MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook October 2012 to March 2013 Normal start of the 2012/13 agriculture season expected KEY MESSAGES Figure 1 Current food security outcomes, October 2012 As the lean season (October to March) sets in the majority of rural households throughout the country are meeting their basic food needs. These favorable food security conditions are due largely to existing food stocks from the main harvest of the 2011/12 cropping season and the availability of diversified food crops from the second season, including horticultural crops. Poor households in most of Funhalouro and Chigubo districts and parts of Chicualacuala, Panda and Machanga districts are currently facing food and livelihood deficits that are likely to continue until the main harvest in March 2013. In these areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity conditions will prevail throughout the outlook period. Between October and December, the majority of rural poor households in parts of Mutarara, Moatize, and Chiuta and Changara districts will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity conditions, while from January to March 2013 poor households in Mutarara district will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity conditions. Source: FEWS NET This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/IPC for more on this scale. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook October 2012 to March 2013 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Figure 2. Projected food security outcomes, October 2012 to March 2013 Current Situation The lean season has begun in most parts of the rural south and central zones and is expected to begin in the northern zone in December. With most of the country in the lean season (October-February), the majority of rural households are able to meet their basic food needs. The overall Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity conditions are due largely to the availability of existing food stocks at the household level from the main harvest, and the production of various vegetable crops from the second season. The 2012/13 cropping season has officially started and land preparation is complete for most areas in the south and parts of the central region. Most of the main monitored markets are adequately supplied with staple food and commodities. Trade flows around the country are following the usual seasonal pattern and staple food prices are following seasonal trends. However, different price trends have been observed in Milange district in the Zambézia province. During a recent field visit in early October to this area bordering the southern zone of Malawi, FEWS NET quickly assessed the causes and implications of the abnormally high prices of maize in Milange, along with the likely impact of these prices in surrounding areas. Between April and July of Source: FEWS NET this year maize prices abnormally spiked by 113 percent in Milange. Figure 3. Projected food security outcomes, Thereafter the prices stabilized and currently the maize in Milange is January to March 2013 38 percent higher than those of the same period of last year and 23 percent higher than the five-year average (2007-2011). According to district sources, the abnormally high maize prices are mainly due to reduced production during the 2011/12 main season that was caused by abnormally heavy rainfall of more than 600 millimeters over a period of less than 10 days in January. This heavy rain damaged maize crops that were in the flowering stage in most areas of Milange district. The long dry spell that followed in February prevented most of the damaged crops from recovering. By April and May the maize that was harvested was quickly absorbed by traders. Since then tons of maize was purchased by licensed traders and transported into Malawi where storage facilities are better than those existing in the Mozambican side. FEWS NET was informed that the bulk of this maize will be released by traders later during the peak of the lean season from December to February. Milange is normally a maize surplus district and a food basket of the Zambézia Province. The abnormally high prices and low availability of maize have reduced the level of exports to various destinations outside of Milange district. However, the impact of prices and availability is negligible given the variety of crop production in the district. For instance, this year’s production of pigeon pea was Source: FEWS NET These maps represent acute food insecurity outcomes extraordinary high and this boom in pigeon pea production has relevant for emergency decision-making, and do not increased household income for all wealth groups. Sesame and cotton necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit had also performed well above expectation. Overall, current high www.fews.net/IPC for more on this scale. maize prices in Milange are seen locally as a temporary abnormality that is expected to change during the next harvest. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook October 2012 to March 2013 Assumptions The October 2012 to March 2013 outlook is based on the following, national-level assumptions: Agroclimatology A good agricultural season is expected based on forecasts for improved rainfall distribution during the second half of the season (January-March), especially in the central and northern zones of the country where planting generally starts in late November/December. According to the projections by the Ministry of Agriculture, between October and December, much of the central and the southern zones of the country will fulfill 50 to 70 percent of their crop water requirements. Between January and March, the southern zone will continue to meet only 50 to 70 percent of crop water requirements, while the rest of the country is expected to meet 70 to 100 percent of water requirements necessary for crop growth. The 2012/13 seasonal climate outlook forecast expects near-normal to above-normal rainfall for the northern part of the country, including the northern portion of the central region, and normal to below-normal rains for the rest of the country between October and December. Between January and March, the southern region has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to below- normal rainfall, while the rest of the country has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall. Forecasted weather conditions favor normal seasonal cropping activities during the entire Outlook period, however the influence of a weak El Niño could result in some spatially unevenly distributed rainfall patterns. Markets and Trade Maize prices across the country have been the same or slightly above those of the previous year and generally above the five-year average. Maize prices are expected to continue on this trend throughout the Outlook period. Typical staple food price variation during the rest of the consumption period (October 2012-March 2013) will ensure food access to the majority of households that are beginning to make market purchases. Agricultural Labor The expected normal start of season will enable normal cropping season activities and labor opportunities will be at normal levels from October to December. With the possibility of mid-season dry spells in some regions of the country, these events could reduce opportunities for agriculture labor, particularly for harvest during the months of February and March Humanitarian Assistance Due to a food pipeline break, humanitarian assistance levels throughout the outlook period will continue to be inadequate since only 100,000 out of 255,000 are currently covered by the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC), National Institute for Social Action (INAS), and the World Food Programme (WFP) joint effort. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Based on the national-level assumptions described above, food insecurity will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the outlook period. However, since most of the outlook period coincides with the lean season, some poor households will exhaust their food reserves and will begin to rely on a range of typical livelihood and coping strategies. These typical strategies include reduced spending on non-food items and seeking casual labor (i.e. land preparation, planting, hunting, and gathering wild foods from the forest). Another source of household income is through the sale of diversified forest and craft products including: grass, building poles, cane/reed and firewood. In addition to this, households will become involved in the Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook October 2012 to March 2013 production and sale of charcoal, selling of livestock/poultry, traditionally distilled alcohol, and other goods. Consumption of wild foods is expected to intensify during the lean season and following the initial rains, which usually provide a variety of wild foods. In some areas gifts, remittances, and hunting will play an important role in improving household food access. In recent years there has also been an increase in the production of cashew-nuts which has contributed to increased food availability and income at the household level. AREAS OF CONCERN Semi-Arid Interior-Maize Livelihood Zone in southern Gaza province and Inhambane province Current Situation Most poor households in the Chicualacuala, Chigubo, northern Guijá, Funhalouro, Mabote, Panda and Chibuto districts have already exhausted their food reserves from the 2011/12 harvest. The main season earlier this year was adversely affected by mid-season dryness in January and February, which reduced crop yields and food availability for the current consumption year. The second season has contributed to some extent to minimizing the production shortfalls.