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CHICAGO WILDERNESS CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL BIODIVERSITY: A Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations Karner Blue Butterfly photo courtesy of Joel Trick, USFWS CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL BIODIVERSITY: A Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations INDEX Cover Letter ...................................................2 Situation Anaylsis ........................................ 3 What’s Being Done .......................................5 Recommendations for Further Action .......5 References ......................................................6 City Hall green roof photo courtesy of the Chicago Citation: The Chicago Wilderness consortium. 2008. Climate Change And Regional Biodiversity: A Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations to Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations. The Chicago Wilderness consortium, Chicago IL. CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL BIODIVERSITY: A Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations 1 Dear Reader, The enclosed document, Climate Change and each of the CW Teams, CW staff, and other scientists and Regional Biodiversity: A Preliminary Assessment professionals within CW member organizations. and Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Although the findings presented in the Preliminary Member Organizations, was prepared by the Chicago Assessment and Recommendations document reflect Wilderness (CW) Climate Change Task Force and the best current research and analysis available to the approved for public distribution by the CW Executive Task Force, the document is preliminary in nature, Council in June 2008. The and reflects the uncertainties Preliminary Assessment and complex challenges discusses the projected effects climate change presents to of climate change within the scientists, natural resource the CW region, the potential managers, and others working impacts of climate change on to protect regional biodiversity. the region’s biodiversity, and It is anticipated that updated current actions undertaken by versions will be developed as CW member organizations to our understanding of climate address climate change impacts. change and its impacts on It also recommends actions regional biodiversity improves individuals and organizations Photo courtesy of John Hayse, Argonne National Laboratory over time. can undertake to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Comments and inquiries are welcomed, and should to develop strategies to lessen the impacts of climate be addressed to Robert Sullivan, Program Manager, change on the region’s ecosystems. Environmental Sciences Division, Argonne National This document is intended to provide CW member Laboratory, at [email protected] or to CW staff member organizations and others with accurate, basic information Christopher Mulvaney, Science & Natural Resources about climate change and regional biodiversity impacts Teams Coordinator, [email protected]. to support public communication efforts. Its conclusions The Task Force thanks the many reviewers whose are based on a review of recent scientific publications thoughtful comments greatly improved the document, discussing region-specific projections for climate change as well as Chicago Wilderness staff who provided critical effects and potential impacts on biodiversity. The topics support during its development. Special thanks are due addressed and the recommendations made are based also the City of Chicago Department of Environment, on discussion among Task Force members, as well as who generously donated staff time to assist with graphic numerous comments provided by reviewers representing design and development tasks. Chicago Wilderness Climate Change Task Force CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL BIODIVERSITY: A Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations 2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL BIODIVERSITY: A Preliminary Assessment & Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations the negative effects of these existing SITUATION ANALYSIS stressors10 and it will also introduce new “CliMatE CHanGE” REFERS to a substantial stressors that will further impact the native change in the Earth’s climate for an extended species in this region. period of time. “Global warming” refers to Although there is some uncertainty climate change that includes an increase in about the exact nature and severity of the average temperature near the Earth’s climate-change-related impacts anticipated surface. Although the Earth’s climate changes for the Chicago Wilderness region, a naturally, global warming is now occurring number of scientific studies project the rapidly, primarily because of the addition of following impacts: excess carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” to the atmosphere from human • Increased duration and intensity of heat activities, such as fossil fuel burning and waves in summer, with higher levels of deforestation. These greenhouse gases trap humidity and evaporation; 9,11 heat in the atmosphere that would normally • Milder winters with fewer extremely be radiated into space, and the atmosphere cold days; 9 warms as a result. The Intergovernmental • A longer growing season, with fewer Panel on Climate Change, an international frost days; 9 scientific body tasked to evaluate the risk of • Changing patterns of rain and snowfall; climate change caused by human activity, overall, somewhat more rain may fall, has concluded that evidence for the but in fewer rain events of greater “warming of the climate system is intensity, and the ratio of snow to total unequivocal.”1 The potential for rapid and precipitation is expected to decrease;9,12 lasting climate warming poses a significant • Increased frequency of extreme weather challenge for biodiversity conservation.2 events, leading both to more frequent Species’ abundance and distribution and more severe dry spells as well as are dynamic, relative to a variety of factors, more flooding from heavy rains;1,9,12 including climate. As climate changes, the • Changes to water resources including As climate abundance and distribution of plants and reduced water levels in streams, changes, the animals also will change,3,4,5 and is already wetlands, and lakes; more frequent abundance doing so.5,6,7,8 Regional biodiversity is flooding due to heaver rain events; and and distribution already severely impacted by habitat loss lower water quality;5,9,12 and of plants and and disturbance, invasive species, pollution • Reduced ice cover on area lakes, animals also and other stressors9; climate change will including Lake Michigan, with generally will change, interact with and in some cases exacerbate warmer water temperatures.9,12 and is already doing so. American Goldfinch photo courtesy of the the of courtesy photo Goldfinch American Society Zoological Chicago CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL BIODIVERSITY: A Preliminary Assessment and Recommendations for Chicago Wilderness Member Organizations 3 These changes in climate are expected to impact regional biodiversity in a variety of direct and indirect ways: • Changes in the timing of natural events such as blooming, leaf drop, nesting and egg laying, migration, onset of hibernation, etc.;7,8 • Loss of suitable habitat for some species and increases in habitat for other species;. • Gradual shifting of mobile species (generally northward) as temperatures increase;5,6,8 Kentucky the of courtesy photo leaves oak red Northern of Forestry Division • Disruption of ecological communities distribution. As many as 44 species of birds due to differential responses of species to that currently breed in Illinois may no longer climate change;10 breed in the state by the end of the century, • Disruption of predator-prey relationships including such familiar and widespread species and other inter-specific relationships;8 and as tree swallow, black-capped chickadee, white- • Increased threats from invasive species, breasted nuthatch, house wren, gray catbird, and insect and disease pathogens.5,8 red-eyed vireo, yellow warbler, ovenbird, scarlet tanager, chipping sparrow, Baltimore oriole and These impacts on native biodiversity will American goldfinch. Some bird species with result in changing abundance and distribution more southerly and westerly distributions could of fish, wildlife, and plant species. At this time, move into Illinois.13 Some research has suggested it is impossible to state with precision which that climate change may also negatively impact Climate species will be affected by climate change, or pollinator species; when plants and pollinators warming will exactly how, but increasing scientifically-based respond differently to climate change, pollinator be a particular evidence suggests that many species in the reproductive success may be reduced.14,15 In challenge for Chicago Wilderness region will show effects. general, insect growth will be favored by higher endangered, Species for which the Chicago Wilderness temperatures, which may result in greater threatened, and region is near the southern end of their range damage from insect pests.9 other at-risk may be at particular risk.9 Species for which Also, because some species are associated species. the Chicago Wilderness region is near the with rare natural communities that are northern end of their range may increase in fragmented in this region, their ability to move abundance, and species currently not found within or to new habitat in response to climate in the region may appear. change will be limited.