оnа anaeе ³о ра + ment ³а¸о¿erops+ ³ооо rtoreat ³а¿аа е³о рь(caeonut.ruboe ³. 2. аqn Á¸¿¸¿ trae Á³ооа ³,v аа³оÁº crops+ qro:mq 2 Agneuuu³e ODtnu³al ¼q k¸¿. t³аеаl w¿¿ . qra ³rnq ¸ fo³eat 2. Aqncuuure tree е³орÏ 2 Cottae + oanana + tcroo³ а¿´а Á³ораа¿´р¼ º¸³еа planeat Î n + 9³а³¿р  foroat аа,³ÃÂ9 3 ,vestoekа оÂ¼а¿¿Ã 3 М¸³t ³р¸³ооs е tre6a J ½о³t, е¸lW³а³¡оÂо³еÅ (¡³о р 8 ¿0а1 w ³Â Á³о ра, а³о ¿аls sya³erns » ³¿tеóаÁе´³arm,nq ² Р³о¸Ãn ¡¸¸¸³² ¡о¿ 9yatafn9 w,lh a9nCU1 plBxayatama 1uf8 bа¿l а³О¿ ¡/0 ра 1 ¿, ¡bе³. coconut. о³³ oalmi 1. MOms£а ´М ³а VanoW l о³¿ ² М 1 Mullbto¼ y planf М а¸ 1à ¿ larqe Á³t ²² Vа³³О¸а ³о³¿ а Var¸ w ³»³¿ l Ë оа М ³¼ ¿¸³¸а еÁ³еь ³ ¿,´ ÁоÂË¿рË³о¿ ³eanopreaеq,о¼ n h ¸ р´¿´³s е¼ а³Î ayst ²¿s . 1 $³1 ¸ lt ¸³² ,n 1 М , ÅВ´ psrenmat 1 N8Wа ò³а ,n 1 Paator syste¿ s / Oasg М. е´ ре³е¿а³ manOrove ³оre а¸ Á³ооо³¿р ¼о³оÁÁо³ар,Áер³s¿ w,³¿Áо+³³¸³sÂ+¸q 2 t ³¿а³Î ¿s Ãsl е¼ Ï Á³орр¿Ã 1 Ар¿ 3, ¸ ttanery t ³Â q¿ λ systems ³аt Î ¿ ³о³е³о аο ³¿,q ¼³а¿а³оw³а¿Â ­ vsnoua s, ³еаоеÁ³³³Á . Trees о¿ р¸¿´f  ·. vγо¸аs ¿еареа³¿ eontrop 2. М³Åе4 ре³е¿¼ аl sysle ¿a tta ¼b³ео´ь¿рponda syste ¿ s 2. apneulture eroownA ² 8+n ´´е¿ ³а¸¿р s. Fuelwood syata¼+s to»a1ry i. Р¸еl¸Îооар. о³оre а³ry ·²³о¿ tre¼ ¸ аеае¿s ' М £а11f О0 £П ¡£ 1U£а 1 ® П t ¿ i0rlal '- _ ' "' ' _' " .' " " _' _'^_" fouaCS а^ е²¼ о¼ ОÎb² ¼+¼ ³о³r ot § ¼ ³а¼ n Sr ¿¼ а ' 8aaw 1 Å, txa. ³9l7 - 19 -

49. Most of the earlier agro-forestry studies have reviewed in a descriptive way evidence that supports the positive physical impact of irees on crop and livestock production. Much effort has also been devoted to diagnostic methodolegy for ensuring that agro-forestry research program design is tailored to meeting farmers perceived needs Raintree (1983). Despite the powing volume of largely anecdotal evidence that agro-forestry farming systems are important for sustainable land use, in practice very little systematic research has been carried out that has quantified the physical interaction between trees and farm crops in varying ecological situations or which has studied the economic trade-off between agroforestry and other farming systems (Spears 1986).

Trees and Pasture Production

50. An example of the type of quantified agroforestry field research that merits early replication over a wide range of different agraforestry farming systems is that carried out by CATIE (Enriquez 1983) who compared pasture production of C)Modon plectostachyas in Cost& Rica in unfertilized replicated plots with and without an overstorey of Erythrina poeppiliana and Cordia alliodora trees.

Table 9

Campanson of yields of Cynodon pkciostachyus pasture alone and usociatec with Coirdso adiodospaand N-fuung En-thrm poeppigum

Grass Grass Grass alone Cordid Ei ythmia

Biomass produced *8 dry mater ha" yr") 5.931 5.090 10.4110 % of Graminat (in relation to weeds) 44 80 90 CC protein in Graminat 1.7 111.9 10.1 Digestibility of Graminae (9o) 45.1 47,3 46.9 Production of protein (kg ha-I yr") 656 468 1.113

sowce: Bronstein. 1984.

51. The result showed that the presence of Erythrina resulted in a 60 percent increase in total grass and protein production.

52. Similarly Bille (1977) working in Senegal reported a production of the grass layer twice as large in the shade as compared to the open (combined production of grass and shrubs). The photosynthetic efficiency during the growing season was 1.4 percent, whereas it barely reached 0.3 percent in the surrounding open grassland. The efficiency of the system was thus 4.6 times greater in the multistorey vegetation structure as compared to monostratum grass layers. * 20 -

53. Pratchell (1988) working in Botswana recorded measurements in semi-arid pasture zone (250 S. 25 050'E; 550mm; 1.000m altitude) over several years and showed that under the canopy of Peltophorum africana, Acacia tortillis and Grevia flava, solar radiation and windspeed were reduced by about 50 percent as compared to a nearby open test area. As a consequence, potential evapotranspiration was reduced by 70 percent under the canopy, while the continuous grass layer of Panicum maximum had a production 26 percent higher when grazed and 12 percent when ungrazed (Pratchell, 1988).

54. Further research is clearly needed to quantify the optimal espacement of trees in agro-forestry systems and rangelands and appropriate combination of browse and pasture species required to produce sustainable biomass output and soil protection.

Alley Cropping

55. Given the constraints to fertilizer application by small farmers, particularly in Africa, the potential of agroforestry farming systems to contribute to maintenance of soil fertility (as well as to maintenance of soil organic matter and structure) is of special interest. The work of Kang and Wilson at IITA on alley cropping in Nigeria has demonstrated the potential of leguminous tree species to maintain nutrient status and to help sustain maize production (Table 10).

Table 10

Main season grain yield of maize alley cropped with Leswe leucocephaak as affected by application of leucaena prunings and nitrogen

Yield by year (ti ha) N rate Leucaena (kgi ha) pruninp 1979 1980 1981* 1982 1983

0 Removed - 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0 Retained 2.1 1.9 1.2 2.1 0.9 80 Retained 3.5 3.3 1.9 2.9 3.2 LSD 0.05 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 * Maku crop senously affected by drought durng early growth. Soce* Kang e aL. 1984. - 21 *

56. Research needs for alley cropping have been recently summarized by Lal (1988). Key issues for field scale research are--for how long can these positive contributions of trees to soil fertility and sustained crop yield be maintained? Secondly, the economic return to the alley cropping system in situations of labor scarcity. As Greenfield (1982) has observed labor requirements for successful alley cropping on large farms quickly reach the point where imported labor has to be hired to keep on top of tree cutting and mulch spreading. Where farmers are uncertain of the financial returns and do not engage the necessary labor to keep the system under control Leucaena can quickly become a pernicious weed that takes over the land and is extremely difficult to eradicate.

Nitrogen Fixing Leguminous Trees

57. Support for increased planting of leguminous nitrogen fixing trees such as Gliricidia, Sesbania, Casuarina and Leucaena species can significantly contribute to maintenance of soil nitrogen, reduced dependence on artificial fertilizer and improved soil structure and crop yields. This is a key issue for thousands of small developing country farmers who either cannot afford to purchase fertilizer or who live in remote areas where it is not available. The pioneering work of NFTA, and in particular of Brewbaker (1987), and Dommergues (1987), has demonstrated the potential. Dommergues has distinguished between tree species with high and low nitrogen fixing potential.

o Species with a high nitrogen fixing potential (in the range of 100-300 kg n2 ha/yr) and more, e.g., Acacia mani Casuarina equisetifolia, and Leucaena leucocephala;

o Species with a low nitrogen fixing potential (less than 20 kg NZ ha/yr), e.g., Acacia albida A. raddiana and A. senegal.

58. What is needed is accelerated field trials of selected provenances of leguminous tree species with high nitrogen fixing potential. Molecular cloning and recombination techniques could lead to development of new strains of Rhizobium and Frankia (mycorrhizal fungi that stimulate nodule formation and nitrogen fixation).

Direct Seeding

59. Direct seeding (as opposed to more traditional dependence on polythene potted stock) has the potential in appropriate ecological situations, to decrease planting costs at least five-fold and to facilitate rapid spread of low-cost reforestation in remoter rural areas. This is a particularly relevant technology for making an early and significant contribution to on-farm fuelwood/fodder needs and to reclamation of degraded wastelands and watersheds. Also for accelerating the adoption of agroforestry technologies. A Beijer Institute study of Western Kenya experience (1984) indicated that the amount of direct seeding carried out - 22 *

by small farmers in their on-farm nurseries far outweighed the number of seedlings distributed from government nurseries. Direct seeding has been a decisive factor in the rapid spread of farm forestry throughout this region. The National Academy of Sciences (1982) has reviewed the potential for aerial reseeding in upland watersheds. China has successfully used this technology over large areas.

Shelterbelts 60. Shelterbelts are important because of the role they can play in helping to contain soil erosion and increasing crop yield. Higgins (FAO 1983) concluded if soil erosion in developing countries continues at current rates soil loss in rainfed crop land in developing countries will range from 9.7 percent to 35.6 percent leading to an overall 28.9 percent decrease in crop production by year 2000.

Table 11

Projected effects of unchecked soil erosion on productivity (1983-2000)

Afnca Soutn-west South-*ast South Central Global Asia Asia Amenca Amenca av i9) Decrease in area of ramined cropland O9) 16.5 20.0 35.6 9.7 29.7 17.7 Decrease tn ran-fed crop productysty 1%) 29.4 35.1 38.6 22.6 44.5 28.9 Source: Hig es aL. 1983.

61. Research is needed to quantify both the physical impact and economic justification for shelterbelts. Magrath (1983) reviewed over 400 literature sources and concluded that more than 90 percent of the quantifiable evidence relating to farm/tree crop shelterbelt relationships emanated from U.S.A., Russian or European experience. Research on this topic in Sub Saharan Africa that merits replication in different agro- ecological zones is that carried out by Bognetteau and Verlinder in the Majia Valley in Niger. - 23 -

Table 12

EFFECTS OF DOUBLE ROW WINDBREAK ON WIND VELOCITIES,

MAJJIA VALLEY, NIGER

Distance from Edge of

Windbreak

Control (leeward side) tree heights

Quantity Village 1.0 5.0 8.5 12.0 16.0

Relative wind velocity

- 1 meter height 100.0 78 47 60 72 63

- 2.5 meters hbight 100.0 38 46 58 66 67

Source: Bognetteau-Verlinden, 1980.

62. The study concluded that threshold wind velocity for soil erosion (10-15mph) was not reached in the protected areas; wind velocity reduction was 45=80 percent of unprotected control area at im height; soil moisture increased at 80cm depth. Fields of millet in the Majia Valley protected area were 17 percent higher than those achieved in the area not protected by the shelterbelt. In addition to the protection benefits, the shelterbelts provide fuelvood and fodder (an estimated 52 cubic meters and 4 tons every four years per linear kilometer of windbreak (Rorison and Dennison (1986); Long and Dennison (1986).

63. Similar, research by El Lakany (1986) and others in Egypt, has demonstrated yield increases as high as 47 percent for maize grown with windbreak protection.

64. The work of Dennis Anderson (1987) in Nigeria has made a significant contribution towards improved quantification of the economic importance of shelterbelts in arid zone situations. - 24 -

Table 13

APPRAISAL OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF AN AGROFORESTRY/SHELTERBELT/

SOIL CONSERVATION PROJECT IN NORTHERN NIGERIA*

Internal Rate of return (Z)

Agroforestry component Wood/fruit benefit alone 7.4 Wood/fruit benefits plus positive impact of trees on conservation of soil and crop yield 16.9

Shelterbelt component Wood/benefits alone (poles/fuelvood) 4.7 Wood/benefits plus positive impact of shelterbelt on soil conservation and crop yield 21.8

* The original analysis includes a broad range of return related to different assumptions about the phasing of benefits level of crop yields and other variables. This table summarizes the high and low ends of the analysis results.

Source: Anderson (World Bank, 1986)

65. An important feature of this work is that it demonstrates that when true economic benefits are taken into account (e.g., impact of the shelterbelt in reducing soil erosion,) it is possible to justify investment in shelterbelt planting and to quantify the case for the necessary subsidies that will be needed during the early years to trigger farmer interest in shelterbelt planting.

66. Anderson identified key areas for concentration of future shelterbelt research efforts including:

o Heasurements of crop yield in sheltered areas of already established shelterbelts compared with crop yield in unprotected control areas.

o Sustained measurements of the influence of shelterbelts on soil nutrients and soil erosion.

o The need for more intensive research into the economic returns to investment in shelterbelts. . 25 -

Farm Woodlots

67. Chambers (1985) has emphasized the importance of tree farming for income generation as a production objective of small farmers. Farm woodlots can play a vital role in small farm situations in helping to reduce risk and uncertainty. In recent drought years in India and Kenya, income from sale of building poles, fuelvood and industrial wood have often provided the main source of farm income. Profitable woodlot farming with poplar species is widely practiced by farmers in Pakistan and India. Cash crop tree farming with fast growing Albizzia species is the main source of income for many smallholder tree farmers in the Philippines. Table 14.

Table 14

Smallholder tree farming project in the Philippinest Summarized cash flow and financial rate of return for a 10 ha Albizzia falcataris tree farmer (US$. 1980)*

t.:v. Ye3r 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 S 9 10 Ii 12 13 !4 .5 Accumulaue planted areaiha) 4 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 'P Annual area harvested ihal * 1 25 1.S 125 1.25 I .5 1. 5 1.25 1.25 1.25 114 25 Net cash flow Loan 640 640 320 - - Net revenue 828 864 958 958 1034 1111 1111 1!31 958 Net cash flow Investment ** 665 675 343 Debt service *09 09 I09 09 109 I09 09 Net cash flow :25) (35) (23) 128 155 249 249 325 402 402 42 9584 * *nanwcta rate of return computed over zs yean : 22 percent. * Comcounded at 12 pernL

Sourcet World Bank, 1982

68. Greater attention to market research for agro-forestry products and research into better understanding of the economic aspects of the intermediate stages between production and the market could help stimulate expansion of cash crop tree farming and to ensure reasonable returns to the grower. - 26 -

69. Genetic research such as carried out by Sheikh (1983) on Poplar species at the Forest Research Institute in Peshawar, Pakistan has clearly shown that improved planting stock has the potential to at least double yields from unselected species and provenances and significantly to increase farmers' returns.

70. Research has shown that great gains in productivity can be made simply by identifying and selecting the seed source most adapted to planting locality. In Nigeria, after five years of a provenance trial, the best provenance of E. camaldulensis had a mean annual increment of 17.3 cubic meters per hectare, while the poorest only had 5.1 cubic meters (FAQ 1979). In the Congo and Brazil, the yield of eucalyptus plantations has been increased by up to 80 percent by selection of the best seed sources (Chaperon 1978; Brune and Zobel 1981).

Economic Returns to Agroforestry Farming Systems

71. A critical gap in research knowledge is the economic trade-off between agroforestry and al*.ernative farming systems in different agro ecological zones. For example Dewees' (World Bank, 1986), economic analysis of a Sesbania/maize alley cropping agroforestry system in Western Kenya concluded that despite the apparent advantages of agro-forestry, gross margins to maize production in the maize/Sesbania system are less than half the margins in the maize system alone. however, returns to labor are significantly higher. He argues that one possible explanation of the popularity of this system is a scarcity of agricultural labor in Western Kenya. Returns to farming households which are dependent on this type of cropping system could be significantly higher than a system which relies on maize cropping alone because of the opportunity cost of urban wage employment foregone. Conversely, where agricultural labor is abundant, returns to maize cropping would be higher because of the relatively lower opportunity cost. Improved understanding of such relationships is a key to devising effective and cost efficient agro-forestry incentive policies.

72. Few studies have been carried on the economic viability of agroforestry systems in arid zones. Those that have raise serious questions about the financial returns to dry zone agroforestry farming systems and in particular the willingness of pastoralists and farmers to adopt them. As Nelson (1988) has concluded this is partly because farmers and pastoralists demand very high and immediate returns/and or lower risks to trigger adoption on a large scale whilst sustainability by reforestation - 27 * demands a long term view. Low rainfall and slow growth rates imply long waiting periods (up to 15 years or more) before any significant returns can be expected. Few small farmers can afford to wait that long; protecting young trees for that length of time from browsing animals is a problem. See Table 15.

Table 15

TREE PLANTING IN AFRICA Years Required to Reach 15 cms. Diameter

East Africa Sahel Highlands Zone (1200mm rainfall) (600mm rainfall) Eucalyptus spp Acacia albida

7 years 30 years

Source: World Bank project data.

73. Underlying all of the above is the need for improved understanding of the cost effectiveness of alternative incentive policies (e.g., subsidized seedlings, credit, food aid, etc.) for encouraging smallholder forestry and people involvement in community property, woodlands and forest management. A recent research proposal prepared by the Oxford Forestry Institute on Incentives for Smallholder Farm Forestry, (World Bank, 1988), is intended to assist in developing a better understanding of the issues. (See Chart 5 on page 28). - Ų -

Chart S

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E. FUELIWOOD RESEARCH

74. PAO has documented the magnitude of the fuelwood crisis facing many developing countries.

Table 16

Populations experiencing a fuelwood deficit (in millions).

1980 2000 Prospective Acute scarcitv Acute scarcitv- opficit deficit or deficit total rural total rural total rural total rural population population population population population population Population population Africa 55 49 146 131 112 102 535 464 Near East and North Africa 104 69 268 158 Asia and Pacific 31 29 832 710 161 148 1.671 1.434 Latin America 26 18 201 143 so 30 512 342 Total 112 96 1.283 1.053 323 280 2.986 2.398

Source: F.,,o Fuelwood supplies in the developing countries. Forestry paper no. 42 ilkorne. 1983).

Currently some 112 million people live in situations Of acute fuelwood scarcity.

75. Experience from the 1980's suggests that future efforts to solve the fuelwood crisis will require a three-pronged strategy involving:

0 Encouraged use of substitute fuels particularly in urban areas including where appropriate, more intensive use of fossil fuels for as long as supplies last at reasonable prices;

0 Vigorous attempts to conserve fuelwood (e.g.. by improved charcoal burning methods, and use of improved charcoal/wood burning stoves;

0 Increased development of new fuelwood resources. - 30 -

(a) Encouraging the Use of Substitute Fuels

76. Recent research by Foley (1987) and by World Bank ESMAP studies (1988) have highlighted the important role that agricultural crop residues play in meeting rural household energy needs. In China for example, they account for almost one-half of all rural energy consumption. (See Table 17).

Table 17

CHINA: RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 1988

Millions tons of Million tons Standard coal equivalent

Households Crop by-products 235 117.5 Fuelvood 180 96.4 Coal 45 32.1 Dung 10.4 5.2 Kerosene 1.0 1.5 Electricity 7.2 bln kWh 3.0

Total 255.7

Agriculture and Agricultural Processing Coal 30 21.5 Diesel oil 8.2 11.9 Gasoline 0.8 1.2 Electricity 26.1 bln kWh 10.8

Total 45.4

Source: World Bank, 1988 - 31 -

77. However, very little research has been carried out into the negative impact of crop residue burning on soil fertility and crop yield. The trade-offs that need to be more clearly researched are the use of crop residues (and animal dung) as fuel versus their potential use as livestock feed and/or for improving soil structure and fertility. Farmers in southern China, for example, are reported to be burning part of their straw crop for fuel but deliberately conserving about 40 percent of the rice paddy straw in order to protect soil and to maintain crop yields. By contrast, small farmers in northern China were burning off 100 percent of sorghum and millet stalk because they had no alternative fuel (Taylor 1988). Studies such as that carried out by Briscoe (1977) which documented the use for crop residues in Bangladesh villages, can provide a starting point for better understanding of the trade-off between residue burning and their alternative use as a source of livestock feed, for contour bunding, roof thatching and so on.

78. Work by Lal (1979) in Nigeria suggested that burning off all the surface crop residue lead to soil compaction, reduced moisture availability and to a 15 to 20 percent reduction in crop yield. The positive impact of a straw mulch on crop yield was tested under various ecological conditions.

Table 18

IMPACT OF STAW MULCH ON UPLAND RICE PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Variety TOS 848

Soil Moisture Dry Matter Production 12 weeks

Bare soil (dry site) 23.2 Mulch (dry site) 28.5

Bare soil (wet site) 26.1 Mulch (wet site) 30.6

Source: P.R. Maurya and R. Lal, IITA 1979

79. Policy research on substitute fossil fuel use needs to be site specific. For example, introduction of a subsidy policy, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, encouraged rapid adoption and increased use of kerosene stoves or other fuels. About 60 percent of the urban population of Addis Ababa switched to kerosene stoves within a period of.4 years. - 32 -

Table 19

OWERSHIP OF KEROSENE STOVES

Addis Ababa - 1984-86

Year Number of Kerosene Percentage of Stoves in Use Population owning a Kerosene Stove

1984 34,648 13 1985 108,146 38 1986 189,540 62

Source: ILO 1980

80. Access to substitute fuels and improved reliability of supplies should in theory have a positive impact on reducing fuelwood consumption. However, there is some evidence that in practice government intervention policies to encourage use of kerosene or butane gas stoves may not always achieve that objective.

81. Recent experience in Senegal for example suggests that it was the more affluent urban households who benefitted with little or no impact on fuetwood/charcoal needs. Consumption of LPG has increased five times since the Government of Senegal initiated its butanization campaign in 1974. According to a 1987 household energy survey, 602 of the households in the five main cities have LPG stoves of some sort and 252 of families cook primarily with LPG. Still, national consumption of LPG has not exceeded 15,000 tonnes and has had only a small impact on reducing charcoal consumption. The survey indicated that the average household in Dakar consumes 300 g. of charcoal per person daily. Families which use LPG as their primary fuel still consume 170 g. of charcoal/person/day and those who use LPG as a secondary fuel have not reduced their consumption of charcoal at all. Thus, at the national level, introduction of LPG has led to a saving of only about 16-17,000 tons of charcoal annually, after thirteen years of promotion and subsidization. The impact on forest conservation has been minimal (equivalent to a saving of less than 3 percent of total fuelwood consumption).

82. Similar research by Leach and Mearns (1988) suggested that if kerosene prices rise much above 2 to 3 times the price of woodfuels, use of kerosene is significantly deterred and backward switching by kerosene using families into woodfuels may be encouraged. Conversely, low (subsidized) kerosene prices compared to woodfuels may do little to encourage a switch out of traditional fuels in rural areas where alternative biomass fuels such as dung and crop residues are readily available. - 33 -

83. More intensive policy research on such issues is essential for planning the appropriate timing and likely effectiveness of fuel subsidies.

(b) Stove Research and Demand Management

84. In theory. improved wood/charcoal stoves and demand management have the potential to reduce fuelvood consumption by up to 30 percent. It was postulated at the beginning of the energy crisis that on a global scale a 20 percent saving in fuelwood consumption through introduction of improved stoves and demand management could reduce the initial investment needed in new fuelwood plantings between now and the year 2000 by more than US$500 million. (World Bank 1981).

85. In practice, improved wood-stove adoption rates in the last decade have been disappointingly slow, partly because of peoples preference for traditional cooking methods, but also because of high costs or inappropriate design. Reasons for slow adoption of stoves have been reviewed by Manibog (1982). At a stove seminar organized by non-government organizations in Nairobi in 1982, several African women delegates stressed the fact that when using the traditional 3-stone cooking method, housewives living in rural areas have already adopted effective cooking techniques for cutting down wood consumption, e.g., by dampening one end of the log and feeding the fire with just enough fuel to keep the pot boiling; and secondly, by making use of maize cobs or similar crop residues. Since the 3-stone hearth and crop residues cost nothing, and because many women do not perceive, as a particular 'hardship', the time spent in collecting residues such as twigs or maisecobs, there is little incentive to change cooking habits and to invest $10 in a stove of unproven performance which might use more wood than they currently do at present.

86. Despite the slow uptake of improved stoves, some promising experiences have been recorded, particularly in urban areas. Improved efficiency in energy use clearly does have the potential to make a significant contribution to reduced fuelwood consumption. Encouraging results in introduction of ceramically lined charcoal stoves have been reported from Nairobi, for example, Jones (1988).

87. Case studies are needed of success stories of improved stoves including the technological and policy interventions that led to their accelerated adoption.

88. The high cost of modern fuel devices frequently restrains upward switching from fuelwood or other biomass stoves for all but high income households. Possible mechanisms for reducing these costs that merit more intensive research include encouragement of local design, manufacture and dissemination of appropriate stoves (e.g., kerosene and gas fuelled). . 34 *

Currently such equipment is often imported resulting in high retail prices and foreign exchange costs. One promising line of research would be into the local production and sale of LPG in smaller and cheaper cylinders than the usual 12 to 14 kg sizes. This would increase access to the rural and urban poor and ease the problem of carrying home large and heavy cylinders.

(c) Fuelwood Pricing Policy 89. A key area for intensified pricing policy research is into the question of how effectively to raise stumpage prices for fuelvood harvested from comon property woodlands and to provide an economic incentive that would stimulate on-farm investment in fuelwood growing? Currently stumpage returns to fuelwood growing are in many situations too low to encourage investment in growing of fuelwood as a free standing crop.

Table 20

COMPARISON OF RETURNS TO SMALLHOLDER

CASH CROP TREE FARMING IN KENYA

Tree Growi l re Growing Tree Growing for for for Pole Pul pwood Fuel ood Factor Production Production Production a/

Oiscount Rate 1ss 191 15s Discounted gross margins (KSN ha) 23,190 15,274 5,039

s/ Assuning a current sTU&eag rate of KSh 20/e.

Source: World Bank ESMAP 1984

90. Economic research is needed to develop a better understanding of these relationships and of appropriate policy interventions for encouraging accelerated fuelwood planting. - 35 -

(4) Increasing Fuelvood Supply

91. There are three main options: (a) increasing the productivity of fuelvood production in natural forests; (b) increased production of fuelvood as a by-product of agro-forestry; and (c) fuelvood plantations with special emphasis on close espacement biomass planting.

Increasing Fuelvood Production from Natural Forests

92. Intensification of research into improved lopping, pollarding and cropping technologies could lead to significant gains in natural forest fuelwood productivity. As noted earlier effective results have been obtained by early burning and careful timing of lopping and felling in Gusselbodi forest in Niger (Winterbottom and Hazewood, 1986). Similar results from earlier silvicultural research work in Zambia and by research workers in Tan.tania and Sudan have been summarized by Wormald (1984). Over the next 20 years increasing the productivity of existing natural savanna woodland belts from 0.5 m3/ha per annum to 1.0 m3/ha per annum will make a far greater impact on fuelwood supply in Sahel zone countries for example than could possibly be achieved by investment in new energy plantations. Gorse (1985).

93. An integral component of a strategy for improved management of natural forest resources would be policy interventions aimed at channelling of harvesting towards areas with well stocked forest resources. Discouragement of over exploitation can be achieved in theory by restriction of access to areas with low regenerative capacity.

94. In practice such government policy interventions are likely to meet considerable resistance. Socio-economic policy research needs in this area include the possibility of involving local people in common property fuelvood resource management for example, by allocation of areas of natural forest to specific user groups, such as charcoal burners as is being tried by Government of Niger, Floor (1986), Campbell (1983) has reviewed recent experiences of this approach in Nepal where government owned forests are being handed back for management to local panchyats.

Producing Fuelwood as a By-product of Agro-forestry

95. One clear message that has emerged from the fuelwood research and development work carried out in the 1980's is that in rural areas farmers rrely regard fuelwood production as a separate issue from growing wood for a' variety of other uses (tree fodder, building poles, generation of income, etc.) FAO (1985). The research programs suggested by IUFRO supported by the USAID/FRED network in Asia are concentrating on increasing productivity of multi-purpose tree species that at the same time produce significant volumes of fuelwood as a by-product. In many parts of Africa and India it is common practice for farmers to lop side branches of Eucalyptus or to use - 36 - pollarded stems of species such as Neem (Azadirachta indica) as a way of increasing fuelwood availability without killing the tree and leaving the main stem to grown on to produce building poles, and/or timber. Fishwick (1979) has recorded how a family in Northern Nigeria have supplied their fuelvood needs for many years by pollarding of about 30 old trees growing along the farm boundary.

96. In Kenya biomass accounts for 73 percent of total energy demand. Of total energy use. 35 percent is derived from agroforestry--Table 21. Despite the obvious potential of agro-forestry to contribute to developing country fuelwood needs there has been almost no systematic research into optimal timing of pollarding, coppicing or other harvesting systems.

Table 21

CONTRIBUTION OF AGROFORESTRY TO ENERGY DEMAND

KENYA

Energy Source Z of Supply

Coal and petroleum products 25 Electricity 2 Charcoal 8 Agroforestry 35 Forest reserves 27 Crop residues 3

100

Source: Beijer Institute (1984)

Energy Plantations

97. Fuelwood plantations can be a technically and economically viable solution in situations where marginal land suitable for forestry is available close to urban townships or where there is a captive industrial market for fuelwood or charcoal (e.g., the Brazil Minas Gerais Fuelwood Plantations). Zsuffa (1985) has documented the significant increases in productivity that can be attained by closer espacement and short rotation . 37 -

biomass planting. Spacing studies in poplar plantations in China with a variety of clones representing hybrids within and between species of Aiaeiros and Tacamahaca sections, led to a similar conclusion (Sheikh, 1983). At six years of age, at spacings ranging from 1.0m x 3.Om to 6.Om x 8.0m, the highest yields were obtained at the narrowest spacings (3.0m x 3.Om or less). Raitanen (1978) demonstrated similar results working with hybrid poplar in the U.S.A. (Table 22).

Table 22

Hybirid Poplar Yield as Related to Rotation anc ?ia.-zina.Density

Rotation Density MAX Total Production Density (yr) (stems/ha) (odt/ha/yr) (odt/ha) MAI

1 53,797 - - 2 35,864 16.27 32.54 2204 3 13,449 - - - 4 6,726 10.09 40.33 667 5 4,303 8.35 41.79 515 6 2,989 7.48 44.92 400 7 2,193 7.04 49.31 311 8 1,680 6.72 53.75 250 9 1,326 6.56 58.99 202 10 1,077 6.41 54.03 168 11 889 6.32 69.48 140 12 746 6.12 73.47 121 13 645 5.80 75.37 109 14 548 5.55 77.66 98 15 476 5.27 79.05 90 16 420 5.01 80.14 83 17 371 4.77 81.06 78 18 331 4.59 82.62 72 19 296 4.38 83.22 67 20 267 4.18 83.60 64

Source: Raitanes (1978) - 38 -

98. However, there are several unanswered questions about the wider applicability of this technology in the tropics. In poor leached tropical soils it may be necessary to inject a substantial fertilizer input between rotations in order to maintain soil productivity. Waring (1985). Secondly, as Ryan (1988) has shown the economics of close versus wider planting espacement may not favor close espacement in situations of high initial planting costs (Table 23).

Table 23

CLOSE ESPACEMENT BIOMASS PLANTING IN CHINA

Influence of Planting Density on Cost of Establishment and Economic Rate of Return

Biomass Yields Yield mt/ha

Seeding density At age 5 At age 20

10,000/ha 35 150 2,500/ha 23 138

Seedling density/ha Establishment cost per ha (yuan)

10,000 1.530 2,500 417

Economic rate of return over 20 years (4 rotations)

Seedling density 10,000/ha - 7 percent Seedling density 2,500/ha - 16 percent

Source: Ryan, World Bank ESMAP (1988)

99. Both the technical and economic aspects of these relationships are ill-understood and intensive research is needed on a site-specific basis to clarify them. - 39 -

F. INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY AND FOREST INDUSTRIES RESEARCH

100. The industrial sections of the TFAP were based on the premise that high priority should be given to supporting industrial forestry policies that would ensure sustainable supplies of industrial wood products that are vital to economic development. They include building poles, sawn timber, wood based panels and pulp and paper.

101. Small scale rural wood using industries such as charcoal burning, sawilling and joinery play a very significant role in generating rural employment and incomes.

Table 24

MAJOR ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF FOREST-BASED SHALL SCALE ENTERPRISES (FB-SSE)

Sterra Contributions Jamaica Honduras Zambia Egypt Leone Bangladesh

Share in total SSE sector (%)

- value added 47 16 18 23 18 - value of 49 14 ** 19 27 -- production

Relative magnitude of SSE tXpes. by *mployment (%1:

Share of total SSE employment (%)

(a) Woodworks 15.0 14.1 13.9 9.6 14.8 5.1 (b) Others a/ 19.8 2.2 19.3 14.3 5.5 7.9

Subtotal 34.8 16.3 33.2 23.9 20.3 13.0 a/ "other" includes non-wood products.

Source: Fisseha 1987 - 40 -

102. The TFAP focusses on the declining availability of raw material as a consequence of overcutting of industrial forest resources both for domestic consumption and export. Several countries that were formerly major exporters of industrial wood (e.g., such as Nigeria and Thailand) are now faced with increasing import bills for manufactured forest products. See Chart 6.

Chart 6

Nigeria: Net trade in forest products i Sawnwooo - panels - puip - paper)

Ailion CuOIC Metei souf4dwoQd equivaet)

04

0*

0 .0 -.-

-02

408 980

Source 93 YeVOOor of forest PrOUcts Rome FAO - 41 -

103. 32 developing countries that have potential to grow their own industrial wood instead depend to a high degree on imports of manufactured forest products. Between 1980 and 83 developing countries' imports of such products averaged US$10 billion a year, a figure which will more than double by the year 2000 unless steps are taken to reverse current trends.

Chart 7

Imports of forest products by all developing countries

Silion US1 at 1984 omce

-'o

sal 71 72 73 74 75 76 7 T8 T9 60 St 82 Yat

Seul"- eN3 YsooS of Fofwr NoOAS Aome. PAO.

104. Countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines that possess large tracts of natural hardwood rely to a significant degree on timber exports to finance economic development. Much of the past harvesting has been selective logging of high value species with little re-investment in forest management and reforestation. Given current trends, beyond year 2000 tropical hardwood forest exports will decline from their current figure of US$7 billion to less than US$2 billion a year. WRI (1985). - 42 -

105. The only hope for sustaining significant exports into the next century is rapid action taken now, to introduce essential taxation and concession license policy reforms, and to protect and intensify management of the existing natural forests. Increased utilization of secondary species, and establishment of complementary areas of fast growing plantations that can help take the pressure off natural forests are an essential part of such a strategy.

106. Paradoxically many developing countries have enough land and suitable ecological conditions for them to be able to produce much of their domestic industrial wood at a significantly lower cost than the alternative of relying on ever-increasing imports. A few countries such as Chile and Brazil have a comparative advantage to grow industrial wood more cheaply than temperate countries and they are rapidly becoming a significant factor in world forest products trade.

Table 25

COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS OF PLANTATION FORESTRY Internal Rates of Return

Pulpwood/ Pulpwood Sawnwood

Sweden 5 5

USA Pacific North/West Pseudotsuga spp 8 9

Southern States Pinus taeda 12 12

South America Brazil Pinus taeda 15 20 Eucalyptus 20 15

Chile Pinus radiata 23 17

Source: Sedjo (1984) - 43 -

Priority Areas for Industrial Forestry Research

107. Given this background, high priority areas for industrial forestry research includes

o Policy research aimed at addressing inappropriate timber concession licensing, timber taxation and reforestation policies;

o Research aimed at improving the efficiency of smaller-scale rural wood consuming industries;

o Improved utilization of existing wood resources;

o Intensified management of existing natural forests;

o Increasing the productivity of fast growing industrial plantations.

(a) Industrial Forest Policy Research

108. Repetto (1988) has analyzed the losses that are incurred by many tropical hardwood exporting countries in which timber stumpage taxation policies fail to capture the economic rental value of the resource.

109. The situation in Indonesia and the Philippines is typical of several other developing countries i.e. official government rent capture constitutes a relatively low proportion of economic rent values. The potential exists significantly to increase stumpage taxes without severely undermining profitability of the timber trade.

110. The same study also quantifies the loss and wastage caused by a precipitate shift from log export to domestic processing. A high priority for policy research should be site specific assessments of the scope for raising timber prices, for introducing greater stumpage differentials between more and less valuable species and examining the trade-offs between log export and domestic processing. Also policy incentives that could stimulate increased private sector interest in reforestation and forest management. - 44 -

Table 26

GOVERNMENT RENT CAPTURE IN TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTION (US$millions)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Potential Actual Official Country Rent from Rent from Government (4) (3) (4) (3) and Period Loa Harvest Loa Harvest Rent Capture () (2)

Indonesia 4,954 4,409 1,644 37.3 33.2 1979-82

Sabah 2,198 2,094 1,703 81.3 77.5 1979-82

Ghana -- -- 29 38.0 ** 1971-74

Philippines 1,505 1,033 171 16.5 11.4 1979-82

(1) Potential rent assumes that all harvested logs are allocated to uses (direct export, sawmills, plymills) that yield the largest net economic rent.

(2) Actual rent totals rents arising from the actual disposal of harvested logs.

(3) Rent capture total timber royalties, export taxes, and other official fees and charges.

Source: Country case studies. Repettos Forest for the Trees (1988)

111. As an illustration of the potential benefit to be derived from such policy reform, Repetto's study concluded that between 1979 and 1982 the Indonesian Government sacrificed over $2 billion in forest revenues. Later World Bank calculations estimated that increasing the current stumpage rates on non-valuable timber by $10 per cubic meter (equivalent to 5 percent of average FOB value of export logs) could more than double the levels of government resources currently allocated to forest management and conservation and still leave Indonesian logging companies a reasonable profit margin. - 45 *

112. A recent 'Friends of the Earth' proposal (Thomson 1988) which has received World Bank and other aid agency endorsement, advocates introduction of a coding system that would restrict exports of tropical hardwood forest products to those derived from tropical forests that have been placed under sustained yield management.

(b) Village Level Forest Industries

113. A recent PAO study (1987) of small scale forest industries pointed out that despite their significance in rural economies, the amount of past research devoted to ways and means of supporting such small scale industries and helping them to increase their productivity has been minimal. Recommended research needs included: market demand; adequacy and sustainability of raw material supply; influence of government regulations and pricing policies on input supply; technical skill; and, management weakness (cost control, etc.).

(c) Forest Products Utilization

114. The Research needs to support large-scale forest industries are already well known and have been well documented by IUFRO (1986). They are strongly supported by the private sector (particularly by the pulp and paper industry). Spectacular advances have been made in the 1980's in developed countries in improved utilization of timber and forest wastes. Many of the technologies now currently used in the developed world could be rapidly transferred to to the tropics with high economic pay-off--Buckman (1988).

115. Economic returns to investment in forest products research can be very high (in excess of 30 percent). Small sawing and planing machines that convert defective material into small dimension stock for furniture, joinery, and flooring can reduce waste. In the Philippines and Sri Lanka, low-cost solar heated kilns designed by the U.S. Forest Service Products Laboratory have demonstrated the ability to reduce waste in drying. In Kenya (Keen 1969) has demonstrated the potential of timber engineering to ensure more widespread use of timber buildings. Levy (1982) has reviewed timber preservation techniques which in the wet humid tropics can extend the life of a wooden building by 5-10 years and halve the time a village needs to spend on building and rebuilding.

116. There are some tropical forest product research problems that require special attention. For example, the percentage of high-density wood in tropical forests exceeds that from temperate forests. However, most processing technologies were developed in the temperate countries. Thus, processing technology will need to be modified to accommodate high density timbers as a wider range of tropical tree species is used. - 46 *

117. Ut.ization technologies with high pay-off includet

o Power backup roll for veneer production (which permits higher veneer recovery and peeling of difficult species);

o Press drying in paper making (which permits use of short fiber hardwoods and less energy consumption)t

o Wood preservation (to overcome decay and termite problems);

o Improved wood engineering for cost savings and other benefits in housing production;

o Uses for lesser-known species;

o Vaferboard and other reconstituted wood products technologies (permit use of many different species and treatment for fire, decay, and insect resistance);

o Improved harvesting and transport technologies (which can lower costs and reduce environmental damage from logging).

118. The Madison Forest Products Laboratory in the USA and Forest Research Institute of Malaysia (FRIM) have been leaders in the forest products research field. Of special interest has been the progress made in both institutions in increased utilization of so called secondary hardwood (often referred to as weed') species. Systematic research by FRIM in Malaysia for example has increased the number of species in common use from less than 100 in 1950 to over 600 in 1985. (Salleh Mohd. Nor, Nov. 1988).

119. Ten years ago, rubberwood was unknown as a commercial species in Malay:ia. Research on species properties, processing potential and utilization led the way to markets for rubberwood. As a result Malaysia now exporta over 250,000 m3 a year valued at more than US$10 million.

(d) Natural Forest Management

120. Despite more than 50 years of continuous effort there still remains much uncertainty about the technical and economic viability of natural forest management systems for tropical hardwood forests. The research priorities have been well reviewed by Wadsworth (1982). An area of particular weakness has been economic research to evaluate the trade- offs between alternative management systems for maintaining a sustainable crop of desirable timber species whilst at the same time minimizing ecological damage from logging. Research projects being carried out by FRIM Malaysia (1988) in Indonesia with assistance from FAO, and in Cote d'Ivoire by CTFT and Caisse Centrale (1985) are examples of the sort of research that needs to be more widely replicated. - 47 -

121. Prospects for increasing the productivity of natural forest indigenous species via genetic improvement techniques such as vegetative propagation and cloning have been demonstrated by the work of Leakey at the Institute of Terrestial Ecology (1987) working with West African species such as Triplochiton and Terminalia. Similar promising results are being achieved by the Sabah Softwoods Enterprise with FAO assistance working on the species Gmelina, a fast growing tropical hardwood.

122. The past emphasis in natural forest management research on production of timber has diverted attention away from the very important role that tropical forests play in producing literally hundreds of other valuable products such as food, fisheries and medicines. As Repetto (1988) notes in relation to Indonesias

"Timber exploitation has hidden opportunity costs. As forests disappear, so do such valuable products as rattan, resin, sandalwood, meat, honey, natural silk, and pharmaceutical and cosmetic compounds, which can be harvested sustainably from tropical forests and exported. In 1982, these non-wood forest products brought in $120 million despite little government attention, (more than the export values of copper, aluminum, tea, pepper, and tobacco). Most of the $120 million created income and employment in local economies, whereas much of the export value of wood products and logs is retained by timber companies as profit. Yet, government continues to consider wood the primary-forest resource.,

Research needs for non-timber products are reviewed in Section (G) of this paper.

(e) Plantation Forestry

123. The scope for fast growing industrial plantations to help reduce pressure on natural forests has been well demonstrated both in Kenya and Zambia. Within the last 25 years the timber industries of both these countries have shifted from almost complete former dependence on logging of natural forest to dependence on logs from fast growing cypress and pine plantations that cover less than one tenth of the total forest area. Large parts of Kenya's indigenous forests for example have now been taken out of circulation and set aside as national parks or nature reserves.

124. A few developing countries such as Brazil and Chile have an opportunity to sustain and expand a vigorous and sustainable export trade in industrial construction grade timber, panels and/or pulp and paper based . 48 * on raw material from fast growing plantations. Chile in the last 20 years has established almost 1 million hectares of fast growing pine plantations which today support an export based timber and pulp and paper industry generating exports of more than US$500 million a year.

125. Similarly Brazil's 4 million hectares of fast growing Eucalyptus and Pine plantations established during the last 15 years already meet 60 percent of the countries' own industrial timber needs and sustain some $600 million a year in foreign exchange earnings. (Brazil has become the world's sixth largest hardwood pulp producer).

126. Two key areas for concentration of plantation research are, (a) tree breeding improvement and (b) the sustainability of plantation forestry in the tropics. The past experience of CTFT in the Congo PR and that of the Aracruz Company in Brazil is particularly relevant. The Aracruz Company has succeeded within one generation in increasing plantation yields from 30 cubic meters to 60 cubic meters per hectare per annum.

Chart 8

The potential for Increased productivity through geetic Improveent of trees has been demonstrated In Brazil

Growers: Rooted cuttings UCK 1981 trial results o""tat

S0

Seedlings (1974 to 1978) Republic of South Africa and Zimoabwe source 10/

Brazil ource o

Age I yeats)

Source 4fs Santa$. Nov Magno A evotcao asosouss florestat na Aracrul 6*ores S A linOuoiS"0 manuaC,Iet. AraCru. &S Stiai '963 - 49 -

127. A possible problem area in the area of plantation forestry is its sustainability over several rotations. Chijioke (1980) has reviewed the research issues relating to the sustainability of plantation forestry in lowland tropical humid forests. Recent work by Evans (1988) for example reached encouraging conclusions about the prospects for sustainable industrial plantation forestry using fast growing Pinus species planted in East and Southern Africa savannas and grasslands.

Table 28

SWAZILAND

Productivity of Third Rotation Pinus Patula at Six Years

First Rotation Hean Height Volume per ha. (m) (mS)

First 6.65 50.0 Second 7.93 50.34 Third 8.31 52.37

Source: Evans (1988), Unasylva Vol. 40, No.159.

128. Similar research into the sustainability of successive rotationsof fast growing hardwood in acid tropical rain forest soils is so far almost totally lacking and is a significant constraint to acceleration of plantation forestry in the humid tropical forest zone. - 50 -

G. RESEARCH NEEDS FOR CONSERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

129. Tropical forests produce an extraordinarily wide range of products essential to human survival, health and trade. In addition to industrial wood, natural forests (particularly tropical rainforests) provide a myriad of other useful products such as essential oils, gums, latexes, resins, tannins, steriods, waxes, fibers and pharmaceutical products. In Indonesia, for example, many food plants now taken for granted (including vegetables, fruits, nuts, edible oils, spices and flavorings) are derived from tropical forests. More than 50 percent of modern medicines come from the natural world and a large proportion of these from tropical plants. Plotkin (1988) has documented the importance of tropical forest plant based foods particularly for the subsistence and medicinal needs of forest dwelling tribal peoples. It has been estimated by Myers (1984), that no fewer than 1,400 tropical forest species may have potential anti-cancer properties. The most well-known is a Madagascar plant the 'Rosy Periwinkle' from which is derived a drug used for the treatment of leukemia. Sales of that drug exceed US$100 million per year world-wide. Smith, Plucknett and Williams (1987) have reviewed the extent to which many important agricultural crops depend on forest derived germ plasm for broadening the genetic base, maintaining yields and enhancing their capacity for resistance to insect pests and diseases.

(a) Under-utilized Tropical Food Plants, Insects and Wildlife

130. Despite the fact that tropical rainforests are the richest ecosystems on earth and contain about half of the world's animal and plant species, less than 20 percent have been identified. Less than 1 percent have been chemically screened for potential medicinal properties. Of the 250,000 plant species on earth, only one in ten has been investigated in a cursory way to assess its utilization benefits; only one in a hundred has been examined in detail--Miller (1984).

131, The case for intensified scientific and ethnobotanical research into identification of species and into the complex inter-relationships prevailing in tropical forest ecosystems has been well documented by Raven (1987), Wilson (1985), Plotkin (1988), Hadley (1986), UNESCO (1988), and others.

132. Past tropical rainforest inventory research has been almost exclusively focussed on timber production options. Little research has been done in relation to the critical role that secondary forest products such as foods, fibers, medicinal products, insects and wildlife play in meeting essential needs of indigenous populations. Recent studies by Arnold and Falconer (1987) identified literally hundreds of forest plants and animals that are used for food subsistence and medicinal purposes in Africa (Table 28). - 51 -

Table 28

UTILIZATION OF FOREST FOOD PLANTS IN AFRICA

Region Number of Edible Source Plant Species used for Local Consumption

Sahel zone 800 Becker (1986) Tanzania 126 Brivetti (1979) Nigeria 150 Okfar (1985)

133. Research needs include the contribution of such forest based foods to food security and into ways and means of sustaining their productivity. A recent research proposal for Ghana is an example of what is needed (Montilliou 1988).

134. Many otherwise .obscure animals species, particularly insects, should also be protected to maintain or enhance agricultural output. For example, the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) is pollinated in the wild in Africa by a weevil, Elaeidobius kamerunicus. The oil palm was introduced into Malaysia in 1917 without the weevil and required costly, inefficient, labor-intensive hand pollination. In 1980-81 the pollinator was collected from its native habitat in the forests of Cameroon and brought to Malaysia; it promptly boosted fruiting in oil palm trees to 80 percent and led to a 12 percent increase in palm oil production. This improvement was worth approximately US$57 million in foreign exchange in the first year alone- -Goodland (1985).

(b) Preservation of Natural Forest Germ Plasm

135. Tropical forests are an invaluable source of germ plasm. Forest derived plant germ plasm has the potential to contribute to increased agriculture by broadening the genetic base of essential agriculture crops and increasing potential for increased yield.

136. Some 147 perennial crop plants (excluding medicinals and ornamentals) have been domesticated in tropical forests. Eighteen of the more important crops are summarized in Table 29. - 52 -

Table 29

SOME MAJOR CROPS DOMESTICATED IN TROPICAL FORESTS IN

LATIN AMERICA, AFRICA AND ASIA, WITH THEIR MAIN USES.

Major Uses Crop Scientific Name LATIN AMERICA

Cacao Theobroma cacao Drink, confectionary, suntan oil. Avocado Persea americana Fruit eaten Guava Psidium, quaJava Fruit eaten, made into drinks, ice cream, and jam Rubber Hevea brasiliensis Tires, caulking, weatherprooofing. shock absorbers Leucaena Leucaena leucocephala Firewood, fodder Calliandra Calliandra calothyrsus Firewood, fodder, erosion control Caribbean pine Pinus caribea Pulp Cashew Anacardium occidentale Nut eaten, fruit made into drink

AFRICA

Arabica coffee Coffea arabica Beverage, caffeine extracted for other drinks Robusta coffee Coffea canephora Beverage, caffeine extracted for other drinks Oil Palm Elaeis quineensis Oil from fruit and kernel used for cooking, margarine, and soap

ASIA

Mango Mansifera indica Fruit eaten, made into drink, ice cream, chutney Breadfruit Artocarpus altilis Fruit eaten Jackfruit Artocarpus heterophyllus Fruit eaten Carambola Averrhoa carambola Fruit eaten, made into drink, jam Teak Teztona grandis Timber Nutmeg Kyristica fragrans Culinary spice Clove Eugenia caryophyllus Culinary spice, flavoring for cigarettes. - 53 -

137. Retaining a biologically diverse source of forest germ plasm for sustaining crop yields is a matter of vital concern to sustaining future agriculture, and in particular perennial agriculture cash-crop production (oil palm, cocoa, rubber, etc.). The case for gene pool preservation and priority areas for future research have been recently reviewed by Smith, Plucknett and Williams (1987).

138. As they observed,

'None of the tropical forest-born crops is a 'staff of life' in the sense of cereals such as wheat, rice, or maize, or even major root crops such as cassava or sweet potatc, but they nevertheless underpin the economies of many parts of the Third World and provide valuable dietary supplements in the form of vitamins, protein, and carbohydrates.*

139. Rubber and African oil palm dominate the economy of Malaysia, for example, and these perennial crops provide significant income and employment in other parts of Southeast Asia. Coffee production is a major foreign exchange earner for dozens of countries, particularly in Latin America. Yet the germplasm base of these tropical crops is poorly understood and may be shaky in some cases. Vast plantations of coffee, cacao, and rubber, for example, are genetically homogeneous, an open invitation to damage by pests and diseases.

140. New challenges to perennial crop production in the tropics are constantly surfacing. Coffee rust arrived in Brazil from Africa in 1970 and reached northern South America by the early 1980s. Coffee rust depresses yields and may put a severe dent in coffee production in the Americas just as the disease halted commercial coffee production in Sri Lanka in the 1870s.

141. Since 1960, a new virulent form of another fungal disease, Sigatoka, has emerged and is threatening banana production in Latin America and Africa, and may require a major turnover of varieties, just as Panama wilt disease forced the early retirement of the once widely-planted Gros Michel banana variety in the early part of this century. The ability of crop breeders to respond to such challenges rests in large part on the genetic resources they can fall back on to generate new, resistant varieties.

142. The experience of recent years has repeatedly underscored the importance of maintaining a broad pool of genetic resources. As the green revolution progressed during the 1960s, for example, scientists found that to avoid increasing vulnerability of crops to pests and disease, the new super-strains had to be crossed back to other cultivated and wild strains to develop particular kinds of pest resistance or particular environmental adaptations. . 54 -

143. In 1970, to cite a famous occurrence, 70 percent of the seed corn grown by US farmers owed its ancestry to six inbred lines. When a leaf fungus blighted cornfields from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, America's great corn belt was threatened. The disease eliminated 15 percent of the entire crop and as much as half the crop in several states of the South. pushing corn prices up by 20 percent and causing losses to farmers and increased costs to consumers worth more than $2 billion. The damage was halted with the aid of various kinds of blight- resistant germ plasm with a genetic ancestry that derived from Mexico.

144. The forest based germ plasm resources of several of the crops listed in Table 29 are threatened with extinction because of deforestation. Nigeria's population, which stood at 105 million in 1986, is expected to nearly double by the end of this century and burgeon to 500 million before it stabilizes. Nigeria's tropical rainforests contain unique wild gene pools of African oil palm.

145. Although population growth rates are a little lower in Latin America, population pressures are building on forest resources. Mexico's population is projected to soar to nearly 200 million, some two and a half times its 1986 level before it levels off. Perhaps only a few patches of tropical forest along the Caribbean seaboard and in Oaxaca are likely to survive by then. At least 18 crops have all or part of their wild genepools in the lowland tropical forests of Mexico. Significant portions of wild avocado germplasm, among other crops, will be one casualty of continued deforestation in Mexico.

146. Ethiopia, is rapidly losing its few remaining patches of forest that contain the last world's last wild stands of arabica coffee germplasm. Largely due to population pressure, the unsatiable demand for agricultural land, fodder and fuelvood and inappropriate land tenure and fiscal incentive policies, the forests of the Brazilian Amazon, which contain the only wild genepools of natural rubber, are coming under increasing pressure.

147. The research needs are clear--an all out effort is needed to identify, preserve and enhance this valuable rainforest derived germplasm before it disappears forever. ' 55 -

(c) Policy Research for Saving the Tropical Rain Forest

148. The proposals contained in the Tropical Forest Action Plan for policy research relating to conservation of biological diversity of rainforests and other ecosystems are currently the weakest link in that Plan and steps are being taken to remedy that. Experience from the 1980s has clearly demonstrated that many of the potential solutions to tropical deforestation will have to come as policy interventions from outside the forest sector.

149. The wide range of conservation and development oriented interventions that will be necessary if the tropical rainforests are to be saved is summarised in Chart 9. Increased support for agricultural buffer-zone development, for example, could provide some of the 200 million people who are already living in or adjacent to forests, with an alternative to further forest encroachment. Agro-forestry farming systems appropriate to the humid forest zone could help to sustain farm productivity--Sanchez (1987), Lal (1988).

150. Strong emphasis on policy reform such as government support for land consolidation/and land titling programs, could provide shifting cultivators with an alternative to further migration into marginal forest soils. A key factor in the success of the Philippines Government PICOP reforestation program was the willingness of the Government to grant so- called *illegal squatters* long-term security of land tenure and the necessary credit and extension that enabled them to switch from slash and burn agriculture to cash crop tree farming. Similarly, in West Bengal and Gujarat States in India, allocation of government owned forest land to landless families has provided an incentive to reforestation of agricultural wastelands (World Bank, 1988).

151. Indonesia's Forestry Department has recently drawn up terms of reference for a policy study of shifting cultivation patterns and is working towards a better understanding of sustainable land-use options for the forest areas that have been taken up for settlement under its Transmigration Program.

152. Hihar (1988) has reviewed policy reform options for reducing pressure on forests in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically he identified$ phasing out of fiscal incentives for livestock projects; a moratorium on use of fiscal incentive funds for development of pig iron projects in the greater Carajas region (that would destroy large areas of forest for charcoal production); refusal to grant land titles to speculators in forest lands; allocation of longer-term concessions to individuals or producer associations undertaking environmentally sound extractive activities in designated areas (e.g., rubber tapping); and, increased effort to improve administration and collection of taxes that could have beneficial effects on land-use. - 56 -

Chart 9

mi ALED-tE-C.0XE Acr0K m~I Fm SAVDC 1WICA. AI RT

(12M--- Strtural ajusrunt laru incorporatin crditions that WilU help to rMlieve presue n rainforest

POPulatton Reservatton, 1eal plani/ protection & utgrat~o/ scentific ie ntory retlt of rinforest lads

(101 (2) Innovtve financing Preparat o cmntry cne- ffchans. Interntionua vation sratge & suport for liatin to dtsc rae infratruture & gmnt of trade in 4ilmfe products conservatin ae at'1 parks

(9N (3) Suppo t for cnservacti Diversin o Bof nvtntg awares &ed~inm PIwDCIE i tranportation, hdro- progra with special RA gS electric Cineral xploratio referae to N4 involVe- A &agrlAtural ute nt m*ntn pocy dtalogu aY fra& onervation am

Suprt for de~eOpmn .upor for dav't of tuffersns of cmpensatory swuples aroun na~ra forest that will of fue*oo 6 ~nu ~ra pr~vd shdmir culttvators tdth ood that ill rele an alternative to ftl frest prear cn naural forest e crac t Investn In perennial tres crops (coces, (7) offee, oilpam rubbr, tea) Energy conervation(5 *Alternatve ftals Suport for te v* agroforesCry *Tim darue, trals of ally-cropping & otter ~ood stoves, kins niltiple croppn syste that °%tter utilization offer prospect for smutanable of loggig wastes faing Cn acid forest soils (61 Policy reform Source: Interventions *Tiber c sson lic=es for Relieving *TLiber twation Pressure on Ld tams Tropical Rain- 'tad taumre forests, Spears, *Træ plantir< iucentives World Bank, 1987 *l n cnracts Domstic proein Naional accoutim - 57 -

153. Policy research along the above lines, if followed up by intensive policy dialogue and government comitment to appropriate policy reforms, could make a decisive contribution to saving not only the Amazon basin forests but also the tropical rainforests of Africa and Asia. Chart 10 suggests a range of key policy issues that need to be further researched.

Chart 10

TFAP Policy and Economics Related Research Needs i Relation to the Recomnendations of Bellag o Ii

i r:'«dat' 2 1 ib. arttutturp f~ee2d1 t förett IaUstre 1. tf the e lotcelatna ible ~satiels for subtitta, l s hetag Sc~rred due ~rtt t e.g., tet naeutta hetweeft tftet ud efiltallhåhl* tv18s Osforettion and t~it MS ~gStig *914t40 prodtion _griculturaWMau i4 udott$1 ¢~frgtsto~een ter få*losomt 2telat everesplaitationto n e .vatrsfedugm -rs,rerlte dtstrihuttma heefflIet 0 tsta 8. incatrorattag -relattag VAP acIsetties -feilet# fqeweed to nattomal segritflutral ud other . fndrst~d*g the role of receMesdations for te national develöp~nt energy pleas, aeeds, peliles la relation te Itdstry la atfoal action toto national gal sources forett proteetien gots deveo ont devileat plans r.atitdttoaal ~emises oeuanti,n thebnefitt of -telt e aIl sts1o laber for incoaroratiff protet on to th ottn Iatenstv tree-hased 1adustry 3. Pronotlag t tyt -stirati f*csatle -ouargy arlng plittes -reta o' cnservaton 19, -t e co~stims ud local participalteft pollets 4nd umehantm -klteatlvc Itefties ~14r

g. Pitcy reförs -lnd use gulattons -euergy pietag potites -alternative gIcelteral -stpage pristetag pelltiet Mand ud trae terre -tenure refors tasation peltets meneesson poltjes, poltees -ret of goermnt and -1vd temata refos _tteber trade pelletis (togs -. 0CIM pltefes reglata and anhhfdastte -heffer Ieni pellettes va. ICessjfs et -adetsltratve refem prtc etn sa* Ot.) d. Pretorel7 - ttim t po peles alernatIV faeel potenttalt -9811CIes tIgardIag esaNIe COes eeSGIGG t1IO teot", rt -rote of Icleral er -pol lites regardlne harvest. paråt. etc. Ccoentes or ~edstr*etlie. lavd ae tensiteatten .g.. savanna vedslans -detertalng eritteal sustötovd ild anagiment taeun sit reserves 1. Integration e d d stratlv n saat s etrt or e png .e a t rl uso foeastry Inte ef u o =~*e -a astrn*lef #*U1* &t*atleo h **tr aro*n ~##1va 'f fr at it otrs be Iand.. tnt*gration of feresry of tåergy pol lttao d -epaming r~estretive -1,4tat98d 09ld f~try *eil udar4 utr pr~gem måe$ et IamlS an*ta ös hof fer tems 8. Mhnitortag ef -nettoeg rote of en-fem -rola of felwed ta -ho. to sa nattertn -tpept of ledustrial t otal v*adtatv t~ te defemta ei. results In ama effeitive do alomat on deremtation de*ertttattan 0*4%n domn diatttton önrattla dV tMJtOI aaed förit *egådtlön ud deflestatto Wests w to devl1 htter fört varning s1:g1414

u sc Ste ta the e of the tab# hee14 be prefacod by: *gsaerh Ss seedid I Reteesa datns a tstrefgth~log researh>). te (erdiaatlg Intaernational m ... fölleom h the tte fta tag tahle. it hed bo 98114 that möny of te ation) ad 1 (eliom-M) are not iIgded. $te they are subsWOd under Is Itow$ listed f~qure, a syft~tti et policy. nconnmtc$ ud teChålcal research ta in she bor of the table. otter t.,rtach öns..ra tut Pr.d.ctIv.1,,ca be dsed I.e,pe,st,oa,pnnia, and odertotens aaas. n m n* fVfth TfAp area of center. institutions. Is sub~ened UthbI the bdy ef the table .e., tIstitutta dveleint ts assged to be fart of the sGsiO tor resolvtsg itsees relöaed te the other areas of tentern. - 58 -

H. PRIORITIZATION OF RESEARCHs POTENTIAL GAINS FROM AN EXPANDED RESEARCH PROGRAM

154. Given the extremely wide range of research topics that would be required effectively to underpin the TPAP, prioritization of research topics is obviously necessary. Earlier studies of the weakness of past forestry research (e.g. World Bank/FAO 1981) have pointed out the contrasting approaches between past agriculture and forestry research experience. The Green Revolution came about largely as a consequence of the single minded concentration of research effort toward increasing the productivity of two major crops (rice and wheat). The main thrust was towards plant breeding. International CGIAR Centres such as IRRI and CIMMYT played a lead role in these plant breeding programs.

155. The contribution of the CGIAR Research Centers to the Green Revolution has been recently reviewed by Baum (1986). Ai the areas sown to new varieties increased so did production. Rice grew by 2.4 percent annually from the mid 60s to mid 70s compared with only 0.9 percent annually in the early 60s, wheat by 4 percent compared with 2.4 percent. Over the half the increase in production was estimated to be due to improved yields.

156. In sharp contrast to this experience forestry research to date has produced nothing even remotely similar to the Green Revolution. Part of the problem has been the proliferation of research effort over a very wide range of topics. Recognizing tais dilema, the Bellagio Forestry Research Task Force has recommended concentrating forestry research on five major areas:

o Forestry research aimed at sustaining food production, improved food security and protection of soil and water resources.

o Tree breeding and improvement programs.

o Utilization forest products research.

o Conservation of natural forest ecosystems and biological diversity.

o Policy research aimed at addressing the underlying causes of deforestation and formulation of incentives that will encourage indigenous peoples involvement in tropical forest management and reforestation. - 59 -

157. The more promising research technologies that have obvious potential to contribute to the above 5 areas of research have already been summarized in the Executive Summary to this paper.

158. Additional investment in the above priority research areas has the potential for making major contributions to human welfare and to sustaining development efforts in other fields such as agriculture, hydropower, and industrial development. It is impossible to estimate in quantitative, monetary terms what those global benefits might amount to over time, although, as indicated earlier in the case of specific research programs the economic and financial rates of return can be substantial. Nevertheless, it is possible to provide a qualitative picture of the nature and rough order of magnitude of the benefits in terms of numbers of people potentially benefiting from an expanded research program.

159. For example, in relation to food production and food security people in the Sahel and the Himalayan regions rely on trees as a significant source of livestock fodder. In these areas, the potential exists for some 120 million people to benefit from improved fodder production in addition to benefiting from fuelvood gains. Examples cited earlier also indicate the potential for shelterbelt research to contribute significantly to increasing food security for people living in some of the most fragile and hostile agricultural environments. As noted, net crop increases in the range of 15-20 percent can be achieved due to windbreak effects in addition to the fuelwood, shade and fodder benefits associated with use of multi-purpose shelterbelt trees.

160. In addition to fodder, fuel and shelter benefits, the potential exists to reduce erosion and downstream losses in irrigated agriculture, power production, fish production, etc., by combining results from tree improvement research with results of more policy oriented integrated watershed management reseatch. The comoination would provide the technologies and policy rationale for introduction of sustainable land use systems that not only would benefit upstream land users, but also downstream landusers and others affected by erosion, flooding and polluted water.

161. As developing countries expand their reliance on irrigation (water) to increase agricultural productivity and food security the need to improve upland watershed management also increases. Oftentimes, the prevention of future losses (due to watershed deterioration) does not receive the same attention as expansion of present benefits, e.g., crop increases, even though loss prevention is fully as important from a human welfare point of view. Significant reductions in the cost of soil conservation programs can be achieved by use of techologies such as Vetiver grass planting. - 60 -

162. Many of the 306 million people who live in moderately or severely desertified arid regions could benefit from an expansion of the types of arid zone management research illustrated earlier. Low cost management of natural savanna woodlands could provide fuel, fodder and many other locally important products in greater abundance, and, most importantly, do so on an ecologically sound and sustainable basis.

163. Much of the research suggested by the task force does in fact relate to the objective of changing land uses towards more sustainable approaches that can raise people out of the state of subsistence living associated with pushing the land beyond its ecologically sustainable potential. Although the benefits are not immediate, such changes could have far reaching social and economic effects on future generations.

164. In the area of fuelwood supply extrapolating from the results of past research cited earlier, then it is apparent that the potential exists through research on tree selection, improvement and establishment, for example, to more than double over the next 15 to 20 years the average productivity of trees used in the tropics to produce fuel. Aggressive application of such research results could benefit at least 200 to 400 million people out of the more than 3,000 million people FA0 projects will face acute scarcity or deficits of fuelwood past the turn of the century (FA0 1983).

165. For the above types and magnitudes of benefits to be achieved, the results of research on agroforestry systems and policy research on tenure issues and pricing policies also would have to be applied. The close relationships between the issues addressed by the proposed set of research priorities cannot be overstressed. For example, significant expansion of welfare, particularly of the rural poor, cannot be expected from application of the results of tree breeding research alone. Policy reforms based on sound information also are needed to ensure that the poorer segment of the population gains. Consideration of interdependencies is the rule rather than the exception in research success stories when they are looked at in terms of human welfare rather than technical progress alone.

166. Although the benefits are very difficult to quantify, research on conservation and management of tropical forest ecosystems will make a major contribution to safeguarding a major proportion of the world's biological diversity. This will help ensure that present and future generations will have the opportunity to retain and broaden the genetic base for food crops, medicines, industrial products, and other useful goods yet to be discovered among the millions of unknown plant and animal species in tropical forests. Based on past experience with the domestication of tropical plants, it seems evident that this is a critical resource which merits protection. The more that research can discover additional benefits to be derived from this resource, the more its protection and management can be justified. * 61 -

167. Research related to industrial development has the potential of reducing import bills for forest products in developing countries and, in some cases, of increasing expor, revenues. Chile and Brazil are two excellent examples of countries which have systematically researched market opportunities, wood utilization potentials, and quality controls and have developed major export sectors for forest products. Chile this past year exceeded US$500 million in exports of forest products.

168. Tree selection and improvement research has already shown the potentials for reducing cost per cubic meter of wood in the tropics to levels that are competitive anywhere in the world. A.t the same time, lower costs, if passed on to consumers, imply lower paper prices. Low cost paper is a positive factor in educational programs that could potentially raise the literacy levels of hundreds of millions of people.

169. Natural forest management research can point the way to opportunities for increased sustained yield management of tropical forests and thus, through economic arguments, to policy reforms that could reduce their destruction. These benefits from such reductions have already been enumerated.

170. The above discussion of gains from research merely touches on some of the benefits which could flow from an expanded and intensified program of research dealing 4ith tropical forests. In the process of refining plans for the concrete actions which need to be taken to expand research, it will be desirable to quantify more accurately the relative levels and types of costs and benefits involved in different types of research. For example, one widely held concern is that benefits may not reach the poor. Deliberate actions will be needed to ensure a desirable distribution of the benefits flowing from improved technologies. RBERENCES

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