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Population Dynamics and Land Cover Changes of Urban Areas

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Population Dynamics and Land Cover Changes of Urban Areas View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by RAUmPlan - Repository of Architecture, Urbanism and Planning SPATIUM International Review UDC 711.4:314.114(497.11) ; No. 31, July 2014, pp. 22-29 711.4:314.114(450) ; 711.4:314.114(497.2) -7 Original scientific paper DOI: 10.2298/SPAT1431022K POPULATION DYNAMICS AND LAND COVER CHANGES OF URBAN AREAS Nikola Krunić1,2,3, Institute of Architecture and Spatial & Urban Planning of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Marija Maksin3, Institute of Architecture and Spatial & Urban Planning of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Saša Milijić3, Institute of Architecture and Spatial & Urban Planning of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Olgica Bakić3, Institute of Architecture and Spatial & Urban Planning of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Jasmina Đurđević3, Institute of Architecture and Spatial & Urban Planning of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia In order to enable efficient management of spatial development of cities, it is essential to analyse changes in land cover, in the ‘consumption’ of the land surrounding cities and the attained rationality with respect to the use of already urban land (reflected in the urban population density). This paper provides an overview of the land cover changes in the period between 1990 and 2006, and the potential correlation between the dynamics of the total population change on the one hand, and the land cover change on the other. The initial hypotheses of this paper are: (1) occupation and sealing of productive soil in peri-urban zones is not proportional to the population dynamics of cities and their metropolitan areas; and (2) expansion of soil sealing in peri-urban zones is not significantly affected by the differences with regard to the natural surroundings and historical development of cities, nor by these cities being developed cities or cities in transition, capitalistic or post-socialist cities, etc. These hypotheses are tested and confirmed in the cases of three capital cities in South and Southeast Europe. Regarding the changes in population density, it can be concluded that central/inner-city municipalities became less populated, with sometimes very significant decrease in population density, but without any land cover change, which indicates ‘depopulation’. At the same time, outer-city and peripheral municipalities also suffered a decline in population density, while their urban zones extended. Key words: population development and dynamics, land cover change, Belgrade, Rome, Sofia. 1990 and 2006, and the potential correlation Belgrade, Rome and Sofia (Krunić, 2013; 1 INTRODUCTION between the dynamics of the total population Krunić et al., 2014), was conducted using: Spatial expansion of European cities has change on the one hand, and the land cover publicly available dataset from the European continued at the steady rate in the 21st century, change on the other. The initial hypotheses of this Environmental Agency, ESRI ArcGIS albeit their generally decreasing population paper, based on literature review presented in Basemaps/ESRI ArcGIS OnLine, official national growth. In order to enable efficient management of Chapter 2, are: (1) occupation and sealing of statistics services and dataset obtained from spatial development of cities, it is essential to productive soil in peri-urban zones is not TURAS project partners (www.turas-cities.org). analyse changes in land cover, in the proportional to the population dynamics of cities The following spatial ‘datasets' were acquired: soil 2 3 ‘consumption’ of the land surrounding cities and and their metropolitan areas; and (2) expansion of sealing degree ranging from 0–100% in the attained rationality with respect to the use of soil sealing in peri-urban zones is not significantly aggregated spatial resolution (100 x 100m), for already urban land (reflected in the urban affected by the differences with regard to the the year 2006, urban morphological zones (UMZ population density). Further steps necessitate natural surroundings and historical development data sets for the years of 1990, 2000 and 2006) examination of the reasons behind these of cities, nor by these cities being developed 2 processes, and then controlling and directing cities or cities in transition, capitalistic or post- This paper is the result of research on the TURAS urban development by means of applying socialist cities, etc. These hypotheses are tested Project, grant agreement number 282834, EC FP7 theme ENV.2011.2.1.5-1. appropriate policies and instruments of spatial in the cases of three capital cities in South and 3 Southeast Europe. This paper is also the result of research on the projects development. This paper is focused on the first TR36036 “Sustainable Spatial Development of Danube part of the problem and provides an overview of A brief analysis of land cover change within Area in Serbia” and III47014 „The Role and the land cover changes in the period between administrative areas, later performed at the Implementation of the National Spatial Plan and Regional Development in Renewal of Strategic Research, Thinking level of administrative units at the local level and Governance in Serbia”, financed by the Ministry of 1Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73/II, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia (‘municipalities’) of case study cities - Education, Science and Technological Development of [email protected] the Republic of Serbia. 22 spatium Krunić N. et al.: Population dynamics and land cover changes of urban areas and UMZ changes from 1990–2000 and 2000– urbanization of Belgrade peri-urban zone is, were also tolerated, creating a complex ‘mosaic’ 2006, Corine Land Cover – CLC raster data sets according to Maksin-Mićić and Perišić (2005), a landscape (Montanari, Staniscia, 2012). for the years of 1990, 2000 and 2006, and CLC consequence of so-called ‘ostrich attitude’ Montanari and Staniscia (2012) observe that the changes for the period 1990–2000 and 2000– urbanism – reluctance of city authorities and movement of economic activities from cores 2006 (EEA, 2013). urban planners to solve the housing issues, towards suburbs in metropolitan areas in Rome occurring as a result of intensive population which took place in the 1991–2001 period was The following indicators were utilised: absolute growth, by means of planned building of of small scale and scattered, due to feeble job (total) population, population size dynamics, settlements with state-owned collective housing growth and the continuing attractiveness of the population density (measured via the number units, and preparation of planned building of city centre for many tertiary sector businesses. of inhabitants per unit of artificial land area, lower-density settlements for the needs of Gargiulo Morelli and Salvati (2010) analysed that is, ‘artificial surface’), structure of land private sector and population. Since 1990, compact vs dispersed urban development on the cover by category (by Corine Land Cover – fragmented and incomplete implementation of example of Rome (NUTS 3 prefecture of Rome) CLC classification), changes within the above the housing reform contributed to a sharp drop in ten-year intervals from 1960–2006. They land cover categories respectively, and ratio in legally built residential units, as well as to a compared the differential impact of compact between total and artificial surface of the serious distortion of the housing market (Vujović, urban ‘growth’ and low-density ‘sprawl’ on land administrative units. Petrović, 2007; Petrović, 2001). These authors cover changes (LCCs) and their final effect on believe that local planning authorities nearly changing land cover relationships (LCRs). URBAN DEVELOPMENT OF CASE collapsed, which led to a shocking upsurge in Conversion to urban land uses was carried out at STUDY CITIES – AN OVERVIEW illegal construction. The introduction of real estate the urban fringe in the 1960s and 1970s, while market, especially in the field of residential expanding progressively far from the city in the The chosen case study cities of Belgrade, construction, marked by extreme economic crisis 1990s and 2000s. LCCs were found to be Rome and Sofia differ in terms of their and high poverty of most inhabitants, had a relatively different during the ‘growth’ (1960– geographical position and surroundings, negative effect on the city development and 1990) and ‘sprawl’ (1990–2006) phases. historical development, and particularly in intensified illegal residential construction Overall, urban areas increased by 0.3% in the terms of the social and political system they (Bojović, Borovnica, 1998; Simeunčević ‘growth’ phase, while only by 0.06% in the have been intensively developing in since the th Radilović et al., 2013). In addition, since the end ‘sprawl’ phase. During the ‘growth’ phase, the mid-20 century. However, apart from the of the 20th century, due to the general trend of land cover classes with the highest probability of observed land cover changes, the common moving the production and commercial activities being converted to urban uses were arable feature of the three cities is the fact they have from the city to the periphery, the new poles of lands, annual crops, vineyards and pastures. been developing in the conditions of formally development have been formed on the outskirts of During the ‘sprawl’ phase, olive grove, orchard organised legal, spatial and urban planning the city, as well as in the metropolitan periphery and forest surfaces decreased as well, due to the systems, though with very different experiences (extremely attractive for
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