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FMCG Distributors Consolidation Play

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FMCG Distributors Consolidation Play Equity Markets Sector review Dorota Puchlew, CFA Poland Warsaw (4822) 820 50 26 [email protected] FMCG distributors Consolidation play Food & drug retailers 26 March 2008 Emperia The Polish FMCG retail and wholesale market has reached Bloomberg code EMP PW a stage where consolidation looks inevitable. In our view, Reuters code EDRO.WA Price (PLN) 149.90 the winner will be the company that consolidates more Target price (PLN) 175.0 Rating BUY successfully, therefore we prefer Emperia to Eurocash. Market cap (PLNm) 2247.0 Market cap (US$m) 977 Daily turnover (US$m) 0.5 2008F PER 18.8 No way but to consolidate. Both the wholesale and retail FMCG 2009F PER 15.3 2008F EV/EBITDA 11.8 segments are highly fragmented (10 top companies hold 40% and 30% of 2009F EV/EBITDA 9.4 their value respectively), the traditional stores need to gain purchasing power Note: Data diluted for 2007 SPO (1.5m shares in order to compete with modern trade, and wholesalers are racing for issued); prices as at 25/03/8 customers and franchisees. This, combined with slow organic growth of the market, creates an environment ripe for consolidation, bringing efficiency of Eurocash scale, enhanced competitiveness and earnings growth. Bloomberg code EUR PW Reuters code ERCS.WA Emperia preferred as the consolidating party. We believe Emperia Price (PLN) 12.18 is positioned better to play the leading role in FMCG market consolidation Target price (PLN) 12.6 Rating HOLD process than Eurocash, since it has a superior record in M&A and Market cap (PLNm) 1567 Market cap (US$m) 681 communicates a more aggressive approach to future transactions. Moreover, Daily turnover (US$m) 0.4 it still holds half of the funds raised in 2007 for acquisitions. 2008F PER 20.8 2009F PER 17.0 2008F EV/EBITDA 11.5 Emperia’s superior business model. Eurocash is engaged only in 2009F EV/EBITDA 9.5 wholesale, whereas Emperia is increasing its exposure to fastest growing Note: Data diluted for McLane acq. payment and more profitable retail. As a result, it notes superior margins (net (est. 1.03m shares); prices as at 25/03/08 profitability of 2.0% vs. 1.2%) and grows faster (2007-10F diluted EPS CAGR of 45% vs. 28%). Moreover, the gap in profitability of both companies should Relative share price performance continue to widen, as Emperia concentrates more on retail, and Eurocash 220 takes over McLane which we expect to weaken margins further. 200 180 Valuations and recommendations. We rate Emperia BUY with a TP 160 of PLN175, and Eurocash a HOLD with a TP of PLN12.6. Emperia is traded 140 with somewhat lower multiples (2008F PER of 18.8x and 20.8x respectively), 120 100 but we believe the company deserves a premium for its higher growth rates 80 in EPS and growing differential in margins, to the advantage of Emperia. 12/06 8/07 3/08 Emperia Eurocash research.ing.com Source: Reuters SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION FMCG distributors March 2008 Contents Summary 3 Investment case 4 Valuation 9 Market overview 15 Companies 21 Emperia ...................................................................................................................23 Eurocash .................................................................................................................35 Disclosures Appendix 47 2 FMCG distributors March 2008 Summary Market prospects In our view, the FMCG market in Poland has reached a stage in which consolidation is inevitable, owing to high market fragmentation and slow organic growth of the sector. Moreover, small traditional stores have to gain purchasing power in order to compete with modern trade (a 40% market share), by consolidation, joining franchise chains or organising into common purchase groups. Business model comparison There are several key differences between the business models of both companies. Eurocash deals only with lower profitability wholesale and Emperia has 25% of revenues coming from more prospective retail. As a result, we view Eurocash as a more stable and safer business with negative working capital, and Emperia as a fast growing, diversified company involving more risk. ING forecasts vs. consensus estimates Our estimates are slightly above consensus with respect to Emperia (by 6% on 2008F and 8% on 2009F net profit), and somewhat below in case of Eurocash (by 6-7% in 2008F and 2009F). We believe the consensus will revise Emperia forecasts upward, since it does not seem yet to reflect the company’s guidance for PLN 5.8bn in 2008 revenues, and revise Eurocash forecasts downwards, when after taking over McLane and its significantly lower profitability, the margins start to fall. Recommendations and key catalysts In our opinion, investors should focus on companies offering higher potential in terms of consolidation, and therefore prefer Emperia to Eurocash. Based on comparative valuation and DCF model, we rate Emperia a BUY with a 12-month TP of PLN175, and Eurocash a HOLD with a 12-month TP of PLN12.6. Eurocash trades a little higher than Emperia, despite its inferior growth record. We see the newsflow connected with future acquisitions as the main share price driver for Emperia. It is scheduled to take over Lewiatan, Poland’s biggest grocery franchise chain in terms of revenues. Negotiations have been held for over six months, and we believe they will come to a positive end in 2-3 months. Price negotiations are being held, together with attempts to structure the transaction, since Lewiatan’s organisational and shareholding structure is fragmented. We do not account for this transaction in our model; it would serve as another upside factor to our target price. Key risks With respect to Emperia, we believe the biggest risk is connected with the enormous managerial, organisational and financial effort required to consolidate over a dozen companies taken over in 2007 and due to be acquired in 2008. We appreciate the successful consolidation of BOS, but there is a difference between managing one big merger and a number of small acquisitions. With respect to Eurocash, in our view potential upside or downside in the short term could come from the announcement of the McLane acquisition price, should it be much different from our calculations of PLN40m equity fair value. 3 FMCG distributors March 2008 Investment case Market perspectives FMCG will accelerate The FMCG market has been growing under 5% pa from the beginning of the 2000s, but underperform based on Polish Statistical Office data. We forecast a slight acceleration, since Polish other consumer disposable income is growing, but we believe it will underperform other consumer goods goods categories, since food, the most important component of the FMCG market, is a category whose share usually drops in the total consumption basket as a society becomes richer. In the short term, however, it can grow at a similar pace to non-food consumer goods, owing to above-average food price inflation. Market’s fragmentation Both retail and wholesale FMCG segments in Poland are highly fragmented: the top 10 translates to… companies hold 30% and 40% of the market respectively. Moreover, the Polish market is unique in the retail channel structure: the modern trade (super and hypermarket chains) is unable to increase its market share from just over 40% (compared with 60- 80% in the majority of western countries). The tradition of shopping in small, convenient stores combined with very small urbanisation rate (c.30%) is the main reason for this. … intensification of Slow organic growth and high fragmentation of the market drive the intensity of the consolidation process... consolidation process. This is the best way to grow faster than the whole market, since FMCG is a relatively mature sector and there is not enough space to grow organically as quickly as via M&A. … which will transform Over the past few years, we have witnessed several large transactions between from large to many leading multinational retailers (the splitting of Casino stores into Real and Tesco small transactions… hands, taking over Hypernova and Albert brands from Ahold by Carrefour, or the acquisition of Dohle’s HIT stores by Tesco). We believe the market entered a stage in which international companies achieved their desired positions and do not expect such a major shift in their assets. Now is the time for local concerns to integrate the smaller companies in the market. Therefore, we expect a larger number of smaller acquisitions. … and result in Another factor that will support the consolidation process will be an increasing interest enhanced competitive in improving competitive position. Wholesalers will be willing to merge because it will power of the industry… give them opportunity to benefit from greater purchasing power. Their enhanced positioning will enable them to exert pricing pressure on retailers. They will be willing to consolidate to immunise themselves against the distributors’ power and to be able to compete with the modern trade. If not through capital transaction, retailers will organise into common purchase groups or join franchise chains offering access to favourable supply terms. Eurocash and Emperia in the market context Eurocash and Emperia Both Eurocash and Emperia play leading roles in the FMCG wholesale market, with place in the market vs. second and fourth rank respectively, with Makro and CEDC as the leading and third main competitors ranked companies. The market leaders do not compete directly, as Makro is concentrated on cash & carry which is open to the public and offering wide range of products, while Eurocash deals with discount cash & carry open only to grocery stores, CEDC is a spirits distributor, and Emperia is predominantly an active distributor. With respect to retail, both companies are exposed to traditional formats (Emperia directly and through franchise, Eurocash via franchise only), and do not wish to compete with 4 FMCG distributors March 2008 the multinational retail chains, such as Tesco or Carrefour.
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