LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY Dorota Dorozynska Master Programme Water resources and livelihood security Subject Investigation on the riverine retention in the Odra River, Poland Supervisor: Lars Rahm Examinator: Jan Lundqvist Linköping 2004 Division, Department Date 2004-08-23 Institutionen för Tema, Tema V 581 83 LINKÖPING Language Report category ISBN X English Licentiate thesis ISRN LIU-TEMAV/MPWLS-D—04/003-SE Other (specify below) Degree thesis Thesis, C-level Title of series, numbering ISSN ________________ X Thesis, D-level Other (specify below) ___________________ URL, electronic version http://www.ep.liu.se/exjobb/temav/2004 /tvmpwls/003/ Title En studie av retentionen i floden Oder och dess avrinningsområden, Polen. Investigation on the riverine retention in the Odra River, Poland Author Dorota Dorozynska Abstract Nutrient enrichment is the main cause of the increasing eutrophication process in the Baltic Sea during last century. A prerequisite counteract this process the load of nutrients to the Sea must be investigated. The large contribution of nutrients to the Sea is caused by emission from the rivers within the drainage basin. For the total emission of nutrient into the Sea the retention process in the rivers has big influence. This process in the river system has been assumed as a not important part of the nutrient cycle. However some investigators have pointed out that the retention process occurs in the river and be an important part of the nutrient dynamics in the river. For the object of investigation the Odra River Basin was chosen, as an example of a large river basin in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin. The Odra River is mainly localized in Poland and contributes substantially to the eutrophication of the Baltic Proper. The Odra River is one of the least dammed major rivers of the Baltic Proper and as such of especial interest in retention studies. The phosphorus was chosen as an example of nutrient in the eutrophication process. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the phosphorus retention within the river. Two different models were used to calculate the retention process in the river. The “Multiple Regression Model” turned out to be insignificant, therefore the results were computed by using a “similarity model”, based on similarities between load from monitored tributary basins and the rest of the sub-basin. The retention in the Odra River in the amounted to -4608 t yr-1, which is 43% of the total phosphorus emission to the Odra River. There is also stated that in the Notec and the Warta -1 -1 rivers the retention process occur in the amount of -1940 t yr and -3007 t yr respectively. Keywords phosphorus retention, riverine retention, the Odra River Basin, the Warta River Basin, the Notec River Basin 1 Abstract Nutrient enrichment is the main cause of the increasing eutrophication process in the Baltic Sea during last century. A prerequisite counteract this process the load of nutrients to the Sea must be investigated. The large contribution of nutrients to the Sea is caused by emission from the rivers within the drainage basin. For the total emission of nutrient into the Sea the retention process in the rivers has big influence. This process in the river system has been assumed as a not important part of the nutrient cycle. However some investigators have pointed out that the retention process occurs in the river and be an important part of the nutrient dynamics in the river. For the object of investigation the Odra River Basin was chosen, as an example of a large river basin in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin. The Odra River is mainly localized in Poland and contributes substantially to the eutrophication of the Baltic Proper. The Odra River is one of the least dammed major rivers of the Baltic Proper and as such of especial interest in retention studies. The phosphorus was chosen as an example of nutrient in the eutrophication process. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the phosphorus retention within the river. Two different models were used to calculate the retention process in the river. The “Multiple Regression Model” turned out to be insignificant, therefore the results were computed by using a “similarity model”, based on similarities between load from monitored tributary basins and the rest of the sub-basin. The retention in the Odra River in the amounted to -4608 t yr-1, which is 43% of the total phosphorus emission to the Odra River. There is also stated that in the Notec and the Warta rivers the retention process occur in the amount of -1940 t yr-1 and -3007 t yr-1 respectively. 2 Agenda Abstract ………………………………………………………….……………………………2 Ageda……………………………………………………………….…………………………3 List of Appendixes……………………………………………………………………………5 List of Figures...……………………………………………………………………………....6 List of Tables…..……………………………………………………………………………..6 Acknowledgements………………………………………………………….……………….7 Glossary and abbreviations……………………………………………….………………...8 1. Introduction ………………………………………………………….…………………….9 2. The goals and motivation of the thesis………………………………………………..13 2.1. Goals……………………………………………………………………...…………….13 2.2. Thesis motivation ………………………………………………………...…………...13 3. Study area: The Odra River Basin……………………………………………………..15 3.1. The Odra River Basin characteristics………………………………...……………..15 3.2. General outline of water resources and hydrological situation in Odra River Basin……………...………………………………………………………………………….18 3.3. General outline of influence of industrial and municipal loads for the Odra River Basin..……………………………………………………………………………….……….18 4. Theory of phosphorus load to the river………………………………………………..19 5. Research material and methods……………………………………………….………21 5.1. The geographical information system data and computation………….…………21 5.1.1. The geographical information system data…………………………….…………21 5.1.2. The geographical information system computation…………………..…………21 5.2. The data from Polish Official Statistics Bureau and their computations…...……23 5.2.1. Data gathered from Polish Official Statistics Bureau……………………………23 5.2.2. The fertilisers data……………………………………………………………….…23 5.2.3. The computations for sub-basins and tributaries……………………………..…23 3 5.3. The river data and computations………………………………………………….…25 5.3.1. The river data……………………………………………………………………..…25 5.3.2. The computations for river data……………………………………………………25 5.4. The structure of the sub-basin and computations of phosphorus load……….…26 5.5. The Principal Components Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis…...……27 5.5.1. An overview of the Principal Components Analysis…………….…………….…27 5.5.2. An overview of the Multiple Regression modelling…………………………...…27 5.6. Approach of the “Multiple Regression Model” and “Similarity Model”………..….29 5.6.1. The “Multiple Regression Model” approach……………………………..……….29 5.6.2. The “Similarity Model” ……………………………………………………..……….30 5.7. Retention computations…………………………………………..............………….31 5.7.1. The retention computation based on the “Multiple Regression Model”……….31 5.7.2. The retention computation based on the “Similarity Model” ……..……...…….31 5.8. The budget computations…………………………………………………….………32 6. Results………………………………………………………………………………...….33 6.1. The retention results from “Multiple Regression Model”……..………………..….33 6.2. The retention results from “Similarity Model”………………………………….……35 6.3. Comparison of retention results from “Similarity Model” and “Multiple Regression Model …………………………………………………………………………………….....37 6.4. The budget of total phosphorus in the Odra River Basin…………………………39 7. Discussion………………………………………………………………………..………41 7.1. The “Multiple Regression Model” validation………………………………..………41 7.2. Weakness of the “Similarity Model”…………………………………………………42 7.3. Results discussion………………………………………………………………….…43 7.3.1. Retention in the sub-basins and river basins………………………………….…43 7.3.2. Budget of phosphorus in the Odra River Basin …………………………………45 8. Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………46 9. Summary………………………………………………………………………….………46 References…………………………………………………………………………..………47 Appendixes ……………………………………………………………………...………….52 4 List of appendixes Appendix 1. The division of the Notec River Basin into sub-basins…………….…….53 Appendix 2. The division of the Warta River Basin into sub-basins………….……….54 Appendix 3. The division of the Odra River Basin into sub-basins……………..…….55 Appendix 4. The tributary data table……………………………………………………..56 Appendix 5. The tributaries statistics data table…………………………………...……57 Appendix 6. The tributaries standardised data table……………………………..…….59 Appendix 7. The sub-basin statistics data table…………………………………..…….61 Appendix 8. The sub-basin standardised data table……………………………………62 Appendix 9. The overview about interpretation of Principal Components Analysis and Multiple Regression results…………………………………………………..……63 Appendix 10. The results from the Principal Components Analysis and Multiple Regression for the tributary ………………………………………………….……65 Appendix 11. Summary table after Principal Components Analysis and Multiple Regression for tributary………………………………………………………….…67 Appendix 12. The results from the Principal Components Analysis and Multiple Regression for the sub-basins………………………………………….…………68 Appendix 13. The summary table after Principal Components Analysis and multiple regression for sub-basins………………………………………………………….70 Appendix 14. The retention results computed after “Multiple Regression Model”…..71 Appendix 15. The computations in “Similarity Model” for sub-basins………………...72 Appendix 16. The retention results computed after “Similarity Model”…………….....73 Appendix 17. The comparison