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Eurocash BRE Bank Securities BRE Bank Securities 17 January 2011 Update Retail Poland Eurocash Accumulate ERCS.WA; EUR PW (Resumed) Current price PLN 33.7 Leader Deserves a Premium Target price PLN 37.4 FMCG companies can be divided into those that invest in volumes Market cap PLN 4 778m before taking care of profitability and working capital management, Free float PLN 2 319m and those that focus on profitability. The Polish FMCG market is very competitive and local companies will find it difficult to sustain or Avg daily trading volume (3M) PLN 10.44m increase profitability in the presence of leading global wholesalers and retailers. The progressing consolidation of the market leads to Shareholder Structure additional pressure on margins. By purchasing Tradis, Eurocash has become the leader of the FMCG distribution market. The Company Luis Amaral 51.47% wants to participate in further market consolidation processes and aims at sales of PLN 20bn by 2015. We believe this will be hard to Pozostali 48.53% achieve as there are fewer and fewer sizable acquisition targets. That said, we do see a potential in the recently-acquired CEDC and Tradis. With some synergies taken into account, Eurocash does have further potential for organic growth. We are resuming coverage of Eurocash with an accumulate rating and target price of PLN 37.4 per share. Sector Outlook Tradis The FMCG wholesale market has been growing very We expect Tradis to add PLN 109m to the Company’s 2011 EBITDA and fast over the past few years and this trend seems set PLN 180m to its 2012 EBITDA. Eurocash is hoping to see an impact on to continue in the near future. The industry’s condition EBITDA as big as PLN 240m, taking into account synergies in the form of is strongly affected by the positive trends observed in lower purchasing prices (PLN 70m) and savings on logistic expenses (PLN retail sales. The number of FMCG wholesalers in 60m). Additional impact on working capital should reach PLN 130m, and Poland has been declining systematically, which is a consequence of ongoing consolidation of the industry. gains on the sale of properties taken over with Tradis some PLN 100m. No New Transactions on the Horizon Company Profile We expect stable growth and sustained profitability in traditional wholesale Eurocash is one of Poland’s biggest distributors of and active distribution. CEDC distribution companies bought in 2010 are in foods, household chemicals, alcohol and tobacco in need of restructuring, which, coupled with the Tradis acquisition, will keep terms of the value of sales and the number of stores. Eurocash busy enough to force it to postpone further acquisition efforts. Operating in several distribution segments, the New takeovers will be necessary, however, if the Company is to meet the Company focuses on wholesale distribution to Management’s PLN 20bn revenue target in 2015. Our forecasts do not take traditional retailers, gas stations and restaurants. such transactions into account. Valuation at a Premium Among WSE-listed peers, Eurocash is the leader as far as cash flows from operations are concerned. The Company’s low investment outlays are Eurocash vs. WIG financed with working capital and depreciation. Eurocash pays dividends and actively participates in market consolidation processes. In our opinion 35 this, along with its policy of repaying loans quickly, warrants a premium to PLN peers. The Company’s current P/E is 18.6 for 2012 and 15.0 for 2013, Eurocash WIG 30.8 which entails premiums of 38% and 22%, respectively, to foreign peers. WSE-listed retailers are trading at a premium of ca. 30% to foreign peers. 26.6 (PLN m) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 22.4 Revenue 6 698.3 7 834.2 13 895.0 15 455.3 16 546.2 EBIT 145.2 176.8 319.6 422.4 496.7 18.2 EBIT margin 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 3.0% EBITDA 194.5 236.5 411.0 521.5 593.7 14 Net income 102.5 131.3 202.0 287.8 357.5 10-01-13 10-05-11 10-09-06 11-01-02 DPS 0.29 0.37 0.49 0.76 1.08 P/E 44.3 35.0 24.6 18.6 15.0 Gabriela Borowska (48 22) 697 47 36 P/CE 29.9 24.1 17.0 13.8 11.8 [email protected] P/BV 12.4 10.0 4.6 4.2 3.6 www.dibre.com.pl EV/EBITDA 22.5 20.0 13.3 10.6 8.9 DYield 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.7% BRE17 January Bank Securities 2011 does not rule out offering brokerage services to an issuer of securities being the subject of a recommendation. Information concerning a conflict of interest arising in connection with issuing a recommendation (should such a conflict exist) is located on the final page of this report. BREBRE Bank Bank Securities Securities Eurocash Summary Acquisition of Tradis Tradis is expected to add about PLN 110m per year to Eurocash's consolidated EBITDA. The acquisition will also generate synergies in the form of better purchase prices (a ca. PLN 70m boost to annual EBITDA) and lower logistics expenses (ca. PLN 60m added to EBITDA). Restructuring of working capital, mainly accounts payable, will generate additional cash flows of an estimated PLN 130m. Finally, Tradis brought in real estate (including two distribution centers) which Eurocash hopes to sell for PLN 100m. Through the acquisition, Eurocash is now the uncontested market leader with a 17% market share. Valuation Premium Eurocash is trading at 18.6x 2012E P/E (by 2012, Tradis’s revenues will be fully reported on the consolidated income statement) and 10.6x EV/EBITDA, showing a premium to the sector which is all the more deserved after the acquisition. Eurocash is currently the leader of industry consolidation. The company generates positive operating cash flows and has a low CAPEX (except for M&A expenses) which is fully covered with working capital and depreciation. CFO, CAPEX, Dividend Eurocash is the leader among publicly traded FMCG companies in working capital management, although its negative conversion cycle is less impressive when compared to international leaders. Working capital and depreciation are sufficient to cover the costs of organic growth. Eurocash’s operating cash flows were 1.5x higher than EBITDA in 2007 and 2008, and have been on a level with EBITDA since 2009, and the ratio is expected to remain the same or rise in the years ahead. Strong operating cash flows, combined with low capital expenses (Eurocash leases store space), mean considerable cash resources that can be shared with shareholders or spent on M&A deals. On the occasion of announcing the Tradis acquisition, Eurocash also announced a 51% distribution to shareholders from 2010 earnings. Working capital, depreciation, CAPEX CFO/Net profit Source: Eurocash, BRE Bank Securities, company reports PLN 20 Billion Sales Target Eurocash has set itself a goal of achieving PLN 20 billion sales in 2015. To accomplish this ambitious goal while competition (Biedronka, Tesco, Carrefour) continues its aggressive expansion in Poland, the company has to carry on with mergers and acquisitions. And since targets with appropriately high sales volumes are increasingly harder to come by, achievement of sales growth at the target rate will be a challenge. Our financial forecasts for Eurocash account only for the M&A deals already completed. Focus On Volumes In our opinion, a focus on sales growth rather than profitability, and effective working capital management, are what it takes to succeed in a consolidating industry. Eurocash plans to utilize a portion of the higher margins saved on cheaper purchases to lower sales prices as a way of increasing market share. This, combined with a negative cash conversion cycle, will be key to maintaining a leading position as an FMCG distributor. Cross Sales Eurocash is hoping to increase cross-sales across the enlarged customer base built through M&A activity. 17 January 2011 2 BREBRE Bank Bank Securities Securities Eurocash Business Profile Eurocash is one of Poland’s largest FMCG wholesalers in terms of revenues and locations. Its key customers include retail stores, fuel stations, and restaurants. Eurocash sells FMCG through five channels: (i) the discount wholesale chain Eurocash Cash&Carry (which offers loyalty incentives to owners of abc franchise stores), (ii) the retail franchise Delikatesy Cetrum, (iii) the distributor of tobacco and impulse products KDWT, (iv) Eurocash Dystrybucja which caters to restaurants, hotels, and fuel stations, and (v) Premium Distributors – a network of alcoholic beverage retailers and wholesales (acquired from CEDC). Just recently, Eurocash acquired distribution operations from Emperia which include cash&carry outlets and delivered wholesale. Organizational Chart Source: Eurocash Sales Structure Sales by product group Sales by channel Source: Eurocash, BRE Bank Securities Cash & Carry Eurocash operates one of the largest self-service wholesale discount chains in Poland called Eurocash Cash&Carry. The chain consists of wholesale outlets conveniently located near customers, mostly in medium-sized cities with populations around 50,000. The average outlet has a floor area of 1500-2000 square meters. The target customer is a small to medium-sized store with a floor area of 100 sqm. An average cash&carry outlet carries 3500 products of which 85% are food and beverage items. Eurocash Cash&Carry has 80,000 registered customers including (i) abc stores, (ii) regular customers who shop at least once a month, and (iii) others. 17 January 2011 3 BREBRE Bank Bank Securities Securities Eurocash The abc chain, which benefits from a loyalty program, accounts for over 40% of Eurocash Cash&Carry’s total sales.