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Is Xero in the BUY Zone?

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Is Xero in the BUY Zone? Monday 15 March 2021 Is Xero in the BUY zone? I don’t think all tech stocks are born equal. What I’m really saying is Apple is very different to Zoom, while Xero is not like Afterpay. They’re lumped in the same tech group and can get sold off when tech loses friends but this sometimes silly sell-off could be creating opportunities. For the last month, tech stocks have been in the twilight zone and Xero has dropped from its highs. Does this mean it’s passed over into the buy zone? Sincerely, Peter Switzer Inside this Issue 02 Is Xero in the buy zone? Is Xero in the buy zone? by Peter Switzer 05 Does environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) investing stack up? And what’s the best ETF? Does ESG investing stack up? by Paul Rickard 08 5 companies at the forefront of the hydrogen push FMG, HZR, LCK, HXG & PH2 Is Xero in the buy by James Dunn 11 My “HOT” stock: QAN zone? Qantas by Peter Switzer by Maureen Jordan 02 12 Buy, Hold, Sell – What the Brokers Say 12 upgrades, 5 downgrades by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before Switzer Super Report is published by Switzer Financial Group Pty Ltd AFSL No. 286 531 acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the Level 4, 10 Spring Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000 individual's objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek T: 1300 794 893 F: (02) 9222 1456 appropriate professional advice. Is Xero in the buy zone? by Peter Switzer I don’t think all tech stocks are born equal. What I’m and 2022, when CFOs and business owners will be really saying is Apple is very different to Zoom, while more keen to spend to innovate to raise productivity Xero is not like Afterpay. They’re lumped in the same and, ultimately, profits. tech group and can get sold off when tech loses friends but this sometimes silly sell-off could be The five-day chart of Xero shows that there has been creating opportunities. new support for the stock since last Tuesday, surging 9.5% in four days, while the overall market was up Last week I told you that Elmo Software (ELO) was only 0.8% for the week. Some of that gain might be seen as a tech stock that benefitted from the because tech stocks did well when the bond market stay-at-home stocks phase of 2020. But the CEO, became less concerned about inflation, but by Friday Danny Lessem disagreed, arguing that many (US time), it started to rekindle its concerns and tech business owners and CFOs were not spending stocks were sold off. money on innovation and new software with all the worries of the Coronavirus last year. XERO (XRO) 5-days He thinks as business becomes more normalised, his online products will be more in demand. So this business selling HR, payroll and expense reduction solutions should perform better in 2021, compared to 2020. This is what happened to ELO’s share price last week. Elmo Software (ELO) Anyone invested in Xero (like yours truly) has to hope that the market sees the company as a business stock that will benefit from reopening rather than a tech stock that was over hyped. Certainly, the one-year chart below shows XRO has gone for a big ride in 2020 going from $68 to $157 after the Coronavirus crash. However, it was an $85 stock before the crash, so if my reopening argument holds, then there has to be On that basis, I’m wondering if Xero is in a similar some real upside with the Australian, US and UK position as ELO? Is Xero a business that will benefit economies bound to boom in the next few years from a more normal business environment in 2021 ahead. Monday 15 March 2021 02 For interest sake, this is what the analysts think about It does have a pile of debt but CEO Steve Xero’s more near-term prospects. The consensus Vamos says he’s on the acquisition trail. view on FNArena is $105. Macquarie has a $125 Rising interest rates — but that’s a furphy for target and Citi does too. The lowest target share price this company. was UBS with a target of $79.50. It’s seen as a tech stock, being in the WAAAX group of stocks that have gained on Xero one-year the back of the US-based FAANG stocks’ surge in price in recent years. It’s in the MSCI Global Standard Index, which helped its stock price last year but this is now bringing it down as the top 100 tech stocks on the Nasdaq have fallen about 10% in recent times The small business market here and in NZ could be saturated. The UK experiment has been successful but the US could be a harder nut to crack. US small businesses aren’t as solidly into the cloud and that could be a hold back factor for What are some of the supportive views out there for Xero. XRO? Try these: Can’t get this out of my mind The Simply Wall Street view starts with reminding us what a great company Xero has A unnamed but well-known hedge fund short seller been. The share price climbed 691% in five told me (off the record) that he was a big holder of years. In the last 5 years, Xero saw its XRO shares but he’d sold a lot, though he was still a revenue grow at 29% a year. That’s “well big shareholder in the company. In a throwaway line, above most pre-profit companies”. (Simply he said he thought that, over time, “this could be a Wall St.) $600 company!” They also like that company insiders have been buying XRO share over the past 12 He could be wrong. He could be trying to use me to months or more. raise the share price. Or he might be honestly looking The most recent total shareholder return was down the track at a very good company. 58% over one year and “that’s better than the annualised return of 51% over half a A share price rise of about 700% in five years, and a decade, implying that the company is doing chart like this on revenue, tells me that Xero looks like better recently.” (Simply Wall St.) a decent punt at current prices. The company recently announced the acquisition of small business lender, Waddle, for $80 million to accelerate its growth. In the six months to September 2020, Xero announced it had slashed spending on advertising and marketing in response to the pandemic, which would slow growth. Even then, Xero added 168,000 new subscribers during the period and grew free cash flow from NZ$4.8 million to NZ$54.3 million. (Motley Fool) Here are the challenges for Xero’s share price: Monday 15 March 2021 03 Source: Simply Wall Street I wasn’t saying this when the share price was $157 but now I am. But I’m a long-term investor who buys quality companies when markets are negative on these good operations. Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regard to your circumstances. Monday 15 March 2021 04 Does environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) investing stack up? And what’s the best ETF? by Paul Rickard Last week, Betashares launched its eighth ‘ethical’ engaged in negative ESG risks. The avoids include exchange traded fund (ETF). To trade on the ASX fossil fuels, gambling, tobacco, uranium, alcohol, junk under the ticker ERTH, the Betashares Climate foods, chemicals of concern, payday lending or who Change Innovation Fund tracks the performance of have a lack of gender diversity at Board level. an index that provides exposure to 100 of the largest global companies that are at the forefront of tackling The index preferences “sustainability leaders” today’s climate and environmental challenges. (companies that have more than 20% of their revenue coming from specified industries), are rated “A” or I was a bit surprised to see that Zoom was its third “B” by a trusted ethical consumer report, and are a biggest holding, with a weighting of 4.2%, not Certified B Corporation (an ESG certification from B because the company is not committed to green Lab). Companies are roughly market weighted, with a initiatives, but rather because its communications maximum weighting in the fund of 4% applied when solution doesn’t appear to have been purposed for annually re-balanced. the task of tackling climate change. But obviously, it met the test of this index, which says that to be The “top 10 “ list of holdings is quite interesting (only eligible, companies must derive 50% of their revenue CSL in the ASX “top 10” qualifies):: from “green revenue”. 1. Resmed 4.2% In an environment where the market for ‘ethical’ or 2. Xero 4.1% ‘ESG’ (environmental, social and corporate 3. Telstra 4.0% governance) investment products is booming, this 4. Fisher & Paykel 3.9% anecdote highlights the importance of “looking under 5. Sonic Healthcare 3.8% the bonnet” before deciding where to invest. But it 6.
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