HUGO Assessing the economic and political environmentvision in New Zealand Confidential to HUGOVISION EXTRA January 30 2015 HUGO members

Two resignations in one day – political positioning. the implications However, whether NZ First could muster the organisational oomph that National would throw behind a A few hours can be a long time in politics, with two by-election, to be held before the end of March, is doubtful. significant political resignations since the publication of the fortnightly Hugovision this morning. On balance, we think Jones is happy where he is now and not a viable option, although he will enjoy Mike Sabin, the National MP for Northland, has resigned the attention. In that scenario, National will win and for “personal reasons” following media reports over the nothing will change. It’s reminder of how slender the summer that he is facing multiple criminal charges. govt’s majority is, less than six months into its third And Russel Norman has resigned as a co-leader of the term and before Parliament has even sat for the year. Green Party. Norman’s should be the more interesting resignation Russel Norman moving on in the long run, but we anticipate some excitable After 10 years as co-leader of the Green Party, Russel speculation of a Shane Jones comeback unless and until Norman, 47 and now the father of three young children, the former Labour maverick declares his hand. is stepping aside, apparently having decided he’s done as much as he can do in that role. He is staying on as an Jones is attractive on paper, but unlikely in practice, as a MP but also says he’s considering his future. candidate for either National or NZ First. If he won for NZ First, the govt would lose its majority and depend on The timing and execution of his departure is classy. United Future and the Maori Party MP’s for a majority. No rumours, a decision announced at caucus a decent distance beyond an election where he failed against his Could Jones be a National candidate? Wooed by own benchmark, which was to take the Greens from Murray McCully to quit Labour in the lead-up to the their 2011 11% vote to more like 15%. 2014 election and become a roving ambassador in the Pacific, Jones clearly has relationships at the politically It didn’t happen. machinating end of the National Party. He did, however, secure that 11% by making the Greens However, a Minister contacted today suggests Jones is more approachable to a wider electoral audience, “now cured” and won’t return to politics. Senior party creating a credible “green economy” policy base that operatives say the party’s democratic processes would was necessary to propel the party nearer the mainstream cut him out, even if he was interested. It is far less easy and took sometimes strident views on monetary policy. to parachute a National MP into an electorate seat than For example, Norman advocated quantitative easing for into a prominent list placing. NZ during the depths of the post-GFC grind. That said, Jones is a known name and former MP in the His co-leader, Metiria Turei, is a gift to the National North, who retains cross-over appeal with conservative Party for her capacity to alienate middle NZ voters. pakeha and Maori voters. Many of the latter choose Norman was her balancing factor for business. With to go on the Northland general electorate roll rather Norman stepping back, the next most economically and than enrol in the Maori seat of Te Tai Tokerau, held business-literate Green MP is newly elected James Shaw. by Labour’s Kelvin Davis. A drover’s dog should be A management consultant with a track record in the able to stand for National and win that safe seat, so private sector, Shaw is in Norman’s mould, but arguably John Key probably shouldn’t worry about losing his too green as an MP to co-lead. The obvious choice is parliamentary majority even if Sabin’s replacement Kevin Hague, an astute senior Green MP steeped in the candidate is another nobody. politics of the NZ left since student leadership days. A The wild card option would see Jones stand for NZ talented health spokesman, he doesn’t have Norman’s First. Winston Peters needs a succession strategy as economic heft, but he does have mana and might open he heads into his mid-70’s. Opinion is mixed on how up space for Shaw’s more modern economic approach serious or capable Peters would be of handing the reins Norman’s timing allows the caucus to discuss the issue at to anyone. Jones has been one pick for his replacement its annual retreat on Sunday. The leadership vote is in May for the same cross-over appeal and centrist/nationalist after a series of rank-and-file meetings with candidates.

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Text finalised January 30. Contact: [email protected]. No responsibility is accepted for acts or omissions by clients as a result of items herein. © The Hugo Group 2014