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Techsurveillance TechSurveillance Solar Leasing and Solar PPA Programs: The Increase in Residential Photovoltaic Solar Deployment NOVEMBER 2013 This article explores the basic business model and solar leasing program offered by SolarCity*—the largest, vertically-integrated, and only publicly traded solar leasing company at this time. It will compare leasing programs to the traditional method of purchasing a solar system outright, describe how SolarCity makes money, and break down the elements driving profits, such as high retail power rates, declining costs, tax credits, and net metering rules. Finally, this article will make a few suggestions to electric cooperatives on how to deal with the threat of loss of kWh sales and possible advantages of third-party partnerships. INTRODUCTION The solar industry has benefited for years from state and utility incentives, federal investment tax credit (ITC), accelerated depreciation, and generous net metering laws. In the latest quarterly report published by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (www.seia.org/research-resources/us-solar-market-insight-q1-2013), PV solar installations totaled 723 MW in Q1 2013, up 33 percent over Q1 2012, giving the U.S. a PV solar operating capacity of 7,962 MW—a 60 percent increase from two years ago. Despite the likelihood that these incentives will be less valuable over the coming years, GTM/SEIA forecast a strong 30 percent annual growth rate in solar installations through 2016 (see Figure 1). * There are a number of companies offering solar leasing across the United States, including Citizenre, BrightGrid, Sun Run, Vivint, SunEdison, and SunPower. Each company’s offerings vary based on geographic operations, target consumers, length of lease, and business model. NRECA does not have a position on any particular solar leasing company. This article was written to provide NRECA member co-ops with the best information available at this time to support technology business decisions. nreca members only Solar Leasing and Solar PPA Programs: The Increase in Residential Photovoltaic Solar Deployment | 2 10,000 9,186 9,000 8,000 7,045 7,000 6,000 5,306 5,000 4,375 4,000 3,328 3,000 Installed Capacity (MW dc) (MW Capacity Installed 2,000 1,890 1,000 848 0 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Source: GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (U.S. Solar Market Insight: Q1 2013) FIGURE 1: U.S. PV Installation Forecast, 2010–2016E The government incentives are not the whole Although customers can buy a SolarCity solar story for why solar is booming. One recent project outright, more than 90 percent choose development that accompanies the basic to finance the system in one of two ways. Cus- economic drivers of reduced system costs tomers can lease a system, paying SolarCity a and maturing distribution and sales networks fee for use of the system and benefiting from is the new leasing programs that allow residen- the economics of the system’s power produc- tial customers to build a solar array on their tion. Alternatively, the most popular option is homes at zero upfront cost, with only monthly for the customer to sign a power purchase payments. agreement (PPA) with SolarCity that specifies the initial price per kWh, annual price escalator, SOLARCITY’S BUSINESS MODEL FOR and terms of the agreement. The company also RESIDENTIAL PV SOLAR has small energy efficiency and electric vehicle SolarCity was founded in 2006 and has grown (EV) charging station businesses providing up- quickly to 3,000 employees operating in 14 sale revenues. states (AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TX, WA, DC). In December 2012, SolarCity As an example, a standard PPA would charge went public with an IPO offering price of $8.00 the homeowner around 13¢/kWh when they per share (ticker: SCTY, recent high $65.30). As had been paying 15¢/kWh to their utility. The they describe it, their primary business is to rate would escalate two or three percent per “sell energy.” They do this by offering a fully- year for a term of 20 years. Because the panels integrated service of solar system design, proj- have a usable life of approximately 30 years, ect permitting and management, installation, SolarCity could capture additional “renewal billing, performance monitoring, and most value” from years 21-30, depending on what importantly, project finance. the consumer chooses to do with the array. previous view Solar Leasing and Solar PPA Programs: The Increase in Residential Photovoltaic Solar Deployment | 3 SolarCity focuses on The consumers options are to upgrade to a investors, with investors seeking to own solar areas where utility new system, purchase the current system, ex- assets and capture returns through upfront rates are 15¢/kWh tend the current contract, or have the panels monetization of the tax credit. The ITC drops to removed. SolarCity sends a monthly statement 10 percent at the end of 2016. The other fed- or higher, but as similar to a utility bill to their customers, allows eral support is allowing accelerated deprecia- solar installation transfer of the PPA if the customer moves, and tion over six years rather than the actual useful costs decline, this covers all insurance and maintenance. life of 30 years, reducing tax exposure. threshold could likewise drop. It is believed that SolarCity currently focuses on There are many state policies that support solar; utility customers who pay an average of 15¢/kWh the most important are those that impact the or more for power, which is about 7.6 percent size of the addressable market for companies of the U.S. market in 2012, and anticipated to like SolarCity. These include renewable portfo- grow to 10 percent in 2016. State and federal lio standards (RPS), renewable energy certifi- incentives can drive down that cost threshold. cates, net energy metering, and third-party For example, SolarCity has a strong presence in ownership regulations. Washington, DC where retail rates are around 13¢/kWh and has a number of municipal PV The Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a incentives. If the cost of installing a solar sys- state-level regulation that mandates a certain State and federal tem declines, the generic threshold of 15¢/kWh level of energy production from renewable incentives and will also decline, increasing SolarCity’s address- energy sources. Nationally, 30 states (including Washington, DC) have RPS mandates in place. policies have able market. In October of 2013, SolarCity pur- California’s 33 percent RPS target for 2020 a significant chased ZEP Solar, a provider of solar mounting systems, for $158 million to address this issue. stands out, given the aggressiveness of the tar- impact on the Overall, SolarCity economics improve from get and the size of California’s economy. A solar attractiveness of lower system-installed cost per watt and lower renewable energy certificate (SREC) is created solar projects. cost of capital. when a unit of solar power is produced, and can either be sold together with the power or The Role of Government Incentives sold separately. Seven states plus Washington, and Policies DC have SREC markets, with Massachusetts The economics for SolarCity projects, or indeed having recently displaced New Jersey as the any PV solar projects, would not be as attractive most robust. SolarCity owns any SREC credit without various state and federal incentives as part of its PPA with the customer. and policies. There are two primary forms of federal support, both of which are purely finan- The issue of third-party ownership rules hinges cial. The first is the investment tax credit (ITC), on the definition of an electric utility, and in which allows owners of a solar power genera- some states only utilities are allowed to sell tion system to reduce their federal tax liability power generation. This means that, in some by an amount equal to 30 percent of the pur- states, a company like SolarCity would have to chase cost of the system. The ITC is available to register as a utility for each solar project it owned, individuals, commercial buyers, and institutional making it difficult or impossible to operate in Solar Leasing and Solar PPA Programs: The Increase in Residential Photovoltaic Solar Deployment | 4 that state. There are six states, mostly in the Southeast, that explicitly don’t allow third-party ownership. Twenty states explicitly allow third- RI: May be limited to certain sectors party ownership, and the rules are unclear for DC UT: Limited to the remaining states. SolarCity only operates in VA: See notes certain sectors states that allow third-party ownership. States AZ: Limited to that don’t allow third-party ownership do so certain sectors because of state retail restructuring and the associated complications. (See Figure 2.) Puerto Rico Authorized by state or otherwise currently in use, For more information, please see Appendix A. at least in certain jurisdictions within the state At Least 22 states Apparently disallowed by state or otherwise and Washington, DC and Net energy metering, often referred to as “net restricted by legal barriers Puerto Rico Authorize Status unclear or unknown or Allow Third-Party metering,” allows owners of small solar energy Note: This map is intended to serve as an unofficial guide; it does not constitute Solar PV Purchase facilities that sit “behind-the-meter” to receive legal advice. Seek qualified legal expertise before making binding financial Power Agreements decisions related to a third-party PPA. credit at the retail electricity rate for excess solar power production. Effectively, the cus- FIGURE 2: Third-Party Solar PV Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), tomer’s meter flows in the normal way when February 2013. Source: DSIRE www.dsireusa.org/summarymaps/ the customer uses more power than their solar index.cfm?ee=0&RE=0 energy facility produces, but flows backwards when the solar power facility produces more IOWA COURT SIDES WITH THIRD-PARTY SOLAR power than the customer uses.
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