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Estimation of Climate Impact on Water Availability and Extneme Events For Estimation of Climate Impact on WaterAvailability and ExtnemeEvents for Snow-Freeand Snow-Affected Catchmentsof the Murray-Dartng Basin* S Yu Schreideq PhD MSc, BSc, Resealch Fellow Al fakeman**, PhD BSc,Professor Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, AI$U PH Whefton, PhD BSc, Senior Research Scientist A B Pittock, PhD, BSc, Chief Scientist, Leader of Climate Impact Group Division of Atmospheric Research,CSIRO SIIMIv/IARY Thc pssihteimpacts of clinute clungeon umterauitlability arearulysed for eastenBasins of theMuray-Darling DiainageDioision AvtOOD in Victoria.This rcgion uns stuilieil becau*of its imryrtance to umtersippty fm Austntkn rural inilustry,sperially inigation saryIy.It includa the Goulburn,Ooens and Kieua Basinsand thc Victnian part of tlu UpperMuttay Basin. TIu conceptualrainfutl-runoff moilel IHACRESuas selectdas tlu strutfloat.prfilPf ryL.lt hasbeen suc' cessfultyutnratea'ana oaiiatd for the snow-freeGoulburn anil Ouns Basin#zoand for tlu snowaffected Xictn Easinand Mitta-Mittn utihnent in the UpperMunay Basint. In thelaftn use, an mrydtiul snowmcltl accumulntionmodel, baxd on a modifieditegret4ay appoadt, uns appliedin miler to owert snou melt ucess and snw accumulationlosses into Lquioalattrainplti, which wasised as an input to ttu IHACRESmoilel. Seasonalchange smurios for the regionalclimate,relcaxlba tly O-toisionof AtnnrephnlcResut& CSIRC,fol the years2ff,id and 2070ioere usdto transformdaity historiul ctimatedata. These anil othq limitationsof tlu approachare discussed. Estimates of streamftw clungesfor tlu climatescmariu unre obtainedfor all Basins underconsideratbn. Climate impactswne considnedfrcm two pmpectioes:impacts on the annualand monthly dischargein the Basins,and impcts on theprobabitity of extranena*s suchas floods and droughts.As the scauria.Pr@id: q olsesToete unsidercd:'mwt ilry' rangeof possiiteclanga to Uothtaipiranre and pecipitatan, two ryy wt' clhnntii clunges Win ntes (2030and 2070. lJnilq stiNatd assumptions, a"i'*wi for'nost 1unrc .strumflout wasantsiderably reduced foi ttft itry' (pssimistid scauriosin bothsnryfrcj and mow affi regions. ooIume-vnsrduced by 287o- 38% 2030anil 53%- 64Vo 2070,Thcdcoux was slightlyaccentu- Annual 'mostfor fa ateilin the snow-fru utchmhtts. The wet' (optimistic)scau/ros ptooidtt^diffaettt for snow-free llrycts' andsnm; affecteit'catchtnants:thex changesare negligtblysmatl GSVo to +4Voat 20B;Aand |Vo +6Voat 2070for thesnow-free ann, butlaryn (7Vo- 77%inmtxit2OSO anit72Vo - 2!Voat 2070) fot mow+ffectd Basins. In estittutingthe impact of ctinute clungeon tlu gobabilityof atrme @ents,thc sndusion ftom our assumV in tiu pnbabiltilrsol sUputitA lewtsin the arcabutt 50*70%at 2030and tionsis tlutlnctu*s food'[ng'mai future iniOn at 2070for futh Wes of utchmentsfor tle wet' us xauia Tlnx probabilitia are slightly higha for snw affectd regbns. bothtypes Theyobability offlaod nentsamputed forthe'nnst dry' scauriw rapitllyilenuses at thex ilatesfor of utctmenti. i6r tte snow<ffead Xian moer utihmmt, drgu^gltf"lyyw: as-definedby a.yit lDetness 'most Thex ihdex,* anctudcdn inctense'36%for the dryl xcnario at 2030anit 87Vofor thisscerurio at 2070. percentagaare much the sne for &ow-|ee arcas,beinga 357oand 89%inoux, rapecdroely. 1 INTRODUCTION climatechanges, induced by inoeasing greenhousegas con- centrationsin the Earth's ahosphere, is a temperaturein- 1.1 Rationaleand background crease(the global waruring effect) and lesscertain dnnges in precipitation-Future dimate drangesmay bring an asso- Analysis of possibledimate impacts on surface water re- ciatedsignificant variation in water zupply with subsequent sourc€sin the MDDD in relation to dimate forcing is e,x- efiectson demand for water and other related rcsotuc€s. tremely important for water planning and was the main Reductionof water availability can lead to an incase in prob obFctive of the work reported here.The naturc of poosible water use conflicts, causing serious socioeconomic lesrs.Increases in water availability, on the other hand, may opportunities. im- * PaperW l9402ftstsu6mitted to IEAust onl0h/96.PaPet createnew econouric IGrowledgeof the ac&pted on25/71/96- pactsof possibledimate changeson water rcsourc€suray F Also Adiunct Professor,University of !{rbsternAustralia lia tne taking of objective and inforned decisionsabout VoI.2,No.7,7997 AustralianJwnal ol Wata Rrrourczr l "Estimation of climate impact on water availability and extremeevents for snow -frce..." -Schreider lakeman,Wheilon g pittock loss module which harrsforrns measurcd rainfall to excess or effective rainfall; and a linear module defined as a recur- sive relation at time step k (daily here) for modelled streamflow y*, calcrrlatedas a linear combination of its an- tecedentvalues and excessfainfall u*. c€rtainfy about the frequency of low rainfall events under climate change, it is probable that the intensity of laqge The non-linear loss module allows one to take into account rainfalls will increase with future global warminge. An the effect of antecedent weather conditions on the clrrrent analysis of potential changes in streamflow requires a spe-. status of catchment storag€ using a wetness index s*.Here cial effort in some MDDD basins. They are sensitive to mi- the exces rainfall u* is calculated from the measured pre- nor changes in their climatic forcing and show a high level cipitation r* (rainfall or rainfall equivalent of prccipitation) of flow variability. and temperatuie f* using the following recursive relations: Reviews of recent publications devoted to the analysis of sk=rklc + (1 -71 t,(t)) sr_, possible climate change impacb on streamflow can be found in Gleickrrrl Doogd, Fukushima et al.ro and kavesley'e. ur= rrGr + sr/2 (1) Most work related to the possible effecb of global warming on snow-affected regions is devoted to glacierised basins. r*(t)= qexpQlf-trfl The main cons€quenceof warming in these basins, where a huge ice pack has accumulated over thousands of years, is The constant c is calculated so that the volume of excess a dramatic increase in the melting of glaciers. This paper is rainfallis equal to the total streamflow for the period over relevant to theestimation of climaticimpace forBasins with which the model is calibrated. The parameters z" and/are a seasonal snowpack, and where only critical data inpub to be optimised. Catdrment storage or wetness index s* is also a very important "the on precipitation, temperature, elevation and stream dis- characteristic for interpretation of charge are available. snow melt/accumulation prlcesses. It reflecb the infiltra- tion capacity in the area: the higher it is, the lower is the The problem of which meteorological factors most affect infilhation level. ice and snowmelt proceses in different geographical rcgions The linear module and under different climate conditions was discussed in of IHACRES is defined as follows: Aizen and Aizenr. They concluded that the major dimatic - factor for continental regions, where the share of the solar ax=4tvrt azar-z+bnur+ b, ur-, radiation is more than 907oof the total heat balance, is shortwave radiation, whereas for regions with sbong oce- It implies that excessrainfall is considered to havel through two parallel storagesinterprcted anic influence, it is temperature. This conclusion accords as a quick and slow flow (In with our choice of a degreeday approach for the snow melt/ component of river discharge some caseswhere slow accumulation modelling in the present work, because the flow is negligible one storage may suffice). The calibration procedure for study region has primarily oceanic climate. the linear module is based on the Simple Re. trhriable fined Instrumental technique described in Jakeman at al. [13]. The rainfall-runoff model has 6 parameters to be estimated during the calibration procedure t,, f, a, a, bn and Duwith c determined directly by equating the volume of effective rainfall with dischaqge over the calibration pe- riod. Snow melt/accumulationprc,cesseswere taken into account for the snow-affected area of the Kiewa and Mitta-Mitta catchments.A spatially dishibuted snow melt/accumula- tion module based on the modified degree-day approach 12 The model was used to convert measured rainfall to equivalent pre- cipitation, which was used as an input to the IHACRES model.Adetailed description of this module The conceptual rainfall-runoff model IHACRES (Identifi- was presented in Schreider et al.z. caHon of Hydrographs And Components from Rainfall, EvaporaHon and Streamflow data) was developed at the The model's rcliability is illushated by the CenEe for Reourre and Environmental Studies at the Aus- accuracy of the results obtained under historic conditions for the Goulburn, balian National University and the Institute of Hydrology, Ovens, Kiewa and Mitta-Mitta catchments. The absolute UK. It is described in lakeman et al.r3 and Jakeman and relative errors for a long-term validation (10 to 30 years Hornbergerr{. Worldwide applications of rainfall- de. pending on the basin) on independent sfteamflow modelling with IHACRES in catchmenb of dif- daily stream dis- charge data were 1Vo for the Upper Goulbum, ferent size, and under various climatic conditions, can be 8Zo for the lpwer Goulbum, SVofor the Ovens, 7Vo for the Kiewa and found, for instance,in Jakemanet al.r5J6,Post et al.r and Ye 72Vofor the Mitta-Mitta catchmenls6'z'2. et al.t$. The results of calibration and validation of the IHACRES model in the essentially snow-free Goulburn and Daily time series of climate data Ovens Basins can be found in
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