North CENTRAL Victorian Climate: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RO G ER N. JONES Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, PO Box 14428, Melbourne, Victoria 8001. Email:
[email protected] JONES , R.N., 2010. North central Victorian climate: past, present and future. Proceedings of the Royal Soci- ety of Victoria 122(2): 147-160. ISSN 0035-9211. North central Victoria has experienced significant natural climate change over the past 20 000 years. At the height of the last ice age, the region was colder by 5°C or more with uplands and slopes under sub- alpine vegetation. Modern vegetation patterns were not established until the early Holocene. The first half of the Holocene was wetter than today, while the second half was affected by a less stable climate influ- enced by a strengthening El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Climate immediately prior to European occupation may have been wetter than during the historical period. Thus the pre-European climate and land surface influences on regional water balance may have been different to that which is generally assumed. Climate during the historical period was statistically homogenous, but with drier and wetter periods. Modest warm- ing began in the mid 20th century, by about 0.4°C per century from 1950 to 1996. From 1997, maximum temperature has undergone a significant upward step change (p<0.01) of 0.9°C. Rainfall has decreased by 19%, with May–October rainfall undergoing a significant (p=0.05) downward step change from 2000. Maximum temperature is now non-stationary with respect to rainfall and is experiencing an upward trend consistent with climate model projections.